DoW R2 - PR071 - (Lake Huron F16 vs UAP)

[john.phil]

As part of the second tranche of records released by the DoW, video PR-071 shows a UAP being intercepted by an F-16 near Lake Huron. Because the video was not properly redacted, hidden information can still be read if the video is adjusted:

SECRET/REL TO USA ACGU
OPERATION NOBLE EAGLE
AIRCRAFT TYPE F-16
CREATED BY MSGT SAMANTHA "SADE" BURROWS
REVIEWED BY MAJ JASON "HAD" BRIGHT
Downgrading Instructions
IAW Theater Directives
SECRET//REL TO USA, ACGU

About Operation Noble Eagle:

Operation Noble Eagle (ONE) is the United States and Canadian military operation related to homeland security and support to federal, state, and local agencies. The operation began 11 September 2001, in response to the September 11 attacks.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Noble_Eagle

MISSION DATE 12 FEB 2023
GTO - W042
MISSION #/6711(?)
UNIT 179 FS
CALL SIGN AFSIR12
LOCATION: N 45 02 54.67 W 083 28 44.73
BINCEPT(?) 1x AIM 9X

The video description on the DoW website identifies the aircraft as an Air National Guard (ANG) F-16C. The poorly redacted section references the 179th FS (Fighter Squadron), which is part of the ANG, is based in Minnesota, and operates the F-16C.

AARO assesses that this video, whose uploader-defined title is, "USAF ANG F-16C (callsign [CALLSIGN]) Shoots Down UAP over Lake Huron with [Weapon System], 12 Feb 2023," is likely derived from an infrared sensor aboard a U.S. military platform operating within the United States Northern Command area of responsibility in 2023. A user uploaded this video to a classified network in February 2023.

source: https://www.war.gov/UFO/?type=.vid#...ver-Lake-Huron-with-Weapon-System-12-Feb-2023

The poorly redacted section also reveals that the aircraft's call sign was AFSIR12 and that the weapon system used to down the "UAP" was an AIM-9X air-to-air missile.

The 179th Fighter Squadron is a unit of the Minnesota Air National Guard 148th Fighter Wing located at Duluth Air National Guard Base, Minnesota, United States. The 179th is equipped with the General Dynamics F-16C Fighting Falcon.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/179th_Fighter_Squadron

However, the OSD information remains unreadable even after enhancing the footage:

It was in the news at the time that on Sunday, 12th Feb 2023, an F-16 shot down the 4th suspected surveillance balloon when it was about to go over Lake Huron, flying in the direction of the Canadian border at an altitude of 20,000ft. There seems to be no additional footage of this incident, but the object was described as octagonal in shape, with hanging strings and no visible payload. The media were reporting that two missiles were launched, as the first missed the target:

13 Feb 2023.

(00:00) - The United States has shot down another Airborne object near the U.S Canadian border on Sunday (12 Feb 2023). The fourth unidentified object to be shot down by U.S fighter jets in the past week. Now the series of incidents began when a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon was shot down on February 4th.

(00:17) - U.S Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told ABC's Meet the Press on Saturday that the object he believes were surveillance balloons of some kind. Now let's get the latest with our Washington correspondent Stefan Siemens. Stefan, what more can you tell us about this latest object that seems to have been shot down?

(00:43) - All right, yeah, three objects within three days, it's getting busy up there, it seems like. But, seriously speaking now, this one was over, or was detected earlier on actually Saturday, yesterday, over Montana, that caused a brief closing of the airspace over Montana but the military let that go, it didn't shoot it down over Montana. This is now the shootout of this object which was now shot down over the upper Michigan Peninsula just shortly before it entered or went over Lake Huron.

(01:18) - It is described as flying at twenty thousand feet. It was shot down by a U.S Air Force F-16 fighter jet. It was described of a shape of an octagon with strings attached, nothing hanging on those strings. The military, the Pentagon also said that they didn't assess this as a military threat but suspected surveillance capabilities, and therefore shot this object down. This is what we know so far about this incident, and if you are confused, this is not the same one which we reported about yesterday, which was shot down over Canada, also by a U.S fighter jet, but that was an F-22, and which was described as a cylindric shape, flying at forty thousand feet.

source:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gia6bJYGWc

(00:51) ABC news has confirmed the F-16 fighter that shot down the object over Lake Huron missed on first try but a second missile brought it down.

source:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDKcrMofFZU

The poorly redacted location matches the description that the object was about to fly over Lake Huron, travelling toward the Canadian border: N 45° 02' 54.67", W 83° 28' 44.73":

The released video PR-071 shows a balloon with strings attached and no visible payload being engaged on 12th Feb 2023, though it was not octagonal in shape.

