2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran

[Mick West]

Article:

On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States launched a joint attack on various targets in Iran. The operation, codenamed Roaring Lion (Hebrew: מִבְצַע שְׁאָגַת הָאֲרִי, romanized: Mivtsá She'agát Ha'arí) by Israel, and Operation Epic Fury by the United States Department of Defense, began with a series of strikes against locations in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. Explosions were observed as Israeli defense minister Israel Katz confirmed an attack by the Israel Defense Forces.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States had launched strikes on Iran alongside Israel, declaring that the objective was to destroy Iran's missile and military capabilities, prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and ultimately topple the regime. He called on members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to lay down their arms in exchange for immunity, warning that refusal would mean "certain death".[26]

The initial attacks targeted key officials, military commanders, and facilities, including the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which satellite images show was heavily damaged or destroyed. Khamenei is reportedly cut off from contact.[28] It was also reported that Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani was killed.

In retaliation, Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles throughout the Persian Gulf and beyond, targeting Israel and US military bases in Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, the Houthis announced that they would resume attacks in the Red Sea.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli%E2%80%93United_States_strikes_on_Iran

This is a general discussion thread for this current event.

It's a very dynamic situation, with a lot of "Fog of War", and spin from all sides. One of the more significant claims from Iran is that a girls school was hit, killing 50+ girls. That has the potential to shift world opinion on the strikes.

What's very unclear is how regime change will be achieved without troops on the ground, which is deeply unpopular in the US. The US took out Maduro in Venezuela with minimal casualties, but it's still the same regime there.

Conspiracy-theory related? I'm sure there will be lots.

 

[john.phil]

What's very unclear is how regime change will be achieved without troops on the ground

First step is the assassination of the Ayatolah in a surprise strike, for now unclear if it was successful. Then popular revolt, and in case it fails, the alternative is to maintain pressure until the Iranian regime comes to the negotiation table.

 

[Giddierone]

It amazes me that Ukraine being invaded by Russia is seen by this administration as too far away to be bothered about, and no threat to America, while Iran somehow poses an existential threat to American interests and the budget to deal with it is limitless. Make it make sense.

 

[Ravi]

Conspiracy-theory related? I'm sure there will be lots.

Inviting a lot of speculation now, is that a good idea, Mick?
I am not going to enjoy this forum much more if we keep on discussing politics over interesting debunk stuff.
Just my opinion.

A little more explanatory: for me this forum is a kinda "escape" from the insane world around me. A kind of place to clear the mind so to say. Not a place to absorb even more crap crazyness.

 

[MapperGuy]

Looked through the videos being posted online of missiles (ballistic and cruise) both incoming and outgoing.

People being exposed to these videos are sometimes asking questions about what they are seeing. So more people are being exposed to video that might, under other circumstances might be mistaken for UFO's. For example different exhaust trails being left behind, which change in character as the missile leaves the atmosphere, or pass from within the Earth's shaddow into the sunlight. One was dark for the early part of the missiles flight, then became white at higher altitude, and became much broader leaving the atmosphere, all of which was described by one poster in response to anothers question. A learning experience for some.

 

[john.phil]

For example different exhaust trails being left behind, which change in character as the missile leaves the atmosphere, or pass from within the Earth's shaddow into the sunlight. One was dark for the early part of the missiles flight, then became white at higher altitude, and became much broader leaving the atmosphere,

Any links to share for this particular phenomenon?

 

[Mick West]

Inviting a lot of speculation now, is that a good idea, Mick?

Just getting ready. Any large event like this will have a lot of conspiracy theories. It helps to pay attention at the start.

 

[Mick West]

First step is the assassination of the Ayatolah in a surprise strike, for now unclear if it was successful.

Article:

Iran's militant and unyielding supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled the Islamic Republic for more than three decades and oversaw an era of harsh internal repression and confrontation with the United States and Israel, has died following the Israeli strike in Tehran, as his compound was reduced to rubble, a senior Israeli official told Fox News Digital.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/world/irans-supreme-leader-ali-khamenei-dead-after-idf-strike-hits-tehran-compound-israeli-source-confirms

Not fully confirmed, but seems likely.

 

[MapperGuy]

Any links to share for this particular phenomenon?

This is the one I was thinking of.

Iran Missile Launch

 

[JMartJr]

Then popular revolt, and in case it fails, the alternative is to maintain pressure until the Iranian regime comes to the negotiation table.

My impression was that they were already at the negotiating table, that negotiations were in progress.

 

[john.phil]

My impression was that they were already at the negotiating table, that negotiations were in progress.

