Russia and Ukraine Current Events

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
By a vote of 13 to two, with Vice-President Kirill Gevorgian of Russia and Judge Xue Hanqin of China dissenting, the ICJ ruled that Russia “shall immediately suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February.”

The court’s ruling – the first such verdict handed down by the ‘world court’ since the Russian invasion began – is in response to a suit filed by Ukraine on 27 February, accusing Russia of manipulating the concept of genocide to justify its military aggression.

Ukraine contended that having falsely claimed acts of genocide against the people of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, Russia declared and implemented a “special military operation” to prevent and punish the purported acts.

The ICJ asked Russia to immediately suspend its attacks and cease all military operations as they were based on Moscow’s stated purpose of preventing or punishing Ukraine for committing genocide.

The Court also noted that Russia had decided not to participate in oral proceedings and later, presented a document setting out its position that in this case, the Court lacks jurisdiction and requested it to “refrain from indicating provisional measures and to remove the case from its list.”

The case files are available at https://www.icj-cij.org/en/case/182
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Article:
THE HAGUE, March 16 (Reuters) - The United Nations' top court for disputes between states ordered Russia on Wednesday to immediately halt its military operations in Ukraine, saying it was "profoundly concerned" by Moscow's use of force.

...
In addition to disputing the grounds for the invasion, Kyiv also asked for emergency "provisional" measures against Russia to halt the violence before the case was heard in full. Those measures were granted on Wednesday.


add (reporting in AMerica is all over the place. ill have to read the ruling myself i guess)
Article:
Ukraine v. Russia: Court ruling against Putin could 'undermine his power'

Alexis Keenan·Reporter
Wed, March 16, 2022, 1:33 PM·4 min read
The International Court of Justice on Wednesday ordered Russia to stop all military actions in Ukraine tied to its February invasion of the country, and to revoke its claim that Ukrainian citizens requested Russia’s military support.

In a 13-2 ruling, the court found it had jurisdiction over Ukraine’s allegations that Russia falsely accused Ukraine of genocide to justify waging war on the former member of the Soviet Union. The court's judges voted 13-2 on the ruling.
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
I see Russia successfully working towards its objectives.
20220303_121906.png
It's two weeks later, and none of my red arrows have occurred, Kiev and Odessa remain unoccupied. Instead, Russia is still consolidating the coast corridor, and making slow progress in the Donbass, as if the threats to Kiev and Odessa had been mere feints.
DraftUkraineCoTMarch17,2022.png
Article:
Between 24 February and 15 March, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 1,900 civilian casualties – with 726 people killed, including 52 children – mostly caused by explosive weapons in populated areas.

Article:
In less than three weeks, some 3 million refugees have been forced to flee Ukraine, while an additional 1.85 million people have been displaced internally within the country. An estimated 12.65 million people have been affected in the areas hardest hit by the war within Ukraine.

Some 960,000 families are now without electricity in the country and 264,000 families have been cut off from gas supplies.

Article:
SmartSelect_20220318-123516_Samsung Internet.jpg


There were 44 attacks on health care, 33 of those with heavy weapons.
Article:
SmartSelect_20220318-122636_Samsung Internet.jpg
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
hhmmm...
Article:
Zelensky nationalizes TV news and restricts opposition parties


In an address to the nation delivered Sunday, he announced a temporary ban on "any activity" by 11 political parties.

The ban includes the Opposition Platform – For Life party, which holds 43 seats in Ukraine's national parliament and is the largest opposition party.
...
Zelensky's information policy involves "combining all national TV channels, the program content of which consists mainly of information and/or information-analytical programs, [into] a single information platform of strategic communication" to be called "United News."

Reuters notes that, until Saturday, privately owned Ukrainian media outlets "continued to operate" independently.