Fox News reported that the UAP in the footage is not the balloon itself, as for them it is quite obviously not an UAP. Instead, they claim the UAP is the white dot that moves around the crosshairs. However, this assertion is not corroborated by the video description on the DoW website:

At the 11 second mark, the sensor focuses on an area of contrast in the center of its field-of-view. At the 20 second mark, the footage appears to depict a kinetic interaction between two distinct areas of contrast, with the initial subject of the footage fragmenting in a radial displacement pattern that suggests a high-energy event.

source: https://www.war.gov/UFO/?type=.vid#...ver-Lake-Huron-with-Weapon-System-12-Feb-2023

Fox News report:

A newly declassified video shown in infrared, depicts an object appearing to be a weather balloon shot down – moments before a bright white object appears to the right of the crosshairs.

The bright white object appears to move around the crosshairs before eventually disappearing.

source: https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/de...uron-encounter-f-16-near-up-released-pentagon

Fox News UAP:

Enhanced image of the actual "UAP", looks just like a party balloon:

source: https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-one-orange-balloon-floating-up-in-blue-sky-18215569.html

Moment of the strike:

Composite of two frames representing the object's geometry before and after the strike:

 

[RobertBillyBob]

According to Kirkpatrick via Greenstreet Aaro has identified the object as a boy scout balloon :

They shot down a balloon, that had a tethered package on the bottom it had a transponder on it, that was built, flow and operated by a boyscout group

 

[john.phil]

According to Kirkpatrick via Greenstreet Aaro has identified the object as a boy scout balloon :

It seems only one of the four balloons was ever officially identified as Chinese. However, there was speculation about a pico balloon shot down by an F-22 over Canada the previous day, on 11th Feb 2023:

17 Feb 2023
Did USAF Shoot Down a Hobbyist Club Balloon?

Attention surrounding the downing of four airborne objects by the U.S. military this month has turned from an alleged Chinese spy balloon to smaller scientific balloons launched by hobbyists, students and enthusiasts.

One such object, a so-called pico balloon transmitting a call sign of K9YO and belonging to the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade (NIBBB), might be among the craft recently destroyed by Air Force fighters. The balloon club reported on its blog that it has not heard from the balloon since February 11, when it was drifting near Alaska.

Many observers have been quick to note the balloon's proximity to the area where one of the downings took place, and have speculated that the club's balloon was shot down. NIBBB members, however, said they sometimes lose contact with balloons for long periods because of inadequate sunlight reaching their solar panels and other factors. The club said it cannot identify the downed balloon until it is recovered.

source: https://www.flyingmag.com/did-usaf-shoot-down-a-hobbyist-club-balloon/

Another report provides more information:

18 Feb 2023
Did an F-22 shoot down an Illinois hobby group's small radio balloon?

A military spokesperson tells NPR it's their understanding that the FBI has spoken to the hobbyist group in question — the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade, based just north of Chicago — in an apparent attempt to determine whether their small balloon might have inadvertently caused a big ruckus.

But the hobbyist club's members are warning that while their balloon, whose radio callsign is K9YO-15, is missing in action, it's too soon to say whether it was shot down by a warplane. They also say their balloon launches follow all federal regulations.

With the use of force authorized, a U.S. F-22 used an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile to shoot down the cylindrical object over Canada's Yukon Territory on Feb. 11.

"98% certainty" that it's the same balloon, an expert says.

"Before the Yukon balloon was shot down, us amateurs were watching [K9YO-15] go towards Alaska," Dan Bowen, a stratospheric balloon consultant, told NPR.

When the prediction showed K9YO-15 heading from Alaska over the Yukon, Bowen said, "we really hoped it wouldn't be intercepted. But we knew the moment that the intercept was reported, whose it was and which one it was."

Asked if he believes the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade's balloon was shot down, Bowen didn't hesitate.

"Yes. Absolutely," he said. "You know, I would say with 98% certainty."

The balloon had already circled the Earth 6 times

source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1158048921/pico-balloon-k9yo

In the footage you linked, Sean Kirkpatrick states that:

• A Boy Scouts balloon equipped with a transponder circumnavigated the globe 7 or 8 times before being destroyed. This seems to be a description of the K9YO-15 balloon from the news article above;
• A star-shaped Walmart balloon was destroyed after a pilot noted its potential stealth capabilities, because the targeting system could not acquire a lock. However, they were able to read "Happy Birthday" on the balloon from a close-up image captured by the AIM-9X onboard camera.

