Flight MH370 Speculation

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

The US does not have god-like power yet, to track aircraft on the other side of the world that apparently didn't want to be tracked.

Nor does it have the power to remotely control foreign owned airliners, for reasons explained here.

[URL="https://www.metabunk.org/threads/mh370-debunked-image-of-plane-over-andaman-islands-on-mapbox-map.3304/#post-101057"]MH370: Debunked: Image of plane over Andaman Islands on Mapbox Map[/URL]

It is frankly ridiculous to suggest that US satellite surveillance a) stops at its own borders, and b) is stumped by planes that "don't want to be tracked".

Remote control of jets is technologically feasible, and would be highly valuable to governments - so much so that its development would be kept secret, lest the capability fall into the wrong hands. To assign this theory zero probability - especially given the proven lies with which this investigation has misdirected the search - is to wilfully drive one's head into the sand.

 

[Mick West]

It is frankly ridiculous to suggest that US satellite surveillance a) stops at its own borders, and b) is stumped by planes that "don't want to be tracked".

Remote control of jets is technologically feasible, and would be highly valuable to governments - so much so that its development would be kept secret, lest the capability fall into the wrong hands. To assign this theory zero probability - especially given the proven lies with which this investigation has misdirected the search - is to wilfully drive one's head into the sand.

Please stop representing your own opinions as fact. "Proven lies" could well be errors, and your speculation about the capability of US satellites is just that.

 

[BombDr]

This made me think of something....the GPS network was originally devised by the U.S. military (**), but now is (somewhat) "open-sourced" to be used by virtually anyone on the planet.

(** Interesting side-bar. It was the launch of the Soviet satellite "Sputnik", and the efforts of some "nerds" who wanted to learn more about it...they devised a way to use the Doppler Effect of its radio transmission "beeps", and eventually calculated its orbital path. THEN, the pre-DARPA...aka, a faction of the U.S. military...approached them, and asked if this could be done in reverse. The thinking was, submarines at sea needed to know exactly where they were, in the case they had to launch missiles. Eventually, the concept of GPS was born....late 1950s. There was a full and fascinating story on NPR the other day....can't find the link, sorry).

GPS technology is just about, now, commonplace in most commercial airliners. But, is one-way..."receive-only".

The future (circa 2020-2025?) of Air Traffic Control technology will need to utilize GPS technology, and there will be a need to have "two-way" ability.

This is the concept of "Free Flight", and it will evolve over the upcoming decades. Likely in ways that we have yet to predict, as technological advances continue.

I think this might be a "cap" here, or at least a "split" point, because I realize it is so off-topic. Not even debunkable.....

ETA...a link to "GuyRaz" related to my narrative, above, about the Sputnik contribution to the development of modern GPS:

Well Whacker, if you can think of a way to adapt the GPS network to a 24Hr, all-weather, day/night aircraft/boat/drone tracker then I'll go halves with you, as I imagine the chap that can figure that out will be unlikely to sit in coach ever again....!

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

I agree. NACS, I to am struggling to find the relevance of your questions. This situation is unprecedented and all the applicable agencies have been struggling since day 1 to make sense of it.

I have been around long enough to appreciate the value of the saying, "when faced with the choice between a conspiracy and "$&@¥ up", go with the "$&@¥ up" every time". I believe this holds true in this case.

Yesterday I flew with a first officer who used to work in the satellite industry and knew quite a lot about the details of the Inmarsat data. He expressed doubts over the data by saying that the frequency discrimination required to make some of the measurements was akin to requiring the autoflight system on our aircraft to hold our altitude to with 3 mm. His knowledge of the system caused him to severely doubt that was possible.

The investigating team have been required to make the data from a communications system into a navigation system. They are jury rigging this as they go along and have been forced to go back, look at data from inaccurate sources such as the Malaysian Primary radars and adjust their conclusions accordingly.

I see absolutely no evidence of a conspiracy. I see an investigation without a blueprint to work from and that is why it has made errors. The errors have been made in good faith.

Your assumptions about some nefarious role by the US ,IMHO, reveal a bias that you should examine.

Had they been honest, I would not be asking such pointed questions, nor contemplating such theories.

When a suspect lies during questioning, the cops charge him with the big crime. That usually gets them to admit to the lesser crime.

