So it does not prove that the WTC7 did not collapse due to fire. If it had, then it would be done.Remember the UAF project is at an interim stage. It's not done yet.
So it does not prove that the WTC7 did not collapse due to fire. If it had, then it would be done.Remember the UAF project is at an interim stage. It's not done yet.
And yet, Hulsey as well as AE911Truth are already communicating the key, core, central conclusion without any ifs, buts and caveats: That WTC7 did not collapse from fire, period.And what exactly gives NIST any more credibility than that?
Remember the UAF project is at an interim stage. It's not done yet.
Why are you attempting to shift the focus away from AE911Truth's study?Bad cartoon.
Manipulated computer creates impossible actions that are convincing at regular speed, but easily recognizable when broken down frame by frame. Just one example. If you care to find the truth hidden in plain sight, break it down.
And what exactly gives NIST any more credibility than that?
Remember the UAF project is at an interim stage. It's not done yet.
As you can see from the UAF study, they demonstrated that the relative movement experienced by the girder was not even in the same direction that NIST supposed. So it certainly is impossible for this connection to fail the way NIST's report said it did
Did Building 7 Collapse from Fires?
• No (this is based on our calculations)
Please stop asking this. He obviously isn't going to answer, which is an answer. And I'm sick of reading this same question over and over.So at this point in time you ought to be able to answer this obvious and relevant question: Do you, @gerrycan , find that this conclusion can be validly drawn from the study that has actually been carried out to-date by Hulsey and his team - YES or NO?
I would say that the project is on safe ground claiming to be able to dismiss NIST's walk to the west hypothesis. There is movement to the East and the whole thing moves together. These are clear issues for NIST that this project set out to get to. As it stands. There is no possible initiating event been suggested, or indeed, a reasonable evidence based case that a collapse such as this can progress in the way that has been claimed by NIST et al.And yet, Hulsey as well as AE911Truth are already communicating the key, core, central conclusion without any ifs, buts and caveats: That WTC7 did not collapse from fire, period.
The progression model has not been released by UAF, but Dr. Hulsey seems fairly sure, and he did mention that they were getting very close with the progressive collapse. Best guess there is that it probably is not that easy to get a building like WTC7 to collapse in the manner it did.This is a global negative claim and as such entirely independent from anything NIST has or hasn't done.
So at this point in time you ought to be able to answer this obvious and relevant question: Do you, @gerrycan , find that this conclusion can be validly drawn from the study that has actually been carried out to-date by Hulsey and his team - YES or NO?
Correct I can pretend not to see something, which is entirely obviously there right in front of my face staring back at me. I can ignore it, avoid it, deride it or recognise it. This is a 2 way street, so do you think that UAF or NIST did a better job of modelling the C79 connection, as per the available drawings ?You can pretend that you don't see this post, or that you find the question entirely irrelevant, but with that you clearly admit tacitly that the main, key, core conclusion that Hulsey presented publicly is irrelevant and/or invalid.
You were having trouble dealing with the errors and omissions around this connection previously. It is hard to deny or justify something which is so obvious. This project is not making life any easier for you in that respect and I do believe that you should at least show it the respect it deserves.So with ever instance of you not answering the question, you add one instance of your tacit agreement that the study's conclusion is BUNK.
In what way do you believe to have "debunked" Dr Hulsey ?And I thank you, once again, for helping me/us DEBUNK Hulsey
your post was off topic. I'm going to object to your profile pic, as it is a photo of people dying. Maybe @Mick will remove it too.He removed my illustration and most of the narrative without anyone objecting
Mick West is afraid of competing arguments. He removed my illustration and most of the narrative without anyone objecting. Mick you are censoring legitimate debate.
Leroy's fire analysis concluded that girder A2001 did not fail. If girders, being the primary supporting elements (with columns), can't fail then the beams and floors can't fail.
If girders, beams and floors can't fail, then the columns can't lose lateral support and progressive collapse, as concluded by NIST, cannot happen.
