Travis Walton case: Crew boss confesses hoax

[John J.]

And the mystery pilot who responded on the radio reportedly said, " "We're Canadian Snowbirds flying Tutors. We're headed to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base." (in Fitzgerald article). It seems likely that the word "Canadian" was not actually said, but assumed upon hearing the word "Snowbirds".

But Fitzgerald in SUNlite concluded that they were Canadian. In fact it's a key part of his "solution"

The hypothesis that aircraft might have been responsible for the flying "V" is not dependent on Tim Printy's proposed solution (that the Snowbirds aerobatics team was responsible), it just requires the presence of aircraft that might have flown in a "V" formation.
Fighters taking position for in-flight refuelling might be another possibility, trailing a tanker behind each wing.
We know there were military aircraft exercising in the region, roughly 2 hours after the first "V" sighting they were dropping flares.

A-10s (straight wings), F-16s (delta wings) in "V"s:

@Robert Sheaffer's suggestion is interesting re. the exchange between American West 757 co-pilot John Middleton, ATC and an unidentified pilot:

the mystery pilot who responded on the radio reportedly said, " "We're Canadian Snowbirds flying Tutors. We're headed to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base." (in Fitzgerald article). It seems likely that the word "Canadian" was not actually said, but assumed upon hearing the word "Snowbirds"

Overhearing the exchange, someone claiming to be a pilot in the formation radioed Middleton. "We're Canadian Snowbirds flying Tutors," a man said... [Fitzgerald later added] "We're headed to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base."

Bad UFOs blog 23 January 2014 https://badufos.blogspot.com/2014/01/arizonas-amazing-telepathic-flying.html

Robert is proposing (correct me if I'm wrong!) that Middleton's account (or recall) is slightly inaccurate: That maybe an Operation Snowbird pilot responded and "Snowbird" was mentioned, but Middleton interpreted/ recalled that as a response from a RCAF Snowbirds pilot (and knew that the Snowbirds use Canadair Tutors).
I'd guess many people interested in aviation will have heard of the Snowbirds (just as they may have heard of the Blue Angels, Frecce Tricolori, Red Arrows etc.) but perhaps far fewer will have heard of Operation Snowbird.

Even if Middleton's account is partly inaccurate, it might be evidence of a group of military aircraft near Lake Pleasant, north of Phoenix, at 20:30; that an airliner crew (jokingly) referred to the sight as a UFO, and a pilot in that formation realised the 757 crew were referring to them.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

Everyone who saw the lights in binoculars or a telescope said they were planes.

In going through the NUFORC reports, I found 3 reports from witnesses who used binoculars and did not believe they were (jet) planes. These were all within a week of the event:

The object was seen on the northwestern horizon. It appeared as a horizontal line with a red glow. We arrived home and got some binoculars to see what it was. By this time it had changed color to a brilliant white and was in the shape of a triangle... There were five lights in all. The object moved from the northwest to the southeast, almost directly over head of our house... The formation of the five objects did not change as you would expect from aircraft. There was no change in spacing, no noise and it was as bright overhead as it was comming or going.

Source: NUFORC sighting 02070 (reported in 1997 from Ahwatukee Phx)

...four of us observed a v shaped object coming at us with bright lights. As it got closer we got out some binoculars and looked at it, what looked like white lights were actually two lights forming one. One light being green the other one was red. During this time the oddest thing about this, was there was no noise at all. There was no moon to backlight this so we could only see the lights. I thought perhaps because there was no noise that it might have been a pedal plane that I saw on the discovery channel once. It appeared to be about 1000 feet in the air.

Source: NUFORC sighting 02073 (reported in 1997 from Prescott)

...he was looking NW in the Hale-Bopp comet direction and saw a fuzzy light above the horizon. Too late for the comet so we got a pair of binoculars and WOW. 5 BRIGHT orange lights in a V formation. Not moving at first and then they were moving very slowly. ... We are interested in astronomy so we are usually looking at the sky. We know a plane from something wierd.

Source: NUFORC sighting 02058 (reported in 1997 from Kingman)

 

[Charlie Wiser]

We know there were military aircraft exercising in the region, roughly 2 hours after the first "V" sighting they were dropping flares.

Is the entire state of Arizona a "region"?

