Looking at this paper a bit more, I now get to the general thesis. This maybe should have been in the OP, but in my defense, I'd argue the authors buried the lead a bit. As noted in the OP, having quoted people like Nell, Grusch, Puthoff, Elizondo, Gallaudet and others the authors established that UAP are a real phenomenon worth studying (all external content from the paper in the OP unless noted otherwise):
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Evidently, political complications aside, authorities are perplexed and moreover concerned about UAP, which are a real empirical mystery that science is surely obligated to investigate, as indeed is already happening in some quarters.
And that the Crypto Terrestrial Hypothesis (CTH) can possibly explain the Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) associated with UAP's. Note that the idea that UAPs HAVE a NHI association is already a given:
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In essence, as per all ultraterrestrial hypotheses, the CTH suggests the NHI responsible for UAP may already be present in Earth's environment in some sense, as opposed to having an extraterrestrial explanation.
So, why the CTH? The authors claim this is based on 2 "empirical mysteries":
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The starting point for taking the CTH seriously is perplexity over two interrelated empirical mysteries.
Basically, UAPs like water and volcanoes:
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First, it is increasingly apparent that UAP are not only aerial but can also move underwater in ways that – per their airborne counterparts – defy explanation.
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The second related empirical mystery is that some UAP sightings involve craft and other phenomena (e.g., "orbs") appearing to enter/exit potential underground access points, like volcanoes.
As to the first claim, the authors present various bits of evidence that UAPs are more common in or near water:
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The importance and indeed urgency of paying attention to such phenomena has been outlined in a White Paper by Retired Rear Admiral Tim Gallaudet (2024a) – cited above as corroborating Grusch's claims – who argues that an extensive body of accounts and data show "Unidentified Submersible Objects" (USOs) acting in ways that surpass human technology, and even challenge scientific understanding of what is possible underwater.
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"These objects have been observed to behave in ways that defy our current understanding of physics, much like their aerial counterparts. They are said to move at incredible speeds, and are capable of sudden and rapid acceleration, deceleration, and direction changes, all without any visible means of propulsion or control"10
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Indeed, in an article in The Daily Mail (Waugh, 2024) – titled, "Forget UFOs, alien hunters say we should be focusing on Unidentified Submerged Objects (USOs)" – former Russian Navy officer turned UAP researcher Vladimir Azhazha is quoted as saying, "Fifty percent of UFO encounters are connected with oceans. Fifteen more - with lakes. So, UFOs tend to stick to the water."
And some more from Garry Nolan:
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As Nolan (2022) stated in an interview, when asked if "whatever this is is coming from outside our atmosphere or … from beneath our oceans," he replied "Both," adding with respect to undersea activity that "sonar images show these things moving at speeds a dozen times faster than our fastest submarines."
There's some other stuff discussed but I think they sum it up here:
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Although subsurface observations of these craft do not necessarily mean they reside underwater, such accounts should be considered in light of the CTH possibility.
As for the UAPs trying to get in and out of subterranean secret bases, volcanoes seem the best bet:
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The second related empirical mystery is that some UAP sightings involve craft and other phenomena (e.g., "orbs") appearing to enter/exit potential underground access points, like volcanoes.
They give the example of Popocatepetl volcano as a "smoking gun":
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The Popocatepetl volcano in central Mexico, for example, is considered a "hotspot" for such observations (Carter, 2023), with numerous such events captured on camera in 2023, which some UAP observers suggested was a "smoking gun" regarding NHI activity on Earth (Donald, 2023).
Some smoking guns:
Assorted explanations for some of the supposed UFOs seen near Popocatepetl, like the Moon, lens reflections and rocket launches are discussed here:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/what-are-popocatepetl-strange-lights.12225/
Their reason then for considering the CTH is that "UAP are not only aerial but can also move underwater" and some people took photos of the Moon and other stuff at Popocatepetl that might be UAPs. It seems a bit of a stretch.
The first real problem is that there's no one source for reliable UFO/UAP reporting. Without reliable numbers, how does one determine that a high or unusual percentage of said UAP reports are associated with water or Volcanoes? One could peruse the collections of reports from MUFON, NUFORK, NICAP, CUFOS or any other civilian group, but 10s of thousands of anecdotal reports are just that, a bunch of anecdotes. Here is a typical NUFORK case report as shared on another thread that includes not only UAPs but possible creatures:
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Occurred: 2018-02-26 19:45 Local
Reported: 2018-02-26 19:57 Pacific
Duration: 10 minutes
Location: Desoto, WI, USA
Shape:
Characteristics: Aircraft nearby, Animals reacted
I seen 3 fighter jets circling my area flying back and forth over my house. After the fighter jets went north, I looked up in the sky and seen what appeared to be tiny little blue stars moving very fast across the sky with absolutely no sound!
Shortly after I seen the moving stars, or what ever it was, I heard a very loud screeching from some type of animal. Not sure what it was but it was freaky!
https://nuforc.org/sighting/?id=138962
Before making any assumptions about the frequency of UAPs as related to water or volcanoes, one first has to weed through ALL the reports make some sort of sense from them. Two people tried this, sorta. Cheryl and Linda Costa searched through MUFON and NUFORK reports and attempted to catagorized them. From UFO promoter/journalist Ralph Blumenthall's NYT story about them (bold by me):
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These questions and many others emerge from the first comprehensive statistical summary of so-called close encounters:
121,036 eyewitness accounts, organized county by county in each state and the District of Columbia, from 2001 to 2015.
