Highly improbable that the CAG would not know the position of Navy subs. Especially if weapons were being tested/released.Lets put it this way, the USS Louisville was in that area of the sighting.
Jim Slaight said in the Fox interview that his first impression when they saw the Tic Tac and disturbance . Was it was a missile fired from a sub. Unfortunatly he is cut off after that by the presenter who then asking Fravor a question
Don't you find it rather odd, that the thing that would easily explain the disturbance in the water, was actually in that area.
And the comments in the AATIP report re live fire tests are really odd, as they seem to contradict themselves. Not saying it was a missile, although it's a theory. But I just find that report really odd in a number of ways. In sections it seems to ponder strange ideas when they are not needed. For example they write that the disturbance may have been caused by an AAV having the ability to cloak or make itself invisible. This to me shows a bias by the report writer towards it being something Alien or extraordinary.
And curious that the sub was not detected in the area in any case.
A lot of very weird coincidences and errors need to be put together for this to be possible to explain the visual observations.
And we are left with the radar observations that match the visual and are not explained by a tethered ship balloon.
However unlikely this is the only viable hypothesis I've heard at the moment.