Do we know that with certainty? While an MoD official might know what kinds of aircraft are BASED at any given location, it seems highly unlikely that he knows where one (or a group) might choose to go for a training run at any given time. And given their capabilities, they might have come from a considerable distance.
I think yes, we can take it as certain that the UK Ministry of Defence would know where any of its combat jets were within a few hundred metres.
As well as reports from the pilots themselves- and in the past pilots
have made unauthorized detours/ manoeuvres, e.g. (Wikipedia)
The Hawker Hunter Tower Bridge incident of 1968- Britain is a modest-sized island with very dense civil air traffic, and corresponding civil radar and air traffic control cover. The RAF's detection and tracking systems, e.g. UK Air Defence Ground Environment and its predecessors, often had problems in their "advertised" capabilities- the ability to track large numbers of low-level strike aircraft actively deploying countermeasures- but tracking a single aircraft (or pair of aircraft) would not be one of them (excepting perhaps low-level contour-following flights as per the Mach Loop- these would be very noticeable, and audible, outside of the three overland Tactical Training Areas, particularly to angry farmers in more rural areas).
...it seems highly unlikely that he knows where one (or a group) might choose to go for a training run at any given time.
He or she would be able to find out if they had a need to know. Advising a government defense minister about the presence or absence of a given aircraft type at a specific time and location implies a need to know. MoD civil servants ultimately answer to elected ministers.
The UK armed forces have haven't got the financial resources, legal authority or sufficient volumes of clear airspace for combat jet units to make impromptu, unlogged flights over the UK, nor did they in 1990.
And given their capabilities, they might have come from a considerable distance.
Yes, that has to be right.
Harriers squadrons were never based in Scotland but Harriers visited regularly... All UK Harriers (GR3 on) could refuel in flight (and frequently did).
I posted a picture of a GR5 arriving at Lossiemouth, July 1990 somewhere along the line. Any particular RAF type might be seen anywhere in the UK, and at some time or another most probably have been.
The Calvine/ Pitlochry area is no exception, but I think it's unlikely that there were Harriers present on the evening of August 4th, 1990 because the MoD minute (which was not in the public domain) says there were no Harriers present.
(This strongly indicates that the MoD can establish the whereabouts of British military aircraft- but I don't think that is seriously in question).
Looks like a Harrier to me, allowing for the fact that we don't know its precise orientation relative to the photographer, it's a very poor quality image and some of the edges are "washed out"/ made indistinct by light reflected from some of its surfaces.
I just don't think it's that simple.
It is that simple. It looks like a Harrier
to me. Unfortunately I can't demonstrate that it
is a Harrier! -Or representation of one.
You describe it as "...a blurry dot", to others it might be someone in a rowing boat. Our problem is none of us can convincingly demonstrate what it might be (and as you point out, in the absence of more evidence this might be irresolvable).
Personally, I think it's more likely that the "jet" is some kind of model plane, and given the poor quality of the photo, it's impossible to say with certainty what we're looking at.
Totally agree!

(Though maybe entertaining a lesser possibility that the photos were taken by someone other than the claimant, at who knows what location, and that they included real jets, the UFO somehow being added in later. This might explain why the claimant(s) didn't notice two jets).
When concluding that the blurry dot was a Harrier, the MoD had the negatives in their possession for about two days. Enough time for an investigation, perhaps, but hardly indicative of an especially thorough analysis.
You've stated something similar before, but again, what is it based on? Some (I think relevant) background re. the role and capabilities of JARIC etc., 1990 in
post #1734. It seems likely that the relevant agencies could provide intel. summaries within hours of imagery being received, from multiple sources and of multiple "targets".
I agree that the tradesmen/ women examining the Calvine photos might not, as individuals, have regarded them with any great seriousness, but their personal opinions about the circumstances of the photos would have been irrelevant.
Without the context, would people really still have interpreted the dot as a Harrier? Or is it simply the most convenient explanation because the photo was allegedly taken in Scotland?
But Hunters were actually based in Scotland. 2-seater Hunter T7s and T8s were used as trainers for the Buccaneer strike aircraft at RAF Lossiemouth, October 1984 to October 1991. Lossiemouth is approx. 71 miles/ 114 km from Calvine.
A squadron of Jaguar single-sear attack aircraft also operated from Lossiemouth at this time.
Larger 2-seater Phantoms were based at RAF Leuchars (east coast of Scotland) for some years before being replaced by similar-sized Tornado ADVs from 1989 (43 Sqn.) and 1990 (111 Sqn.) Both types were interceptors, and make much more sense as a UFO "chase plane" than the subsonic (and in the case of Hunter, antiquated) Harrier or Hunter: Leuchars Phantoms and Tornado ADVs made up part of the Quick Reaction Alert air defence force.
So while Harriers visited Scotland frequently, someone in the MoD saying (or thinking) "It's a combat jet, it's in Scotland therefore it's a Harrier" doesn't make much sense to me (and I don't get why that would be "convenient").
We can speculate about the additional five photos, and we can guess that the original negatives were of much better quality than the image kept by Lindsay. But that's just speculation.
Agreed. But that's not my (admittedly theoretical) contention, nor has it been.
My contention is:
It is not unreasonable to theorise that the six original photographs, and their negatives, contained more useable information
in total, when all were considered, than the one image we get on our screens, which is a digitized image of perhaps a copy-of-a-copy.
The five lost photos and six original negatives need not be of much better, or even equal, quality to the image we are familiar with for this to be true.
We might not like the conclusions drawn by the MoD (though frankly I don't see them as in any way problematic), but that doesn't change the fact that the MoD received six original photos and negatives, and the 1991 repeat tasking archived in DEFE-31-180-1 indicates, very strongly indeed, that they had been reviewed by an appropriate defence intelligence agency.
The conclusion made by the only people who examined the original material (
all the original material), and who had experience in photographic analyses (including, very frequently, of non-optimal images) and who probably knew what they were talking about was that they didn't know what "the diamond" was, but one jet was a Harrier and another jet was present, also probably a Harrier.
These conclusions might be incorrect, but our only
evidence that this might be the case seems to be "...it doesn't look like a Harrier to me" when we look at our image on a computer screen,
sans the original photograph and five others,
sans the negatives,
sans investigational optics.
The minute writer states that no Harriers were in the area at that time. This seems to me entirely consistent with a hoax.
Reading through the 3 sets of National Archives UFO reports,
none are described as hoaxes IIRC; I strongly suspect this was a policy decision.
I think the MoD thought it was a Harrier, because whatever was used was supposed to be a Harrier. It just makes sense.
Agreed.
...Single tail, top mounted wings and kinda stubby up front.
I've always felt that the supposed jet looked like a Harrier GR3, with the slender Ferranti laser nose "washed out" (if that's the right phrase) / otherwise obscured by some trick of the light.
Relatively small almost delta wings like in your Spanish AV-8A picture; later AV-8Bs (UK GR5-GR9) had larger, different-shaped wings and a raised cockpit and canopy.