Drones over New Jersey?

[Z.W. Wolf]

Kyle Ferriter

One of the most frequently posted videos from this recent "new jersey drones" flap is the one that sort of looks like it makes an impossibly tight right turn in the air. The craft looks like a plane but the claim that it cant be (and might be an advanced drone, or who knows what) comes from the apparent rapid turn that no plane with alive humans on it could do. But it's a simple illusion caused by perspective changes as the person holding the camera turns to follow the plane as it goes by. It makes no rapid turn.

I demonstrated this effect with a very rough quick demo with my dji drone in my living room. But today I think I got a pretty good demo with an actual plane:

Thanks.

An example of compounding errors. The witness reports that the mystery drone made this impossible maneuver, or someone who saw the video "sees" this maneuver. Then in the written lore it becomes a fact. Someone reads about it and imagines a sudden 90 degree turn at G-forces that would kill a human.

An unlikely maneuver, for an airliner, is reported in the video I've been talking about.

The witnesses:

Male voice: Look, look, look!
Female voice: Is he getting lower?
MV: Yeah

It's not "getting lower". That's just perspective. This is something we've come across before. It's hard to believe an adult is not familiar with how receding aerial objects appear to get lower to the horizon due to perspective... but there it is.

But in the lore, that this mystery drone was making this sudden maneuver could become fact. And the maneuver will become much more dramatic through the process of compounding errors. "Explain to me how an airliner can suddenly go into a 90 degree nose dive! Clearly not a plane!"

And seconds later in the video, another feature that proves it can't be an airliner...

It's got rotors above the lights!

Wow. Talk about expectations affecting perception. Rotors? Where?

But the witness perception could be taken literally and exaggerated in the retelling. Airliners clearly don't have rotors... but drones do. Checkmate, Mr. Skeptic.


It's possible that this video is a goof. They talk about a Southwest Airlines tail there at the end. It's always hard to tell a Poe. But people certainly are eating it up.

 

[Mendel]

And it's hard to find extensive examples of the lighting that exists on all kinds of aircraft, and across all airlines with their additional lighting decisions like additional side or tail lights. Of course cataloguing all this is a lot of work and won't convince people who strongly want to believe otherwise.

Which is why it's preferable to get accurate time/date/location data and identify the aircraft via flight tracking.

 

[Mendel]

But the witness perception could be taken literally and exaggerated in the retelling. Airliners clearly don't have rotors... but drones do. Checkmate, Mr. Skeptic.

"Do you claim the witness is lying?!"

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Let's not neglect the other source of mystery drone sightings: bright stars and planets. People are afraid of them.


This YT comment is recent.

I'm seeing these drones in Queens, NYC for months now. I feel like I'm being stalked because they seem to follow me around wherever I go.

I see them every night when it's clear outside. There are several of them out there and they seem to move in a certain pattern.. usually in a counterclockwise direction. Some of them have red blinking lights and some display other colors too.

Some of them may even seem stationary at first, and you'll be tricked into thinking it's a very bright star or planet, but upon closer observation you realize it's not because it's located in the atmosphere and it eventually moves or changes position.

The more you observe these things the more they will creep you out. Some weird things are happening in the skies above us and I think some of us may be targeted as test subjects.

The government knows what's going on. I think it's some form of experimental surveillance program.

This comment string is from the still active comment section of a YT video from 2020 about the Colorado Drone Flap:

@johnnyboy2271
1 year ago
I've got tons of videos of drones over my house all night every night and following me while driving like that. Big bright drones.

@GiGi_Piper
1 year ago
They are harassing me too! It's been awful.


@GiGi_Piper
1 year ago (edited)
@neshwanashwell9899 I'm afraid to tell people around me because many people just think I'm crazy I know what is happening to me though and I know what I saw that day and I know what I'm seeing now.

@Alicia-h5z
1 year ago
Same here . I am in Michigan.

@Gideon-f5q
11 months ago
Ugh they are everywhere. It's now illegal to even shine a laser at them


@jimjackson8171
1 month ago
Next time you notice a drone following you a laser pointer 1.5 blue laser point it at the drones sometimes if you hit the camera you can take it out and it flys back to the source of its frequency thats what I do


@michaelpayne9508
6 days ago
Stop recording us

I've seen many others like this. People see bright stars and planets every night. They are followed even while driving in a car, because of the well known parallax effect. And so on. It's a growing shared paranoid delusion.