You are "good cop", TWC, and hope for the best. Perhaps it's true I'm "bad cop", here - but if I fear the worst, it's only because my prime suspect has been caught lying about its justification for launching an all out assault on an innocent nation, and as such has lost my trust.

Help me exonerate the suspect, TWC: what are the answers to my 5 simple questions?

 

[TWCobra]

Remote control of jets is technologically feasible

Technically feasible, yes. Practically feasible, highly unlikely.

Pilots, maintainers, ATC, would have to know.

Boeing is not the only aircraft manufacturer either. More than half of the worlds airliners are made by Airbus. Are you saying the French would allow their airliners to be potentially remotely controlled by US intelligence/security agencies? If not what would be the point of having only Boeing aircraft fitted with this system?

No airline would allow fitment of such as system, especially non-US airlines.

You underestimate the capabilities of pilots and the lengths they would take to regain control of an aircraft that was being remotely piloted against their will. I won't describe possible means here.

By the time MH370 crashed the US government, like everyone else, would have been unaware of where it was. To say that they have the capability to instantaneously scan nearly an entire hemisphere at will is succumbing to a bad fiction fantasy. The sort of surveillance capabilities depicted in movies and TV shows like "24", where a real time close up video feed can be summoned at will at any point of the globe, is one such fantasy.

 

[TWCobra]

what are the answers to my 5 simple questions

Your questions are not simple to someone not involved in the investigation. I suggest you go to the appendices of the latest report. There is information there.

 

[WeedWhacker]

exactly, the ACARS was turned off first and only then "something happened"

No, this is not the case.

 

[Jason]

Does anyone know what the appropriate response or action the Malaysian Government (military) should've taken when the ACARS was turned off? I remember reading that it was turned off right as it was approaching Vietnam's ATC, could this have contributed to the confusion.

Another question I have is if the plane flew low to avoid radar, then how were the able to track it on radar? If the plane showed up on Malaysian radar, what should've been Malaysia's response. Does their government actually use their own facilities to monitor radar, or do they leave it up to ATC in the middle of the night or during weekends or what have you.

 

[TWCobra]

Does anyone know what the appropriate response or action the Malaysian Government (military) should've taken when the ACARS was turned off?

Nothing. It is a data link.

 

[BombDr]

It is frankly ridiculous to suggest that US satellite surveillance a) stops at its own borders, and b) is stumped by planes that "don't want to be tracked".

Remote control of jets is technologically feasible, and would be highly valuable to governments - so much so that its development would be kept secret, lest the capability fall into the wrong hands. To assign this theory zero probability - especially given the proven lies with which this investigation has misdirected the search - is to wilfully drive one's head into the sand.

No-one claimed it was ridiculous that the US surveillance stops at the US border, but it is even more ridiculous to suggest that it is ubiquitous. If it was as good as you perceive it to be, then I really was wasting some really good jet fuel sending planes up to do reconnaissance missions in Afghanistan.

Secondly, your satellite assertion fails to account for the surveillance satellites that do not belong or controlled by the US, and many of which are not best buddies with the US, have interests in finding the plane and would welcome the opportunity to embarrass the US, as they seem to be your only suspect.

Finally, I don't think anyone claimed the technology was not possible to take over a jet, but there certainly is no evidence of it yet, and as many have already pointed out, there are much easier method to take the jet, with a proven track record of success. The locked cockpit doors are as good as the crews bladder capacity. (Whacker and Cobra, tell me you guys are not yet en-suite...?)

 

[Jason]

Nothing. It is a data link.

So it's two seperate occurances on that night then. 1. MH370's ACARS was shut off, but no one knew about. Malaysian officials and ATC didn't even know the plane was missing and for all intensive purposes they believed the plane was still in route (but it never crossed their minds to think otherwise). 2. An unknown plane with no transponder appeared on radar shortly after MH370 transponder shut off (but they didn't know MH370's transponder was turned off at the time). So the question is why they didn't do anything at the time with this unknown radar signature that flew towards their borders and over their country. The two had nothing to do with one another on that night, from their perspective, Right?

 

[Miles Bloomer]

Has this been mentioned? If not, I feel it could lead to more theories. http://www.independent.ie/world-new...ctised-landing-on-remote-island-30375703.html

THE pilot of the missing Malaysian Airlines plane which disappeared in March with 239 people on board had plotted a flight path to a remote island in the southern Indian Ocean where the search is now focused, investigators have discovered. - See more at: http://www.independent.ie/world-new...ote-island-30375703.html#sthash.w5brwzFn.dpuf

 

[TWCobra]

(Whacker and Cobra, tell me you guys are not yet en-suite...?