The unlikely compendium, "
U.F.O. Sightings Desk Reference," is the work of a couple in Syracuse, who crunched unruly data on U.F.O. reports collected by two volunteer organizations: the
Mutual U.F.O. Network, or Mufon, and the
National U.F.O. Reporting Center, or Nuforc.
The book contains no narrative or anecdotal accounts, just 371 pages of charts and graphs that slice and dice the geography and timing of the incidents and the various shapes that witnesses reported: flying circles, spheres, triangles, discs, ovals, cigars.
Many of the sightings turn out to be explainable, the authors say, but a small percentage defy resolution.
They did this because:
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"We wanted to do our bit for disclosure," she said. "It's something the government should have been doing."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/science/ufo-sightings-book.html
The updated version will set one back $40, so not likely to be on my bookshelf:
But hey, I did notice a cheaper logbook where I can record all my own UFO sightings and then make my own database:
Regardless of what is in the
UFO Sightings Desk Reference, it is pulled from MUFON and NUFORK records, which we've noted in other treads is problematic. These are collections of self-selecting reports, as anyone that reports to them KNOWS there is a MUFON and/or a NUFORK to report UFOs to. And the authors of the CTH paper make no mention of this book, so even if there was useful information pointing to the increased frequency of UFO/UAP activity in or near water and volcanos, they didn't make use of it.
The idea that a high percentage of UAPs are sighted near water, if even true, can be explained even using this flawed UFO map:
Partly like the Desk Referance book, this map is pulled from NUFORK reports and then plotted on a map. NUFORK is a Washington State based, English language reporting organization. Hence, the reports skew to the US and English speaking countires. While there are various problems with this map discussed in another thread, it does demonstrate one of the axioms of UFO reporting, mainly, lots of reports happen where lots of people are.
Note that the plots in the US roughly follow the population trends for the US, lot's of people means lot's of UFO reports and lot's of people live near the coast or water. No big mystery.
The same thing applies to Bigfoot sightings, even though he should be in remote areas, The Big Guy, like Starbucks, tends to be where people are:
Map discussed here:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/mi...eporting-map-actually-based-on-us-data.12721/
As for UAPs being attracted to volcanos, that's just a ludicrous example of the authors back fitting a preconceived notion as best they could. It seems that, having already come up with the CTH, the authors needed some evidence to back it up, particularly the idea that CTs are living under ground as described by Richard Shaver in the OP:
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In the latter article, one observer is quoted as suggesting the volcano functions as an inter-dimensional "portal" (an "intergalactic gateway between two locations in space-time"). However, other people speculate that some UAP might not only be drawn to such locales (e.g., as a portal, or for purposes such as hiding or gatheringenergy), but might come from underground (i.e., with the NHI responsible residing in a subterranean way).
To that end, they suggest that UAPs must fly into active volcanos? As into the hot gases, the flying rocks and dust and the molten hot magma? Their evidence for this is a few reports and photos from 1 (one, singular, solemente) active volcano in Mexico. But wait, doesn't the US have the most UFO/UAP reports? That's what the authors say:
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(Although UAP are a worldwide phenomenon (Lomas, 2023b)1, the dynamics of this topic are mostly driven by developments in the US, which of all nations has seen the most UAP-related activity, both in terms of sightings and the attention paid to them.)
So, if the US has the most UAP sightings, there must be a lot of active volcanos in the US, right? More like 3 in the last 200+years:
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Excluding steam eruptions, these volcanoes have shown activity:
- Mount St. Helens, Washington - Eruptions and/or lava dome growth occurred in the late 1700s, 1800-1857, 1980-1986, and 2004-2008.
- Lassen Peak, California - A series of steam blasts began on May 30, 1914. An eruption occurred 12 months later on May 21, 1915. Minor activity continued through the middle of 1917.
- Mount Hood, Oregon - After being dormant for over 1,000 years, Mount Hood had an eruptive period beginning in 1781 that lasted for about a decade. In the mid-1800s, local residents reported minor explosive activity.
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/which-volcanoes-conterminous-united-states-have-erupted-nation-was-founded
And one is hard pressed to find a lot of UFO/UAP reports about these eruptions. I'm not really sure what's up with thier volcano claim, other than throwing in some anecdotes to make underground CT sound plausible. Again, this in one of two "empirical mysteries" about UAP that supposedly led them to the CTH.
Moreover, there is the idea of "sum is greater than its parts" type argument used throughout this paper. In fact the whole paper seems to be a piling on of one thing after another each reenforcing the other. To that end, the authors use the word "moreover" a lot, like this:
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Moreover, in June 2023 explosive "whistleblowing" claims were made publicly by David Grusch,
And this:
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Moreover, these allegations seem to have been taken seriously by the intelligence,
In fact, the word "moreover" appears 38 times. As if each bit of whatever follows logically from the previous bit of whatever. Bigfoot evidence follows Shaver Mysteries evidence. Kinda.
Lastly there is the 3rd listed author, Michael P Masters. He has UFO/Time Traverler UFO books aimed at the lay person:
Maybe more interesting is this line
@deirdre found in a thread about his Extratempestrial Model:
first sentence, page 4 of The_Extratempestrial_Model
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This experience, along with the fact that I've always been easily bored by the banality of reality, was the impetus for my deep dive into the UFO phenomenon.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361103244_The_Extratempestrial_Model
Maybe he's still just board with the banality of reality and is a bit of a provocateur?
Other Master's thread here:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cl...are-causing-close-encounter-experiences.12949