Unidentified Objects/Balloons Intercepted by US aircraft

Get a similar figure just from $264 million contract to Raytheon to produce 571 missiles = $462,346 per missile.

But again, something feels off looking at it like that.
To me it does not look strange. These missiles are very advanced electro-mechanical-optical systems with a lot of R&D behind it, and that is what you pay for. Also factor in the fact that they work for government contracts, which are usually significant more costly. You may wish that the request to tender from the Government includes "as cheap as possible", but usually it is the opposite.
 
To me it does not look strange. These missiles are very advanced electro-mechanical-optical systems with a lot of R&D behind it, and that is what you pay for. Also factor in the fact that they work for government contracts, which are usually significant more costly. You may wish that the request to tender from the Government includes "as cheap as possible", but usually it is the opposite.
That's not really what I mean.

I can't argue that X/Y != Z.

The issue is I don't really know what I mean beyond it feeling off and I can only apologise for that.
 
That's not really what I mean.

I can't argue that X/Y != Z.

The issue is I don't really know what I mean beyond it feeling off and I can only apologise for that.
It's the lure of the rabbit hole. Resist! ;)

Accept that reality is sometimes not intuitive.

(What feels off to me is that AAWSAP received 50 missiles worth of money to chase werewolves and commission ~40 fringe physics papers.)
 
It's the lure of the rabbit hole. Resist! ;)

Accept that reality is sometimes not intuitive.

(What feels off to me is that AAWSAP received 50 missiles worth of money to chase werewolves and commission ~40 fringe physics papers.)
Oh man, I'm not trying to create a conspiracy out of it.

But I imagine a fair chunk of that $264 million ends up back in the economy. Like, peoples' wages will be paid from that and those wages get taxed. Those wages buy stuff that gets taxed. In some way it keeps the economy going.

But I know less about economics than I do about science.
 
...so around $2,000,000, per info Mendel shared in #195.
Plus the search operation.
Depending on how you do your bookkeeping, essentially free, since it could replace training exercises or at least proficiency flying hours (is that the correct term?) that would otherwise have to be done.

Tens of millions may be low.
Or something in the range of an order of magnitude too high.
 
Oh man, I'm not trying to create a conspiracy out of it.

But I imagine a fair chunk of that $264 million ends up back in the economy. Like, peoples' wages will be paid from that and those wages get taxed. Those wages buy stuff that gets taxed. In some way it keeps the economy going.

But I know less about economics than I do about science.
I understand. It is downright shameful how sometimes money gets allocated for things everyone knows will be useless.. It is because the people deciding on these things decide on money that is not theirs and is coming in anyway. Also these people's career depends more on how much they spend and not per se how successful it was.
I guess this happens also and perhaps even more, in US gov environments.
 
Last edited:
Oh man, I'm not trying to create a conspiracy out of it.
I'm sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that you were. (Hence the smiley. ;) )
But that same feeling, that there's something counterintuitive that feels "off", does lead some people into rabbit holes.
But I imagine a fair chunk of that $264 million ends up back in the economy. Like, peoples' wages will be paid from that and those wages get taxed. Those wages buy stuff that gets taxed. In some way it keeps the economy going.

But I know less about economics than I do about science.
And a fair chunk goes to shareholders who stash it in the Bahamas.
Article:
George F. Kennan wrote in his preface to Norman Cousins's 1987 book The Pathology of Power, "Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military–industrial complex would have to remain, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented. Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy."[21]

There's a lot written about the MIC, wikipedia is just a starting point.
 
And a fair chunk goes to shareholders who stash it in the Bahamas.
Now THAT'S a rabbit hole (and not a conspiracy one).

I'll pass on diving down there.

I dunno, it seems like saying it costs $X (not the formerly known as twitter) here is similar to moaning about how much NASA costs (for taxpayers) but all I ultimately know is that it is more complicated than that. Although one major difference between military and NASA is military still costs taxpayer if they are doing absolutely nothing (maybe even more if you consider maintenance, the cost of maintaining a used missile is $0). So moaning about costs of them doing their job seems weird to me.
 
So moaning about costs of them doing their job seems weird to me.
That's politics.

It started here:
Yes as a US Citizen and US Taxpayer I have a legitimate need to know what our Military is blowing out of our skies, and spending presumably tens of millions of taxpayer dollars in a intercept/shootdown and "failed" recovery operation.

I don't need every last detail about sources and methods just a basic summary of the TRUTH of these incidents. I also DEMAND that the appropriate elected representatives get the FULL classified report.
Basically, "because it was so expensive, they have to tell the public what it was", which they did, except for the ones they couldn't find, so presumably more money should've been spent on those searches?

I must admit I don't really follow the logic of it.

But yeah, government doing its job costs money, that's how it works.
 
