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I would imagine anybody who knows anything about popular and rock music has heard of 'The 27 Club' - the idea that an unusual number of the world's most renowned rock musicians have died at the age of 27. First popularised in the early 70s following the deaths of Brian Jones, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin and Jim Morrison it became even more well-known after the deaths of Kurt Cobain (1994) and Amy Winehouse (2011).
In reading the Wikipedia article on the subject I notice that it is referred to as "an urban legend that has been repeatedly disproven by research". Several citations have been provided in support of this, but all but one ultimately leads to the same study [note: now fixed] that appeared in the British Medical Journal in December 2011 - a study that, in my opinion, doesn't seem satisfactory.
The main problem, I feel, is that the definition of "famous musicians" is based on 1,046 solo artists and band members who scored a number one UK album between 1956 and 2007. This criteria in itself whittled down the members of the 27 Club to just three - Jones, Cobain and Winehouse - as neither Janis Joplin, Jimi Hendrix nor Jim Morrison reached #1 in the UK album charts (though they all did in the US). Likewise, "lesser members" such as Pete Ham (Badfinger - 14 million albums sold), Ron McKernan (The Grateful Dead - best UK chart position of 27 with American Beauty), Alan Wilson (Canned Heat - notable Woodstock performers who had worldwide hits), and Richey Edwards (Manic Street Preachers, missing at aged 27, presumed dead) all fail to make the cut.
In addition to these exclusions, the above criteria means the study included such luminaries as Jim Reeves, Ray Conniff, Rock Follies, The Muppets, The Kids from "Fame", Five Star, Johnny Hates Jazz, New Kids on the Block, Jesus Jones, Right Said Fred, 2 Unlimited, Chaka Demus & Pliers, Hear'Say, and (presumably) the singers and musicians who performed on the soundtrack albums for South Pacific, West Side Story and The Sound of Music.
Obviously some of those were somewhat famous and even somewhat good - but can they seriously be ranked alongside - and, indeed, instead of - the likes of Hendrix, Joplin and The Doors, etc? (Hendrix's debut album, by the way, may well have reached #1 if its release hadn't coincided with that of The Beatles' Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band.)
Their study therefore not only excludes most of the members of the so-called 27 Club but vastly swells the sample size with musicians who by general definition fail to meet the criteria of being truly famous and/or revered - and, indeed, many of whom may not even meet the general definition of "musician".
Having reduced the number of age 27 deaths to three the study concludes that there is no peak death incident at this age, but rather a statistically insignificant peak at 32 (four), and that the death rate at 27 (0.57 per 100 musician years) is similar enough to 25 (0.56) and 32 (0.54) to conclude that the notion "has been created by a combination of chance and cherry picking".
Looking a little closer, I notice that the death rate for those who expired aged 25 is based on only two incidences. Famous musicians who died at this age include Tupac Shakur, Randy Rhoads, and Paul Kossoff - none of whom had a UK #1 album (though, again, Tupac did have a #1 album in the States). Who the study is referring to, therefore, I'm unsure (presumably either a famous musician I didn't find or a non-famous musician who appeared in some form or other on a UK #1 album).
Famous musicians who died aged 32 were Keith Moon, John Bonham, Mama Cass and Karen Carpenter, while less famous musicians include Keith Godchaux (also The Grateful Dead), Ricky Wilson (The B-52's - pre-Cosmic Thing), Florence Ballard (The Supremes), and Rushton Moreve (Steppenwolf).
The Who, Led Zeppelin and The Carpenters all had UK #1 albums. The Supremes also did but not until after Ballard had been fired. This leaves one potentially non-famous 32 who nonetheless made the study.
All in all, even though I imagine it was merely a fun way for a group of academics to fill some time, it does seem rather a flawed way to go about investigating a well-known idea.
Here is a list of very famous musicians who died between the ages of 20 and 32:
I did also consider the following people - Aaliyah (22), Ian Curtis (23), Cliff Burton, Tammi Terrell, Berry Oakley (all 24), Paul Kossoff (25), Nick Drake, Gram Parsons (26), Richey Edwards, plus those mentioned above (27), Brad Nowell, Steve Gaines, The Big Bopper, Tim Buckley (28), Ronnie Van Zant (29), Sandy Denny (31) - but I concluded (for subjective reasons) that they probably weren't genuinely famous/legendary.