Is that a moderator directive?Please stop asking this. He obviously isn't going to answer, which is an answer. And I'm sick of reading this same question over and over.
so now professionals write "fairly sure" ideas as conclusive statements in their studies and in press headlines? and you all wonder why people don't take E911 seriously.but Dr. Hulsey seems fairly sure,
No. As was said in the presentation. The team are fairly close to getting to a progressive collapse in the model, and there is much that they did not share. Also worth noting that Dr Hulsey at one point mentions that the data presented is a few weeks example of a game they had played for 3 years.so now professionals write "fairly sure" ideas as conclusive statements in their studies and in press headlines? and you all wonder why people don't take E911 seriously.
This is given as an example of a STC.
He said STC was their term for the macro connection model. Did he say what it stands for?
You linked it way back in Sep 2013 to me here
https://www.metabunk.org/posts/71135/
The girder and it's connection to C79 I would say. The point of failure.
yea I remember him calling it "a game".of a game they had played for 3 years
with fire only?The team are fairly close to getting to a progressive collapse in the model
Hulsey claims to have shown that, in one single simplified temperature scenario, taking into consideration only fire damage on portions of two floors, and given many other key assumptions that he has not yet made public, that girder 79-44 would not have become unseated in the way predicted my NIST's model. You should adjust the logic that flows through the rest of your post accordingly.
Leroy gave a summary. What would like? A 20 hour presentation dealing with every analysis that they've done over the last two years?
He gave us the most important, door slamming evidence. Fire couldn't do what NIST says.
He points out certain inconsistencies that they were able to document, such as NIST only modeling the East connections while pinning the West. Those are glaring problems which many people are not willing to consider yet.
This is the loading. Dr Hulsey discusses it here.Okay, that says Seated Top Clip, but the graph is for a fin connection.
So what's the
15" inch displacement? The beam there, C4328 is a W16x26, meaning it's 16 inches high. So how exactly is it being displaced 15 inches at that connection? You said:
So the graph is showing that this knife connection can move 15" from the connection point before it fails? Like this, but another 12" or so?
And this connection isn't the one show in their diagram, What's that S-Shaped bit at the bottom?
Leroy gave a summary. What would like? A 20 hour presentation dealing with every analysis that they've done over the last two years?
He gave us the most important, door slamming evidence. Fire couldn't do what NIST says.
He gave the same presentation he gave a nearly year ago (Oct 19 2016). Same slides, same conclusion.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKN4qilUOfs
What exactly is going on here?
He gave the same presentation he gave a nearly year ago (Oct 19 2016). Same slides, same conclusion.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKN4qilUOfs
What exactly is going on here?
Did you realise that the girder was moving to the East as opposed to West in the UAF study ?
Before last week, I mean.
You are trying to draw conclusions that do not follow from the analyses he has done.
I really don't see the point you are trying to make here. he misspoke. So what ?So he must have made a pretty bad mistake the first time he announced "No (this is based on our calculations)"?
Hulsey seems remarkably unscientific in his interest in the fires. At 20:20 in the video he asks where's the combustibility in a steel structure. Then at 1:12:19
72:24 [I have a slide] showing an every floor
72:28 what kind of activity was going on. You
72:31 know there's almost all financial. So
72:34 one has to ask yourselves,
72:36 I don't believe people's investment
72:38 portfolios would be out on the tables
72:40 I think they'd be locked in a safe. So how
72:43 much paper was out there I just don't
72:45 see where there was a lot of combustibility
72:47 going on in that structure. So, to be on fire for
72:51 seven hours which, over that period of
72:53 time, probably not very high temperatures were developed
73:59 And that in that period of time, now I don't
73:04 know this to be the truth, but I'm told
73:06 that two o'clock in the afternoon
73:08 the fire department left and
73:11 laughed and said it was it was not a
73:13 problem and yet [?] happened. So that's that's a bit
73:17 disturbing in itself
Now I know Hulsey had a narrow brief, but since the goal of his study was to disprove the fire hypothesis, then it's a bit bizarre that he talking such uninformed nonsense about the fire.