In other words, what would it take to answer your questions to your satisfaction?
It is true I don't trust the government because they lie all the time. It would satisfy me if the Executive branch (the FBI in this case) provided their full report to the Legislative branch (gang of 8 at minimum). And a member of the gang of 8 gave some summary of what the report said to me in the public.

If the FBI tries to fabricate/lie in their report they would face consequences from the Judicial branch.

It is called checks and balances.
 
Basically, "because it was so expensive, they have to tell the public what it was", which they did, except for the ones they couldn't find, so presumably more money should've been spent on those searches?
But I don't really buy the expensive part.

I personally doubt that day cost $2 million more than the average day.

And considering the $876.94 billion that Google tells me was spent on the military in 2022 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/272473/us-military-spending-from-2000-to-2012/), it doesn't even make a mark even if it did.
 
Lots in this thread, but what was the final US statement on the AK shoot down recovery? Is it still that nothing was recovered?

UAP #20 referenced above is the AK object shot down on 2/10/23, this statement reads as if it was recovered but "exploitation" has not completed.

"The full exploitation of UAP#20, which was engaged by the U.S. on February 10,2023, has not yet been completed"

Is it just that the DoD's definition of "exploitation" also includes recovery?
 
It is true I don't trust the government because they lie all the time. It would satisfy me if the Executive branch (the FBI in this case) provided their full report to the Legislative branch (gang of 8 at minimum). And a member of the gang of 8 gave some summary of what the report said to me in the public.
And you'd trust those members of the government if it gave you that information, but you don't trust the government? What if the answers you got were "We don't know" and "We didn't find that"?
 
Is it just that the DoD's definition of "exploitation" also includes recovery?
Good catch. I usually hear the phrase "recovery and exploitation". Exploitation typically means analysis. But it is not clear.

I really hope the people up in Canada do some more FOIAs. At least Canada is producing SOME documents unlike down here in the good old USA where we have not seen scrap of paper from our requests.
 
"The full exploitation of UAP#20, which was engaged by the U.S. on February 10,2023, has not yet been completed"

Is it just that the DoD's definition of "exploitation" also includes recovery?
You'd have to ask them.
Allegedly they had tracked the object and would have exploited any signals it emitted, and the analysis of that data may not have been complete at the time the memo was written.
 
I can't be the only person thinking it'd be cool getting a pico balloon shot down and it causing all this rumpus. And I doubt they're all as bone idle or scared of the consequences as me either. Its not beyond the realms of possibility there's a youtube channel working on it now.

I'd like to think there's a limited window as instruments are tuned and lessons learnt. Although how you differentiate between a friendly pico balloon and an unfriendly one, I don't know.
 
Some interesting estimates from Scientific American here.

According to a statement issued last week by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), nearly 1,000 weather balloons, laden with battery-operated sensors, launch each and every day. They soar for a couple of hours before bursting at high altitude and air-dropping their data-packed payloads back to Earth via parachute.

The numbers for hobbyist launches of pico balloons are harder to come by. But according to estimates from Bill Brown, a high-altitude ballooning expert and a rocket engineer at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, student organizations and ham radio groups around the world launch at least a few hundred pico balloons each year, with most originating from the U.S. and Europe. “There are about 20 to 30 amateur-radio pico balloons flying at any given day worldwide and around three or four traveling across North America daily,” Brown says.
Content from External Source
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/did-the-pentagon-shoot-down-a-harmless-ham-radio-balloon/

So there could be numerous, harmless weather balloons and a handful of picoballoons at any one time over the US, and any number of toy balloons launched by accident or design following parties and other celebrations. Aside from the large Chinese balloon, the chances that these objects shot down by the US were anything other than innocent balloons is miniscule.
 
the chances that these objects shot down by the US were anything other than innocent balloons is miniscule
That is your opinion. I actually think the chances that millions have been spent responding to pico balloons is small. They would be easy to identify both visually/FLIR and with radar and with radio tracking. They are common legal air objects. IMHO
 
Sure they are commonplace, but they were also deliberately filtered out by radar software so that they didn't appear as false returns on DOD radar screens. By removing those filters suddenly a significant number of unknown objects appeared - and these were promptly shot down.

To be honest it was a remarkable feat of military technology - finding and hitting such small targets would have been challenging a few decades ago- but with the increasingly important role of drone warfare in the current era, I think pilots and radar systems are going to have to concentrate on this sort of target in future.
 
They would be easy to identify both visually/FLIR and with radar and with radio tracking.
Can you support this claim with evidence?

Pico balloons are slow, small, and transmit in rare bursts; it seems to me they'd be hard to track, or identify visually from a fast-moving jet. And a radar track helps little with identification, beyond "it moves with the wind".
 
