2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran

[MapperGuy]

Hmmm... I concede all of your points, while noting that Panama is also mountainous (and digging a canal there was a monumental undertaking, which, being much more useful, was undertaken anyway.) The utility being limited, the effort is not worth it. But sometimes countries in that part of the world dive into big projects that are do not strictly make a lot of sense...

A more reasonable soluction would be multiple pipelines from The Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, entirely within Saudi Arabia. Being a fixed structure it would be vulnerable to attack, but being entirely on Saudi territory it would be much easier to defend than moving ships in the Persian Gulf.
It would be expensive, and take a long time to build. Everybody wants quick solutions. The only quick one is paying off Iran, also expensive.

 

[Gary C]

A more reasonable soluction would be multiple pipelines from The Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, entirely within Saudi Arabia. Being a fixed structure it would be vulnerable to attack, but being entirely on Saudi territory it would be much easier to defend than moving ships in the Persian Gulf.
It would be expensive, and take a long time to build. Everybody wants quick solutions. The only quick one is paying off Iran, also expensive.

The Saudis and Emeratis did think of that as a back up to tankers but there are limits.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqTKKgdlCHY

 

[Hevach]

The thing about pipelines is like Internet vs. sneakernet. The Internet feels really fast and direct and it definitely has advantages of flexibility and response time, but a box of hard drives is still vastly faster at moving a lot of data.

The Strait of Hormuz handles 20+ million barrels per day of oil and when nobody's shooting that's nowhere near any kind of limit. The biggest pipelines in the world (mostly in Russia but there's a few big ones in Saudi Arabia as well) top out at around 1.5 million each.

 

[Mendel]

The thing about pipelines is like Internet vs. sneakernet. The Internet feels really fast and direct and it definitely has advantages of flexibility and response time, but a box of hard drives is still vastly faster at moving a lot of data.

The Strait of Hormuz handles 20+ million barrels per day of oil and when nobody's shooting that's nowhere near any kind of limit. The biggest pipelines in the world (mostly in Russia but there's a few big ones in Saudi Arabia as well) top out at around 1.5 million each.

Source: https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz

20 mb/d, around 25% world seaborne oil trade, transits the Strait – 80% destined for Asia.

3.5 to 5.5 mb/d of pipeline capacity with the potential to re-direct crude flows to avoid the Strait.

 

[MapperGuy]

Why?

Many reasons.

Lack of provenance. Who took it? Nobody claiming credit, so not likely an Israeli government video, and if it was they would not have put it our for public view (bad publicity).
Video taken over Israel? If it's not an Israeli government drone it's a shot down drone and the person controlling it is arrested, and unable to post video from it.
Nothing in the media has suggested the large number of impacts in one area that would have produced the level of destruction shown.
Burning buildings and no emergency vehicles fighting the fires or rescueing survivors? Highly unlikely. Flames and associated smoke unrealistic.
That doesn't look like Israel, buildings too far apart, width of road and cleared areas on both side of the unrealistic.
The shot panning across many destroyed buildings might be from Gaza, but obviously not collected at the same time as the drone video (no smoke or flames).
Only one vehicle moving down the empty main road? Implausible
Motive for someone posting a fake like this: many. Discourage Israel supporters, inflame Israel foes.

 

[John J.]

The following YouTube video shows parts of Israel looking like Gaza. Is it bunk?

Yes, it's bunk. Well, propaganda.
Israel is relatively affluent with a largely tech-savvy population. There is no internet or cellphone blackout.
It's also small- about 9% bigger than New Jersey, with an additional (roughly) half a million people, or fractionally smaller than Wales in the UK, but with nearly 3 times the population.
If there were urban areas with this level of widespread devastation, we'd know about it.

 

[Gary C]

More reinforcements headed to a war that is 'mostly won'?

Marine Expeditionary Unit Deploying To The Middle East​

A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a highly versatile, self-sustained, rapid-response force. Embarked aboard amphibious assault and landing ships, each MEU has fully integrated air, ground, and logistics components. Its four key elements are as follows:

Command Element: Serves as the headquarters for the entire unit and allows a single command to exercise control over all ground, aviation, and combat service support forces.

Ground Combat Element: Provides the MEU with its main combat punch. Built around a Marine infantry battalion, and reinforced with artillery, amphibious vehicles, engineers, and reconnaissance assets.

Aviation Combat Element: The ACE consists of a composite medium helicopter squadron containing transport helicopters of various models and capabilities, attack helicopters and jets, air defense teams, and all necessary ground support assets.

Logistics Combat Element: Providing the MEU with mission-essential support such as medical assistance, motor transport, supply, equipment maintenance, and landing.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/marine-expeditionary-unit-deploying-to-the-middle-east-report

 

[Hevach]

2,200 marines will definitely mess up some stuff (pretend you need to pardon my French) but in the grand scale they're not the sort of thing that will change the greater course of a conflict with a country as big as Iran. A force like that is more of a scalpel - there's something they think they can remove and get out that just bombs won't do. I'll decline to speculate what that is for now. Social media seems focused on two things, Kharg Island and the strait itself.

 

[JMartJr]

2,200 marines will definitely mess up some stuff (pretend you need to pardon my French) but in the grand scale they're not the sort of thing that will change the greater course of a conflict with a country as big as Iran. A force like that is more of a scalpel - there's something they think they can remove and get out that just bombs won't do. I'll decline to speculate what that is for now. Social media seems focused on two things, Kharg Island and the strait itself.

Probably correct, but I note with some trepidation that escalation may be happening. IF they put 2,200 marines on the ground in Iran, it is too easy to have situations arise where you needs 2,200 more... and so on.

 

[Gary C]

So how does the Straight get opened again?

The U.S. Military is Weighing How to Move Ships Through the Strait of Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge​

THE PENTAGON — The U.S. is assessing how to reopen the flow of crude oil tankers and cargo ships through the Persian Gulf as the White House makes resuming regional trade a main priority across the government, the top military advisor to President Donald Trump said Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters at a press briefing, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine said the Pentagon is working on options to get commercial maritime traffic moving.

https://news.usni.org/2026/03/10/operation-epic-escort

 

[JMartJr]

So how does the Straight get opened again?

Apparently it is not closed, it's just that the Iranians keep shooting at ships, so ships aren't passing through the straits. But other than THAT, it's open.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic has essentially been stopped since the start of the war on Iran, is actually "open" and that military leaders "don't need to worry about it."

"The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that," the former Fox News weekend host told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hegseth-strait-of-hormuz-open_n_69b41587e4b09d87d026e796

Edit -- Finished post after hitting the post button inadvertently.

 

[qed]

Is the attack on Kharg Island a game changer in this war. Surely this will break Iran by eliminating its oil supply ability? Will Iran fail as a state after this?

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-14-26