I need to add that there are other details from Mike's daughter about the hoax that I'm not speaking of here because she's still deciding how to release the info (which is both from his confession and writings, as well as inferences from his behavior), but it's leading me to seriously consider he made the hoax - and even if he didn't, that the hoax theory is worthwhile because the evidence can be fitted to it as easily as the plane theory can be fitted to it.

As I said up front, my main takeaway from reading ALL the NUFORC reports (there are 52 from 1997 to 2016 that relate to the first event) is that so many people reported it going slow and low over Phoenix, taking up to 15-20 minutes to fly overhead. As with any UFO case, it's easy to be taken in by summaries but going back to the original documents paints a different picture.

• 28 reports said it was going very slowly, slower than planes, or hovering at times (3 said very fast - all from Prescott not Phoenix - and the rest didn't mention speed
• 20 said solid object, some adamantly stating it blocked the stars or was blacker than the sky (6 said it was individual lights, not solid, the rest didn't mention)
• 7 sightings lasted 20 minutes or more, all from witnesses who had the impression it was moving slowly at low altitude

I'm not pointing this out as proof of a hoax, but as evidence that it wasn't planes - just as other reports can used as evidence it was planes.

 

[John J.]

Is the entire state of Arizona a "region"?

Well, the flares (not the cause of the earlier "V") were visible in Phoenix. Aircraft flares don't travel a long way from the point of release, so there were aircraft present near the flares. The northeast edge of the Barry M. Goldwater Air Force Range, just south of Gila Bend, is a little over 50 miles southwest from the centre of Phoenix; if the flares were dropped in that area it might not be unreasonable to say military aircraft were operating "in the region" of Phoenix, though I accept the term is imprecise (and maybe subjective).

The American West Boeing 757 was near Lake Pleasant at 20:30, approx. 20 miles north of Phoenix, though we don't know the distance or direction of the aircraft they sighted. Again though, it seems possible there were military aircraft operating within a few tens of miles of Phoenix- both to the north and south.

Sightings of the "V" at approx. 20:15 came from Paulden and Prescott Valley, north of Lake Pleasant (Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights), so maybe the aircraft seen by the 757 crew were responsible.

From approx. 20:30 to 20:45 the lights are seen from Glendale, Phoenix. If they flew over (or near) a town of 1.6 million people around that time for 15 minutes or so, it's surprising there are no good photos or footage that supports the more interesting eyewitness accounts.

If the Paulden, Prescott Valley and Glendale accounts have accurate timings, and they are about the same craft and the craft is near to the observers (say within a couple of miles- some eyewitness reports have much closer estimates) then the responsible aircraft (or aircraft plural)), even if it took the most direct route, must be powered; Paulden is just over 50 miles from Glendale so it is travelling at 200+ mph. If it moved slower than this at times, it must have moved faster than 200 mph at others. (A-10s can fly at 200 mph, stall speed is 138mph). It cannot be a balloon-type craft.

I doubt that either the military aircraft or the hoax aircraft theories will be able to explain all the eyewitness accounts, but that often seems to be the case in major UFO sightings even where a plausible explanation emerges.

I also doubt that Michael Rogers built a large-ish (say a few metres wingspan/ width- let's put down eyewitness reports of larger craft down to misperception/ poor estimation) silent 200+ mph aircraft which he then sent on a one-way trip for a laugh. Most Cessna-type light aircraft can't reach 200 mph, and they're not silent.
I guess it's possible a number of lighter-than-air craft with lights could be launched (and retrieved) at different locations to a schedule, to give the impression of a craft travelling, but this requires several hoaxers and aircraft, a literal multiplying of entities.


A bit off-topic, I noticed something curious in the account of Tim Ley, a witness along with wife Bobbi in Prescott Valley. He's sometimes quoted as saying the lights resembled a 60 degree carpenter's square, but he also clearly describes an arc or curve of 5 lights changing shape into a "V". He also- interestingly I think- describes the arc as

...like something between a small arc and the Greek letter Omega.

How do 5 lights make an "omega" ( Ω) ? After the formation changes shape

...the lights looked like the letter A, without the bar across, which would be the Greek letter "Alpha". ...It was very clearly an Alpha pattern, although at the time we thought in terms of a "V" formation

"Tim Ley Family -- Eyewitness of 3/13/97 Arizona UFO Flyover Called 'Phoenix Lights'", UFO Evidence, Tim Ley 1998 http://ufoevidence.org/documents/doc1272.htm

Wow, 5 lights change formation from omega to alpha... not just a curve to a V. What might this mean? And 5 lights are "clearly" an Alpha, Α, without a crossbar, not a V.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

Well, the flares (not the cause of the earlier "V") were visible in Phoenix.

