This seems to be a common thread for media sourced from the UAPTF.This media was digitally altered before being reported to AARO, and is presented as it was received.
The ones with the least information are the most likely to remain unidentified, perhapsThis seems to be a common thread for media sourced from the UAPTF.
There are some videos there too which are also at the bottom of the barrel:The ones with the least information are the most likely to remain unidentified, perhaps
Edited to add: the first thing I see when going to Flarkey's first link are a set of artistic and digital recreations. Does this suggest they're scraping the bottom of the barrel interms of imagery to release?
I love the distribution list in the .pdf, just about everybody everywhere in government was on it.DOW-UAP-PR117 to DOW-UAP-PR122 are the same event, the report give speed estimates :
View attachment 92527
(https://www.war.gov/medialink/ufo/r...R_Unresolved-UAP-Report-Gulf-of-Oman_2021.pdf)
Do we know how TACTOOL works and if it can be used to get reasonable speed estimates in this context?
"ambiguous shit" is the defining, pre requisite characteristic for the video to be included in these releases.It seems like they really are doing a serious effort to redact every piece of information possible, in order to give us the most ambiguous shit ever.
Some of them have some screen data."ambiguous shit" is the defining, pre requisite characteristic for the video to be included in these releases.
From an intel analysis perspective - anything "identifiable" has intelligence value so if someone asks for your "unidentified" file - they will invariably end up with videos of balloons/birds and artifacts.
The ones appearing to move "erratically" are cropped to a level where you just see the "object" and whole pieces of background are blacked out.
Those videos are "chopped up" to a level that does not justify a simple poor data collection in my view.Those entries contain the disclaimer that they were digitally altered prior to their transfer to AARO, and that they were secondary captures from sensor displays. The cropping may have nothing to do with security considerations; it may simply reflect poor data collection at the point of capture, whether from in-camera effects or alterations made somewhere along the chain of custody. It speaks volumes that materials with these provenance problems are cited by the online UFO commentariat as prime examples of footage showing intentional behavior or so-called "physics-defying" capabilities.
In my view, this pattern of assigning outsized evidentiary weight to low-information media also supports the theory that UAP, as a category, consists primarily of incidents that observers judged unusual based on limited information rather than incidents that evince intrinsically mysterious phenomena.
There are UFO believers in the pentagon, and UFO believers in Congress, and UFO believers among the general public.There's not a great push to kill the conspiracy theories, because they'd offend the people who believe in them ...and that would be seen as another conspiracy theory. It's a no-win situation.Debunking kills "mysteries", why wouldn't the pentagon also help a bit to kill these conspiracy theories about aliens providing at least some data?
That's actually what is more worrying, especially when coupled with weird supposed UFO-hazing rituals in the DoD programs.There are UFO believers in the pentagon, and UFO believers in Congress, and UFO believers among the general public.There's not a great push to kill the conspiracy theories, because they'd offend the people who believe in them ...and that would be seen as another conspiracy theory. It's a no-win situation.
That hazing ritual I suspect was a carry-over from the Service Academies, where first-year cadets are assigned silly tasks to show their dedication to the system. Things like memorizing the serial number on the nose wheel of the aircraft on display at the Air Force Academy. All part of the system, very much like fraternity hazing rituals. "We had to go through this when we were new so you have to go through it when you are new."That's actually what is more worrying, especially when coupled with weird supposed UFO-hazing rituals in the DoD programs.
UFOs are a national security matter, just because unidentified stuff in the sky has to be identified if possible or at least categorized as such and filed.That hazing ritual I suspect was a carry-over from the Service Academies, where first-year cadets are assigned silly tasks to show their dedication to the system. Things like memorizing the serial number on the nose wheel of the aircraft on display at the Air Force Academy. All part of the system, very much like fraternity hazing rituals. "We had to go through this when we were new so you have to go through it when you are new."
Never saw anything like that on the civilian side of the classified world.
UFOs in the "who's messing around in our air space?" sense are a serious matter. I think it safe to say that UFOs in the "space alien" sense are not, and are a fitting subject for juvenile jokes.UFOs are a national security matter, just because unidentified stuff in the sky has to be identified if possible or at least categorized as such and filed.
These juvenile jokes seem pretty convincing for those who went to congress to talk about alien bodies.UFOs in the "who's messing around in our air space?" sense are a serious matter. I think it safe to say that UFOs in the "space alien" sense are not, and are a fitting subject for juvenile jokes.
Find UFOs: conspiracy theories.My claim is, all this PURSUE nonsense, and all the ambiguous shitty videos are fueling conspiracy theories.
The institutions are not managing this very well.
Although, wasting time and effort on the UFOs in a space alien context takes resources away from their actual role of protecting and defending against real threats. So is a matter of (weakening) national security.UFOs in the "who's messing around in our air space?" sense are a serious matter. I think it safe to say that UFOs in the "space alien" sense are not, and are a fitting subject for juvenile jokes.
Agreed.There are UFO believers in the pentagon, and UFO believers in Congress, and UFO believers among the general public.There's not a great push to kill the conspiracy theories, because they'd offend the people who believe in them ...and that would be seen as another conspiracy theory. It's a no-win situation.