Zelensky said the measure was necessary to combat Russian misinformation and "tell the truth about the war."
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
ISW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 24
Article:
Russian forces continued their grinding territorial advances in Mariupol, entering parts of the city center on March 24. Ukrainian forces confirmed that Russian forces seized the Church of the Intercession of the Mother of God in the center of Mariupol on March 24.[32] Social media users geolocated several other videos of fighting in Mariupol to areas close to the city center, confirming ongoing Russian advances.[33] Several videos circulated on social media confirm that Russian Naval Infantry and Chechen forces are participating in the fighting.[34]

Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast Military Administration Head Pavlo Kyrylenko stated on March 23 that Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boycherenko relocated to an unspecified city outside Mariupol because the mayor was unable to stay in constant contact with regional authorities due to poor signal in the city.[35] Kyrylenko added that Russian forces are intentionally targeting the city’s critical infrastructure, destroying heat, water, and electricity, forcing city authorities “to leave the city to be able to work to save the people.”

The Mariupol City Administration reported on March 24 that Russian forces are using loudspeakers to falsely claim to Mariupol residents that Zaporizhia is no longer accepting refugees, the Ukrainian government has abandoned them, and that Russian forces have captured Odesa.[36] City authorities additionally reported Russian forces have forcibly deported approximately 6,000 Mariupol residents to Russia as of March 24.[37] Russian forces likely intend to demoralize Mariupol’s defenders and residents to force the city to capitulate.

Mariupol Battle Map Draft March 24, 2022.png
 

obiwanbenobi

Active Member
While I am glad to hear this I still take it with large grains of salt...


https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/euro...ukrainian-cities-a-deliberate-plan/index.html


"
A top Russian general gave some of the most detailed public remarks to date on Russia's military strategy in Ukraine, claiming on Friday that the "first stage" of Russia's military plan is now complete, with their primary focus now centered on eastern Ukraine.
"In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed," Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said in a Friday briefing. "The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbas."
"

Why? Way back before this invasion started I said that it didn't really look like Russia/Putin was making moves that looked like they weren't intending to invade and yes, they ended up invading.

Now I'm hearing about troop build ups in Belarus and moving reinforcements from Georgia. So while I really hope for peace I remain skeptical.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
It's two weeks later, and none of my red arrows have occurred, Kiev and Odessa remain unoccupied. Instead, Russia is still consolidating the coast corridor, and making slow progress in the Donbass, as if the threats to Kiev and Odessa had been mere feints.
Or, maybe, costly failures.
"In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed," Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, said in a Friday briefing.
So the take of some analysts is that the original plan failed, and that the Russian government is now selling what they can realistically achieve as their original objective to save face.
Article:
The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25 claiming Russia’s primary objective is to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Sergei Rudskoi, first deputy chief of the Russian General Staff, gave a briefing to Russian press summing up the first month of the Russian invasion on March 25.[1] Rudskoi inaccurately claimed Russian forces have completed “the main tasks of the first stage of the operation,” falsely asserting that Russia has heavily degraded the Ukrainian military, enabling Russia to focus on the “main goal” of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Rudskoi’s comments were likely aimed mainly at a domestic Russian audience and do not accurately or completely capture current Russian war aims and planned operations. Russia’s justification for the invasion of Ukraine from the outset was the fictitious threat Moscow claimed Ukrainian forces posed to the people in Russian-occupied Donbas. The Kremlin has reiterated this justification for the war frequently as part of efforts to explain the invasion to its people and build or sustain public support for Putin and the war. Rudskoi’s framing of the capture of the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as the “main goal” of the operation is in line with this ongoing information operation.

Rudskoi’s assertion that securing the unoccupied portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts was always the main objective of Russia’s invasion is false. The Kremlin’s initial campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine.[2] Rudskoi’s comments could indicate that Russia has scaled back its aims and would now be satisfied with controlling the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, but that reading is likely inaccurate. Russian forces elsewhere in Ukraine have not stopped fighting and have not entirely stopped attempting to advance and seize more territory. They are also attacking and destroying Ukrainian towns and cities, conducting operations and committing war crimes that do not accord with the objectives Rudskoi claims Russia is pursuing.

[...]

Rudskoi falsely claimed Ukraine’s air force and air defenses "are almost completely destroyed” and its navy “ceased to exist.” Russian forces have failed to secure air superiority, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting on March 25 that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed one plane, one unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), and four cruise missiles in the past 24 hours; the Ukrainian air force remains active.[4] Rudskoi additionally claimed that all Ukrainian units have suffered significant losses, including 65.7% of tanks and armored vehicles, 42.8% of field artillery guns and mortars, 30.5% of multiple launch rocket systems, and 82% of S-300 and Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as three-quarters of Ukrainian aircraft, half their helicopters, and 35 of Ukraine‘s 36 TB2 drones. These figures are likely falsified and inaccurate.
 