What I meant was, I don't see why the same aircraft would fly in formation from Paulden (or NV by some accounts) all the way to Phoenix and then drop flares at the Barry Goldwater range.

Sightings of the "V" at approx. 20:15 came from Paulden and Prescott Valley, north of Lake Pleasant (Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights), so maybe the aircraft seen by the 757 crew were responsible.

The V was also seen all over Phoenix 8.15PM (instantaneous travel?), and up in Prescott at 6PM - so I think what that tells is that the times don't mean too much.

From approx. 20:30 to 20:45 the lights are seen from Glendale, Phoenix. If they flew over (or near) a town of 1.6 million people around that time for 15 minutes or so, it's surprising there are no good photos or footage that supports the more interesting eyewitness accounts.

That would be half an hour, from 8:15 to 8:45 - they'd have to be circling to remain over Phoenix for that long. Nobody said the V-shape was circling. Again, this just means the times don't mean much. Prescott to South Mountain (where many said they lost sight of it, south of Phoenix) is 80 miles, so at winds of 70-90mph in the jet stream that could be as little as 60 minutes - which matches the sighting times if you allow them to be flexible.

With the later reports (including those submitted years later) I have to wonder if people were assigning their sightings to either 8PM or 10PM, knowing by then that there were two separate incidents, and not worrying about being more accurate (if they could even remember). Certainly NUFORC's notes on the sightings shows that NUFORC changed the times (even the dates) if they felt a report matched a particular sighting.

I doubt that either the military aircraft or the hoax aircraft theories will be able to explain all the eyewitness accounts, but that often seems to be the case in major UFO sightings even where a plausible explanation emerges.

True, it will never match them all. That's one reason I think a confession is worth something, if the described construction of the craft can be shown to be plausible and to match a good percentage the sightings.

Wow, 5 lights change formation from omega to alpha... not just a curve to a V. What might this mean? And 5 lights are "clearly" an Alpha, Α, without a crossbar, not a V.

It's probably the viewing angle along with his brain joining the dots?

 

[John J.]

Agreed that the timings of at least some of the reports might be inaccurate.

...so at winds of 70-90mph in the jet stream that could be as little as 60 minutes - which matches the sighting times if you allow them to be flexible.

To be carried by the jet stream, a hypothetical balloon would have to be quite high up. Any single balloon/ aircraft at jet stream altitudes would have to be very, very large to be mistaken for a large flying object at low altitude, or for 5-7 separate lights on it to be easily resolvable:

Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere, typically occurring around 30,000 feet (9,100 meters) in elevation.

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, The Jet Stream https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet-stream

The jet stream is a core of strong winds around 5 to 7 miles [8 - 11.3 km] above the Earth's surface, blowing from west to east.

Met Office (UK) https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/what-is-the-jet-stream

Wow, 5 lights change formation from omega to alpha... not just a curve to a V. What might this mean? And 5 lights are "clearly" an Alpha, Α, without a crossbar, not a V.

It's probably the viewing angle along with his brain joining the dots?

I think Mr Ley consistently describes 5 lights, and he says the spaces between them increased as they got closer. He describes them changing formation.

...now the lights looked like the letter A, without the bar across, which would be the Greek letter "Alpha"

The "Alpha" and "Omega" seem to me to be meanings he imposed on what he had seen; they don't really match what he described.

 

[JMartJr]

What I meant was, I don't see why the same aircraft would fly in formation from Paulden (or NV by some accounts) all the way to Phoenix and then drop flares at the Barry Goldwater range.

I don;t think there is any reason to suspect the planes dropping flares on the other side of the mountain were the same planes seen flying on the near side of the mountain earlier (assuming it was planes) seen flying earlier. I don't have enough plane-knowing to speak to whether the time and distance are possible for a flight of, say, A-10s, but there ought to be plenty of potential "teams" of planes in the area that night due to Snowbird, and for several of them to be in the air doing different things as the evening progressed.

Edited to add:
Charlie went on to say in the same post, but now it is not wanting me to quote her again:

"The V was also seen all over Phoenix 8.15PM (instantaneous travel?), and up in Prescott at 6PM - so I think what that tells is that the times don't mean too much."

