1. MH370 speculation has become excessive recently. Metabunk is not a forum for creating theories by speculation. It's a forum for examining claims, and seeing if they hold up. Please respect this and keep threads on-topic. There are many other forums where speculation is welcome.
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  1. derwoodii

    derwoodii Senior Member

    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 30, 2015
  2. CeruleanBlu

    CeruleanBlu Member

    It is looking promising indeed to be identified as a 777 piece.

  3. TWCobra

    TWCobra Senior Member

    Interesting that the rear of the part seems to have been sheared off.

    Flaps down on impact?? Certainly none of the compression you'd expect with a high speed vertical impact. Interesting if true.
  4. sharpnfuzzy

    sharpnfuzzy Member

    Seems that a suitcase has also been found washed up on the island.

  5. derwoodii

    derwoodii Senior Member

    i found this drift buoy map posted on http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/565335-flaperon-washes-up-reunion-island-2.html#post9062874

    OP says "no help" ?? tho i see it as evidence of possible direction of crash site but i cannot recreate or extract same map from the given linked site to check as its a lot more north than most of current search zones

    says its Drift of buoys since march 8th 2014

    So hoping more will soon be found put more rest to the lost family's

    To some relief of our OZ bean counters the salvages parts landed on French turf so the burden of $$ cost to follow up check seemingly falls to them and not Australia who's been ponying up the $ for much of the past work. I hear China tipped in but not seen much value or return.
  6. Joe

    Joe Senior Member

    The Conspiracy theorist say it was shot down as it headed Towards Diego Garcia which is why they say it was spotted over Maldives . Im sure the debris being found SW Of Diego Garcia might add to the conspiracy
    • Agree Agree x 2
  7. Bruce Robertson

    Bruce Robertson New Member

    In my own MH370 theory, I put the crash site at 21S, 103E (do a web search for MH370 and my name -- I can't post a link here). The squares with the first image above.
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2015
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  8. derwoodii

    derwoodii Senior Member

    yes i saw that and you suggested debris to drift maybe found Madagascar and a stalled in soft landing so most air frame sank intact so not much left but wing parts, your doing pretty good so far.

    hey joe, yes sadly CT minds will push all sorts of claims from imbedded ignorace or site click bait
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 30, 2015
  9. derwoodii

    derwoodii Senior Member

    you can't make this stuff up;) a volcano on Reunion island Le Piton de la Fournaise has just decided to complicate things and threaten to erupt


    INVESTIGATORS examining a piece of debris suspected to belong to missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have been forced to temporaily flee the site where the part washed up.

    An emergency evacuation is under way on the south-eastern side of La Reunion island, where the World Heritage-listed volcano, Le Piton de la Fournaise has recorded unusual seismic activity.
  10. JesseCuster

    JesseCuster Active Member

    No doubt HAARP was used to activate that volcano to hamper any efforts to recover debris that might show what really happened... (I bet that has been claimed in seriousness somewhere on the Interwebs)
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  11. Gridlock

    Gridlock Active Member

    Damage at trailing edge is evidence of a flaps-down wet landing? Lack of overall damage is evidence against an uncontrolled entry/mid-air break-up?

    I guess it's expected more debris will come ashore over time, but hopefully just this is enough to let those affected grieve better.
  12. Whitebeard

    Whitebeard Senior Member

    Not come across that one, yet, but I've been following this story on a few CT sites, above Top Secret, David Ikes forums etc and there are loads of claims of planted wreckage, faked photos, etc. Even someone suggesting the flap is actually from MH-17 planted by the CIA (complete with barnacles glued on)
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  13. TEEJ

    TEEJ Senior Member

    Sky News UK ran a piece to camera from the island on the flaperon being spotted earlier. The claim was that others have come forward to say that they had seen the same aircraft part a month ago in the surf. The claim was that it was spotted at a different location further up the beach. Possibly the claim is true? Possibly the people that have come forward just dismissed it at the time as a piece of old boat wreckage?

    Video at following link.

    Video: MH370 Debris Found 'A Month Ago'

  14. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    A beach cleaner on the salnd says he fond several items going back to May this year, which might have been from the plane. But he though it was just garbage, so burnt them
  15. sorry Mick here is the link


    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 1, 2015
  16. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Sebille's work shows that the debris could have come from pretty much anywhere in the South Indian Ocean, but if it came from the search area suggested from the satellite comms analysis, then it would probably be from the north of that area. Still a huge area, and not certain.


    • Informative Informative x 1
  17. yupp, however his calculation is based on object washing ashore in July, there are multiple witnesses (including guy that is a beachcomber and used the item for different purposes) the object washed ashore in May (or even before), which puts the crash location even further to the north on the 7th arc... the IO current is circular and it goes like a reverse clock
  18. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Not hugely though.