Mauro

Senior Member
So the take of some analysts is that the original plan failed, and that the Russian government is now selling what they can realistically achieve as their original objective to save face.
Article:
The Russian General Staff issued a fictitious report on the first month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on March 25

Rudskoi's speech reminded me of Aesop's 'The Fox and the Grapes'.

It must also be seen if they can actually take the Donbas, they may not even be able to keep the ground they have gained up to now. At the moment the Russians seem more intent to damage as much as possible Ukrainian's infrastructure, including civilians buildings, rather than trying to advance in the Donbas. The Ukrainian have counterattacked around Kyiv (which is now rather safe) and Mikolayv (securing the safety of Odesa). Chernihiv has not yet been surrounded, and the positioning of Russian troops there does not look to be the safest and soundest possible (to me, at least). Sumy and Kharkiv are holding, while more south, in the Donbas, there are heavy fightings ongoing with the Russians seemingly unable to break through and Ukrainians seriously counterattacking in places. The worst situation is in Mariupol which, being surrounded, is doomed to fall sooner or later unless Ukrainians can break the siege, which does not seem probable at the moment. Capturing Mariupol will cost the Russians a lot (urban fights are nasty and they favor the defender a lot), and all what they'll gain will be a giant heap of rubble and corpses, sadly.

This is yesterday's map (do not take it at face value):

1648318494185.png
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-30-summary/
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
do not take it at face value
this is why I generally stick with the same outlet for maps, everyone has different standards for dealing with uncertain information. The difference between two map creators can easily be greater than the change from yesterday to today.
 

Mauro

Senior Member
this is why I generally stick with the same outlet for maps, everyone has different standards for dealing with uncertain information. The difference between two map creators can easily be greater than the change from yesterday to today.
I find the maps from ISW blog, Militaryland, Nathan Ruser, COUPSURE and liveuamap to be generally reliable, for what is possible in a war of course and from open intelligence on top of that. They generally agree one with each other in the broad picture, they also support their maps with references and discussions on the methods they use which are interesting to read.

But you are very right in cautioning about comparing maps from different authors. At least one should read carefully the descriptions because there are big differences in how terms such as 'controlled' or 'contested' are defined and this alters a lot the visual apperance of the maps. Then there is the fog-of-war, probably not even Russians and Ukrainians themselves have an exact full picture of their forces on the ground, for open-source people it's much more difficult of course. And the real situation is much more chaotic than what the maps show: they do not have neat front lines WW-I style as it seems from the maps. Operational security is another concern, so the picture we have is of knowing more about the movements of the Russian side than of Ukrainians, because Russians are reported to have been pretty worse than Ukrainians in OPSEC (wiki). Same goes for the losses, there are lots of videos and pictures from Ukrainians showing destroyed Russian equipment, they make good propaganda and boost morale, while Russians are more shy to show their videos because they have to keep in place their narrative of a 'special military operation' with little blood and no targeting of civilians for their domestic audience.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. The Mayor of Irpin, Oleksandr Markushin, stated on March 28 that Ukrainian forces liberated Irpin and are conducting a “sweep” of the area, but warned that the city remains dangerous and asked civilians not to return to their homes yet. Ukrainian forces additionally shared photos of themselves in Irpin on March 28. Markushin said Ukrainian forces intend to use Irpin as a staging ground for further counterattacks on Bucha, Vorzel, and Hostomel. Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in the Irpin area on March 22.
Kyiv Battle Map Draft March 28, 2022.png
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Hard to say if this is debunked or not:
Article:
Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at peace talks on the Ukraine-Belarus border earlier this month, sources close to him say.

The Chelsea FC owner - who has now recovered - reportedly suffered sore eyes and peeling skin.

Two Ukrainian peace negotiators were also said to have been affected.

One report said the alleged poisoning was orchestrated by hardliners in Russia who wanted to sabotage talks.

Shortly after the allegations emerged, an unnamed US official was quoted by Reuters as saying that intelligence suggested the men's symptoms were due to "environmental" factors, not poisoning.

