COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

Mendel

Active Member
my state is famous for Lyme's Disease. Lyme is the town it was first discovered in.
Those were more innocent times. Today, there is an agenda behind calling this disease not by what it is, but by where it was discovered, and it's revolting to me.
 

Arugula

Member
But they could and they are letting us know they know it.
It's like if I said "I'm not going to, but I could dump your dog 3 states away because you let him bark all night."

While Tucker is a piece of work who often exaggerates for emotional effect, it does sound like a sort-of threat to me. (an illogical threat granted, they are complaining we are hurting their economy by banning tourism from all countries to China... so not selling us goods isn't going to help their economy much. )

But pointing out they could cut off our medical supplies isnt very friendly, in my opinion. I'm sure they were just venting though, everyone's tense these days.
That's fair. I just feel like the kind of saber rattling and the grandstanding over semantics that we're starting to see emerge is a cynical ploy to move the virus into the culture war as yet another wedge issue that divides Americans.
 

jonnyH

Senior Member
China pays $26 million (12% of the total budget), while the US pays around $99 million (22% of budget).
I know I'm being pedantic here, and it makes no difference to the point you were making (the US pays more than China), but if $26m is 12% of the budget then the budget is about $217m and $99m is not 22%, it's more like 46%.

That said, the WHO's annual revenue is nearer $3,000m and their annual expenditure closer to $2,500m according to their audited financial statements 2018 (see page 15). That would make the Chinese and American contributions more like 1% and 4% of expenditure respectively if the figures you quote are correct.
 

Arugula

Member
I know I'm being pedantic here, and it makes no difference to the point you were making (the US pays more than China), but if $26m is 12% of the budget then the budget is about $217m and $99m is not 22%, it's more like 46%.

That said, the WHO's annual revenue is nearer $3,000m and their annual expenditure closer to $2,500m according to their audited financial statements 2018 (see page 15). That would make the Chinese and American contributions more like 1% and 4% of expenditure respectively if the figures you quote are correct.
You're right! That math doesn't add up at all haha. I was looking at the scale of assessments, attached (the dues based relative to population and wealth). I suppose the actual amount a country is invoiced ends up varying quite a bit. Regardless, I think the idea that "The WHO is funded by China and should be seen as nothing more than a Chinese disinfo propaganda mouthpiece that does the bidding of its communist masters for more cash." is a wild oversimplification.
 

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Agent K

Active Member
China, US spar over origin of coronavirus
https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/china-us-spar-over-origin-coronavirus-doc-1pt57g3
 

Mendel

Active Member
You're right! That math doesn't add up at all haha. I was looking at the scale of assessments, attached (the dues based relative to population and wealth). I suppose the actual amount a country is invoiced ends up varying quite a bit. Regardless, I think the idea that "The WHO is funded by China and should be seen as nothing more than a Chinese disinfo propaganda mouthpiece that does the bidding of its communist masters for more cash." is a wild oversimplification.
The mistake is mixing years. 12% and 22% are the rates of the assessed contributions for 2020, but your dollar amounts are for another year. And as I said previously, the assessed contributions are the smaller part of their budget.
image.jpeg
In previous years, US contributions to the WHO (assessed and voluntary) were an order of magnitude larger than those of the Chinese, because of the large amounts of voluntary contributions received from the US and US-based or US-led organizations.
 

Mendel

Active Member
pandemic.internationalsos.com tracks the international health situation; their business model seems aimed at business travelers. They have a fairly extensive collection of worldwide information. Here's their current data on the US:

Travel Restrictions
Daily Summary
I am surprised to see the situation in the US escalate that quickly.
 

Arugula

Member
The tech world is buzzing about Chloroquine (an common, existing Malaria drug) being a potential treatment for the virus, and today President Trump announced the FDA will set up a clincal trial.

