Crocus City Hall Moscow Terrorist Attack

[Duke]

Earlier this evening a number of armed men in camouflage burst into the Crocus City Hall (Moscow) just before a pop concert and began shooting.

The hall was packed with visitors and mobile phone footage shows scenes of chaos.

There are no official figures yet as to how many people have been killed but there are reports of at least 12 people killed.
The building is on fire - possibly a third of the building - and we believe dozens of people may be trapped inside the building.

There are also reports that a number of the gunmen may have barricaded themselves inside the building, so this is still going on.

Obviously this is a very serious situation with Russian special forces deployed to the scene, as well as 50 ambulances. This suggests the authorities fear the casualty toll could be quite high.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036

 

[Mendel]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036

Ukraine says it had nothing to do with this attack, and meanwhile Islamic State has claimed responsibility.

Reuters news agency is reporting that Islamic State have claimed responsibility for the attack on its Telegram channel.
The report has not been independently verified. The group, also known as ISIS, has carried out attacks in a number of countries, however BBC security correspondent Gordon Corera notes that the group has at times in the past claimed responsibility for attacks that it had nothing to do with.
On 7 March, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said it prevented an attack on a synagogue in Moscow that was being planned by an Islamic State cell.

 

[Gary C]

Russia's aid to Syria's Assad regime included bombing multiple Islamic State positions and helped put an end to the group's rapid 2014-2015 expansion. IIRC Putin may still have some units actively supporting the government in Damascus.

 

[Mendel]

Russia's aid to Syria's Assad regime included bombing multiple Islamic State positions and helped put an end to the group's rapid 2014-2015 expansion. IIRC Putin may still have some units actively supporting the government in Damascus.

Wagner group allegedly fought ISIS in Africa, though I don't know what became of that after Prigoshin died.

 

[Duke]

Wagner group allegedly fought ISIS in Africa, though I don't know what became of that after Prigoshin died.

They are still there, rebranded as the "Africa Corps." Seems odd a Russian paramilitary organization would take the name of a famous Nazi Germany combat force.

Recent reports on the Wagner Group suggest a transformation is underway.

The group's activities in Africa are now under the direct supervision of the Russian ministry of defence.

Wagner commands an estimated force of 5,000 operatives deployed throughout Africa, from Libya to Sudan. As part of the transformation, the defence ministry has renamed it the Africa Corps.

https://theconversation.com/wagner-...or-russias-operations-on-the-continent-223253

 

[john.phil]

Islamic State have claimed responsibility

Russia claims they captured at least one of the attackers, he said he did it for money. The link further below contains footage of the interrogation of one of the suspects.

source: https://vk.com/wall-61174019_642347

Interrogation link below (in Russian, subtitles in Spanish), but he basically says what's above. He was contacted on Telegram, offered 500,000 rubles, for which he received 250,000 rubles. His mission was to attack people randomly. Footage from the event show them not "overdoing" it or taking hostages, as you would expect if ideology/vengeance was involved, despite plenty of opportunities and means to do so. They also left behind a bag filled with ammunition and fled the scene, instead of fighting to the end, as you would expect from a terrorist group:


Source: https://vk.com/video-61174019_456268560

 

[Mauro]

Footage from the event show them not "overdoing" it or taking hostages, as you would expect if ideology/vengeance was involved, despite plenty of opportunities and means to do so.

Not "overdoing"? They killed 133 people, aren't those enough? There were 90 deads at Bataclan... They also used grenades (or something like that), set fire to the building and collapsed part of the roof.

Then they tried to flee, successfully, it seems (even if Russia and Belarus say now that they got one), and obviously their flight plan did not involved the use of hostages (or they would have taken them).