Surely making government agents believe that some UFOs are potentially alien, when these could very well be the real UFOs even if prosaic (meaning a real security problem) won't have negative consequences at all (I'm being sarcastic).Although, wasting time and effort on the UFOs in a space alien context takes resources away from their actual role of protecting and defending against real threats. So is a matter of (weakening) national security.
UFOs are a national security matter, just because unidentified stuff in the sky has to be identified if possible or at least categorized as such and filed.
Thinking that people in the DoD are playing around that subject is pretty worrying IMHO.
Nor are UFOs the only woo topic to get official attention, for example:It's nothing new.
Source: https://www.cia.gov/stories/story/ask-molly-did-cia-really-study-psychic-powers/External Quote:
According to our historians, from very early in CIA's history we had been interested in investigating whether "extra sensory perception" (ESP) or other paranormal phenomena (generally called "parapsychology") exist and, if so, whether they had operational uses for intelligence.
The earliest record our historians have found on this topic is a 1948 memorandum speculating on whether hypnotized people could be used for long-distance communication.
We didn't, however, conduct our own research into psychic phenomena until the summer of 1972. We worked with scientists and researchers to investigate whether certain people could "see" locations and objects around the world, without actually being there. This ability is known as "remote viewing."
CIA ended this research five years later in 1977, and we turned the program over to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). The project became known as STARGATE, which was actually DIA's initial name for this program. Later, it was renamed GRILL FLAME.
In the mid-1990s, DIA handed the program back to CIA. We agreed to take another look at the program on the condition that an independent study group would evaluate it. Four researchers from the American Institute for Research published their findings in September 1995, and that report is available on the Internet: a Google search on "An Evaluation of Remote Viewing" will turn up the 183-page document.
That report's conclusion—which echoed the assessments of the CIA officers involved in the program during the 1970s—was that enough accurate remote viewing experiences existed to defy randomness, but that the phenomenon was too unreliable, inconsistent, and sporadic to be useful for intelligence purposes. We decided not to restore the program.
Soon after, at the request of Congress, we agreed to review the program and declassify records for the public. We worked closely with DIA and the U.S. Army to gather all relevant records, and we placed the entire collection of declassified records from all three organizations on CIA.gov in the FOIA Electronic Reading Room, which you can access here.
I have read that the USSR was also into this stuff, but have never known how reliable that claim is.
FOMO is a great motivator, and the more the other guys appear to be onto something the more some on your side will demand you mimic the other sides efforts.There was certainly a FOMO that got the Army/CIA into Psy. And those early "experiments" involved Russel Targ and Hal Puthoff who went on to be an influential member of the Skinwalker Ranch crowd, part of AAWSAP, a designer of the failed KONA BLUE program, and was sent by Christopher Mellon to be a "whistle-blower" to AARO about alien crash retrieval programs. Project Stargate, Grill Flame* and those old Psy experiments are a part of the current file releases.
* Project Grill Flame has got to be one of the best names yet for a secret operation. Certainly top 10.
I would be surprised if there was not similar misdirection going on now. With the internet the cost to tease, lure or bait an organization into wasting money is too small to pass up.Is it possible some of the modern UFO interest is similar misdirection? Heck if I know.
Definitely getting into "letters mailed in for public comment" territory, like half of the Kennedy assassination archive.Is it me or is there really nothing of interest in this latest drop?
I cannot decide if the 'artist renderings' are supposed to be a joke or taken seriously, but they kind of remind me of something shown on the history channel. The videos show nothing new.
I have read that the USSR was also into this stuff, but have never known how reliable that claim is... it is possible I guess that both sided were faking interest in order to lure the other side into squandering resources. Is it possible some of the modern UFO interest is similar misdirection? Heck if I know.
The "going to Congress" bit is self-selection bias: those who are unconvinced by the hazing ritual never speak up. That's why it's generally our experience that when you find someone with a sighting or similar, it tends to turn out they've been into the subject before. You find what you are looking for, and you believe what you are ready to believe.These juvenile jokes seem pretty convincing for those who went to congress to talk about alien bodies.
Must be a hell of a hazing ritual.
Edit:
My claim is, all this PURSUE nonsense, and all the ambiguous shitty videos are fueling conspiracy theories.
The institutions are not managing this very well.
It's the LIZ conundrum: everything that's identifiable gets identified (as "not aliens"), so we get left with the ambiguous because the data is too crappy to be identified."ambiguous shit" is the defining, pre requisite characteristic for the video to be included in these releases.
From an intel analysis perspective - anything "identifiable" has intelligence value so if someone asks for your "unidentified" file - they will invariably end up with videos of balloons/birds and artifacts.
UFOs are in the LIZ, this I understand.The "going to Congress" bit is self-selection bias: those who are unconvinced by the hazing ritual never speak up. That's why it's generally our experience that when you find someone with a sighting or similar, it tends to turn out they've been into the subject before. You find what you are looking for, and you believe what you are ready to believe.
If you have a recipe for "managing" irrational beliefs, you ought to publish it, because not a lot of people know how to accomplish this.