Iran was too strong at the table.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed "additional talks" would take place, but reiterated his restlessness over the absence of a deal.

"I'm not happy with the fact that they are not willing to give us what we have to have," he told reporters as he left the White House for Texas. "I'm not thrilled with that, we'll see what happens."

source: https://time.com/7381568/united-states-iran-war-fears-nuclear-weapons-sanctions-talks/

 

[tjskep]

Iranian leader killed in airstrike on compound

BBC says trump reported his death after Benjamin netanyahu was shown a picture of his body in rubble. If this is true what happens now?

 

[john.phil]

Iranian leader killed in airstrike on compound

BBC says trump reported his death after Benjamin netanyahu was shown a picture of his body in rubble. If this is true what happens now?

Now the Iranian regime will most likely deny the death of their leader to gain time and to not appear weakened. Then, eventually, they're going to announce the death and appoint a replacement who will be kept hidden in a safe place. However, Trump made this statement:

This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country. We are hearing that many of their IRGC, Military, and other Security and Police Forces, no longer want to fight, and are looking for Immunity from us. As I said last night, "Now they can have Immunity, later they only get Death!"

source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn5ge95q6y7t

So, the expectation is for the Iranian people to come to the streets once the air strikes have subdued. The statement that the IRGC and other forces do not want to fight anymore is for encouraging people to take to the streets. The US is currently broadcasting in Persian over Iran to coordinate with the Iranian people.

 

[deirdre]

Just getting ready. Any large event like this will have a lot of conspiracy theories. It helps to pay attention at the start.

and this unbiased forum is the perfect place to tackle those. <that's sarcasm. Don't you have a quieter place y'all can keep track of this?

 

[Ann K]

I am not going to enjoy this forum much more if we keep on discussing politics over interesting debunk stuff.

Be selective in your reading. There's an option to ignore a thread if you choose.

 

[john.phil]

Looked through the videos being posted online of missiles (ballistic and cruise) both incoming and outgoing.

People being exposed to these videos are sometimes asking questions about what they are seeing. So more people are being exposed to video that might, under other circumstances might be mistaken for UFO's.

Probably, with so many Space X launches, this type of footage would not impress anymore, or would be quickly debunked, or explained by the alien visitation believers themselves.

Source: Post #9

 

[Giddierone]

Probably, with so many Space X launches, this type of footage would not impress anymore, or would be quickly debunked, or explained by the alien visitation believers themselves.

Source: Post #9
View attachment 88774

This one is pretty interesting in terms of filming fast moving objects (presumably on a phone). Makes me think of the https://www.metabunk.org/threads/st...r-malvern-hills-western-england-reddit.14371/

Source: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2027889492661567555?s=20

 

[Mendel]

Then popular revolt

is that at all likely, or wishful thinking? Putin/Ukraine comes to mind.
Evidence would be nice.

 

[Mendel]

https://religionunplugged.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israeli-escalation-aims-to-topple-iran-theocracy

As a result of these latest U.S. airstrikes, there are three possible paths forward regarding Iran's future:

— Elite fragmentation and reformist transition: If elements of the military or political establishment conclude that the current leadership endangers national survival, they could push for a controlled transition. This might preserve aspects of the Islamic framework while loosening clerical dominance. Religious freedom could expand incrementally, though not necessarily transform overnight.

— Popular Uprising: Iran has experienced repeated waves of protest over economic hardship and social restrictions. If strikes catalyze broader unrest and security forces hesitate to suppress it, a sweeping political reordering could follow. In this scenario, demands for secular governance and full religious equality could gain traction.

— Regime Consolidation: External attacks can strengthen hardliners. Nationalist sentiment could rally support around the current leadership, leading to intensified repression. Under this outcome, religious minorities and dissidents might face harsher crackdowns, framed as countermeasures against foreign subversion.

This is from January, from an expert who predicted the attack ("before Nowruz — 20 March 2026 — Israel in coordination with the US will carry out another attack on Iran"):
https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/08...major-upheaval-iranian-analyst-tells-euronews

Naghibzadeh: Absolutely not. The moment the supreme leader disappears, they will tear each other apart.

He is the hook holding them together. Once it breaks, internal conflict will explode. Iran today resembles 19th-century Sicily — surrounded by mafia networks.

 

[john.phil]

is that at all likely, or wishful thinking? Putin/Ukraine comes to mind.
Evidence would be nice.