And later an official in the Ukrainian president's office, Ihor Zhovkva, told the BBC that while he hadn't spoken to Mr Abramovich, members of the Ukrainian delegation were "fine" and one had said the story was "false".

However, BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says it would hardly be surprising that the US would want to dampen down suggestions that anyone - especially Russia - had used a chemical weapon in Ukraine, as this could push them into retaliatory action that they are extremely reluctant to take.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Ok I'm in Kyiv so if you want a photo of something, ask and I'll see what I can do
The inside of a supermarket or bakery would be interesting (or whatever is being used for food supply).

Babyn Yar, the holocaust memorial, may also be worth a visit, to see if it's still intact.
 

derwoodii

Senior Member.
multiple web cams from Kiev and surrounds, best i can tell they are live online

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/ukraine/kiev/european-square.html

This 24/7 live streaming presents several street views around European Square (Європейська Площа), located in the Old Town of Kiev, Ukraine. Near this area, adjacent to Khreshchatyk, the capital’s main street, there is a wide variety of tourist attractions, namely National Parliamentary Library of Ukraine (


Local Time: 13:43
29th March 2022

Kyiv, UA

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hiyVq44pK8
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
The field dates for this survey are March 9-13, 2022. In total, a random sample of 1,035 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. [...] All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers.
20220318slide03-1536x1152.png
20220318slide02-1536x1152.png

There are two possible explanations for this:
• either anti-vaxxers live in a separate information sphere,
• or the vaccine turns people into sheeple.
And there's no evidence for the latter.
 

captancourgette

Active Member
Ok
The inside of a supermarket or bakery would be interesting (or whatever is being used for food supply).

Babyn Yar, the holocaust memorial, may also be worth a visit, to see if it's still intact.
Ok I'll try. I miss write before (tired as) I'm on my way to Kyiv, will be there in 5 hours about. Currently on train between Lviv and Kyiv
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Here's a historian, talking about the pitfalls of drawing conclusions from short/social media video clips, illustrated with actual examples. It's like a short course on how to watch these.
Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3hiyVq44pK8

Transcript excerpts as summary/index:
[description:] There are a lot of videos coming out of Ukraine, leading to a lot of opinions. Not to be a wet blanket, but I caution that these are merely small data points, and normally will only permit conclusions supported by that one snippet, not larger trends.

[4:33] You're only getting to see the data which is uploaded. [= you are missing information]

[5:27] secondly, the editing
[7:44] watching an edited video can lead to questionable conclusions

[9:20] third, you're generally seeing only the successful attacks, nobody's going to go about broadcasting their misses

[9:49] fourth, be wary of the fact that you don't know what it is you don't know

[10:52] fifthly, watch out for logic traps [e.g. reverse survivor bias]

[13:35] sometimes folks forget about OpSec

[13:49] not everything unpleasant is a war crime

[14:16] question to ponder after about three weeks: where were the large Ukranian manoeuver units?
Content from External Source
 

FatPhil

Senior Member.
The inside of a supermarket or bakery would be interesting (or whatever is being used for food supply).

Babyn Yar, the holocaust memorial, may also be worth a visit, to see if it's still intact.

There's been no claim that it isn't intact, that's not bunk that needs debunking.

There have been claims that there were claims that it was no longer intact, but they were swiftly debunked because they had invoked a trojan source fallacy - follow their links and you end up with the actual claim, which was "a bomb drops on the same site of Babyn Yar". A different claim. Noone sane can interpret that as "a bomb drops on Babyn Yar". The addition of the extra 3 words is there to explicitly stress that it wasn't actually on the Babyn Yar memorial itself. It's a big plot of land, the memorial itself is just a tiny thing tucked away at one end, there's plenty more to be damaged on that plot than just the memorial.
 

FatPhil

Senior Member.
It's probably still a nice place to visit? and to see how it's been affected by the war in the meantime, seeing as it's a month later now?

Indeed, the little orthodox chapel in the same park looks delightful.