It's the LIZ conundrum: everything that's identifiable gets identified (as "not aliens"), so we get left with the ambiguous because the data is too crappy to be identified.
With anything else (like undiscovered animal species), it might start out with rumors and unreliable witness reports (unicorns? sea monsters?), some of which get corroborated by those looking for evidence, adding increasingly better evidence to the record until the beast is discovered.
This is entirely unlike the progression on aliens evidence, because there is no such progression.
UAP videos are ipso facto ambiguous, because if they were identifiable, they'd already be identified. Because there is no alien tech zipping around in our air.
(I'd be very embarrassing if one of these unidentified objects were actually a foreign craft; because if that foreign power could ascertain that their craft remained unidentified, they'd know something valuable about how to avoid US intelligence. I think that's what the stringent redactions are trying to prevent.)
More about the LIZ:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ar...st-in-the-low-information-zone-the-liz.10921/
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ufo-acronyms-what-is-the-liz.11742/
If you have a recipe for "managing" irrational beliefs, you ought to publish it, because not a lot of people know how to accomplish this.
Imagine this, some of these UFOs could be foreign craft (much more than aliens for sure), which means a security problem, and then you have hazing rituals about aliens.
Is it really better to have DoD officials convinced of aliens instead of possible foreign craft?
I would imagine the vast majority of people in the DoD and Intel world tasked with identifying and keeping track of foreign technology do just that. Likely very competently. The suggestion made by many, I'm not including you, in the UFO world is that every unidentified blob in a blurry video MAY be an advanced foreign aircraft and therefore shouldn't be dismissed as something in the LIZ. As I said up thread, this is a Strawman.
IF these various blobs and orbs in the LIZ represent advanced foreign assets, then who's? There's really only 4 adversarial nations that one can even suggest might have advanced aircraft, and when looked at individually, the argument becomes even more tenuous.
Developing and deploying any aircraft, is a daunting task, even more so if we're talking about supposedly highly advanced ones. The world wide commercial airliner industry for anything over ~100 passengers is handled by 2 companies, Boeing and Airbus. Even in the US, advanced military aircraft are largely produced by just 2 companies, Lockheed-Martin and Nothrup-Grumman. Advanced aircraft design, construction and deployment requires an existing physical infrastructure as well as an advanced knowledge base.
- Russia: The Soviet's may have produced some advanced, for the time, aircraft in the '70s-'80s, but that was decades ago. The current Russian Aerospace Force has yet to establish air superiority over Ukraine in 4 years. Their most advanced aircraft, the Su-57 Felon, has seen sporadic use in Ukraine. The Russians have between 20-30 Su-57 while Algeria has 2. India dropped out of the Su-57 program due to problems with the plane. The Russian drones that swarm Ukraine are largely imported from Iran. The idea that the Russians have super advanced aircraft, but keep it hidden except for when they get caught on some US surveillance system makes no sense.
- Iran: The Iranian Air Force has a collection of surplus US aircraft from the '70s. They manage to keep a few of these old F4s and F14s in the air, but they're not developing some sort of groundbreaking super advanced aircraft. Their drones are simple and rely on numbers, not advanced designs and capabilities.
- North Korea: The North Koreans have a number of Soviet era aircraft, including ~35 of the more advanced Mig-29s. They concentrate more on ICBMs that allow them to project threats. It's highly doubtful they are creating and deploying super advanced aircraft.
- China: Maybe China can deploy an advanced aircraft. Maybe. At least of the 4 listed here, they have the capabilities to possibly develop something, but even then, it's still going to be within the understood limits of physics.
In addition, as current conflicts have shown, simple drones and anit-aircraft SAM systems are far more effective for the economic input.
All of that to say, the idea that some scrappy guys in Iran are developing and deploying some sort of advanced, possibly physics defining, super aircraft out in an old hanger full of scavenged F4s, is borderline ludicrous. It also suggests that those with keeping up with this stuff, aren't or are incapable. Again, it's a giant Strawman argument put forth by UFO enthusiasts. They claim stuff in the LIZ could be foreign assets in an attempt to get it studied further, so that, when the blob is determined to not be Russian or Iranian, then it must be aliens.
I will grant you, there are always exceptions. In the case of the AAWSAP program, Jim Lacatski, a foreign rocket and missile analyst at the DIA, got caught up in the shenanigans at Skinwalker Ranch and authored AAWSAP to study UFOs and the paranormal. Did that influence his work as an analyst looking at foreign technology? Let's hope not, but either way, I think he's the exception.
We should remember that the government is not actually a monolith. Someone making an informed policy decision probably would not encourage the hazing ritual. And I imagine such people had nothing to do with its creation. The hazing is probably best seen as a failure of discipline.What I mean is that it could be unwise to convince people of aliens instead of "possible foreign spy balloons" or anything like that.
And also I don't see the point.
Let's just hope they're doing better controls to prevent this BS.We should remember that the government is not actually a monolith. Someone making an informed policy decision probably would not encourage the hazing ritual. And I imagine such people had nothing to do with its creation. The hazing is probably best seen as a failure of discipline.