The Calvine object – a secret US reconnaissance platform?

[Andreas]

I've recently been working on an article about the Calvine case together with a Swedish photo analyst, focusing on summarizing the known facts and examining the photograph itself. My conclusion is that it's likely a relatively simple hoax, probably involving small-scale models, and I'm open to the possibility that the exact method may never be fully resolved. We simply don't have enough data.

That said, we should keep general Calvine discussions and competing theories in their existing threads. What I'm specifically interested in here is the recurring suggestion that the object might have been a secret US reconnaissance platform.

One thing that stands out in this case—compared to many other "UFO reports"—is that relatively few people seem to favor an extraterrestrial explanation. Even within the "UFO community," there doesn't seem to be much consensus around that idea. Instead, the "black project" hypothesis comes up fairly often.

David Clarke has indicated that he leans in that direction, and he's not alone. I had an extended discussion with Nick Pope about the case, and he appeared broadly sympathetic to that interpretation as well (which is quite different from the position he took in Open Skies, Closed Minds). Shortly before his passing, he wrote to me: "I don't rule out the hoax theory altogether, but consider it a lower probability than you." In that context, he mentioned the alleged "Aurora program" and the 1989 North Sea triangular aircraft sighting as potentially relevant.

Personally, I find the secret-military explanation almost as problematic as an extraterrestrial one. While classified aircraft certainly exist, I'm not aware of any systems from around 1990 that match the reported behavior or appearance in the Calvine case—but I'm very open to being corrected on that point.

So I'm interested in input from people with knowledge of US (or NATO) aviation programs from the late 1980s/early 1990s: What kinds of platforms or technologies were actually in development at the time? Is there anything credible behind the "Aurora" story? (To me, it seems like a pure myth and nothing more.) Are there any known or plausible systems that could fit the Calvine description?

It's easy to claim that the object was probably "some kind of secret military craft," because that sounds more reasonable than suggesting a vehicle from Proxima Centauri—but it remains a sensational claim supported by very little evidence. Personally, I have dismissed the idea that this was some kind of experimental military craft. Have I overlooked anything? I'm curious to hear thoughts, especially from those familiar with the aerospace side.

 

[Ann K]

Personally, I have dismissed the idea that this was some kind of experimental military craft. Have I overlooked anything? I'm curious to hear thoughts, especially from those familiar with the aerospace side.

I have no such aerospace knowledge, but I'll point out that if something's secret, the USA has miles and miles of almost empty desert area (White Sands Missile Range alone is bigger than the state of Delaware) and I cannot imagine a developer jumping up in excitement and saying "I know! Let's test it in Scotland!"

 

[JMartJr]

Is there a thing like Google Trends that allows Boolean operators? It might be interesting to search for "calvine ufo" AND "alien" -- followed by a search for "calvine ufo" AND whatever a good generic term that would crop up to denote a black project (perhaps just "American" to catch any discussion of American black ops and American secret project and the like?) Or some other way to support that idea that there is more interest in Calvine as secret military project and comparatively less in Calvine as an alien spaceship. Not doubting your impression, but it might be as well to find if data supports the assertion?

 

[Mendel]

The more years pass without any similar technology coming to light, the less probable this hypothesis becomes.

Consider also this: there is a long road from fundamental science discoveries to working technology. Along this road, even if it was kept secret, the same fundamental discoveries would probably be made elsewhere.
But a craft that hovers with no visible means of support is fundamentally still impossible, therefore any technology that requires this science does not exist.

Ever since U2, it has been recognized that recon platforms should be high up, because that makes them harder to hit. (See e.g. the Chinese high altitude 'spy' balloon.) What we're seeing now in Ukraine are small, very mobile systems. They don't generally hover, because that makes them targets. It doesn't make any sense for a recon platform to have that capability to hover at low altitude.

I'll also second Ann's argument that it does not make any sense for the US to test secret aircraft in Scotland.
And it makes even less sense for it to be escorted by British aircraft.

 

[MapperGuy]

I have no such aerospace knowledge, but I'll point out that if something's secret, the USA has miles and miles of almost empty desert area (White Sands Missile Range alone is bigger than the state of Delaware) and I cannot imagine a developer jumping up in excitement and saying "I know! Let's test it in Scotland!"

Agreed.
The US would not test an experimental aircraft in Scotland.

However, if they had tested it at Area51 and it was successful, then Scotland might be the location for the next step.
Operational Test & Evaluation (OTE), where the aircraft is tested where it might be operationally used, under 'combat' conditions, trying to do what it would be expected to do on a regular basis.

But when you get to OTE the number of people involved grows, like some of the people at the operational base get to see it, pilots, ground crew, airbase operations people, etc. It can still be revealed only to a limited audience, but lots of other people at the base will be aware there is "Something Secret" present.

I am surprised that nobody has mentioned STEALTH. The first generation stealthy aircraft were very angular, so the radar returns would only be received in a few directions. The Calvine thing is very angular, so might be stealthy to some extent. Not sure how much investigation of stealth was going on at the time, mostly the air forces were concentrating on Speed and More Speed or altitude. Which is where the SR-71 came from.

 

[Andreas]

I have no such aerospace knowledge, but I'll point out that if something's secret, the USA has miles and miles of almost empty desert area (White Sands Missile Range alone is bigger than the state of Delaware) and I cannot imagine a developer jumping up in excitement and saying "I know! Let's test it in Scotland!"

I'll also second Ann's argument that it does not make any sense for the US to test secret aircraft in Scotland.
And it makes even less sense for it to be escorted by British aircraft.

I totally agree. But some people (with lively imaginations) seem to believe it was some kind of (almost) operational craft, beyond the stage of night flights over White Sands—and that makes it even less plausible, in my opinion. An early-stage prototype could have been abandoned and never come to public attention, but a highly advanced, fully developed craft should have been used in war zones, and its technology should have spilled over into other projects, perhaps even civilian ones.

Still, Pope suggested to me that it could have been a secret craft flown from Boscombe Down. But if we are to accept such an explanation, we must also accept that the craft was secret enough to remain classified 36 years later, yet was still being flown in daylight over populated areas. We must also accept that no one else has ever managed to capture a single photograph of this mysterious craft—no one except some random Scottish hiker. And to me, that doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

 

[Andreas]

Not sure how much investigation of stealth was going on at the time, mostly the air forces were concentrating on Speed and More Speed or altitude. Which is where the SR-71 came from.

Well, the F-117 was indeed operational at the time; it had even been used in combat. The B-2 first flew in 1989, so quite a lot of research into stealth technology was underway at the time. However, these projects are now well documented. Most have long since been retired and are publicly displayed in museums. I do leave room for the possibility that the object was some kind of balloon or blimp, perhaps constructed to test radar technology in connection with the development of stealth aircraft. But even so, the whole backstory must still be completely fabricated, since such a balloon would hardly zip off at great speed. There is also the issue that no one else has ever reported seeing such a balloon or blimp over Scotland—or anywhere else, for that matter.