That is your opinion. I actually think the chances that millions have been spent responding to pico balloons is small. They would be easy to identify both visually/FLIR and with radar and with radio tracking. They are common legal air objects. IMHO.
I think we get you don't believe these were pico/hobbiest balloons. What then, IYHO, do you think they were? Alien craft? Intel platforms launched by foreign governments? Interdimensional craft? Or are you just betting the field?

I'm also curious what response(s) you received from your Congressional rep and/or Senator(s) when you brought your concerns/opinions relative to this matter to their attention?
 
I think we get you don't believe these were pico/hobbiest balloons. What then, IYHO, do you think they were? Alien craft? Intel platforms launched by foreign governments? Interdimensional craft? Or are you just betting the field?
Please don't invite speculation. We're looking for facts.
I'm also curious what response(s) you received from your Congressional rep and/or Senator(s) when you brought your concerns/opinions relative to this matter to their attention?
I'm still hoping for the response to his invisible IR flare query to Northrop Grumman.
 
Please don't invite speculation. We're looking for facts.
I agree with the statement in general, but in this instance it goes to Arthur's insistence that the government is lying to him. That leads to the inevitable conclusion that he thinks he knows but just can't get the gov't to admit it. Knowing what is in his mind would be helpful in resolving the matter.
 
I agree with the statement in general, but in this instance it goes to Arthur's insistence that the government is lying to him. That leads to the inevitable conclusion that he thinks he knows but just can't get the gov't to admit it. Knowing what is in his mind would be helpful in resolving the matter.
I disagree. Facts and evidence matter. Speculation does not.
 
Although one major difference between military and NASA is military still costs taxpayer if they are doing absolutely nothing (maybe even more if you consider maintenance, the cost of maintaining a used missile is $0). So moaning about costs of them doing their job seems weird to me.
NASA has the same "idle costs" as the military. Everything does.

It cost something like $70 million to store MSL Curiosity after it missed its launch window.
 
And a radar track helps little with identification, beyond "it moves with the wind".
I think this is a point we could get some additional facts about. It is my understanding that various different radar platforms have the ability to recognized "signatures" of known objects. It provides more information than location and speed/trajectory.

I will do some digging, but if anyone here knows more about radar feel free to chime in.
 
I think this is a point we could get some additional facts about. It is my understanding that various different radar platforms have the ability to recognized "signatures" of known objects. It provides more information than location and speed/trajectory.

I will do some digging, but if anyone here knows more about radar feel free to chime in.
Article:
Radar cross-section (RCS), denoted σ, also called radar signature, is a measure of how detectable an object is by radar. A larger RCS indicates that an object is more easily detected.

In general, RCS is a function of the orientation of the radar and target. A target's RCS depends on its size, reflectivity of its surface, and the directivity of the radar return caused by the target's geometric shape.

A radar sends a pulse out. From the timing of the reflection it computes the distance, from the frequency of the reflection it can compute a speed (or simply track a target to get its speed), and the power of the reflection is the "signature": if a lot of power comes back, it's either a big object, or a very reflective one.

Balloons sometimes have radar reflectors attached to make them more visible.
And obviously a typical balloon would reflect the same amount in every direction.
 
Last edited:
This is from Chat GPT.

  1. Shape Reconstruction: To reconstruct the shape of an object using radar, advanced signal processing techniques are employed. These techniques involve analyzing the radar data, such as the amplitude, phase, and frequency information of the reflected waves, to extract features that can be used to create a representation of the object's shape. Algorithms and mathematical models are used to interpret the radar data and reconstruct the object's geometry.
 
This is from Chat GPT.

  1. Shape Reconstruction: To reconstruct the shape of an object using radar, advanced signal processing techniques are employed. These techniques involve analyzing the radar data, such as the amplitude, phase, and frequency information of the reflected waves, to extract features that can be used to create a representation of the object's shape. Algorithms and mathematical models are used to interpret the radar data and reconstruct the object's geometry.
ChatGPT is not a reliable source.
Searching for radar shape reconstruction, Google gives me experimental studies where cloud shapes are constructed from weather radar, or asteroid shapes computed from long-duration radar observation data.

There is no radar technology at present that would help to identify pico balloons, beyond the parameters I've outlined above.
 
NASA has the same "idle costs" as the military. Everything does.

It cost something like $70 million to store MSL Curiosity after it missed its launch window.

Cost is mostly a function of who's charging.

Until 2010, Boeing charged an average of $300 for a trash container used in the E-3 Sentry, a surveillance and radar plane based on the 707 civilian airliner. When the 707 fell out of use in the United States, the trash can was no longer a “commercial” item, meaning that Boeing was not obligated to keep its price at previous levels, according to a weapons industry source who spoke to RS [= Responsible Statecraft].