 

[Mick West]

The Wikipedia article has a good overview, with a lot of references.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crocus_City_Hall_attack

On 22 March 2024, at around 20:00 MSK (UTC+3), a coordinated attack occurred at the Crocus City Hall music venue in Krasnogorsk, a Russian city on the western edge of Moscow. Four gunmen carried out a mass shooting on the people gathered at the venue and used incendiary devices to set the venue ablaze.[9][10] The attack killed at least 143 people,[1] with over 145 injured, making it the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia since the Beslan school siege in 2004 and the deadliest terrorist attack in Moscow since the 1999 apartment bombings.[11][12][13]

Russia's Foreign Ministry called the incident a terrorist attack.[14] The Islamic State – Khorasan Province (IS–KP), a South-Central Asia-based regional affiliate of the Islamic State, claimed responsibility in a statement released through the Telegram channel of Amaq News Agency shortly after the attack.[15][4][16] On 23 March, IS–KP released photos of the attackers and a full report on the attack.[3][6]

Vladimir Putin and FSB have stated the men involved in carrying out the attack tried to escape to Ukraine and had contacts on the "Ukrainian side".[11] Putin called the attack a "barbaric terrorist act" and said that all four gunmen had been arrested. He also declared 24 March a national day of mourning.[9]

 

[Mauro]

According to the Belarusian ambassador to Russia, the border with Belarus was secured to avoid the terrorist to flee:

MOSCOW, 23 March (BelTA) - The Belarusian special services were helping Russia to make sure the terrorists did not escape across the border, Belarusian Ambassador to Russia Dmitry Krutoi told reporters, BelTA has learned.

"Since yesterday, the special services were in active mode of cooperation. The head of the State Security Committee has kept in touch with his Russian counterpart. In fact, the main task of last night was to make sure the terrorists did not escape across our common border. This task has been accomplished. Maximum security measures have been imposed," Ambassador Dmitry Krutoi noted.

https://eng.belta.by/society/view/a...sts-did-not-escape-across-border-156971-2024/

 

[yoshy]

Short 12 minute video by William Spaniel, a professor of foreign policy with a focus on game theory, describing a high level summary of why ISIS-K attacks Russia. I highly recommend the channel in general.

Here's a summary generated from summarize.tech:

In the YouTube video "Moscow Theater Attack: Its Complicated Origins and Even More Complicated Consequences," the speaker explores the geopolitical motivations behind the Moscow theater attack claimed by ISIS-K in 2024. The attack is linked to Russia's long-standing focus on the Black Sea and its strategic importance for monitoring Russian interests in the Mediterranean region and the Middle East. The speaker explains that Russia's annexation of Crimea and the control of the Bosporus Strait by Turkey pose challenges for Russian warships, leading Russia to establish a naval base in Syria. The speaker then discusses the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2024 and how it has created opportunities for militant groups like ISIS-K to target Russia. Russia's preoccupation with the border with Ukraine has left its national guard units and intelligence services stretched thin, leaving soft targets like theaters vulnerable to attack. Putin suggested Ukrainian involvement in the attack and the potential for increased recruitment for ISIS-K, raising the possibility of another mobilization by the Russian government. However, this approach risks violating the social contract in Russia, where politics are expected to stay away from individuals if they avoid politics. The outcome of this narrative will determine the openness of Russians to mobilization and the subsequent impact on Ukraine.

 

[john.phil]

Not "overdoing"?

If you watch the footage, they come across a lot of people and don't shoot. They even left a bag full of ammunition. There's footage from inside the theater where they are standing, looking around, and people in their seats in full view, staring back. They picked people at random, as they made their way to the areas selected for burning down. It's said there were up to 6,500 people, they targeted 2%.

Then they tried to flee, successfully, it seems (even if Russia and Belarus say now that they got one)

There's footage of four being interrogated. One I linked, two others are using an interpreter. The one I linked speaks Russian and he explains he was listening to a preacher on Telegram, the preacher's assistant approached him and asked if he wanted to make some money. He agreed.