The slide he is referring to showed up in his Jan 2017 presentation at AE911:
After giving that list, he then goes on to list what his study will look at, and combustibles isn't one of them. So that all seems rather off-topic to his study. A suspicious person might think he was trying to suggest areas of motive.
I really don't see the point you are trying to make here. he misspoke. So what ?
Did you realise that the girder was moving to the East as opposed to West in the UAF study ?
Before last week, I mean.
Which of my conclusions do not follow Leroy's analyses? Cite one at a time.
...
Leroy's fire analysis concluded that girder A2001 did not fail. If girders, being the primary supporting elements (with columns), can't fail then the beams and floors can't fail.
If girders, beams and floors can't fail, then the columns can't lose lateral support and progressive collapse, as concluded by NIST, cannot happen.
I don't remember Hulsey mentioning it before? Did he?Hang on Mick. Your point was that this was just a repeat performance, and I asked if you were aware of the East movement in the girder before last week. you won't answer.
What do you mean by "equivalents"?Why not state a specific objection to Dr Hulsey's use of equivalents in stead of dancing around it ?
Sorry I thought you mean that in an earlier version of his study he miscalculated the direction motion of a grider?
What do you mean he misspoke?
My point was that in BOTH presentations he shows the same slides, Oct 2016, and Sept 2017, saying that his calculations showed it did not collapse from fires.
Here he is saying it again in January 2017
So has anything significantly changed in the last year? What has he been doing for a year?
72:24 [I have a slide] showing an every floor
72:28 what kind of activity was going on. You
72:31 know there's almost all financial. So
72:34 one has to ask yourselves,
72:36 I don't believe people's investment
72:38 portfolios would be out on the tables
72:40 I think they'd be locked in a safe. So how
72:43 much paper was out there I just don't
72:45 see where there was a lot of combustibility
72:47 going on in that structure. So, to be on fire for
72:51 seven hours which, over that period of
72:53 time, probably not very high temperatures were developed
73:59 And that in that period of time, now I don't
73:04 know this to be the truth, but I'm told
73:06 that two o'clock in the afternoon
73:08 the fire department left and
73:11 laughed and said it was it was not a
73:13 problem and yet [?] happened. So that's that's a bit
73:17 disturbing in itself
Now I know Hulsey had a narrow brief, but since the goal of his study was to disprove the fire hypothesis, then it's a bit bizarre that he talking such uninformed nonsense about the fire.
So Hulsey was asking about the fire-fighting efforts two years ago, and he STILL thinks the fire department "left and laughed and said it was it was not a problem".
19:41 NIST said there was a fire that burned
19:46 for around seven hours but the it's
19:49 our understanding that the fire
19:52 department came and looked at it and
19:54 left and said it was not a big deal and
19:56 so why was there a problem?
Let's see:
Hulsey did not show that girder A2001 did not fail. He claimed to have shown that it would not fail under only one very specific scenario using a simplified heating model and only modeling fire damage on portions of two floors, and subject to the very specific assumptions that we have not seen. Do you understand the difference between the limited claim Hulsey's claimed model actually supports and the absolute claim you think it supports? If you understand that, then you see how the whole chain of reasoning in your post is broken: Hulsey didn't show that specific girder couldn't fail; he didn't show other girders couldn't fail; he didn't show columns couldn't fail; and he didn't show the building couldn't fail.
In the UAF study, both SAP2000 and ABAQUS showed the movement of the girder to be to the east wrt the centre of stiffness for the building. NIST had previously said West.
In the UAF study, when the rate for thermal expansion was increased by 40% in an attempt to induce a NIST like scenario, the removal of the C79 sideplate was needed to allow the girder to travel, the sideplate however would also inhibit failure.
The UAF study found that with the sideplate included, the 2 beams from the east framing closest into C79 buckled.
These are not insignificant. What of the above were you aware of before last week ?