It is unclear whether Sean Kirkpatrick has more definitive information on it, such as identifiable debris retrieved from Canada or Lake Huron, or it's just hearsay. However, the balloon in this thread cannot be K9YO-15 because the latter was supposedly destroyed over Canada. But Sean could be talking about another Boy Scouts balloon.

Moreover, there seems to be no evidence that Boy Scouts are related to K9YO-15, but there was a satire article that probably contaminated the information space and might have ended up in Sean's memory:

February 14, 2023
Satire: Local boy scout shoots down Chinese spy balloons, honored as local and national hero

This week, President Biden awarded Jake Hamlon, a Rockbridge County High School student and member of Boy Scout Troop 521, with the Medal of Honor for shooting down three Chinese spy balloons over Goshen Pass.
(...)
Hamlon, who was prepared that day, chambered a .22 caliber shell into his Remington Model 34 and assumed a prone firing position. Fellow scout and classmate Bill Thomlinson, 14, acted as a spotter, scribbling calculations on a notepad to account for relative distance, atmospheric conditions, and speed of the target.

Hamlon adjusted the steel dials on the rifle's telescopic lens to the correct elevation and windage as Thomlinson read off his calculations.

Hamlon, firmly resting the barrel on a stone outcropping, drew a breath of air, which he held for two seconds, and squeezed the trigger.

"That sonovabitch popped like a two-month-old zit and fell to the ground in streaming tatters. We all stood there stunned silent until someone shouted, 'Take that, Chairman Xi!' Then we all leapt in the air, hollering and high fiving," Thomlinson said.

source: https://ringtumphi.net/7463/opinion...-balloons-honored-as-local-and-national-hero/

 

[Nourali]

According to Kirkpatrick via Greenstreet Aaro has identified the object as a boy scout balloon :

If AARO had identified it, why did DoW release it as a "UFO" without saying it was identified ? That's the part I don't understand.
Especially since this is clearly a balloon. There's no real ambiguity here.

 

[john.phil]

If AARO had identified it, why did DoW release it as a "UFO" without saying it was identified ? That's the part I don't understand.
Especially since this is clearly a balloon. There's no real ambiguity here.

Perhaps partly because it was on the list of Luna's videos, which came from Corbell.

 

[MapperGuy]

Perhaps partly because it was on the list of Luna's videos, which came from Corbell.

That, and bureaucracy. Probably have to get a sign-off from many different offices before they can "officially" change anything. And if one person in that chain disagrees, it stays a UFO.

 

[RobertBillyBob]

That, and bureaucracy. Probably have to get a sign-off from many different offices before they can "officially" change anything. And if one person in that chain disagrees, it stays a UFO.

It's not even about one person disagreeing. AARO has limited resources, if they were asked to release Luna's videos as fast as possible they can't send 50 of them through the identification pipeline. Luna's list is from March 31, release 02 from May 22. I think they IDed Luna's videos in their database and pushed them through the declassification pipeline without any effort at identification.

 

[NorCal Dave]

I think they IDed Luna's videos in their database and pushed them through the declassification pipeline without any effort at identification.

Just speculating, but maybe even a purposeful non-effort at identification? In another thread (linked below) there is an hour+ presentation by Kirkpatrick, in which he makes comments about pilots seeing things they think are anomalous, but when shown an explanation, they learn. But when certain members of Congress are presented with an explanation, they don't learn. There was clearly an exasperation with some members from his time running AARO.

IF some of the current people in AARO have similar feelings about certain members of Congress, particularly one's demanding the release of certain videos while calling for AARO to be defunded because they're bad at their job, might they just go ahead and give members what they want regardless. If I'm at AARO, and I have clearances far beyond someone like Corbell, but Luna is calling me out and demanding secret UFO videos that Corbell has identified, I'd just giver her things like this balloon video. Your boy Corbell says this is a super secret video that shows NHI, well here ya go.

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/se...-in-mission-regarding-uaps.14912/#post-370116

 

[Ann K]

Just speculating, but maybe even a purposeful non-effort at identification? In another thread (linked below) there is an hour+ presentation by Kirkpatrick, in which he makes comments about pilots seeing things they think are anomalous, but when shown an explanation, they learn. But when certain members of Congress are presented with an explanation, they don't learn. There was clearly an exasperation with some members from his time running AARO.

There needn't have been any intention behind the lack of identification. We study these things and might come to a conclusion that "it's probably a balloon" or it's probably a camera artifact", but of course that's not absolute proof of identification. I wouldn't expect a governmental review to be any different. The lack of a definitive ID might just mean "We didn't think this showed anything worth studying in any great detail".