    Try it yourself:


    The search will be proceeding in probabilistic grounds, this new info will all be plugged into a model that tries to figure out where the best areas are to search.
  19. TWCobra

    TWCobra Senior Member

    Diego Garcia implicated? Hmmmm.

    From the Notams (Notices To Airmen) from my last flight. It's been there for a couple of years now.

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  20. I guess that site is frequently visited these days :)

    if I put it a little bit south of Christmas Island and choose forward option, after 1 year and 2 months it gets right to Reunion Island...
  21. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Which tells us very little. It's an inexact model of a chaotic system. Fluid mechanics is not incredibly predictable over large timeframes. Hence the huge spread from a single point.
  22. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    And also, this a dispersion model for marine plastics - mostly small objects. Larger objects will behave differently.

    The rubber duck icon is not entirely whimsical. An accidental dump of 29,000 rubber ducks (and other similar toys) in 1992 has been a valuable tool for studying ocean currents.


    But they go in many direction, and could have come from many directions. There's a real danger in oversimplifying ocean currents as some kind of river.
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  23. Joe

    Joe Senior Member

    Emergency to friendly aircraft . :)
  24. TWCobra

    TWCobra Senior Member

    It would be an emergency field for any aircraft. Light aircraft in trouble have landed at places like Johnson island during the middle of research for Star Wars and they weren't shot down.

    I'd be surprised if Diego actually had any active ground to air sites on it.
  25. TWCobra

    TWCobra Senior Member

  26. TWCobra

    TWCobra Senior Member

    If it is the Malaysian 777, the paint on the door should be a clear indication.

    malasian 777.
  27. [​IMG]

    Mick I know that but it's about probabilities, noone can point exact location of origin but it's safe to make some estimations and say area SW of Australia has 5% chance, NW of Australia 35% chance etc.

    Just look how much red color is around Reunion if you pick Christmas Island as a starting point compared to current search area.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2015
  28. TEEJ

    TEEJ Senior Member

  29. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    But the search has to proceed on multiple assumptions, not just a backwards trace of the ocean currents - which yield thousand of square miles of equally probably start points. It's a mistake to focus on one variable. Or to focus on one spot for unquantifiable additional reasons.
  30. you mean like ATSB focused on southern SIO for a year or so? Yes I absolutely agree.
  31. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    No, thats no what I mean. Please don't paraphrase me and then agree with me. I'm saying it's a mistake to focus on one variable. If you have multiple variable then you have a model that gives you a set of probabilities that then indicates where to look. You then factor other things into it, like if you can search fifty 0.0001% areas for the cost of one 0.001% area.

    You can't armchair criticize the search pattern unless you know all the variables and factors.
  32. well now when we have debris literally everything points to the opposite of their defined area

    that same area has been extensively searched for debris with various planes ships etc.

    to miss one piece wouldn't be a surprise, but so many? nigh on impossible

    I have and I will always criticize the search patterns that have no plausible motivation, as much as they match the assumption, especially if I have the evidence.
  33. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    No, it simply indicates the north of the defined search area.
  34. notice that this is based on the object washing up after a year and 4 months, however now we have confirmation from multiple witnesses that it was first seen in May so that makes it a year and 2 months(and maybe even before), which all pushes the likely location of origin even more to the north
  35. Debris tracking flight MH370 based on ocean currents

    northern part of the search area looks much more probable if this is anything to go by

    (I would add this to my last post but edit didn't work for some reason from my Opera browser)
  36. Rob

    Rob Member

    Even if MH370 crashed on the north side of the search area, in ocean current simulations the debris still fans out about to some 1700 km wide by the time it gets to Mauritius / Reunion Island.

    Since Reunion Island is only 70 km across, there is only a 4 % chance of any debris from MH370 ending up on Reunion Island.

    If this flaperon is indeed from MH370, we are either extremely lucky, or there is a LOT more debris from MH370 still floating in the South Indian Ocean.

    If the latter, we may wonder why none of that debris was found in the earlier searches back in March/April 2014, much closer to the crash site...
    Maybe we were looking in the wrong place back then ?
  37. Gridlock

    Gridlock Active Member

    You'd need to know how many pieces of debris there are, and how large a swath they covered at 0-day, and probably dozens of other data, to make this assertion.
  38. Whitebeard

    Whitebeard Senior Member

    it appears more debris is now turning up
  39. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Your odds are meaningless, Reunion is just where the debris happened to end up. Of course it's "lucky" that it ends up in a particular spot, but the real odds you need to calculate are the odds of some debris ending up on a beach anywhere, and then calculate the odds of it being found.

    Because it's vastly harder to find debris on the open ocean, than to wait for it to turn up on a random beach somewhere.
  40. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Not really, as your articles says:
    I think there's a problem with the Malaysian communication. They are basically repeating things they have heard from the media, like the "plane window":

    Which was just the plastic side from a sewing machine
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