The A380 has a flight deck toilet and so does the 747. It depends on the configuration ordered by the airline however.

Miles, that was mentioned. The island has not been identified however, and there are none where the aircraft apparently crashed.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

So it's two seperate occurances on that night then. 1. MH370's ACARS was shut off, but no one knew about. Malaysian officials and ATC didn't even know the plane was missing and for all intensive purposes they believed the plane was still in route (but it never crossed their minds to think otherwise). 2. An unknown plane with no transponder appeared on radar shortly after MH370 transponder shut off (but they didn't know MH370's transponder was turned off at the time). So the question is why they didn't do anything at the time with this unknown radar signature that flew towards their borders and over their country. The two had nothing to do with one another on that night, from their perspective, Right?

it's questionable what they saw that night, judging by this radar picture the aircraft started climbing(after a low-level flight) west of Penang and that was when it appeared on the radar

http://imgur.com/xTa3tbq

Has this been mentioned? If not, I feel it could lead to more theories. http://www.independent.ie/world-new...ctised-landing-on-remote-island-30375703.html

an old story

The A380 has a flight deck toilet and so does the 747. It depends on the configuration ordered by the airline however.

Miles, that was mentioned. The island has not been identified however, and there are none where the aircraft apparently crashed.

how close to island apparently? Have they searched ~50 mile circles of all reachable islands supposing the pilot could have intention to land there but failing for various reasons? Such was a situation with 1996 ethiopian hijack so not that uncommon.

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

...the US, as they seem to be your only suspect.

They are far from being my only suspect - just a likely culprit, given their hand in the evidence/investigation, and given the location (and known reputation) of Diego Garcia.

There's a claim going around (a claim I do not make, for the record) that, as long as a smartphone is in a room, the conversations in that room are being recorded...somewhere. I expect US military surveillance to include at least in part a reliance on metadata - information not available "live", but nonetheless data which is recorded, and accessible for data mining purposes. Planes going missing - anywhere on this planet - will be a VERY high priority for the US military. Their claim of having no clue where MH370 went just rings hollow, to me.

 

[WeedWhacker]

The A380 has a flight deck toilet and so does the 747.

I've been on flights when I have looked at the clock :


(we start the clock at the beginning of the Take-Off) and thought to myself, "I've sat here for 4 or 5 hours, and yet not gotten up to pee!!".

(EDIT: You probably don't want to know this, but it's because we are SO busy for all of those hours...yeah, airline pilots are very, very busy, all of the time....crossword puzzles....cough....we are very attentive).

 

[Jason]

it's questionable what they saw that night, judging by this radar picture the aircraft started climbing(after a low-level flight) west of Penang and that was when it appeared on the radar
http://imgur.com/xTa3tbq

I'm sorry for sounding ignorant, but can someone explain this to me. The circle for starters after VAMPI. Are the yellow traces the radar track for MH370, and how can anyone tell what is going on with respect to this photo.

 

[jonnyH]

well Filipinos are even worse but that doesn't make Malaysia good

No but its hard to assert that merely being Malaysian is a reasonable grounds for a claim to asylum when the Malaysian authorities have been working with UNHCR since the '70s to support refugees from other countries. It is not that bad.

Any asylum claim from the pilot would have to be based on a well founded fear of persecution specific to him. If for instance he was about to be arrested and detained for purely political reasons and had some form of evidence to support this he might have a chance, you however seem to be relying on the idea that Malaysia is generally corrupt which is not enough even if true.

you do make some valid points but US would rather see Snowden hijacking 10 planes one by one than doing what he has done, which is basically a treason

What the US would rather see is irrelevant. Snowden sought asylum in Russia. From Russia's perspective he has not committed a crime but will be treated as a traitor by the US authorities if returned. This amounts to persecution from the Russian POV and that is what is important here.

if Captain succeeded in his mission, the australian government would be under pressure and they couldn't let him back in Malaysia because he would probably face a death penalty

More likely the Aussies would obtain assurances from the Malaysian authorities that the death penalty would not be sought, then he would be sent back. Thats what we (UK) did with Abu Qatada in order to send him back to Jordan.