Also to note: very famous musical legends who didn't die aged 20 to 32, such as Eric Clapton, Ginger Baker (80), David Bowie (69), Bob Dylan, Elvis Presley (42), Buddy Rich (69), Miles Davis (65), Marvin Gaye (44), Bob Marley (36), Madonna, Michael Jackson (50), Elton John, Rod Stewart, Bruce Springsteen, Johnny Cash (71), Mariah Carey, Eminem, Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Whitney Houston (48), Kanye West, Justin Bieber, and all the other members of The Who, Led Zeppelin, Queen (Freddy Mercury was 45), The Rolling Stones, The Beatles (John 40, George 58), Pink Floyd (Syd Barrett 60), The Eagles, AC/DC (Bon Scott 33), ABBA, The Police, Fleetwood Mac (Peter Green 73), etc, etc.
In a nutshell: I'm not saying that there's anything spooky or meaningful in the idea of 'The 27 Club' - but I will say that it does seem clear that the most famous/revered pop and rock musicians have expired at a greater frequency at the age of 27 than at any other non-elderly age - and this is especially true if we take the above list and count only those frontmen/women who class as genuine superstars (I make that five 27s compared with about seven or eight from all other years combined).
Of course, the sample size is small and therefore it could very much be down to coincidence and chance, as demonstrated by this small spreadsheet simulation using 15 "virtual superstars" who virtually died between the virtual ages of 20 and 32:
rng simulation showing that from a sample size of 15 spread over 13 years 5 deaths in one age year is perfectly within the bounds of chance
The only thing we can genuinely say is though more musical superstars have died at age 27 than at other ages it doesn't necessarily mean anything, nor can any apparent significance be disproved, because the sample size is too small; more data is required. And for that reason I would say that the conclusion of the BMJ study and the methodology used (the idea is about 'legends' not run-of-the-mill musicians) clearly constitutes "bunk". And that's the troubling part, and what inspired me to muse on this.
Wikipedia is the go-to place for initial research. Wikipedia tends very strongly towards the hyperrational and the mundane. Words such as "psuedoscience" and "disproven" are employed much too casually and freely. And supposed scientific studies and sources are very often quoted and presented as gospel without sufficient investigation and rigour.
This may be a problem, given the way our minds and views are shaped, or it may not be. While I personally don't believe there's enough evidence to support the notion of 'The 27 Club' I am disturbed by the narrowness of thought and dogma of such influential places like Wikipedia. So at least there's now somewhere googleable on the 'net where this one particular idea is questioned a little differently.
As well as my Wikipedia edits, if they survive.
In reading the Wikipedia article on the subject I notice that it is referred to as "an urban legend that has been repeatedly disproven by research". Several citations have been provided in support of this, but all but one ultimately leads to the same study [note: now fixed] that appeared in the British Medical Journal in December 2011 - a study that, in my opinion, doesn't seem satisfactory.
The main problem, I feel, is that the definition of "famous musicians" is based on 1,046 solo artists and band members who scored a number one UK album between 1956 and 2007. This criteria in itself whittled down the members of the 27 Club to just three - Jones, Cobain and Winehouse - as neither Janis Joplin, Jimi Hendrix nor Jim Morrison reached #1 in the UK album charts (though they all did in the US). Likewise, "lesser members" such as Pete Ham (Badfinger - 14 million albums sold), Ron McKernan (The Grateful Dead - best UK chart position of 27 with American Beauty), Alan Wilson (Canned Heat - notable Woodstock performers who had worldwide hits), and Richey Edwards (Manic Street Preachers, missing at aged 27, presumed dead) all fail to make the cut.
In addition to these exclusions, the above criteria means the study included such luminaries as Jim Reeves, Ray Conniff, Rock Follies, The Muppets, The Kids from "Fame", Five Star, Johnny Hates Jazz, New Kids on the Block, Jesus Jones, Right Said Fred, 2 Unlimited, Chaka Demus & Pliers, Hear'Say, and (presumably) the singers and musicians who performed on the soundtrack albums for South Pacific, West Side Story and The Sound of Music.
Obviously some of those were somewhat famous and even somewhat good - but can they seriously be ranked alongside - and, indeed, instead of - the likes of Hendrix, Joplin and The Doors, etc? (Hendrix's debut album, by the way, may well have reached #1 if its release hadn't coincided with that of The Beatles' Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band.)
Their study therefore not only excludes most of the members of the so-called 27 Club but vastly swells the sample size with musicians who by general definition fail to meet the criteria of being truly famous and/or revered - and, indeed, many of whom may not even meet the general definition of "musician".
Having reduced the number of age 27 deaths to three the study concludes that there is no peak death incident at this age, but rather a statistically insignificant peak at 32 (four), and that the death rate at 27 (0.57 per 100 musician years) is similar enough to 25 (0.56) and 32 (0.54) to conclude that the notion "has been created by a combination of chance and cherry picking".
