Iran's Drone and Missile Attack on Israel. April 13 2024

[Mick West]

Article:

CNN
—
Iran has launched drones toward Israel, amid fears of a regional escalation following an apparent Israeli attack on an Iranian embassy complex in Syria last week.

Several dozen drones were launched from within Iran, a senior US administration official told CNN. Iran state media also confirmed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had "launched extensive drone strikes against targets in occupied territories," referring to Israel.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/13/middleeast/iran-drones-attack-israel-intl-latam/index.html

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3iXxwOAHbQ


These drones and cruise missiles are still in the air, as they take several hours to arrive. So the extent of the attack remains to be seen. But it's likely to be a major escalation in regional hostilities with potential global implications.

As it's a major event, there will be a wide variety of conspiracy theories. Probably a few UFO sightings too.

 

[Duke]

Iranian drones will have to transit at least a couple sovereign airspaces to hit Israel, probably Iraq and Syria. The Israelis would make short work of either of those nations' attempts to interfere with them flying east to shoot them down before the drones reach Israel. Things would get interesting in a hurry if the drones overfly Turkey, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia and the Israelis attempt to shoot them down over those countries. The possibility also exists for drones and missiles to malfunction and hit any of those surrounding nations.

 

[John J.]

Iran's news agency IRNA reports that ballistic missiles have been launched against Israel, according to the BBC

IRNA source says Iran has launched wave of ballistic missiles

Tehran has launched its first wave of ballistic missiles towards Israel, a source tells Iran's state news agency IRNA.
The missiles were fired at targets "deep" into the country, they add.

Iran launches drones at Israel in retaliatory attack, BBC News live reporting, edited by Fiona Nimoni, 23:12 (GMT) 13/04/24
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710

The report was accompanied by this graphic

 

[Mick West]

The shortest distance from a point in Iran to Israel is over 1,000km. So only the Shahab 3 missile has the range. However they are also using "suicide drones" - i.e. UAVs - slower moving fixed wing drones.

 

[john.phil]

But it's likely to be a major escalation in regional hostilities with potential global implications.

I believe it will be similar to Iran's latest attack on Pakistan, mostly for internal audience consumption. Iran is more likely to keep using Hezbollah against Israel, instead of engaging in a direct conflict.

 

[Mick West]

I believe it will be similar to Iran's latest attack on Pakistan, mostly for internal audience consumption. Iran is more likely to keep using Hezbollah against Israel, instead of engaging in a direct conflict.

Isn't this a direct conflict?

 

[john.phil]

Isn't this a direct conflict?

Only when both sides actually hit targets in each other's territories, and directly retaliate, instead of using proxies. When one side announces they are attacking with slow weapons, giving plenty of time for defence, this is sabre rattling and propaganda. Once any of the drones hit the ground, even if away from any targets, the internal propaganda machine will make it look like they hurt Israel in proportion, and vengeance was achieved, no further escalation would happen, unless Israel decides to attack Iran's air defences.

 

[Mick West]

Sky News was live reporting sirens, explosions and missiles in the sky (possibly interceptions) over Jerusalem.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOhF6V_nJKg

(around 1:46 local time)

 

[Duke]

Sky News was live reporting sirens, explosions and missiles in the sky (possibly interceptions) over Jerusalem.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOhF6V_nJKg

(around 1:46 local time)

From the YouTube link above, it claims (according to the Israelis) US and UK aircraft have shot down Iranian drones over Iraq and Syria.

 

[john.phil]

Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran's military action was in response to the Zionist regime's aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran's response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!

source:
Source: https://twitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053


And that's all about it, internal audience satisfaction.

 

[Mick West]

Some dramatic looking footage from Israeli new channer N12. Interceptions over Southern Israel (Mitzpe Ramon, near the Ramon Airbase, a possible target)


Source: https://twitter.com/N12News/status/1779286692467179712



Source: https://twitter.com/N12News/status/1779290193452728401

 

[Todd Feinman]

Horrible. What a species.

 

[deirdre]

they hit one military area, no casualties.
attack still going on

IDF speaks up to minute 2.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYpwlL-MF2c

 

[Mendel]

Iranian drones will have to transit at least a couple sovereign airspaces to hit Israel, probably Iraq and Syria. The Israelis would make short work of either of those nations' attempts to interfere with them flying east to shoot them down before the drones reach Israel. Things would get interesting in a hurry if the drones overfly Turkey, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia and the Israelis attempt to shoot them down over those countries. The possibility also exists for drones and missiles to malfunction and hit any of those surrounding nations.

source: https://www.axios.com/2023/10/31/american-troops-middle-east-israel-palestine

 

[Duke]

Iranian state TV aired footage of what it claimed to be the aftermath of the country's drone and missile strike against "Israel". However, the BBC Monitoring team clarified that the footage is actually from a forest fire in Chile.

