"Almost no voter fraud" does not mean it does not exist. It still exists, just conspiratorial narratives extrapolate on its existence with personal opinions that can not be corroborated through any actual data points, they narratives expand on the unknowns surrounding voter fraud. Please re-read the above, in fact, I lay out exactly how it progressed from simple voter fraud (which does happen on a very, very limited scale from the data we have), to a conspiratorial narrative adding in random points.
You yourself pointed out that people have accidently voted twice also. That is an example of where the "kernel of truth" can be, and one we actually see used as a specific amplification point for election fraud conspiracies. People will take legitimate, accidental errors (like accidently voting twice), and will add in their own personal opinion saying that it was done as part of some larger coordinated effort, with absolutely 0 data to back it up what so ever.
Here's an example of specific, legitimate data points, that are then taken, and people throw their own personal opinions and beliefs into a false narrative. https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/2019-07/Report_HeritageAnalysis_Final.pdf
And for the "lizard people" again, re-read. The "kernel of truth" is based around their perception of someones appearance and body movements. As pointed out in the post, the person does have the appearance they claim, as with the body movements. EXCEPT, they use their own personal opinion to add causation or surrounding specifics to those actions and *how* he looks (insert lizard or shapeshifter narrative, whatever; rather than recognizing humans themselves don't all look and act the same).
Or a disconnected example, for COVID. The VAERS database. The data in there is legitimate, BUT, people will ignore that VAERS data does NOT MEAN CAUSATION. They will then add their own believed causation, which does not actually exist in the data.
Also, didn't even notice the Game Designers Analysis post. Still going through it but, that does a much better job explaining a lot of the factors, way more in depth than I could.