 

[john.phil]

Izvestia news agency reconstructed the initial attack:


Source: https://vk.com/video-213127547_456304744

 

[john.phil]

Interrogation of the second suspect, published by Komsomolskaya Pravda news agency. The suspect does not speak Russian, seems to understand it but uses an interpreter, and all the detained suspects are said to be Russian citizens. The news agency says the authorities are investigating whether they were given illegal documents. He said he wanted to work as a taxi driver, and that's why he bought the car. He was living in a hostel, met the group on Telegram. Got the weapons 10 to 15 days before the event. The news agency is calling him the leader of the group, but there's nothing in the interrogation that supports it. He was not asked about a motive in the footage.

source:
Source: https://vk.com/video/@kpru?z=video-15722194_456282819%2Fpl_-15722194_-2

 

[john.phil]

Third suspect interrogation. His Russian is not very good but he can understand well enough. He's asked for his full name and date of birth (Rajab Alizadeh, 30, Feb/1994), then they ask him the whereabouts of a machine gun he had. It was thrown out somewhere along the road, either in the outskirts of Moscow or in Bryansk where he was detained, he doesn't clarify it. In this footage, they don't ask him about their motive, or how he was recruited and met the others.

Spoiler: A bit bloody

Source: https://vk.com/video-211144754_456250509?list=c7bd25389b3a1bef3b

 

[John J.]

Russia claims they captured at least one of the attackers, he said he did it for money. The link further below contains footage of the interrogation of one of the suspects.

If these men are responsible, I hope justice is served.
The perpetrator's crimes are indefensible.

It is important to note that we don't know the circumstances of the "interrogations".
The footage in post #6 https://www.metabunk.org/threads/crocus-city-moscow-terrorist-attack.13400/post-312986 appears to be soon after capture. The prisoner might have a fear (whether well-founded or not) of being shot out of hand.
He might have a very strong incentive to say whatever he might, hypothetically, have been told to say.


RT (Russia Today), Izvestia, Komsomolskaya Pravda and VK are unreliable news sources and, essentially, do what the Kremlin tells them.

They also left behind a bag filled with ammunition and fled the scene, instead of fighting to the end, as you would expect from a terrorist group

Although groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS like to portray their "fighters" as being unafraid of death, large numbers of prisoners around the world (particularly in Kurdish-controlled and Syrian Government prisons) show otherwise.

Committed members of many terrorist groups have surrendered rather than face death or injury on many, many occasions.

Our perceptions are shaped by the chilling nature of the 9/11 attacks, and smaller-scale atrocities where terrorists have mounted suicide bombings or continued other murderous actions until shot, but these are the exception, not the rule.

 

[captancourgette]

They are still there, rebranded as the "Africa Corps." Seems odd a Russian paramilitary organization would take the name of a famous Nazi Germany combat force.

Wait until you find out about why they're called 'wagner' (pity cause I'm a huge fan) Though no doubt you know this already.
Facist symbols are rife through their paramilitary groups, eg from one of the guys who captured the 4 suspects yesterday

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sun_(symbol)

The part that raises red flags is why they would be going to Ukraine. Now as we all know theres a war going on there the place is crawling with army and surveillance on both sides. Now if I was wanting to lie low and disappear that would be the last place I'ld be going to. Or is Russia saying oh the border is open just drive on through

 

[john.phil]

Our perceptions are shaped by the chilling nature of the 9/11 attacks,

Not mine, terrorism and myself predate 2001 by a good margin.

RT (Russia Today), Izvestia, Komsomolskaya Pravda and VK are unreliable news sources

It's footage.

In the interrogation, contrary to other interrogations of terrorists and other terrorist attacks, none of the 4 justify what they did. They don't bring Allah or use Islamic language; they don't refer to the victims as infidels; during the attack, there's no footage where they shout Allahu Akbar or raise the index finger to the sky; there are no headbands or black flags or references to any terrorist groups; they don't record a message; they didn't have suicide vests; they didn't make hostages; from the footage, they didn't try to maximise the number of victims.

They claim they were paid to storm the entrance, walk to the theater and make victims along the way, torch the place and leave.