Much akin to, or even overlapping, the "targeted individual" thing.

These astronomical bodies are not always identified as drones. They may be called disco ball stars, pseudo-stars, orbs... or whatnot. Or, of course, alien spaceships.

 

[psikiwi]

I've been spending too much time on Reddit this morning...

The comments are horrifying. "that's within duck shooting range, break out the 12 bore", "Shine a laser at them", "a few rounds should hit that" type comments.

Note: no supporting citations, as I only access Reddit on my phone, and Metabunk on my laptop. Not tech savvy enough to cross populate....

It's a flap, but one that has grown wings!

 

[tjskep]

I've been spending too much time on Reddit this morning...

The comments are horrifying. "that's within duck shooting range, break out the 12 bore", "Shine a laser at them", "a few rounds should hit that" type comments.

Note: no supporting citations, as I only access Reddit on my phone, and Metabunk on my laptop. Not tech savvy enough to cross populate....

It's a flap, but one that has grown wings!

...Shooting at planes now that is mass hysteria!

 

[jarlrmai]

I would hope no-one goes that far, the laser pointers seems more likely and is worrying as they can affect pilot vision, especially helicopter pilots.

 

[JMartJr]

I would hope no-one goes that far, the laser pointers seems more likely and is worrying as they can affect pilot vision, especially helicopter pilots.

If one feels comfortable doing so, it is probably worth commenting in reply to such suggestions that not only is pointing a laser at an aircraft dangerous, it is also illegal and can result in a hefty fine.

Pointing a laser at an aircraft is a federal crime. U.S. law enforcement agencies and the Federal Aviation Administration may seek criminal and civil prosecution against violators.
People who shine lasers at aircraft face FAA fines of up to $11,000 per violation and up to $30,800 for multiple laser incidents. The FAA issued $120,000 in fines for laser strikes in 2021.

Source: https://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/lasers

Example of why pointing a laser at an aircraft is a bad idea:

Image source: https://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/lasers

News story video showing including the arrest of the perpetrators:
Source: https://youtu.be/EnBTAxCI804


When laser light hits an aircraft's windscreen, tiny scratches and dirt spread the light out even more, causing glare around the beam center. The result is that pilots do not see a small dot, they see a large glow similar to being in a flashlight or searchlight beam. It can be difficult or impossible to see through the glow.
Source: https://www.laserpointersafety.com/FAQ-doubters/FAQ-doubters.html
(looks like you have to follow the link to YT to see it, it won't embed, hopefully with everything else linked, this can be allowed -- here's a screen grab, at least.)

Also worth sharing with the CE5K folks who shine lasers at satellites, moths and, unfortunately, planes.

EDIT: Posted originally having neglected to include the screen shot for YouTube, now included.

 

[JWrightBrain]

Seriously. I never understood why UFO's would have collision lights. Why have lights at all? Surely they're not afraid that a commercial aircraft will collide with them.

 

[JMartJr]

Seriously. I never understood why UFO's would have collision lights. Why have lights at all? Surely they're not afraid that a commercial aircraft will collide with them.

The usual answer i see from UFO Believers us that they are trying to blend in and not be noticed. Why they care, or why they would not avoid notice more effectively by just not having lights, is not explained.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Let's remember that this is a mystery drone flap, not a flying saucer flap. Despite the increased interest in UFOs lately we haven't had a real flying saucer flap in decades.

We're getting many scattered UFO sightings, but not this kind of mass delusion where people in a local area are out scanning the skies at night and reporting hundreds of flying saucers.

These mystery drone flaps will give you young'uns a feel for what a classic flying saucer flap was really like.

I think we've switched from flying saucers to drones because drones seem less outlandish and retro. It's not Martians anymore. It's the military or the government or the Chinese. Seems less bizarre and up to date.

Still pretty bizarre, though.