I'd agree that time estimates may well be off for some/many reports. It is also possible that more than one stimulus generated reports, once people began to get excited either that evening or the next day when they hear there was a UFO about and recall the lights they saw the night before that might have been mildly interesting at the time but now seemed significant

 

[Charlie Wiser]

I've created this map based on MUFON reports between 1997 and 2016 along with Fitzgerald (1997). It excludes the one Kingman report (further NW towards Nevada).

Notes:

1. The lines are extremely approximate, with longer lines indicating a longer reported sighting (up to 20-30 mins). Many sightings were 5 mins and under. While NUFORC asks for the location, it's clear some people report where the sighting was seen from, and sometimes where they estimated the UFO actually was (or sometimes both).
2. Several reports from the Prescott area include the UFO making a sharp turn, which could indicate where the UFO was released from (if a hoax).
3. High fast planes being misperceived as a low slow huge UFO is the popular skeptical explanation, but a recurring description is how bright the lights were.

 

[Mendel]

I've created this map based on MUFON reports between 1997 and 2016 along with Fitzgerald (1997).

The width of the reporting corridor relates somewhat to the altitude of the lights. A higher altitude would be visible from farther off.

The map would profit from a scale, both distance and time (since the length of the lines is proportional to time?).

How did you locate the line laterally if the light was not reported passing directly overhead?

 

[JMartJr]

The map looks to me like something(s) flew in from the NW and picked up Highway I-17 at Spring Valley, followed that into Phoenix and picked up Highway I-10 and followed that away from town to the SE.

I am not a pilot,but I am aware of the joking reference to "I Follow Roads" navigation, and there may be practical reasons to follow highways across urban areas, especially when flying at a lower altitude (no skyscrapers in the highway, not over neighborhoods and such if you get into trouble, in an emergency I'd rather land on a highway than amongst a lot of buildings) plus something very recognizable as a navigation aid!

 

[Mendel]

The map looks to me like something(s) flew in from the NW and picked up Highway I-17 at Spring Valley, followed that into Phoenix and picked up Highway I-10 and followed that away from town to the SE.

Yes, but that's the fallacy that makes a lot of phenomena look like a population heatmap.
I'll bet you the majority of "highway reports" was made by people in cars.

 

[JMartJr]

I'll bet you the majority of "highway reports" was made by people in cars.

If so, thanwhere are the reports from people not on the highway?

Anecdotally, we have reason to think more people were out looking at the sky than normal for a chance to see the rather spectacular comet Hale-Bopp, accounting for a lot of people being in position to observe whatever the V formation of lights was (outside at night, looking up.). Presumably driving down the highway would not be the venue of choice for comet-watching! ^_^

If the lights were NOT following the highways (intentionally or coincidentally) and the cluster around the highway is artificial, emerging from where the viewer was rather than where the UFO was, I'd expect much fuzzier data from all the people who were not on the highway, but were in their back yards looking for a comet.

 

[NorCal Dave]

I've created this map based on MUFON reports between 1997 and 2016 along with Fitzgerald (1997). It excludes the one Kingman report (further NW towards Nevada).

While I have complete respect for your research skills, I think we need to be careful with this data. Any report made more than a year, if not a couple of months, is likely tainted. By that time the media coverage was already creating the canonical versions of the event, so subsequent reports can be confabulations and mash-ups that follow that version.

We also have the problem I've pointed out before, that reports to MUFON and NUFORC are inherently self selecting. While us UFO nerds here all know what a MUFON is, I'm pretty sure if we ask 10 people what is MUFON or NUFORC, we'll likely get 9 blank stares. Maybe 10. People that know what MUFON is, are into UFOs. People that report to MUFON are into, and often think they're reporting just that, a UFO. I would argue they are predisposed to NOT see a group of planes in formation as plane in formation. They are going to see UFOs, it's what they're looking for. It's why they know what MUFON and NUFORC is and they know they can report a UFO there.

If the aircraft were not using normal lights, they would look even more like a UFO, especially to people looking for UFOs (bold by me):

The first incident, often perceived as a large "flying triangle" by witnesses, began at approximately 8:00 p.m., and was due to five A-10 jets from Operation Snowbird following an assigned air traffic corridor and flying under visual flight rules. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rules concerning private and commercial aircraft do not apply to military aircraft, so the A-10 formation displayed steady formation lights rather than blinking collision lights. The formation flew over Phoenix and on to Tucson, landing at Davis-Monthan AFB at about 8:45 p.m.[5]​

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights

And if Rodgers is responsible for all of this with a hoax of some kind, where to start? The canonical version now has the V going 300 miles, with some reports even putting it up in Nevada:

The truth may be out there, but at this point, the journey is the story.