 

[BombDr]

They are far from being my only suspect - just a likely culprit, given their hand in the evidence/investigation, and given the location (and known reputation) of Diego Garcia.

There's a claim going around (a claim I do not make, for the record) that, as long as a smartphone is in a room, the conversations in that room are being recorded...somewhere. I expect US military surveillance to include at least in part a reliance on metadata - information not available "live", but nonetheless data which is recorded, and accessible for data mining purposes. Planes going missing - anywhere on this planet - will be a VERY high priority for the US military. Their claim of having no clue where MH370 went just rings hollow, to me.

Well firstly, Im sure the US news is plugging the story in the framework of how they are contributing to the investigation and how many geeky aviation experts they are sending to Asia to assist. In the UK we have the same issue with the emphasis being Rolls Royce and Inmarsat, and no end of ex-pilots and talking heads giving their tuppance worth. No doubt Australia will emphasise their contribution with Malaysia and China doing the same. My point: I'm not sure what your sources of information are, but I'd be cautious in judging who exactly is running the show, and news is never a good weather vane on proportional fact.

Secondly - you are half-right about the phones, in that in certain circumstances your phone could be switched on without your knowledge and used as a bug, but that requires a signal, which the passengers of MH370 did not have.

Your assertion and opinion of the US surveillance capabilities do seem a bit exaggerated though. Like I said, they have a lot of assets looking over Afghanistan 24hrs a day, and still we need more information. Very little happens in the southern Indian ocean, so no reason to actually look for things there constantly.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

NACS you just watch a lot of movies. The US in reality is nowhere near capable as presented(yet they still are far more capable than others).

I'm sorry for sounding ignorant, but can someone explain this to me. The circle for starters after VAMPI. Are the yellow traces the radar track for MH370, and how can anyone tell what is going on with respect to this photo.

yellow traces are the radar track, VAMPI and MEKAR are two waypoints you can easily find on www.skyvector.com, the plane most probably passed somewhere aroud Penang(VPG) going from east to west(actually NW), then started climbing and you could see the start of yellow trace when it came to altitude visible to radar, then again the "empty" space between yellow track could be that it for some reason went again to lower altitude and started climbing again before VAMPI

No but its hard to assert that merely being Malaysian is a reasonable grounds for a claim to asylum when the Malaysian authorities have been working with UNHCR since the '70s to support refugees from other countries. It is not that bad.

Any asylum claim from the pilot would have to be based on a well founded fear of persecution specific to him. If for instance he was about to be arrested and detained for purely political reasons and had some form of evidence to support this he might have a chance, you however seem to be relying on the idea that Malaysia is generally corrupt which is not enough even if true.


What the US would rather see is irrelevant. Snowden sought asylum in Russia. From Russia's perspective he has not committed a crime but will be treated as a traitor by the US authorities if returned. This amounts to persecution from the Russian POV and that is what is important here.


More likely the Aussies would obtain assurances from the Malaysian authorities that the death penalty would not be sought, then he would be sent back. Thats what we (UK) did with Abu Qatada in order to send him back to Jordan.

merely Malaysian no, but Malaysian who is ready to "divert" a plane for a political reason certainly yes

I'm convinced being a traitor is punishable in Russia as well as in USA, the same way being a hijacker is punishable in Malaysia as well as in Australia

again, it could be the pilot "only" mocking the RMAF and realising that it's not smart for him to go back so the decision of going to Australia(or committing suicide or trying to get to space whatever you think is more probable) was brought in flight

 

[Jason]

NACS you just watch a lot of movies. The US in reality is nowhere near capable as presented(yet they still are far more capable than others).



yellow traces are the radar track, VAMPI and MEKAR are two waypoints you can easily find on www.skyvector.com, the plane most probably passed somewhere aroud Penang(VPG) going from east to west(actually NW), then started climbing and you could see the start of yellow trace when it came to altitude visible to radar, then again the "empty" space between yellow track could be that it for some reason went again to lower altitude and started climbing again before VAMPI



merely Malaysian no, but Malaysian who is ready to "divert" a plane for a political reason certainly yes

I'm convinced being a traitor is punishable in Russia as well as in USA, the same way being a hijacker is punishable in Malaysia as well as in Australia

again, it could be the pilot "only" mocking the RMAF and realising that it's not smart for him to go back so the decision of going to Australia(or committing suicide or trying to get to space whatever you think is more probable) was brought in flight

So is this map an accurate radar portrayal of where MH370 flew on the night it went missing?