 

[jarlrmai]

Flaps change with the ages to suit the current fears of the populace

Demons/Witches
Airships
UFOs
Monkey-man of Delhi
Drones

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

There's definitely a paranoid quality to this flap. Fear of surveillance. And a fear of foreign wonder weapons.

Early flying saucer flaps were also influenced by the fear of nuclear war or foreign wonder weapons. Especially in the late '40s and early '50s.

Later on, flying saucers became more associated with a positive, messianic "dawn of a new age" feeling. Or a sense of wonder. Our Space Brothers. But a paranoid quality remained.

Later in the '70s the Contactee thing became super icky. Aliens were weird sexual predators. Pretty similar to the Satanic Panic of the '80s.

 

[jdog]

So people will now be seeing the police drones that are up in response to reports of people seeing drones..

omg feedback loop

Yep, Droneception.

Like going Bigfoot hunting, but you hide in the bushes in your camo, and you keep hearing replies to your fake Bigfoot calls, but you do see some vague movement in the distant brush...

 

[John J.]

The usual answer i see from UFO Believers us that they are trying to blend in and not be noticed. Why they care, or why they would not avoid notice more effectively by just not having lights, is not explained.

It's a case of moving the goalposts. A witness has footage of white/ red/ green lights, some blinking at about 1-2 Hz, smoothly crossing the sky, and many people would conclude "That's likely to be a conventional aircraft."
By claiming (with of course no testable evidence) that UFOs/ mystery drones/ alien jalopies mimic standard aircraft lighting, the claims become unfalsifiable. A video of a perfectly normal, common sight becomes possible evidence of something else.

As a tactic for camouflaging drones it ignores the fact that, if they were considered worthy of serious attention, they would still be (1) not on a scheduled flightpath (2) detectable by radar- at least to some military AA assets (3) visible to some degree in IR.

I don't know, others here might, but I'd guess larger military drones/ UAVs carry IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) systems, described on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identification_friend_or_foe, so non-friendly forces machines would be identifiable as such.

The same "They're blending in" logic can be applied to almost any artefact; parked Volkswagen Beetles not owned by people you know could be passive monitoring stations, or worse, run by the Chinese/ MiB/ Cybermen/ pet-hunting immigrants.
Every unattended VW bug is evidence of something mysterious and/ or troubling; if the licence plate checks out it raises the question of the registering authorities- or some cell within- being part of the conspiracy.

Awareness of what's going on in the world, and a degree of alertness in some situations, is incumbent on us as adults I think; e.g. it's right to draw attention to unattended luggage in a railway station.
But imagining threats or strange encounters where none exists is not useful and can verge on pathology,

There's definitely a paranoid quality to this flap. Fear of surveillance. And a fear of foreign wonder weapons.

 

[jdog]

An example of compounding errors. The witness reports that the mystery drone made this impossible maneuver, or someone who saw the video "sees" this maneuver. Then in the written lore it becomes a fact. Someone reads about it and imagines a sudden 90 degree turn at G-forces that would kill a human.

That's also going on with the uncritical repetition of witness statement from law enforcement. Evesham police Chief Walt Miller told reporters that "someone described the drones as large as an SUV," which became "Drones the size of an SUV" reported by law enforcement on /reddit.

 

[Mendel]

I don't know, others here might, but I'd guess larger military drones/ UAVs carry IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) systems, described on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identification_friend_or_foe, so non-friendly forces machines would be identifiable as such.

IFF is a precursor of the civilian transponder (with the 4-digit "squawk") that has been developed into today's ADS-B etc.
Drones above a certain weight have to send ADS-B in civilian controlled airspace, that includes military drones. In fact, in the Ukraine war, US reconaissance drones just outside the border looking in were tracked that way.

 

[Ann K]

Later in the '70s the Contactee thing became super icky. Aliens were weird sexual predators.

There was a period where the stereotypical alien was a sexy succubus, a tall, silver-skinned Nordic blond woman, sort of a cross between a teenager's wet dream and a Sci-fi tale.

 

[John J.]