The drug has apparently had some success in Chinese trials:

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/coronavirus-covid-19-choroquine-data/


Here's an explainer about how a Chloroquine & Zinc treatment would work:

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&feature=youtu.be&t=92
 
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Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Sacramento County, next to where I live, is instituting a "stay at home" order starting midnight tonight. You can go out for "essential activities" which includes:
https://www.saccounty.net/news/latest-news/Pages/SacCountyHealthOfficerIssuesCOVID-19Order.aspx
Nice you can still go out for a bike ride. I think a lot of people hear about there orders, and think it's some kind of total lockdown. But you can still go out to the store, and still go out to exercise. Yout can even go round to a friend's house.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I'm not sick, but I just had a 'telemedicine" consult with my doctor (using doxy.me). She said it was her first one ever, and the clinic is closed to non-emergency visits. This all is going to be a huge push in the adoption of remote medicine.
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
This all is going to be a huge push in the adoption of remote medicine.
I don't know how remote it could possibly be (after this crisis anyway), I would think liability insurance would go through the roof if drs aren't checking you hands on.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I don't know how remote it could possibly be (after this crisis anyway), I would think liability insurance would go through the roof if drs aren't checking you hands on.
Well, you can't get a full physical, that's for sure. But I think there will be a push to integrate things like FitBit and Apple Watch health monitoring (activity, plus and blood oxygen), and eventually some other things like smart scales and blood pressure monitors. There was no need for me to come in for this consult.
 

derwoodii

Senior Member
Bayer employee fired after refusing to obey 14-day quarantine order


https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/17/WS5e70dce6a31012821727fda4.html


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIxemsojWdQ


Bayer China fires employee(Australian citizen) for breaking coronavirus quarantine rule in China
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/italy-s-coronavirus-death-toll-overtakes-china-s-n1164121


https://singularityhub.com/2016/04/05/how-to-think-exponentially-and-better-predict-the-future/

 
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Agent K

Active Member
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/italy-s-coronavirus-death-toll-overtakes-china-s-n1164121

https://singularityhub.com/2016/04/05/how-to-think-exponentially-and-better-predict-the-future/

Use log scale. Reported U.S. cases increasing tenfold every 8 days.
1584678159563.png

Deaths are increasing at a slower rate, though the slope increased a bit.
1584678236938.png
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member
today i did cross city drive Mornington to Daylesford typically this trip is a grueling 3 plus hour stop start on arterial & fwys chore... today i would estimate 30 to 50 % less traffic and generally no traffic snarls..
 

Rory

Senior Member
I've received a few forwarded messages of advice the last few days from well-meaners. One was a well-known video by "Dr" Dan Lee Dimke telling people to blow their faces with hairdryers. This has been debunked by Snopes and other places:
Another one I received (from unrelated people in the US, Mexico, and the UK) was a 4 minute 24 second voice message that begins "The Chinese now understand the behavior of the COVID-19 virus, thanks to autopsies that they have carried out." None of them seem to know where it came from, though a video of it on youtube (with full text in the description) says it came from a friend of a colleague of the narrator, out of Dr Negrin Hospital in Gran Canaria.

Seems pretty bunkum, but the main takeaway were things like "drink hot liquids" and "wash your hands every twenty minutes", which I suppose are harmless.

The hairdryer guy, by the way, on his own (very strange) website has at least posted this:
 
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Mendel

Active Member
The Guardian has a story about a woman who sent a message from her hospital bed that then went viral on social media.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-warning-of-woman-with-covid-19-shared-online
 

Agent K

Active Member
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-warning-of-woman-with-covid-19-shared-online
A polar opposite story
"Her Facebook Friends Asked If Anyone Was Actually Sick. She Had an Answer."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/us/politics/coronavirus-heaven-frilot-mark-frilot.html
 

Mendel

Active Member
A medical worker from Louisiana describes the impact it's had on him and his hospital and his patients. I decided against quoting his description of the symptoms, because it is fairly graphic, but the whole article is worth reading anyway. https://www.propublica.org/article/...ilure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients
I was wondering why he doesn't mention Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), but I expect they either don't have these machines on his ward, or not enough to matter.
 

derwoodii

Senior Member
most of Australia will enter a form of community lock down today or this week

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-22/coronavirus-lockdown-what-it-means/12079242

What business will be closed?

On Sunday night, Mr Morrison announced a crackdown on public venues.
From midday on Monday, the following businesses will be closed:
  • pubs
  • clubs
  • cinemas
  • casinos
  • nightclubs
  • indoor places of worship
  • gyms
  • indoor sporting venues
What businesses will be left open?