All I said was that Leroy determined A2001 could not fail. "Leroy's fire analysis concluded that girder A2001 did not fail."
Hulsey does not address this. Instead, he claims:The extent of the area with detailed connection models was based on the results of single floor fire simulations, where connection damage west of Columns 73 through 76 were not found to contribute to an initial failure event on the east side of the structure. The area where break elements were modeled was selected to reduce the model size without biasing the results for simulating the initial failure event.
This omits what NIST actually did to model damage to the western part (which is not entirely irrelevant, IMO):1. Outside the selected area, connection failures were not modeled (NIST used fixed or pinned connections).
More importantly, Hulsey claims that "2. Connections were not modeled for the exterior moment frame". I think he misconstrues this as "exterior moment frame was totally rigid". But read the NIST report in context: You find this all in section "11.2.5 Modeling Connections", which starts on page 473. On the same page, they start discussing "Modeling Failure with Break Elements". The critical sentence is on page 475:
Outside the selected area, structural damage–such as buckling of the steel frame and crushing and cracking of the concrete slab–was modeled over the entire floor, but connection failures were not modeled.
Bolding mine: It's not that they didn't model the connections at all - they probably did! -, they just didn't allow for the connections in the wall or west of the selected area to fail under the modelled loads. I thus assume that particularly the east wall was allowed to respond laterally to the pressure of expanding floor beams. I have not found explicit confirmation of this, but hints such as on page 490 (my bolding):The floor area where failure of floor framing connections and shear studs was modeled with break elements on Floors 8 to 14 is shown in Figure 11–9. This area is east of the north-south line passing through Column 76 and the core area east of Column 73.
Also, Section "11.2.7 Boundary Conditions and Loads" does mention how the top and bottom of the 16-floor model were fixed, but do not mention that the walls or the western part are fixed, so I assume they were not.Interior columns were not thermally restrained and were free to expand. Exterior columns had some thermal restraint due to the moment framing, but their temperatures remained low. Axial column stresses remained essentially constant because (1) interior column temperatures were less than 200 ºC and exterior column temperatures were less than 150 ºC, except for a few columns in the 12th and 13th floors which were less than 300 ºC; and (2) the failure of girders in a floor did not noticeably decrease the column load.
He made a claim about A2001 on F13. That is an absolutely specific girder. Your statement that he didn't show this is false. Stop making false statements.
All I said was that Leroy determined A2001 could not fail. "Leroy's fire analysis concluded that girder A2001 did not fail." What comes after that is my logical thought process.
My logic: Leroy's analysis of the girder connection at C79 (F13) would hold true at other floors where the same type of connection is used (quite a few).
Again, this is NIST's claim which has been proved false by computer analysis. Twist my words any way you like, you can't get away from it. He said, she said won't work here. It's black and white simple.
The make up and reaction of a connection element in the model being quantified, as shown in the graphs you refer to, and replicated as an equivalent connection in the model to save processing time for simulation runs. Talking of element models, it is interesting to note from the 2013 thread, that we discussed the COMBIN37 element in NIST's ANSYS model which is a unidirectional element. We don't know what conditions were applied to this element by NIST, ie the FSLIDE% for example, but we know it's unidirectional. Whereas with the UAF study we know what was tried. We know that the friction was reduced to zero, and tried at various increased levels to learn the difference it could have made.What do you mean by "equivalents"?
None of it. I haven't been paying attention to Hulsey, as I figured I'd wait for some actual results to come out. Seems like I'm still waiting.
Are you telling me these are new discoveries since the 2016 and early 2017 presentations?
Does that mean he was being a bit premature in announcing his conclusion in 2016?
All I said was that Leroy determined A2001 could not fail.
Leroy's fire analysis concluded that girder A2001 did not fail. If girders, being the primary supporting elements (with columns), can't fail then the beams and floors can't fail.
Remember the UAF project is at an interim stage. It's not done yet.
And what exactly gives NIST any more credibility than that?