The BBC's team posted screencaps of Iranian state TV footage -which it claimed was minutes ago in "Israel"- and the old footage of the fire in Chile, which date back to February 2024.

https://en.royanews.tv/news/50684/2024-04-14

 

[john.phil]

Once any of the drones hit the ground, even if away from any targets, the internal propaganda machine will make it look like they hurt Israel in proportion

Iranian state TV aired footage of what it claimed to be the aftermath of the country's drone and missile strike against "Israel". However, the BBC Monitoring team clarified that the footage is actually from a forest fire in Chile.

As expected.

 

[Mendel]

It all reminds me very much of the Iranian reaction to the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, attacking US bases in the region, except that this time, no airliner got shot (in fact, nobody seems to have died).

Article:

On 1 April 2024, an Israeli airstrike destroyed the Iranian consulate annex building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria,[2][6] killing 16 people, including a senior Quds Force commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and seven other IRGC officers.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_bombing_of_the_Iranian_embassy_in_Damascus

Article:

In 1998, Qasem Soleimani, the new commander of the Quds Force, appointed Zahedi as its Lebanon Corps leader, responsible for providing arms and technical expertise to Hezbollah.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Reza_Zahedi

Article:

However, according to Iran, the intercepted drones were "kamikaze" Shahed 136 drones meant to saturate the above-mentioned Israeli air defense system, such that the tens of the ballistic missiles launched in the second wave could breach this multi-layered system,[42] which, according to Tasnim, successfully hit their targets, inflicting significant damage to the bases used for the attack on the Iranian consulate.[42][43]

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_in_Israel

I can understand how Israel considers the Quds Force an enemy that justifies bombing an embassy (or embassy-adjacent building) in another country.
I can also understand how Iran considers that bombing an act of war that justifies retaliation.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

https://wiki.destiny.gg/view/Ryan_McBeth

Ryan McBeth is an American open-source intelligence analyst, programmer and content creator. He primarily focuses on combatting disinformation and misinformation, especially regarding warfare...

McBeth concentrates on state sponsored disinformation and how private citizens are brought into that process on social media. A reminder that these days conspiracy theories are often generated and shaped rather than evolve "naturally."

So far this is what he thinks about the event itself. We'll see how the narrative is shaped.

I want to talk about last night's drone swarm in Israel and what we might see in the coming days. Iran fired 195 drones at Israel, 110 ballistic missiles, and I think 25 cruise missiles. Doing some rough math here, that's maybe 5 to 10% of their inventory. I think this attack was basically a way for Iran to save face. Firing these slow-moving drones gave Israel and the Coalition plenty of time to get aircraft up in the air and prepare for the attack. Know that I really think the F-35 fighter is performing incredibly during this conflict.

So the next question is whether or not there's going to be a Counterattack and there might be. We probably won't see it. It will probably be a Cyber attack against some of the Shahad Drone building facilities in Iran. And if you're wondering why didn't Israel hit those drone facilities with a Cyber attack when Ukraine was being bombarded, it's because all nations act in their own best interest and a Cyber attack is a One-Shot weapon. After the attack, the enemy knows how the attack was conducted and they can take countermeasures. So I think this is the end of things but again, this is the Middle East.

Source: https://youtu.be/b7iP_-44n24?si=Hy6gfbumuh8Pnt30

 

[yoshy]

Some encouraging news regarding de-escalation

'NYT': Netanyahu dropped retaliation against Iran after Biden call

The decision was made in part because Tehran's drone and missile attacks "caused relatively minor damage."

Israel abandoned the option of launching a retaliatory strike on Iranian territory following a Saturday phone call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden, The New York Times reported on Sunday, citing officials in Jerusalem.

https://www.jns.org/nyt-netanyahu-dropped-retaliation-against-iran-after-biden-call/

 

[Mendel]

Today:

Article:

Shortly after midnight, "three drones were observed in the sky over Isfahan. The air defense system became active and destroyed these drones in the sky," Iranian state TV said.

Iranian media and officials described a small number of explosions, which they said resulted from Iran's air defences hitting three drones over the city of Isfahan. Notably, they referred to the incident as an attack by "infiltrators", rather than by Israel, obviating the need for retaliation.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19/

 

[Mauro]

This has not been publicized by the big news channels for what I know, but there are reprots Israel launched its (very limited, yet biting) retaliation attack against Iran:

Israel used radar-evading missile to hit S-300 defenses near Natanz nuke site – report

NYT says attack was 'calibrated' to show Israel's capability to dodge Iran's air defenses, make Tehran 'think twice' before another assault; Iran's FM claims it merely faced 'toys'

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...n-strike-on-iranian-s-300-near-natanz-report/

This seems to be corroborated by a satellite SAR image:

Umbra synthetic aperture radar imagery acquired 0648Z 19APR2024 showed evidence of damage to the Iranian S-300PMU2 strategic surface-to-air missile battery in Isfahan since 15APR2024. A probable damaged 30N6E target engagement radar was visible in imagery still on the radar hardstand. Other battery system components however have been withdrawn from the site. Their status and location is currently unclear. According to senior U.S. military sources speaking to FOX News, "The Israelis hit what they intended to strike."

Source: https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1781436224248435107