Twenty years ago, eerie lights in a large "V" formation traveled a 300-mile path over the state the night of March 13, 1997, with thousands of people, including then-Gov. Fife Symington, witnessing, well, something. Later that night, orbs of light hung on Phoenix's southern horizon.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...1/why-do-people-still-talk-phoenix-lights-scl

His massive lighted balloon thing with lights went over 300 miles, just floating along, but was never found? He managed to follow it along on surface roads as it drifted in the air for 300 miles, then recovered it? And just happened to do this the night some A10s were dropping flares? Or did his hoax craft do the flare thing too?

I don't know. I trust your research, but we now have Rodgers hoaxing the Walton case, as suspected, and hoaxing some crop circles AND hoaxing the Phoenix Lights. To paraphrase Garth from Wayne's Word, "Wow! What else?"

 

[John J.]

I've created this map based on MUFON reports between 1997 and 2016

Some of the estimated UFO flightpaths are very near to/ overfly Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
If an unidentified aircraft with bright lights were involved, and it was present for 15 or more minutes over Phoenix, some of the time very close to the airport (and reportedly at low altitude) it should have been noticed by staff in the ATC tower at the airport, and by aircrew- it's a busy airport.

Do we know if there was any interruption of airport operations or diversions of flights?

I couldn't find anything definite; all I got from Microsoft Copilot was

There is no specific information regarding the disruption of flights at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport in 1997 due to the Phoenix lights. However, it is known that significant delays occurred at the airport in the past, such as during severe weather events...

...but I don't really trust generative AI (and feel ambivalent about quoting it here).

At least one of the flightpaths might be an aircraft, landing lights on, approaching and landing at the airport
(arrowed, in green. I've traced part of road 101 in yellow).
If viewed from the west, perhaps near/ to the north of Interstate 10, and line of sight roughly parallel to it, the portion of the flightpath in which an aircraft flies due east before turning to land might be perceived as the aircraft hovering or flying very slowly, as it would be heading away from the observer.

Picture at (R) had the text description

Map of the flight paths of aircraft over Phoenix. Blue and purple represent flights in and out of Sky Harbor. Pink and orange represent general aviation flights.

From "azcentral" website, article "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema asks FAA to listen to Scottsdale residents on aircraft noise", Melissa Yeager
https://eu.azcentral.com/story/trav...ise-complaints-phoenix-scottsdale/3662439002/
Caveat; the article is undated but appears to be from 2018 or later; flightpaths might have been different in 1997. I'm not suggesting all lights seen were aircraft using PHX (if military aircraft in a "V" were responsible for some/ most reports, it's unlikely they used PHX from what we know).

If a large low-flying aircraft with bright lights was near/ over Phoenix for 15 or 20 minutes at 8 p.m., and it was clearly unusual, why are photos / footage so thin on the ground? Phoenix has a population of about 1.6 million. Plenty of time for someone to get a camera or 90s camcorder (and draw the attention of others).

The later lights (probably caused by flares) were over 50 miles to the southwest, and each individual flare probably burned for around 5 minutes
("LUU Parachute Flares", Northrop Grumman https://towndock.net/files/LUU_Parachute_Factsheet.pdf; "MAGELLAN AEROSPACE ANNOUNCES CONTRACTS TO PRODUCE AIRCRAFT ILLUMINATION FLARES", Magellan Aerospace https://magellan.aero/wp-content/uploads/Final 191223 - LUU-2 Flares for CAF.pdf). They would have been visible for less than 5 mins if still burning as they fell behind terrain. But these lights were photographed and filmed.

There are no accounts (that I'm aware of) of diners and restaurants in downtown Phoenix emptying out as customers go outside to see this incredible sight, or of traffic pausing etc. etc. There must have been thousands of people about in the city. Thursday evening continued as per usual for the overwhelming majority; either their attention wasn't drawn to the lights in the sky or they saw them but didn't think they were particularly unusual or interesting.

I think @JMartJr's suggestion is probably very relevant;

It is also possible that more than one stimulus generated reports, once people began to get excited either that evening or the next day when they hear there was a UFO about and recall the lights they saw the night before that might have been mildly interesting at the time but now seemed significant