It's not wishful thinking because, before committing to action, various scenarios are typically examined, with popular revolt being just one of them. The issue is that the protesters are unarmed, and the regime is highly likely to respond with unprecedent violence. We know this scenario is being tried because Trump has been vocal about it. But even if a revolt fails to bring change, and the protests in Georgia come to mind, it will further weaken the regime. In Ukraine's case, the Maidan Revolution successfully expelled Putin's puppet. A weakened regime can be compelled to negotiate on terms far more advantageous for the region.

 

[Mendel]

. In Ukraine's case, the Maidan Revolution successfully expelled Putin's puppet.

Yes, but that wasn't precipitated by an overt foreign military intervention.
I was referring to Putin thinking the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians with open arms and depose Zelensky. That didn't happen at all.

 

[Gary C]

Two problems with the Popular Revolt concept.

1. It depends on a sufficient mass of Iranians disliking the regime more than they dislike the countries that just dropped a few thousand pounds of high explosives into their neighborhoods.
2. The Iranian security forces have dealt with mass protests several times over the years and have already killed or arrested tens of thousands who are even suspected of opposing the regime, evidence or not. As in the past they've already imported extra thugs from the militant proxy groups they support such as Hezbollah to do a good deal of the repression.

It is very unclear that this is a realistic goal for an outside power.

FWIW I consider Ian Bremmer as close to a neutral analyst of geopolitics as it is possible to be in a polarized America. You may find this useful

But regime change from the air is far more complicated than destroying facilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could reconstitute power even if senior leadership is removed.

The broader risk: instability across the Gulf, energy shocks, and escalation beyond what Washington intends.

https://www.gzeromedia.com/video/quick-take/the-us-and-israel-launch-war-on-iran

 

[Oystein]

The Iranians already succeeded with popular revolt - in 1979, against the Pahlavi Shahs, for Ayatollah Khomeini.
That was a well-prepared popular revolt, with a clear direction, with the population knowing who they were trying to bring in to replace the current dictatorship.

No such leadership and no such organization exists now. It's ironic, laughable and sad that the son of the ousted Shah appears to be the only opposition poster boy.
Decades ago, the USA already helped prop up the Pahlavi dictatorship - and it made the Iranians truly and justifiably hate America.

Bombs on Iran - how could they possibly NOT delegitimize ANY non-Mullah leader? History repeating.
We'll see massive "Rally around the Flag" events, with genuine popular support for the Mullahs and whomever will succeed Khamenei.

Sure, there will also be renewed opposition rallies, but no air ans missile strikes could possibly take out the massive on-the-ground suppression that the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia can call on.

There will be massive bloodshed.
There will be no boots on the ground to support and protect opposition rallies.
With no clear endgame in sight, how could anything good arise from this mess?

 

[NoParty]

...I am not going to enjoy this forum much more if we keep on discussing politics over interesting debunk stuff.
Just my opinion.

A little more explanatory: for me this forum is a kinda "escape" from the insane world around me. A kind of place to clear the mind so to say. Not a place to absorb even more crap crazyness.

But is it really discussing politics OVER interesting debunk stuff? I don't think so. Debunk posts still massively outnumber political ones.

And while I share your "escape" take (I sincerely appreciate the sanity & brains of this group) I don't see any need to curtail these
threads, when avoiding them is the easiest thing in the world: The only thing easier than clicking on a thread, is not clicking on a thread.

 

[NoParty]

I think it's pretty safe to say, given the demonstrable incompetence of the Trump administration,
that the reason we aren't hearing much about the end game, is that there is no plan.

But bombing is fun, looks tough to the hoi polloi, and takes the headlines away from Trump's buddy Epstein.

And of course, anyone bombing Iran is just trying to mask their own incompetence, prior to an election.
(at least, according to Donald J. Trump)
https://www.wionews.com/world/-i-pr...hits-iranian-nuclear-facilities-1750611647574

 

[Giddierone]

The only thing easier than clicking on a thread, is not clicking on a thread.

IIRC isn't this the Allen Carr method of giving up smoking? I seem to remember a chapter about how it's easier to not do something than it is to do something. Worked for me!

 

[Ravi]

Taken from the MB guidelines:

The goals of Metabunk are

1. To find and expose bunk
2. To prevent bunk from forming and spreading.
3. To develop and promote efficient methods of finding, exposing, and preventing bunk
4. To create re-usable debunkings (antibunk)
5. To help people escape the rabbit hole, either directly, or by giving tools to their friends

This thread does not meet any of this. But I will shut op and not read this thread anymore.

 

[john.phil]

I was referring to Putin thinking the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians with open arms and depose Zelensky. That didn't happen at all.