There was a period where the stereotypical alien was a sexy succubus, a tall, silver-skinned Nordic blond woman

Arguably the first abduction, as opposed to contactee, account came from a Brazilian man, Antonio Vilas Boas in October 1957. whose alien female contact had some of these features- supposedly very attractive, pale complexion, long platinum blonde hair and large blue eyes
(see Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antônio_Vilas-Boas). "Only" 5' (1.54 m) tall though.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Let's sort out a common misunderstanding. UFO flaps shouldn't be called mass hysteria. Mass delusion is the better term.

Mass hysteria has a more accepted term: mass psychogenic illness.
A classic example of mass hysteria: Rumors sweep through a high school dance that the punch has been tampered with. People start throwing up and fainting all over the gym.

Another: Someone smells what they think is natural gas. "There's a gas leak, everyone!" People start choking and fainting.

Most are not responding to the rumor, they are responding primarily to the physical symptoms of other people. The rumors are secondary.

There's nothing in the punch and no gas leak. But a phenomenon known as psychological contagion or emotional resonance is in play. People who are more attuned to the feelings of others start feeling the same way, and have actual physical symptoms. Other, more stolid folk, stand around looking at them wondering what the heck is going on.


Mass delusion involves large groups sharing a false belief, often rooted in social or cultural narratives. It influences behavior - in this case going out at night scanning the skies - and expectations. The expectations influence perception. People really do "see" flying saucers or mystery drones, because seeing is a personal experience created by the brain moment by moment.

"I know what I saw" is true in a way. They really did "see" a flying saucer while looking at Venus. And they really did "see" a mystery drone while looking at a mundane 737.

Mass delusion is not a diagnoses. It's a concept. It is not universally accepted, nor has it been formally defined by some professional body. Nevertheless I think it's a useful concept.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Just as in an outbreak of mass hysteria, only a portion of the population is going to be affected.

During a flap of any kind, there are people who are going to be more attuned to the false belief, while the largest part of the population, the more stolid folk, stand around wondering what the heck is going on.

The most attuned people are going to share certain personality traits. There's a small core of "superspreaders" - a majority of the reports will be generated and spread by this small core.

The superspreaders are aided and abetted by local news media who have a different agenda. The want a story to sell. So they "interview" the superspreaders. This interview is an uncritical fluff piece. Everything the superspreader says is uncritically accepted as fact.

Sometimes you get a convergence. A member of the local news media becomes a true believer. Then you get an ultra-spreader. Either way the "silly season" starts. The silly season is something like the "Summer of the Shark."

Later a more professional member of the media will come along and start doing more analytical, common sense stories. They'll be shouted down by the true believers. The more uncritical members of the media will be "skeptical" of the mass delusion explanation, citing that the witnesses are solid citizens who must have seen something "real." It's not "fair" to criticise (read as "insult") solid citizens, some of whom are police officers or pilots!

The more stolid folk - the majority - won't care either way and won't engage in the debate. They'll just turn to the sports section. (Read as "swipe left" in the current vernacular.)

And by the time the analytical stories start coming out, the flap is already dying a natural death.

The Great Colorado Drone Flap also started sometime in November and died in January. I expect the Great New Jersey Drone Flap will also die in January.



I wonder why both happened in winter... Could it be that only the most hard core beleivers are willing to stand outside at night? On the other hand, some superspreaders say they see these things through their window... Could this limited view have something to do with it? They're only catching glimpses of ordinary air traffic.

Others are just catching glimpses while driving...

 

[flarkey]

One thing that seems to be confusing people is the distance at which you can actually see aeroplanes. Big planes far away are being confused with small drones that are up close. Here's an example - this guy checks his FlightRadar24 and sees no planes nearby , but then looks up and sees six or seven 'drones' (planes) that are near the horizon (and therefore far away!). But he cant see them on his Flightradar24 map because he's really zoomed in on his location.

Source: https://x.com/DougSpac/status/1865964637537071127?t=-B4-Av2BF2C4CaB1SR--SQ&s=19

If he'd zoomed out on FlightRadar24 he would have seen that there were a lot more aircraft at a slightly greater distance away, and were at sufficient altitude to be seen....

https://www.flightradar24.com/2024-12-09/00:57/20x/40.59,-74.84/11

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Exactly. And that's an issue in the Ocean County Sheriff's Office Drone Patrol video. The witnesses assumed that the aircraft was six miles away and small, and flying low. But it was actually a much more distant airliner. They never examined their own assumption.