 

[Mendel]

the deadliest terrorist attack in Moscow since the 1999 apartment bombings

which many believe were a false flag operation

that theory is on the table for Crocus as well

 

[Duke]

Wait until you find out about why they're called 'wagner' (pity cause I'm a huge fan) Though no doubt you know this already.
Facist symbols are rife through their paramilitary groups, eg from one of the guys who captured the 4 suspects yesterday

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sun_(symbol)

The part that raises red flags is why they would be going to Ukraine. Now as we all know theres a war going on there the place is crawling with army and surveillance on both sides. Now if I was wanting to lie low and disappear that would be the last place I'ld be going to. Or is Russia saying oh the border is open just drive on through

I don't read Russian, so is the gent pictured with the AK against his head one of the Crocus attackers from Friday? I ask because he's dressed in what would pass for business casual, not the camo tactical clothing discussed in the news stories.

 

[captancourgette]

which many believe were a false flag operation

Oh yeah thats nearly certain a false flag by Putin/FSB, but with this one I'm not so sure

Putin in a broadcast a couple of days dismissed the USA warning about a possible terrorist attack in Moscow, that its just them scaremongering.
Now if Putin knew this attack would happen would he say that? I don't think so, as he now looks like a Fool because it seems as if the USA knows more about whats going on in Moscow than him

 

[captancourgette]

I don't read Russian, so is the gent pictured with the AK against his head one of the Crocus attackers from Friday? I ask because he's dressed in what would pass for business casual, not the camo tactical clothing discussed in the news stories.

He's the same guy in the john.phil story from earlier in the page, who the Russian's are claiming as one of the attackers. I also don't read Russian (though do read Spanish somewhat as I live in Spain)

 

[john.phil]

I don't read Russian

If you use Google Chrome browser, right click on the image, or an empty area on the page, and select "Search image(s) with Google", then ask for the translation of the selected text. Works on paused video too, pdfs and any text document opened in the browser.

 

[JimJam]

One thing that throws me is the response time, it doesn't appear that any law enforcement was present for over an hour. despite a police barracks being 4 kms away. The location of the concert hall surrounded by a river with only bridges or a path out past said barracks, I'm shocked the perpetrators were able to initially escape. Russia majorly dropped the ball in it's response to this attack.

My opinion leans that either Russia is so thinly spread with Ukraine that ISIS was able to sneak in with barely any opposition, or this was allowed to happen similar to the 1999 Bombings, and ISIS have ruined Russia's narrative by immediately claiming responsibility before the attack could be pinned on Ukraine. The ISIS attack seems most likely since they have also released bodycam footage from the Gunmen though.

 

[Mendel]

The ISIS attack seems most likely since they have also released bodycam footage from the Gunmen though.

Is that confirmed? The most reputable news sources I could find online for that are from India, the Western news media seem silent on it (says Google). Is that due to journalistic ethics about graphic footage, or is it a hoax using footage from another attack?

 

[JimJam]

Is that confirmed? The most reputable news sources I could find online for that are from India, the Western news media seem silent on it (says Google). Is that due to journalistic ethics about graphic footage, or is it a hoax using footage from another attack?

Really fair, I'm not sure if it's confirmed and the nature of it makes me absolutely not inclined to seek out the original source.

 

[Mendel]

Is that confirmed? The most reputable news sources I could find online for that are from India, the Western news media seem silent on it (says Google).

Neue Zürcher Zeitung (Switzerland) reports it.

 

[john.phil]

Geolocation of the stretch of road where they were captured. Initially reported as Teply (Теплый), near Belarus, and then Khatsun (Хацунь). It turned out to be on Kyiv highway, after Kommuna (Коммуна), 53°04'47.4"N 34°33'16.7"E. Meduza reports on it.