Looking a little closer, I notice that the death rate for those who expired aged 25 is based on only two incidences. Famous musicians who died at this age include Tupac Shakur, Randy Rhoads, and Paul Kossoff - none of whom had a UK #1 album (though, again, Tupac did have a #1 album in the States). Who the study is referring to, therefore, I'm unsure (presumably either a famous musician I didn't find or a non-famous musician who appeared in some form or other on a UK #1 album).
Famous musicians who died aged 32 were Keith Moon, John Bonham, Mama Cass and Karen Carpenter, while less famous musicians include Keith Godchaux (also The Grateful Dead), Ricky Wilson (The B-52's - pre-Cosmic Thing), Florence Ballard (The Supremes), and Rushton Moreve (Steppenwolf).
The Who, Led Zeppelin and The Carpenters all had UK #1 albums. The Supremes also did but not until after Ballard had been fired. This leaves one potentially non-famous 32 who nonetheless made the study.
All in all, even though I imagine it was merely a fun way for a group of academics to fill some time, it does seem rather a flawed way to go about investigating a well-known idea.
Here is a list of very famous musicians who died between the ages of 20 and 32:
- 20 -
- 21 - Eddie Cochran, Stuart Sutcliffe, Sid Vicious
- 22 - Buddy Holly
- 23 -
- 24 - Duane Allman
- 25 - Tupac Shakur, Randy Rhoads
- 26 - Otis Redding
- 27 - Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Brian Jones, Amy Winehouse, Jim Morrison, Kurt Cobain
- 28 -
- 29 - Hank Williams, Marc Bolan
- 30 - Andy Gibb, Patsy Cline
- 31 -
- 32 - Keith Moon, John Bonham, Karen Carpenter, Mama Cass
I did also consider the following people - Aaliyah (22), Ian Curtis (23), Cliff Burton, Tammi Terrell, Berry Oakley (all 24), Paul Kossoff (25), Nick Drake, Gram Parsons (26), Richey Edwards, plus those mentioned above (27), Brad Nowell, Steve Gaines, The Big Bopper, Tim Buckley (28), Ronnie Van Zant (29), Sandy Denny (31) - but I concluded (for subjective reasons) that they probably weren't genuinely famous/legendary.
Also to note: very famous musical legends who didn't die aged 20 to 32, such as Eric Clapton, Ginger Baker (80), David Bowie (69), Bob Dylan, Elvis Presley (42), Buddy Rich (69), Miles Davis (65), Marvin Gaye (44), Bob Marley (36), Madonna, Michael Jackson (50), Elton John, Rod Stewart, Bruce Springsteen, Johnny Cash (71), Mariah Carey, Eminem, Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Whitney Houston (48), Kanye West, Justin Bieber, and all the other members of The Who, Led Zeppelin, Queen (Freddy Mercury was 45), The Rolling Stones, The Beatles (John 40, George 58), Pink Floyd (Syd Barrett 60), The Eagles, AC/DC (Bon Scott 33), ABBA, The Police, Fleetwood Mac (Peter Green 73), etc, etc.
In a nutshell: I'm not saying that there's anything spooky or meaningful in the idea of 'The 27 Club' - but I will say that it does seem clear that the most famous/revered pop and rock musicians have expired at a greater frequency at the age of 27 than at any other non-elderly age - and this is especially true if we take the above list and count only those frontmen/women who class as genuine superstars (I make that five 27s compared with about seven or eight from all other years combined).
Of course, the sample size is small and therefore it could very much be down to coincidence and chance, as demonstrated by this small spreadsheet simulation using 15 "virtual superstars" who virtually died between the virtual ages of 20 and 32:
rng simulation showing that from a sample size of 15 spread over 13 years 5 deaths in one age year is perfectly within the bounds of chance
The only thing we can genuinely say is though more musical superstars have died at age 27 than at other ages it doesn't necessarily mean anything, nor can any apparent significance be disproved, because the sample size is too small; more data is required. And for that reason I would say that the conclusion of the BMJ study and the methodology used (the idea is about 'legends' not run-of-the-mill musicians) clearly constitutes "bunk". And that's the troubling part, and what inspired me to muse on this.
Wikipedia is the go-to place for initial research. Wikipedia tends very strongly towards the hyperrational and the mundane. Words such as "psuedoscience" and "disproven" are employed much too casually and freely. And supposed scientific studies and sources are very often quoted and presented as gospel without sufficient investigation and rigour.
This may be a problem, given the way our minds and views are shaped, or it may not be. While I personally don't believe there's enough evidence to support the notion of 'The 27 Club' I am disturbed by the narrowness of thought and dogma of such influential places like Wikipedia. So at least there's now somewhere googleable on the 'net where this one particular idea is questioned a little differently.
As well as my Wikipedia edits, if they survive.
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