 

[Fritzkquzerk]

There needn't have been any intention behind the lack of identification. We study these things and might come to a conclusion that "it's probably a balloon" or it's probably a camera artifact", but of course that's not absolute proof of identification. I wouldn't expect a governmental review to be any different. The lack of a definitive ID might just mean "We didn't think this showed anything worth studying in any great detail".

What about the few cases AARO stated are "really anomalous"?
I mean sure if they don't know if it's a balloon, flare or glare on a real object, it makes absolute sense that they will say it's unidentified / unresolved.
But they kinda admitted they have more interesting cases, releasing telemetry or raw data or even a high res video seems to be out of question for them for security reasons (and rightly so, probably), so they can really milk the prosaic simply unexplained cow to feed the various Corbells and Knapps.
Like even if the "serious anomalous cases" are just explainable with incompetence, I kinda see why they still wouldn't give raw data on that.
So everyone wins in a sense, they don't have to disclose the possible "serious UAP problems", but the public is somewhat satisfied.

 

[jarlrmai]

What about the few cases AARO stated are "really anomalous"?
I mean sure if they don't know if it's a balloon, flare or glare on a real object, it makes absolute sense that they will say it's unidentified / unresolved.
But they kinda admitted they have more interesting cases, releasing telemetry or raw data or even a high res video seems to be out of question for them for security reasons (and rightly so, probably), so they can really milk the prosaic simply unexplained cow to feed the various Corbells and Knapps.
Like even if the "serious anomalous cases" are just explainable with incompetence, I kinda see why they still wouldn't give raw data on that.
So everyone wins in a sense, they don't have to disclose the possible "serious UAP problems", but the public is somewhat satisfied.

Which ones are those?

 

[Ann K]

What about the few cases AARO stated are "really anomalous"?
I mean sure if they don't know if it's a balloon, flare or glare on a real object, it makes absolute sense that they will say it's unidentified / unresolved.

Everything in the Low Information Zone is unidentified and unresolved, and as we have discussed before, every form of recording has a LIZ. There is no reason to think that there will ever be a positive ID on a couple of blurry pixels. If the info is not there, it's simply NOT THERE.

But they kinda admitted they have more interesting cases

Citation needed.

 

[Fritzkquzerk]

Which ones are those?

Everything in the Low Information Zone is unidentified and unresolved, and as we have discussed before, every form of recording has a LIZ. There is no reason to think that there will ever be a positive ID on a couple of blurry pixels. If the info is not there, it's simply NOT THERE.

Citation needed.

It was discussed here:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/the-uap-assessment-matrix.14208/

I'm referring to those 2% unidentified cases Kirkpatrick talked about.
Which they supposedly have data about and still cannot explain properly.
I have literally no idea which these cases are.
I'm assuming AARO can have better info which they cannot disclose just for security reasons, unless we think this is all they have but then again it's difficult if we have redacted info anyways.

 

[Fritzkquzerk]

Everything in the Low Information Zone is unidentified and unresolved, and as we have discussed before, every form of recording has a LIZ. There is no reason to think that there will ever be a positive ID on a couple of blurry pixels. If the info is not there, it's simply NOT THERE.

Citation needed.

It's this one.
But correct me if I got it wrong.

 

[jarlrmai]

As has been discussed before the word 'anomalous' is problematic, it's hard to know what Kirkpatrick means by it here, vs other interpretations.

A clue is in his next statement

So probably things they were just not able to characterise yet.

 

[Fritzkquzerk]

As has been discussed before the word 'anomalous' is problematic, it's hard to know what Kirkpatrick means by it here, vs other interpretations.

A clue is in his next statement

View attachment 91269

So probably things they were just not able to characterise yet.

My point is, can we assume by any reasonable doubt that the AARO stance is "those cases are actually just LIZ"?
I'd be happy to have an official explanation on that.
Also, we know they cannot give us raw data for security reasons.
just to clarify I don't believe in aliens on earth, not implying that at all.
I'd love to discuss this again but maybe it's not the correct thread.

 

[Harabeck]

My point is, can we assume by any reasonable doubt that the AARO stance is "those cases are actually just LIZ"?
I'd be happy to have an official explanation on that.
Also, we know they cannot give us raw data for security reasons.
just to clarify I don't believe in aliens on earth, not implying that at all.
I'd love to discuss this again but maybe it's not the correct thread.