That was the narrative for both the internal and external audiences. What Putin thought was that there would be no significant resistance, in part because he had infiltrated all branches of the government and weakened it from within, and taking over Crimea was a piece of cake.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Re: The girl's school

I was confused about why a school would even be open on Saturday. Isn't that the Islamic Sabbath?

What I found out:
1. Islam doesn't have a Sabbath in the way Judaism and Christianity conceive of such a thing. The reason: In Islam God did not rest on the seventh day of creation because God doesn't get tired.
2. Friday is the most important day of the week for religious observance but there is no tradition of "rest." Logistically less work gets done because you're expected to spend quite of bit of time in worship. But you're entirely free to get work done after your worship.
3. Friday is the day when government offices, schools and so forth are closed. Not because you're not allowed to work, but because you are given time to worship.

Saturday is the first day of the work week. Thursday has been a half day for many people for a long time. There's been a push to make it a full day. Or to switch from Thursday to Saturday.

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/420048/Redefining-public-holidays-weekends-how-efficient-is-that

Friday is the official weekend in Iran while many offices and even banks are open on Thursdays till noon, however, schools are closed both on Thursdays and Fridays. In other words, unlike European, American and even Arab countries the official weekend in Iran is only one day.

Altering weekend holidays

Discussions over a bill to redefine weekends, shifting the nation's weekend from Thursday and Friday to Friday and Saturday, are still underway.

Many believe that different weekends from almost the whole world is holding Iran's economy back; the four-day holiday difference with almost the whole world is causing difficulties for Iranians.

In Islam, Friday is given the most importance than any other days of the week, so shifting the weekends from Friday is out of question, but it is not very harmful to change the Thursdays to Saturdays to promote the country's interaction with the world economy.

This also has importance for another issue. Why did the attacks begin on the weekend (Saturday) when government and military officials would be at home? Wouldn't you want to catch them "at the office"? I've seen several talking heads pondering that question.

The answer is that Saturday isn't the weekend in Iran. Saturday is their Monday.

 

[Mendel]

Taken from the MB guidelines:



This thread does not meet any of this. But I will shut op and not read this thread anymore.

Well, it's a form of pre-bunking.

However, I thought you had already clicked this link at the top of the thread, or I'd have mentioned it sooner:

 

[deirdre]

Well, it's a form of pre-bunking.

freudian slip?

 

[deirdre]

Article:

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike Saturday as part of a massive joint military operation between the U.S. and Israel, Iranian state media confirmed.

The latest: The Iranian government announced 40 days of public mourning following the "martyrdom" of the 86-year-old ayatollah, who had ruled Iran for over 36 years.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-killed-israel

 

[Ravi]

Well, it's a form of pre-bunking.

However, I thought you had already clicked this link at the top of the thread, or I'd have mentioned it sooner:
View attachment 88791

I have not noticed that button before, thanks!

 

[JMartJr]

I was confused about why a school would even be open on Saturday. Isn't that the Islamic Sabbath?
...
The answer is that Saturday isn't the weekend in Iran. Saturday is their Monday.

As far as I can tell, all of this is correct, as it relates to Iran.

So just as a side-note, to expand on what Z.W. Wolf posted, in case it becomes important as the situation plays out across the region, Iran differs from some other Muslim countries in the region in this regard, for example:

in Dubai and throughout the UAE, the weekend officially falls on Friday and Saturday. This is related to the Islamic tradition, in which Friday is a day of prayer, considered the holiest day of the week. However, in 2022, the UAE introduced a change, moving the weekend from Friday and Saturday to half a day on Friday (after prayers) and full Saturday and Sunday in the public sector. However, in the private sector, Friday and Saturday remain standard days off.

Source: https://twocontinents.com/blog/working-week-and-holidays-in-dubai

The Saudi working week begins on Sunday and ends on Thursday. Friday and Saturday are the official days of rest, but in certain cases Saturday might be considered as a working day.

Source: https://www.lloydsbanktrade.com/en/market-potential/saudi-arabia/opening-hours

KUWAIT CITY, 28 May 2007 — Kuwait yesterday decided to switch its weekend to Friday-Saturday from Thursday-Friday, starting Sept. 1, State Minister Faisal Al-Hajji told the official KUNA news agency.

Kuwait will follow the example of Gulf partners the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar which made the same switch last year in a measure designed to bring them closer to the working week in the West.

Source: https://www.arabnews.com/node/298933

(You do enough kite festivals in the region, you get to know when the weekends are! ^_^)

 

[NoParty]

I am not going to miss Ayatollah Khamenei, who was, I think, on balance, bad for his own people, and the world.

