Dr. Villarroel posted about another paper from an independent researcher that purports to confirm the shadow deficit nuclear test correlations.
As with an earlier claimed replication, if the researcher is using the same datasets as Beatrice Villarroel
et al. then all this confirms is that the original researchers did the maths correctly (or more probably, used statistics processing software correctly).
It does not confirm that Villarroel, Solano etc. have been accurate in their detection and/ or correct identification of astronomical transients.
Without an independent study of the POSS-1 plates, Brian Doherty's paper does not replicate research based on a study of those plates, it just replicates the results of the statistical working performed by B.V.
et al., accepting their identifications of transients as being accurate and thorough, with no (at the pre-statistical processing and interpretation stages) type 1 error.
In fairness to Brian Doherty, the content of his paper makes this reasonably clear, but its title does not; he has
not replicated Villarroel
et al.'s findings
"... of Nuclear Test-Transient Correlations and Earth Shadow Deficit in POSS-I Photographic Plates" because he's used the data collected by those authors; he hasn't checked their identification of transients on the plates.
If someone claimed they had replicated significant correlations of a startling nature described in an experimental paper, we would probably feel short-changed if it turned out they had used the data sets of the original author(s) and not actually replicated the experiment.
External Quote:
I did not perform raw plate extraction or transient detection. The transient catalog was produced by the VASCO team using their published pipeline (Solano et al. 2022).
Brian Doherty, "Independent Replication of Nuclear Test-Transient Correlations and Earth Shadow Deficit in POSS-I Photographic Plates", March 2026 (PDF attached to
@MonkeeSage's post
# 662).