Ukrainian Plane Crashes in Flames in Tehran - Shot Down By Iran's IRGC


Senior Member

the very new report is consistent with other world news sites
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Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member
I'm not at all an expert, but here's my guess as to the basic situation:

The number of Iranian personnel behind this is pretty small. Perhaps the crew of a single mobile unit. They are only partially trained. They were given the most basic directives, which they interpreted as, "Shoot at whatever crosses into your zone." They were not capable of seeing the bigger tactical picture, because they had limited equipment and/or limited knowledge of the equipment. I'm guessing their mobile unit was meant for a limited area of a hot combat zone, not for the general defense of a large area, and lacks the capability to provide a big picture.

They are basically incapable of abstract thought, but were not given the training and procedures to guide them through a complex scenario. They should have been given specific and simple directives from a sophisticated, interconnected system of specialized units. But either they had no effective communication with such a system, or there was no such system. They were on their own.

They may have been either seeking glory, or scared of not following orders and letting something through. And they were over-tired from being on constant alert for days on end. (Or they could have been third rate replacements for a first line but exhausted crew.) The limited range of their weapon put extreme time constraints on them. They had no time to put together any real awareness of the situation.

All this means that the direction of travel, speed, altitude, etc. - or even transponder - meant nothing to them. They had no way to realize it was a commercial airliner that had just taken off from a local airport. It was just something in their zone.
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Agent K

Active Member
It wouldn't be the first airliner that's been shot down by mistake. USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655, a Russian Buk shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine, the Soviet Union shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Ukraine shot down Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, etc.
On the other hand, TWA Flight 800 crashed due to a fuel tank explosion, but there are conspiracy theories that it was shot down.
Metabunk has threads about airplanes being mistaken for UFOs, drones, and even missiles by people who should know better.
And it wasn't the first airliner that Iran fired on by mistake.