That said, I have concerns that maybe that is questionable criteria for bombing a country & assassinating their leader.

If it is, how many people around the world would say the current USA leadership is bad for their own people, and the world?

 

[Ann K]

I think it's pretty safe to say, given the demonstrable incompetence of the Trump administration,
that the reason we aren't hearing much about the end game, is that there is no plan.

But bombing is fun, looks tough to the hoi polloi, and takes the headlines away from Trump's buddy Epstein.

And of course, anyone bombing Iran is just trying to mask their own incompetence, prior to an election.
(at least, according to Donald J. Trump)
https://www.wionews.com/world/-i-pr...hits-iranian-nuclear-facilities-1750611647574

There is also a profit to be made, if you're sufficiently ghoulish and in a position to profit from insider trading. Three articles this morning point to misbehavior well beyond the stated reasons for war (apart from the usual "distraction" theory).

#1 - follow the money.

• Six accounts on Polymarket made around $1 million in profit by betting on the US to strike Iran by Feb. 28, according to analytics firm Bubblemaps SA.
• These accounts were all freshly created in February and had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur, with some of their shares purchased hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.

These are the hallmarks that blockchain analysts associate with insider trading in prediction markets, an industry without widespread oversight and no agreed-upon methodology for distinguishing luck from leaks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-28/polymarket-iran-bets-hit-529-million-as-new-wallets-draw-notice?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MjMyODk4OSwiZXhwIjoxNzcyOTMzNzg5LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUQjZKOVdLR0lGUTMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJGOUU0RDg4NjE3MkM0Nzc3QUVFMDk3NTdCODRDQTlBRCJ9.2U5_jslnRNuct9hoLhRXF9q6vWT4H0hfM0U8c3jBrPE&leadSource=uverify wall

#2 - leak the information.

A group at a Washington D.C. restaurant was talking openly in the bar area Friday afternoon about a national secret that was about to literally explode hours later -- the bombing of Iran.

Attorney Mark Geragos was at Joe's Seafood, Prime Steak & Stone Crab at around 3:00 PM ET, getting something to eat and preparing to do the "2 Angry Men" podcast with Harvey Levin ... from his seat in the bar area.

Just before 3:45, Mark overheard people at the next table in the bar area talking about Iran. ...... Mark says one of the men said in a voice loud enough for him to clearly hear … the U.S. was going to bomb Iran "today."

one of the guys at the table was singing this to the tune of The Beach Boys, "Barbara Ann," ...
"Bomb Bomb Bomb
Bomb Bomb Iran."
It's literally the definition of "Loose lips sink ships."

https://www.tmz.com/2026/02/28/men-at-washington-dc-bar-brag-about-iran-attacks-before-it-began/

#3 - who made the decisions?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made multiple private phone calls to Trump over the past month advocating a U.S. attack, despite his public support for a diplomatic solution. Netanyahu, meanwhile, continued his long-running public campaign for U.S. strikes against what he views as an existential enemy of his country.

The attack came despite U.S. intelligence assessments that Iran's forces were unlikely to pose an immediate threat to the U.S. mainland within the next decade.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/28/trump-iran-decision-saudi-arabia-israel/

 

[Gary C]

Well, it's a form of pre-bunking.

Based on the known behaviors of the participating regimes and the history of modern conflict, bunk to watch out for include:

• Excessive claims of military success
• Which leaders have/have not been targeted or killed
• Accusations of third-party interference or support
• Unsubstantiated claims of sci-fi weapons being employed

 

[Mendel]

 

[JMartJr]

Based on the known behaviors of the participating regimes and the history of modern conflict, bunk to watch out for include:

• Excessive claims of military success
• Which leaders have/have not been targeted or killed
• Accusations of third-party interference or support
• Unsubstantiated claims of sci-fi weapons being employed

These days, I'd add:

Fake AI videos of spectacular, unrealistically huge explosions.
Recycled video of impressive explosions in earlier wars claimed as from the current war.
Click-bait false stories of major destruction of various well known locations on social media.
Use of real footage of missiles and anti-missile weapons, bombers, etc. from the current conflict, claimed to be UFOs.

 

[deirdre]

I am not going to miss Ayatollah Khamenei, who was, I think, on balance, bad for his own people, and the world.

That said, I have concerns that maybe that is questionable criteria for bombing a country & assassinating their leader.

If it is, how many people around the world would say the current USA leadership is bad for their own people, and the world?

what do your political comments (and the rest of the political speculation in this thread) have to do with documenting a current event?

@Mick West