 

[jonnyH]

merely Malaysian no, but Malaysian who is ready to "divert" a plane for a political reason certainly yes

I say "merely malaysian" because all you have offered to support this assertion are your opinion that Malaysia is "a dictatorship" rife with corruption which were it true (which it is not) would apply equally to all Malaysians. What marks the pilot out as distinct from any other Malaysian and puts him at risk of persecution?

I know you have mentioned a link to Anwar Ibrahim and his political woes, but as I pointed out this situation does not appear to carry any urgency. Anwar is out on bail pending appeal and has won two similar appeals in the past. Being associated with a hijacking will not help him.

Hijacking a plane would not assist the pilots asylum claim either. Its a crime, a serious one at that, see point 9 of the information posted earlier. The situation in Malaysia would have to be something like North Korea for such a crime to be proportionate, even then I have my doubts.

I'm convinced being a traitor is punishable in Russia as well as in USA, the same way being a hijacker is punishable in Malaysia as well as in Australia

Yes but Russia only punishes traitors to Russia. Snowden isn't Russian and hasn't exposed any of their surveillance programs so how could they possibly consider him to have broken any of their laws?

 

[ConspiracyAtheist]

TWCobra, or someone else familiar with the systems, could you go over what the procedure would be for a pilot, or for a passenger to create the power failure that's said to have occurred on MH370. For example, where would the pilot have to go to open up the bus-tie breakers and open up the battery control switch. What would have to occur in order for this to happen?

 

[Jason]

I say "merely malaysian" because all you have offered to support this assertion are your opinion that Malaysia is "a dictatorship" rife with corruption which were it true (which it is not) would apply equally to all Malaysians. What marks the pilot out as distinct from any other Malaysian and puts him at risk of persecution?

I know you have mentioned a link to Anwar Ibrahim and his political woes, but as I pointed out this situation does not appear to carry any urgency. Anwar is out on bail pending appeal and has won two similar appeals in the past. Being associated with a hijacking will not help him.

Hijacking a plane would not assist the pilots asylum claim either. Its a crime, a serious one at that, see point 9 of the information posted earlier. The situation in Malaysia would have to be something like North Korea for such a crime to be proportionate, even then I have my doubts.


Yes but Russia only punishes traitors to Russia. Snowden isn't Russian and hasn't exposed any of their surveillance programs so how could they possibly consider him to have broken any of their laws?

I agree, Asylum while seeking to embarrass his country just doesn't make any sense. The whole goal of asylum is to succeed and be able to live in another country without fear of prosecution from your own country. Embarrassing Malaysia can be done just as easily with your mouth. A pilot of his stature could've easily seeked asylum in AU, and then got in touch with the media to discuss his asylum. He could've discussed the countries laxed military and radar capabilities just as easily. Risking the lives of 239 people, including himself, to seek asylum would've defeated his purpose and he would've been the victim of negative press. Which would've argued against his "cause or intentions". Flying a commerical airliner low over a country to avoid radar, while skirting the borders of another nation is irresponsible. What if the Malaysian government or Indonesian government saw the commercial airliner as a threat and proceeded to take it out with a SAM. How would that have helped his situation? Sure it might embarrass Malaysia or Indonesia at first, but after the investigation determines that he was a terrorist we can all imagine how he would be portrayed in the press. So I doubt asylum while trying to embarrass his country was his motive

 

[TWCobra]

TWCobra, or someone else familiar with the systems, could you go over what the procedure would be for a pilot, or for a passenger to create the power failure that's said to have occurred on MH370. For example, where would the pilot have to go to open up the bus-tie breakers and open up the battery control switch. What would have to occur in order for this to happen?

Sorry guys, I am bowing out of this thread until something solid comes along. Get back to me when the "MH370 wreckage found" thread becomes active.

 

[ConspiracyAtheist]

Sorry guys, I am bowing out of this thread until something solid comes along. Get back to me when the "MH370 wreckage found" thread becomes active.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

[Mick West]

This thread will be closed later today. It has devolved into wild speculation far beyond what is warranted by the evidence. This is not consistent with the site guidelines.

 

[ConspiracyAtheist]

You could just change the name of the thread with the word "wild" at the beginning