In 2020, the Pentagon paid Boeing over $200,000 for four of the trash cans, translating to roughly $51,606 per unit.
Content from External Source
-- https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/20/the-pentagons-52000-trash-can/
 
An interesting page here about radar signatures. Particularly important are doppler signatures from moving parts in the motors, which can help to identify the make and model of an unknown aircraft.


Much more important for the respective radar signature are special Doppler frequencies through parts moving at or in the target, e.g. rotor blades or compressor blades of the engines, which also gave these modulations their name: Jet Engine Modulation (JEM). These Doppler frequencies depend on the number of parts and their rotational speed. Due to the rotation, these parts constantly change the instantaneous radial velocity in relation to the radar and are concealed at certain angles of rotation. Their rotation thus produces a characteristic pattern of Doppler frequencies. All Doppler frequencies must be measured and correlated with the image in the database. Like a fingerprint, these can be used to identify the aircraft type.
Content from External Source
https://www.radartutorial.eu/01.basics/rb66.en.html

To identify a particular drone or even a weather balloon, these signatures need to be on file. I suspect that a lot of drone models won't be in the database yet, and probably most weather balloons and picoballoons won't be on file yet, either. Perhaps these shoot-downs were good practice.
 
To identify a particular drone or even a weather balloon, these signatures need to be on file. I suspect that a lot of drone models won't be in the database yet, and probably most weather balloons and picoballoons won't be on file yet, either. Perhaps these shoot-downs were good practice.
In addition, balloons typically don't have fast-moving parts that can generate a Doppler signature.

Consumer drones tend to have plastic blades which are all but invisible to radar and wouldn't generate much of a Doppler signature for that reason.
 
This oil worker up in Deadhorse Alaska (Backcountry Alaska) was making daily videos showing the massive recovery operation.
Well, he might have been seeing the search, not a recovery operation per se.
Once it's snowed over, or rimed over in the fog, the debris is also white.
If the debris is of modest size and distributed over a wide area, even a modest snowfall would make it very difficult to find.
 
NASA has the same "idle costs" as the military. Everything does.

It cost something like $70 million to store MSL Curiosity after it missed its launch window.
I don't doubt that but my comment was more about their primary roles.

Like, if nasa was doing naff all then it'd be shut down (based on the assumption that nasa does actually do stuff and isn't just a money laundering front).

Of course my view here of military doing naff all is very simplistic and ripe for pulling apart.

But ultimately I'm just commenting on the use of what appear to be big numbers to the average person to get some (probably negative) response when in context the numbers aren't that big and it seldom isn't more complicated than it appears (such as my military doing naff all point).
 
Of course my view here of military doing naff all is very simplistic and ripe for pulling apart.
City firefighters tend to sit around the station 24/7 (they do live there) doing naff all, waiting for a call to come in.
And you don't want calls to come in, because that's more expensive for everyone, and lives may be lost. But you also don't want to not pay the firefighters for doing naff all, because if you don't have them when you need them, it gets even more expensive.

For more parallels to the military, some fire fighting units operate boats and aircraft, and some go on international missions. But they rarely fight other firefighters—and neither does NASA.
 
In my experience with firefighters in the UK, when not attending incidents they are training and also promoting fire safety, fitting smoke alarms etc.

There was a small house fire recently in our street and the fire brigade visited the local properties with free fire alarms and fitted them for people without the ability to do so themselves and also gave us the usual lecture on electric appliances and kitchen fires etc.

They also seem to largely attend road traffic collisions and a lot of their work is freeing people from cars and ensuring fires don't start after vehicle collisions.
 
In my experience with firefighters in the UK, when not attending incidents they are training and also promoting fire safety, fitting smoke alarms etc.
Personnel who are off on a training course for additional qualifications are not on shift.
There was a small house fire recently in our street and the fire brigade visited the local properties with free fire alarms and fitted them for people without the ability to do so themselves and also gave us the usual lecture on electric appliances and kitchen fires etc.
You may want to inquire if the personnel doing community outreach is on shift while they're doing that.
They also seem to largely attend road traffic collisions and a lot of their work is freeing people from cars and ensuring fires don't start after vehicle collisions.
That's part of their job, yes. It's still intermittent work.
 
In my experience with firefighters in the UK, when not attending incidents they are training and also promoting fire safety, fitting smoke alarms etc.
In the USA, at least in my area, they are also trained as emergency medical technicians. I see them almost daily, out and about with the ambulance but seldom with the fire truck.
 
Well, he might have been seeing the search, not a recovery operation per se.

If the debris is of modest size and distributed over a wide area, even a modest snowfall would make it very difficult to find.

And it doesn't even require snow fall, merely drifting.
 
Back
Top