 

[jarlrmai]

Hopefully they'll come to realise what we have over the years

Just because its not on FR24 doesn't mean there wasn't a plane, ADSB-Ex might have it though (and vice versa)

and

Planes can be much further away than you think.

Next up, the cops spotting Starlink..

 

[Mendel]

Here's an example - this guy checks his FlightRadar24 and sees no planes nearby , but then looks up and sees six or seven 'drones' (planes) that are near the horizon (and therefore far away!). But he cant see them on his Flightradar24 map because he's really zoomed in on his location.

Doesn't the FR24 app have AR functionality, where you can point the camera at an aircraft and it'll tell you what it is?

 

[jarlrmai]

Doesn't the FR24 app have AR functionality, where you can point the camera at an aircraft and it'll tell you what it is?

It does on a phone, but the cops were using their rugged laptop

The AR is also dependent on decent internal compass calibration in your device.

 

[flarkey]

Doesn't the FR24 app have AR functionality, where you can point the camera at an aircraft and it'll tell you what it is?

It does, but even it includes a 'max visible distance' slider that is set by the user. If they zoom too far in they wont see far away aircarft.

Distance is controlled by the slider at the bottom right, and the circular map also zooms in/out depending on the range

 

[Trailblazer]

Here is one I have conclusively identified. United Airlines flight 1190, filmed over Boonton, NJ.

Original post: (Link)

Matches Rockaway Valley Elementary.

Time is reported as 5.30 and 5.35 on December 5, which is 22.30 and 22.35 UTC.

The planes are heading northeast and banking to the right. Which matches these two:

 

[jarlrmai]

And all because you got time and location.

You might want to add an update to the Facebook post?

How many could be solve if we got this? All of them?

 

[Trailblazer]

Another one posted in the same group. Fedex 721.

 

[Trailblazer]

And another. Filmed from the high school in Boonton.

This was a Gulfstream coming in to land at Morristown airport, seven miles to the south.

 

[Trailblazer]

From the same group. This is why an end needs to be put to this madness.

 

[JMartJr]

From the same group. This is why an end needs to be put to this madness.

View attachment 74238
View attachment 74239

I think I will invest some time this morning sending that to law enforcement offices and media in the area, with an appeal to stop feeding the flap before some idiot starts taking shots and planes. Along with a link to the debunks here where it is so obviously a plane.

 

[RTM]

From the same group. This is why an end needs to be put to this madness.

View attachment 74238
View attachment 74239

Regarding being "out of control ", is there an idea if interest/reports are decreasing or is it holding steady? I just wonder how this will go down in UFO lore: will it be looked back on as something anomalous or will people just move on to the next shiny thing on the internet?

 

[flarkey]

From the same group. This is why an end needs to be put to this madness.

View attachment 74238
View attachment 74239

And some people on reddit think the answer to having anomalous drones in the sky is to put more drones in the sky to investigate:


Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1ha7xy2/comment/m171mmq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

 

[Trailblazer]

Here is another. He says he saw four on a similar path in Delran NJ last night.

There were multiple planes on approach to Philadelphia taking similar looping routes at 3,000ft or so.

Very obviously a plane

And video located and compared to the flight track of American Airlines 1941 last night.

 

[MyMatesBrainwashed]

And some people on reddit think the answer to having anomalous drones in the sky is to put more drones in the sky to investigate:

Can't see the UAPs for the drones.

 

[Mendel]

And some people on reddit think the answer to having anomalous drones in the sky is to put more drones in the sky to investigate:

Learn from the best: if you think there may be a secret government UFO program, create your own government UFO program! That way, you'll have certainty!
Obviously works the same with drones.

 

[Trailblazer]

Another example with a photo of a really obvious plane.

 

[Jack Mallory]

The contagion is spreading.

Unexplained Drone Sightings Reach Philly Area

[Emphasis added]
"The drones, some of them as large as cars, appeared throughout the night Sunday night and into Monday morning."
https://patch.com/pennsylvania/across-pa/unexplained-drone-sightings-reach-philly-area