I remember eyebaling the distance from the various scud divots (not really big enough to be called craters) and the totally-non-existent-honest-guv' nuclear facilities in Israel in the earl 90s to get a general impression of their accuracy (utterly abysmal). If the Kyiv TV tower just opposite the park was the real target, they probably wouldn't have given up after just one shot, so there may well be many misses dotted around the place.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
There are two possible explanations for this:
• either anti-vaxxers live in a separate information sphere,
• or the vaccine turns people into sheeple.
you can only think of two possible explanations? i see people who don't trust mainstream media or the government. That doesn't mean they don't watch mainstream media or hear the government spin doctors.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
The inside of a supermarket or bakery would be interesting (or whatever is being used for food supply).
Article:
Tuesday, 29 March 2022
ATB-Market reopens stores in Kyiv and Kharkiv (UA)

ATB-Market has announced the reopening of a number of stores in Kyiv, the Kyiv region and Kharkiv, due to a more 'stabilised' situation in these regions. The retailer has reopened 11 stores in Kyiv,
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
i see people who don't trust mainstream media or the government. That doesn't mean they don't watch mainstream media or hear the government spin doctors.
Yep. Separate information sphere.

Their facts and the mainstream facts are not the same.
 
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captancourgette

Active Member
Slept on the ground last night. Have not seen a single open shopIMG20220330073849.jpg
Like many war zones i am not allowed to take pictures.
Constant sound of artillery booms in the background. It's a ghost town
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
A projectile exploded in a military encampment in Western Russia’s Belgorod Region on the border with Ukraine on Tuesday [March 29th], injuring four servicemen, an emergencies source told TASS.

"A projectile fell on the territory of a military encampment in the Belogord Region. Four servicemen were injured," the source said.

Initial data indicates that the projectile was launched from the Ukrainian territory.

SmartSelect_20220330-074436_Samsung Internet.jpg


Article:
On March 23, a state of emergency was declared in Zhuravlevka and Nekhoteyevka, two Belgorod Region villages on the border with Ukraine, after a projectile launched from the territory of Ukraine landed in the area. Three people were injured and over 20 houses and vehicles were damaged as a result. In the early hours of March 24, several projectiles exploded in a non-residential area of Zhuravlevka. Later in the day, one person was killed when the village was shelled again.
 

captancourgette

Active Member
IMG20220330101107.jpg
Ok just went to this silpo, plenty of food, no water though, forced to buy orange juice. I assume you can see meta days from the photo i uploaded in gonna delete it from my phone cause i don't want to get caught
 

Mauro

Senior Member
Ok just went to this silpo, plenty of food, no water though, forced to buy orange juice. I assume you can see meta days from the photo i uploaded in gonna delete it from my phone cause i don't want to get caught
Don't take any risks, that's the most important thing.
 

Woolery

Banned
Banned
Article:
…polls released this week by Russia’s most respected independent pollster, Levada, showed Mr. Putin’s approval rating hitting 83 percent, up from 69 percent in January. Eighty-one percent said they supported the war, describing the need to protect Russian speakers as its primary justification.
Source: NY Times

A lot of folks anticipated a groundswell of Russian civilian opposition to the war as time went on. Evidence suggests this is not yet the case. For those wondering whether Levada is an accurate/fair pollster, there is past evidence that suggests they are. Some of that evidence is described in a previous post.

Perhaps shutting out western media/social media platforms and ratcheting up Russian propaganda at home is paying off for Putin.
 

Woolery

Banned
Banned
I believe US presidents typically also do better when there's a war on.
They certainly do (the rally-around-the-flag-effect). But I think this poll is noteworthy because not only has Putin’s favorability steadily climbed for over a month since the action began (from about 70% to about 80%), but the number of Russians who support the action has also actually risen since the action began.
Eighty-one percent said they supported the war, describing the need to protect Russian speakers as its primary justification.
This is way up from 58 percent at the beginning of the operation, when the rally-around-the-flag-effect is typically strongest.

The support for the war and Putin at home appears to be growing stronger as the action takes longer and the friendly casualties pile up, which isn’t typical of most military invasions, particularly American ones.

I think it’s possible this rise in support could be due to a corresponding increase in Russian propaganda at home, and a corresponding crackdown on non-Russian news sources in Russia.
 
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DavidB66

Senior Member
I believe US presidents typically also do better when there's a war on.
Yes, but it's not a war, is it? It's a 'limited action', or some such.

The support for the war and Putin at home appears to be growing stronger as the action takes longer and the friendly casualties pile up
How much do the Russian public know about the casualties?