Well you can find their 2024 report here: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/...Y24-CONSOLIDATED-ANNUAL-REPORT-ON-UAP-508.PDF

Quoting from the executive summary:

AARO resolved 118 cases during the reporting period, all of which resolved to prosaic
objects such as various types of balloons, birds, and unmanned aerial systems (UAS). As of May
31, 2024, AARO has an additional 174 cases queued for closure, pending a final review and
Director's approval. As of the publishing date of this report, all 174 cases have been finalized as
resolved to prosaic objects including balloons, birds, UAS, satellites, and aircraft. Many other
cases remain unresolved and AARO continues collection and analysis on that body of cases. It is
important to underscore that, to date, AARO has discovered no evidence of extraterrestrial
beings, activity, or technology.

...
AARO's ability to resolve cases remains constrained by a lack of timely and actionable
sensor data. AARO continues to address this challenge by working with military and technical
partners to optimize sensor requirements, information-sharing processes, and the content of UAP
reporting. AARO is also expanding engagement with foreign partners to share information and
collaborate on best practices for resolving UAP cases.

They also have section called "Notable Trends Regarding Prosaic Objects"

AARO increasingly receives cases that it is able to resolve to the Starlink satellite
constellation. For example, a commercial pilot reported white flashing lights in the night sky.
The pilot did not report an altitude or speed, and no data or imagery was recorded. AARO
assessed that this sighting of flashing lights correlated with a Starlink satellite launch from Cape
Canaveral, Florida, the same evening about one hour prior to the sighting. This sighting
occurred in the known orbital path of the satellites. AARO is investigating if other unresolved
cases may be attributed to the expansion of the Starlink and other mega-constellations in low
earth orbit.

In many other cases, birds are commonly misidentified as UAP due to sensor artifacts
resulting from compression and pixilation that often renders the object as an amorphous blob or
orb. Electro-optical/infrared sensor glare can also cause distorted pixilation of the object's true
shape. Moreover, full-motion video (FMV) analysis, consistent with other confirmed examples
of birds in flight, commonly display birds as "flickering" objects. This phenomena captured by
FMV is indicative of flapping wings.

 

[Fritzkquzerk]

Well you can find their 2024 report here: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/...Y24-CONSOLIDATED-ANNUAL-REPORT-ON-UAP-508.PDF

Quoting from the executive summary:

AARO resolved 118 cases during the reporting period, all of which resolved to prosaic
objects such as various types of balloons, birds, and unmanned aerial systems (UAS). As of May
31, 2024, AARO has an additional 174 cases queued for closure, pending a final review and
Director's approval. As of the publishing date of this report, all 174 cases have been finalized as
resolved to prosaic objects including balloons, birds, UAS, satellites, and aircraft. Many other
cases remain unresolved and AARO continues collection and analysis on that body of cases. It is
important to underscore that, to date, AARO has discovered no evidence of extraterrestrial
beings, activity, or technology.

...
AARO's ability to resolve cases remains constrained by a lack of timely and actionable
sensor data. AARO continues to address this challenge by working with military and technical
partners to optimize sensor requirements, information-sharing processes, and the content of UAP
reporting. AARO is also expanding engagement with foreign partners to share information and
collaborate on best practices for resolving UAP cases.

They also have section called "Notable Trends Regarding Prosaic Objects"

AARO increasingly receives cases that it is able to resolve to the Starlink satellite
constellation. For example, a commercial pilot reported white flashing lights in the night sky.
The pilot did not report an altitude or speed, and no data or imagery was recorded. AARO
assessed that this sighting of flashing lights correlated with a Starlink satellite launch from Cape
Canaveral, Florida, the same evening about one hour prior to the sighting. This sighting
occurred in the known orbital path of the satellites. AARO is investigating if other unresolved
cases may be attributed to the expansion of the Starlink and other mega-constellations in low
earth orbit.

In many other cases, birds are commonly misidentified as UAP due to sensor artifacts
resulting from compression and pixilation that often renders the object as an amorphous blob or
orb. Electro-optical/infrared sensor glare can also cause distorted pixilation of the object's true
shape. Moreover, full-motion video (FMV) analysis, consistent with other confirmed examples
of birds in flight, commonly display birds as "flickering" objects. This phenomena captured by
FMV is indicative of flapping wings.

Their report definitely leans heavily on the lack of actionable data. But if we can only look at the data that gets declassified and released, we're basically stuck in a loop where every unresolved case automatically becomes a LIZ case by default.
I was just reflecting on the "really anomalous" quote by Kirkpatrick, since he kept those two categories separate (LIZ vs "truly anomalous") instead of dumping everything into one category.
But sure, I can't really say what he really meant there.