 

[Mauro]

Lukashenko (Belarus' president) made declarations which undermine Putin's narrative about the Crocus terrorists planning to flee to Ukraine (bold is mine):

"They could not enter Belarus. Their handlers (we have suspicions about some of them, I'll call Putin and share my suspicions) knew that it would be a very bad idea to try to enter Belarus, because Belarus immediately reinforced security measures, just like a part of the oblast in Russia. In the very first minutes, I received a report from the KGB chief (he is involved in anti-terrorist activities). We put our units on combat alert, including forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Checkpoints were set up on roads, including on roads connecting Belarus with Russia; the forces of the KGB, the State Border Committee, and some military units were deployed. "That's why there was no chance they could enter Belarus. They realized it. So they took a turn and headed to the Ukraine-Russia border,"

https://eng.belta.by/president/view...ning-crocus-city-hall-terrorists-157028-2024/ (BelTA is the state-owned Belarus agency)

 

[john.phil]

Possible evidence for a false flag. It looks like a Russian secret services agent has been caught:

A lookalike to the subject in the theater video above was spotted arresting the first suspect:

Spoiler: A bit bloody

They seem to be a very good match to each other.

 

[John J.]

Possible evidence for a false flag. It looks like a Russian secret services agent has been caught:

That is interesting, the man in the theatre and the policeman (or whatever they are) do look similar.
Both men might have a mole above the bridge of the nose, near his right eyebrow. Not sure by any means though.

I don't think the dark watch strap on the left wrist is much of an identifying feature.

If it is the same man, I guess he could be a local cop/ FSB agent who was at the theatre innocently, to see the show like the other theatre goers.

@john.phil, may I ask who originally noticed the similarity (i.e. from what source do we get this)? Or was it your own original work? (well-spotted if so).

 

[Mendel]

Possible evidence for a false flag. It looks like a Russian secret services agent has been caught:

A lookalike to the subject in the theater video above was spotted arresting the first suspect

I don't think I understand.

There are two claims here.
1 — the secret service made the arrest. That seems plausible to me, false flag or not.
2 — a secret service agent sometimes attends the theater. (seems unrelated)

I'm not sure of the significance of Lukashenko's claims, because I can't check what insights Belarus actually had, and what they made up after the fact.

And the fact that the suspects fled towards Ukraine is somewhat plausible, pre-arranged or not. If I was one of the culprits, I'd assume that Ukraine would be one of the safest countries for me now.

 

[john.phil]

@john.phil, may I ask who originally noticed the similarity (i.e. from what source do we get this)? Or was it your own original work? (well-spotted if so).

It appeared first in the Ukrainian channels, it's been trending for a day now. I'd say the original source is probably the Ukrainian SBU, as they have been doing this type of work and making it public routinely. I only added the last picture.

They found another picture of a lookalike.

There are two claims here.

No, there are two hypotheses in this thread:

1) Ordinary terrorist attack;
2) False flag.

His presence in the theatre goes under hypothesis (2).

2 — a secret service agent sometimes attends the theater. (seems unrelated)

He doesn't seem to be alone there, his group in the theatre is known as the "blue men" in the Ukrainian channels. But certainly, it can all be a coincidence, they could be good friends and sometimes hang out together, or were there protecting an unnamed official. Those are arguments for hypothesis (1).

Under hypothesis (2), one of the blue men could be Mikhail Shvets, involved in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. The man is recorded gently pushing a woman and shouting to close the door after another "blue men" shouts instructions (or they are just agreeing with each other under hypothesis (1)):

 

[Mendel]

No, there are two hypotheses in this thread:

1) Ordinary terrorist attack;
2) False flag.

His presence in the theatre goes under hypothesis (2).

I don't understand that. Why would a secret service agent attending some theater at an undisclosed time be evidence for anything?

 

[john.phil]

I don't understand that. Why would a secret service agent attending some theater at an undisclosed time be evidence for anything?

That goes under (1), but there seems to be more than one agent. Under (2), their presence is suspicious, aimed at making sure the goals of the operation are fulfilled.

 

[Mauro]

And the fact that the suspects fled towards Ukraine is somewhat plausible, pre-arranged or not.

I doubt it. The Ukraine-Russia border is closed, and it's a heavily militarized war zone which is surely heavily surveilled, patrolled and controlled also on the Russian side (unless Russians are totally dumb): one of the most unlikely places to try to go through. The border with Belarus instead is open (Russia and Belarus even calls themselves 'the Union State').