It is a cardinal rule that in a totalitarian state, which Russia now is (again), no official statements or statistics can be trusted. We have seen this demonstrated vividly in recent documentaries about Chernobyl, where the Soviet authorities piled lie upon lie upon lie. And that was under the amiable Gorbachev.
 

Woolery

Banned
Banned
How much do the Russian public know about the casualties?

It is a cardinal rule that in a totalitarian state, which Russia now is (again), no official statements or statistics can be trusted. We have seen this demonstrated vividly in recent documentaries about Chernobyl, where the Soviet authorities piled lie upon lie upon lie. And that was under the amiable Gorbachev.
That’s usually true, but military casualties are difficult to hide. If Russia is sustaining losses in the thousands (as most estimates indicate) the families back home will realize their loved ones died under fire.
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Kremlin claims the entirety of these oblasts as the territory of its proxies in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR).[2] The Kremlin is increasingly redeploying troops from other axes of advance and channeling its remaining reinforcements from Russia into eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are unlikely to conduct active operations on other fronts in the coming weeks.

The Kremlin may intend to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before seeking to negotiate a Kremlin-favorable ceasefire and claim that Russia has achieved its war aims. The Kremlin’s initial false justification for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was to protect the DNR and LNR from Ukraine and enable them to seize their “claimed” territory. The Kremlin is attempting to gloss over the failure of Russia’s initial campaign for a domestic Russian audience. The Kremlin has in fact been forced to alter its operations after the failure of its initial campaign. Kremlin claims that Russian forces solely attacked northeastern Ukraine to degrade Ukrainian forces before achieving the “main goal” of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts – such as statements made by the Russian General Staff on March 25 – are false.[3]
Kyiv Battle Map Draft April 1, 2022.png

Ukraine is re-gaining ground in the North, but the situation in Mariupol is getting worse, and it looks like Russian pressure on Donbas is increasing.

Apparently the assault on Kyiv was neither sufficient to take the capital, nor did it bind enough Ukrainian forces to enable a Russian success in Donbas. I expect that the next two weeks will show whether Russian and separatist troups can occupy all of Luhansk and Donezk oblasts with a concentrated effort. Logistics for this operation are easier than for the Kyiv assault, especially if they gain naval access to Mariupol.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 2 that out of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) it assesses have participated in operations in Ukraine, 16 BTGs have been “completely destroyed” and 34 more are currently combat ineffective and recovering.[1] ISW cannot independently confirm these numbers, but Russian forces will be unlikely to be able to resume major operations if two-thirds of the BTGs committed to fighting to date have been rendered temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.

The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported on April 2 that Russian forces in Transnistria, the illegally Russian-occupied strip of Moldova bordering Ukraine, began preparations for a demonstration of combat readiness and possible combat in Ukraine.[23] ISW cannot independently confirm this report, and Russian forces in Transnistria are highly unlikely to launch unsupported operations against Odesa. Russian forces may seek to fix Ukrainian forces in Odesa in place through the threat of an operation from Transnistria, but this remains a low risk.[24]
 

Mendel

Senior Member.

Bucha massacre


Article:
Initial video footage of the scene was posted to social media on Saturday, the 2nd of April[2] of what was left behind after the Russian troops left showed mass civilian casualties. Following the withdrawal of the Russian military from Bucha, at end of March, evidence emerged of numerous atrocities committed by Russian forces while they occupied the region. 18 mutilated bodies of murdered men, women and children were found in a basement. The bodies showed evidence of torture; cut-off ears and teeth pulled out. Corpses of other killed civilians were left in the road, allegedly sometimes mined by Russian soldiers before they retreated.[2][3]

The main streets were littered with dead civilians, who had apparently been going about their everyday lives.[4]

Residents and the town mayor confirmed they had been killed by Russian troops. Many of them appeared to be going about their daily routines, walking dogs, or carrying shopping bags. The bodies were whole, indicating they had been shot, rather than killed by explosive munitions.[5]

Footage showed civilians dead, with their hands bound. Other footage showed a dead man, next to his bicycle. Pets and other animals had been needlessly shot.[6] Journalists entering the town themselves, discovered dead civilians.
 
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