"Footage of spooky spinning UFO in Wales declared GENUINE by expert" says the Daily Star. They then show this shaky footage of some lights moving over some houses. They quote the expert, Jason Gleaves, talking about the footage. He did some analysis, including finding a photo taken from the same window as the sighting, which he overlaid it onto a single frame of the video.
Jason concluding various things including:
- That it was something rotating, like the lights were rotating around a central disc.
- That it was ABOVE the treeline, hence some kind of flying craft, a flying, rotating saucer type thing.
I thought I'd do a bit more analysis. The original video was very shaky so I took it into After Effects and ran an image stabilization using two lights as reference points. This immediately showed that it didn't really look like it was rotating, it was a bunch of lights traveling in one direction at fairly constant speed, with varying brightness and visibility. Then I wanted to align the daylight image a bit better, so I too fifty frames or so from the stabilized video, and did a photo stack using a median stack mode which removes the noise.
This can then be overlaid on the stabilized video bring out the detail.
Using this more detailed version I aligned the daylight photo more accurately We can now see that the lights are not in the sky, they are actually just on or under the ridgeline. So it seems more likely these lights on the ground, and the variations in brightness and visibility are them going behind obstructions like trees.
So what is up on that hill? I recreated the scene in Google Earth, marking some possible roads.
There were two contenders - the blue road here leads up to an interesting air navigation thing but it's facing away from the camera. The red line here is more likely, it's a path on the golf course. If there were, say, a bunch of people in golf carts or bikes driving along that path, or nearby, then it would look like what you see here. Of course, it could also be aliens driving along the golf path. But what seems more likely?
Now I have NOT solved this case. I don't know what this is. It's still unidentified. I've just shown it's probably not rotating, and it's probably not in the sky. But I do know it's a mistake to draw any kind of definitive conclusion from poor quality data like a shaky video. It's also not a good idea to believe in experts, even me, just because they are saying what you really want to be true. Keep an open mind