If I was one of the culprits, I'd assume that Ukraine would be one of the safest countries for me now.

This assumes Ukrainians would welcome people just because they killed Russians, even if they did it by an awful act of terrorism. Quite improbable, not only because Ukrainians looks (to me, at least), not enough unhuman and bloodthirsty to even think of this, but also because the reaction of the West to Ukraine offering safe harbour to four ISIS terrorist who cold-bloodily killed 139 innocent people would not go down well at all. In effect, one of the most stupid things Ukraine could do to alienate Western support is to abet (or have abetted) the butchers of Crocus. Extremely improbable (unless Ukrainians are totally dumb).

 

[Mauro]

Under (2), their presence is suspicious, aimed at making sure the goals of the operation are fulfilled.

Oh c'mon, who's going to send an own agent to a place where you know four terrorists are going on a rampage with automatic rifles and grenades? With the aim 'to make sure the the goals of the operation are fulfilled'? With the 'operation' being a mass shooting, what does that even mean?


Crocus could have been 1) an ISIS terrorist attack, or 2) a Russian false flag, or 3) an attack using ISIS operatives but masterminded or abetted by Ukraine.

The prior probability of 1) is high: ISIS has a long history of terror attacks and they have their reasons to attack Russians. 2) is possible but with low prior probability, because Putin does not need a false flag to escalate in Ukraine if he wants (or if he could). This is not the same situation as with the 1999 apartment bombings: that one had a greater prior probability of being a false flag because Putin could benefit from it (as he actually did) by triggering the 2nd Chechen war (and notice I'm not saying 1999 bombing actually were a false flag). 3) has a very low prior probability, because it's not at all what Ukrainian have always done (fighting a war following war rules) and, should their involvement get exposed, they'd lose Western support (and the war).

The evidence we have for 1) is high: ISIS has taken credit for the attack and published videos which confirm they were the culprits. Evidence for 2), the false flag, is zero. Evidence for 3), Ukrainian involvement, is just Putin's words, which are unreliable by themselves (he, and his mouthpieces, lied shamelessly multiple times) and suspicious (because he benefits by saying that). They are also counterbalanced by Ukainians denies (which are as suspicious as Putin's words for the same reason, but with the advantage Ukrainian were never caught saying a lie so big, contrary to Putin), and they are gainsayed by the closest ally Putin has (Lukashenko). So we actually have more evidence against Ukarinian involvement than for it.

To sumk it up, it could have been an ISIS attack, a false flag, or an Ukrainian operation (or one billion more zero-probability different causes, aliens included), but the overwhelming probability is for the ISIS attack. There is a (very) small chance it was a false flag and a minuscule chance Ukraine was involved.

 

[Mendel]

That goes under (1), but there seems to be more than one agent. Under (2), their presence is suspicious, aimed at making sure the goals of the operation are fulfilled.

How would they go about "making sure the goals of the operation are fulfilled"?

You seem to be saying that the theatre clip was recorded at the Crocus complex at the time of the attack, is that correct?

 

[Mendel]

I doubt it. The Ukraine-Russia border is closed, and it's a heavily militarized war zone which is surely heavily surveilled, patrolled and controlled also on the Russian side (unless Russians are totally dumb): one of the most unlikely places to try to go through. The border with Belarus instead is open (Russia and Belarus even calls themselves 'the Union State').

Russian volunteers have repeatedly breached the border away from the frontlines.

Article:

Russian volunteers fighting for Ukraine said Tuesday, March 12, that they had launched a cross-border attack into the Belgorod and Kursk regions of Russia and are engaged in active combat.
UPD: The Freedom of Russia Legion announced via their official Telegram channel at 13:24 that the village of Tyotkino in the Kursk region reportedly came completely under the control of anti-Kremlin volunteers.

Source: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29369

That's up north where the suspects were headed. Their plan A may have been to cross into Belarus and enter Ukraine from there.