Under the new measures, cafes and restaurants will be able to operate, but only to offer take away and delivery services.
Hotels will be allowed to continue operations in an accommodation capacity.
  • supermarkets
  • banks
  • petrol stations
  • pharmacies
  • convenience stores
  • freight and logistics
  • food delivery
  • bottle shops
  • hairdressers and beauticians
huh Im surprised about hair beauty suspect its over looked mistake or this is Hitch hiker guide golgafrinchans planning
 
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deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
hair beauty suspect its over looked mistake
it's probably a "size of crowd" issue. usually the lady in the chair next to you is about 5 feet away. maybe 4 feet. but normally hairdressers have like 20 people in there at most at any given time. at least around where I live. ?

bottle shops are liquor stores? my state has liquor stores listed under "essential businesses". :)
 

Agent K

Active Member
it's probably a "size of crowd" issue. usually the lady in the chair next to you is about 5 feet away. maybe 4 feet. but normally hairdressers have like 20 people in there at most at any given time. at least around where I live. ?
As they teach in sex ed, it's not just the number of partners you've had, but the number of partners your partner has had.
Sorry to treat hairdressers like lepers, but the San Francisco order says, "You cannot go to a nail salon or get your hair cut by a stylist or barber."
We'll end up looking like this
 
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Agent K

Active Member
A contrarian view from John Ioannidis, the author of Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

"A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data" by John Ioannidis, March 17
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
He didn't address the situation in Italy at all.

David Gorski's response
Source: https://twitter.com/gorskon/status/1240311947083595782
 
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Agent K

Active Member
A contrarian view from Paul Offit, the co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/DrPaulOffit/posts/680515489366995

March 15
Mick's response on Facebook
1584933023404.png

Offit ignored the fact that the coronavirus can be spread by people who don't show symptoms, so telling the sick to stay home wouldn't work. And he talked about the coronavirus death toll as if it's settled and not growing. Italy's demographics don't explain why its fatality rate is twice as high as Japan's.

He's said some other odd things.

1584929022250.png

I'm not sure what he meant by regional outbreaks. The pandemic is global, and has caused tens of thousands of cases and thousands of deaths. Epidemiologists predict that half the population will be infected if strong measures are not taken. Michael Osterholm said that the coronavirus is primarily spread by breathing, not fomites.
But Offit told "ZDoggMD" that the coronavirus spreads more like polio than like the flu, because various quarantine measures were able to stop the coronavirus but not the flu.
He also said that rotavirus, which causes diarrhea, is primarily spread NOT through the fecal-oral route (contrary to Wikipedia) but through respiration, which is why nearly every child in the world is infected with a rotavirus at least once by the age of five.

1584929536911.png

A case fatality rate of 0.7% is seven times that of seasonal flu, and about a third that of the Spanish Flu in the U.S.

1584929786215.png

It took him 26 years to develop the rotavirus vaccine, so he's skeptical that a new vaccine can be on the market within 2 years.

He made one good point, though I don't know where he got the 20% unemployment rate..
1584930686314.png
 
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deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
He made one good point, though I don't know where he got the 20% unemployment rate..
the stimulus package guy has been saying that number
1584937398986.png

but Offit is also forgetting that watching everyone die in droves around you (or your 36 year old husband while youve got 2 small kids at home) will increase stress related disorders and addiction etc too. Plus I personally think we will see an increase in American manufacturing, now that we've all had a bit of a wake up call re: how dependent we are on foreign goods whose production could be wiped out by the next virus.
(not to mention what an incredibly good pre-run this is for us. the next virus could be as deadly as SARS, target the young and have the long incubation period of COVID-19. now we get a chance to contemplate what did and didn't work during this outbreak.)
 