This assumes Ukrainians would welcome people just because they killed Russians, even if they did it by an awful act of terrorism.

I'm simply assuming that Ukraine won't extradite people to Russia, and that Russian secret service can't easily reach them there. You seem to assume the culprits wouldn't want to remain unknown.

In effect, one of the most stupid things Ukraine could do to alienate Western support is to abet (or have abetted) the butchers of Crocus. Extremely improbable (unless Ukrainians are totally dumb).

Yes. Doesn't prevent the culprits from wanting to seek refuge there, though.

 

[john.phil]

Oh c'mon, who's going to send an own agent to a place where you know four terrorists are going on a rampage with automatic rifles and grenades?

Russia would, and they weren't sent there, the agents were already there before they arrived (assuming there was more than one). Risk can be reduced by instructing them to:

1) Make entry through the parking lot (see animation in post #12);
2) Do not split;
3) Head to the theater's main entrance;
4) Engage people along the way;
5) Do not engage the balcony area;
6) Start a fire in the theatre;
7) Leave the theatre through the same path;
8) Leave the building through the parking lot.

With the instructions above, all the agents needed to do was to remain in the theatre, in the balcony area, and wait for their arrival and exit of the terrorists.

With the 'operation' being a mass shooting, what does that even mean?

That would be the means for the goals, not the goal itself. It would be the goal for ISIS, whatever that means for ISIS (their relationship with ISIS is still not conclusively established, by the way).

Crocus could have been 1) an ISIS terrorist attack, or 2) a Russian false flag, or 3) an attack using ISIS operatives but masterminded or abetted by Ukraine.

So far, no one tried to make a case for 3, hence my post stating there are only two hypotheses in this thread.

because Putin does not need a false flag to escalate in Ukraine if he wants (or if he could)

The false flag can be used for justification of escalation, Putin speaks to his internal audience as much as the external. I can think of several reasons where he would try to make the most out of a false flag in relation to Ukraine, but I also do not think that was his main goal under hypothesis (2).

ISIS has taken credit for the attack and published videos which confirm they were the culprits.

No, the news agency historically associated with ISIS published a text that looked suspicious. Then a photo was published with blurred faces and masks, the only relation with the photo and the suspects is the clothing. Then the footage appeared. Was it a live stream? Was it sent to ISIS during their escape? Was it taken directly from their phone after capture? Still, ISIS could have used them, the secret services took notice (the Western services certainly did), and the FSB decided to let them do it by creating the necessary conditions and shaping the plan (2a). Or there was never any ISIS, only the FSB (2b).

The evidence we have for 1) is high: ISIS has taken credit for the attack and published videos which confirm they were the culprits. Evidence for 2), the false flag, is zero

It depends on how you define "evidence", certainly there is suspicion, and the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

[john.phil]

How would they go about "making sure the goals of the operation are fulfilled"?

I can think of several actions they could have carried out to make sure the terrorists and the operation would succeed:

• Arrive early at the scene;
• Make sure security and police enforcement are either sent home, or significantly reduced, unarmed/outgunned, and stationed away from the entrance, and the path to the theatre;
• Take over the command of the security/police enforcement left, so they can be ordered to not engage;
• Keep clear the driveway towards the entrance;
• Take control of CCTV;
• Lock emergency exits along the way to curral people towards certain parts of the building (reduces casualties, and the probability of last second heroes);
• Identify, remove or protect people who shouldn't be there;
• Make sure the theater is destroyed in case the terrorists fail to do so;
• Make sure a stash of ammo and weapons is placed somewhere they know about, in case they need;
• Make sure the terrorists leave safely;
• Park a backup vehicle in the designated location they know about, and keep the exit clear;
• Make sure the terrorists escape through the planned highway route in an obvious, and possibly tracked, car.

You seem to be saying that the theatre clip was recorded at the Crocus complex at the time of the attack, is that correct?

That's already an established fact. Please, either watch it in full and together with the several other angles that are available on the internet, or accept my word, in case you don't want to see it because of the nature of the content, which is understandable.