Mendel

Active Member
fecal-oral route
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Steckbrief.html#doc13776792bodyText1 (someone said there is an English version, I haven't found it yet?)
Smear infection: (a) A transmission via smear infection/transmission via contaminated surfaces can't be ruled out on principle. Its impact [on actual transmissions] is unknown. Frequently, infection chains were identified that are best explained by direct transmissinon, e.g. via droplets. (b) Often, Covid-19-patients had stool samples that returned positive results on PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) tests (3-5). For an infection via stool, viruses must be able to reproduce, so far this has been demonstrated in one study (6). Its data indicates that this demonstration succeeds rather rarely.
The numbers in parentheses indicate references to literature listed at the bottom of the original page. The impression this conveys to me is that while Covid-19-infection via the fecal-oral route is theoretically possible, its practical impact seems low.

It's worth considering that the impact of an epidemic is judged via "excess mortality", i.e. how many people died (of any cause) compared to how many people we would have statistically expected to die under normal circumstances. This measurement encompasses non-Covid-19 deaths that occurred because the health system was overwhelmed. But it also includes the effect that due to the general social distancing rules, we're bound to have fewer traffic accidents or pub brawls or sports injuries. (It'll be interesting to see if domestic violence goes up.)

The RKI has included Covid-19 in its Influenza screening; as it spreads, it'll feature more in the weekly screening reports, and will give us an indication of how wide-spread it really is in the population.
 
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Mendel

Active Member
it's to highlight to readers the bits on the page you are referring to in your comment.
I did not refer to the bit beginning "in the medical sector", and it's irrelevant to the nature of the epidemology of Covid-19 that Dr. Paul Offit is discussing. I still don't understand why you highlighted it.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
It's worth considering that the impact of an epidemic is judged via "excess mortality", i.e. how many people died (of any cause) compared to how many people we would have statistically expected to die under normal circumstances. This measurement encompasses non-Covid-19 deaths that occurred because the health system was overwhelmed. But it also includes the effect that due to the general social distancing rules, we're bound to have fewer traffic accidents or pub brawls or sports injuries. (It'll be interesting to see if domestic violence goes up.)
That's a measure of the impact that you can't really get until it's over - maybe long after. There are also things like increases in suicides due to the stock market crash, and the coming economic recession (or depression), and a variety of other effects on the uninfected.

Right now the picture is rapidly evolving, chaotic, with limited information, and not looking good. So the governors are faced with tough and unpopular decisions. Arguments that we are overreacting seem based on either assuming the current numbers won't get any worse or some hindsight overview that is not yet available. Those arguments are also made by people who don't have the same access to the intelligence briefings and experts that those who actually make the decisions have.

Metabunk 2020-03-23 09-36-01.jpg

New York City has about the same population (8.6 million) as the Lombardy region of Italy (10 million).
Lombardy vs. NYC.jpg
 

Mendel

Active Member
Those arguments are also made by people who don't have the same access to the intelligence briefings and experts that those who actually make the decisions have.
I find that I have access to a lot of the same information that experts have. And I have access to broadcasts with experts on youtube. I can see the press briefings of the RKI and the WHO and enjoy a daily podcast with Germany's top virologist explaining the scientific view of the latest studies and data. I have the website of my local governments, national health authorities, the ECDC, and the WHO, who is also offering distance courses on Covid-19. Youtube doesn't ordinarily recommend that to me, but apparently the Johns Hopkins people also do events.

My impression is the same as in other cases where people go down rabbit holes: that they either do not seek out the information they have access to, or distrust it (or both), and that they do not understand the maths/science that gives us a good model to understand what is going on (in this case, exponential (better: logistic) growth); and that they instead trust bogus authority figures who (sometimes unintentionally) mislead them by telling them what they want to hear and what makes them feel better. This is only human, but also aggravating.

The situation in China has been well documented. The situation in Italy has been well documented and put paid to any feelings of distrust or superiority we had towards the data emerging from China.

This is not about access to information. This is about the openness of mind to accept what this information means for our future.

On a related note, I watched the WHO press conference just now, and the strategy Michael Ryan is pushing is to use the opportunity of the slowing of the spread to really make an effort to identify cases, isolate them, and quarantine contact persons. It's what worked for the countries who managed to get a grip on their situations, and it's the only way we currently have to really fight this virus.
 

Arugula

Member
It appears President Trump is signaling that he favors ending the guidelines put in place on for social distancing and business closures at the end of this month, despite COVID-19 cases still exponentially growing in the US.

Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1241935285916782593


https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...20ea0a-6cfc-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html
 
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