The following is a retread of the comment I left on the Skeptic Substack article:
The Great Drone Panic of 2024...and 1914
Guest columnist Robert Bartholomew
https://michaelshermer.substack.com/p/the-great-drone-panic-of-2024and
Let's sort out a common misunderstanding. UFO flaps shouldn't be called mass hysteria. Mass delusion is the better term.
Mass hysteria has a more accepted term: mass psychogenic illness.
A classic example of mass hysteria: Rumors sweep through a high school dance that the punch has been tampered with. People start throwing up and fainting all over the gym.
Another: Someone smells what they think is natural gas. "There's a gas leak, everyone!" People start choking and fainting.
Most are not responding to the rumor, they are responding primarily to the physical symptoms of other people. The rumors are secondary.
There's nothing in the punch and no gas leak. But a phenomenon known as psychological contagion or emotional resonance is in play. People who are more attuned to the feelings of others start feeling the same way, and have actual physical symptoms. Other, more stolid folk, stand around looking at them wondering what the heck is going on.
Mass delusion involves large groups sharing a false belief, often rooted in social or cultural narratives. It influences behavior - in this case going out at night scanning the skies - and expectations. The expectations influence perception. People really do "see" flying saucers or mystery drones, because seeing is a personal experience created by the brain moment by moment.
"I know what I saw" is true in a way. They really did "see" a flying saucer while looking at Venus. And they really did "see" a mystery drone while looking at a mundane 737.
Mass delusion is not a diagnoses. It's a concept. It is not universally accepted, nor has it been formally defined by some professional body. Nevertheless I think it's a useful concept.
There's a process that's amplifying misperception.
Only misperceptions are reported. No one reports seeing ordinary air traffic. Therefore only the most unreliable witnesses are selected.
Superspreaders are the most unreliable witnesses. Yet they account for the majority of the eyewitness accounts. Thus this delusion is being created by a small fraction of the population.
That's not quite right, as deliberate hoaxes are also being generated.
The media is amplifying this because they know a good story. That's capitalism. Stories are accepted at face value.
Lack of knowledge plays its part. No one seems to understand visual perception. No one seems to understand that in 2-D photos, there's no information as to size and distance. When presented with these videos, people are primed by the eyewitness testimony to "see" car sized drones at hundreds of feet rather than normal sized airliners at miles.
In a photo, the Sun - at 93,000,000 miles - can be the same size as a ping pong ball at a few feet.
Please see :"Forced Perspective Photography"
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cl...ured-by-photographer.13182/page-3#post-302869
The second wave of amplification comes from the small percentage of the population who are eagerly consuming the stories. They all have their own paranoid/outlandish theories. Which they frame as wise and realistic evaluations.
Many people are highly skeptical of the mass delusion explanation. It makes no sense to them. They would rather believe in the most outlandish stories than in the fallibility of the human race.
The mass delusion explanation is framed as outlandish nonsense, while an Iranian mothership is framed as a wise but uncomfortable truth about the International Situation and the Dangerous Times in which we live.
The argument goes: People are reluctant to face uncomfortable truths. So they come up with a lullaby argument - the mass delusion explanation.
Mass delusion would be an outlandish explanation if it were argued that 100% or even 50% of the general population was seeing mystery drones that aren't there. But that's not the argument. This mass delusion involves only a small fraction of the population. And the awful and irresponsible way the media is reporting this story.
The
"All of them can't be wrong" fallacy
Yes they can, because we're only hearing from the ones who got it wrong.
Scenario: You give a hundred thousand people a driving test. Ten thousand of them get question 10 wrong. That means ten thousand people were wrong. All of them, without exception.
"Wait, a minute. Are you telling me ten thousand people could all be wrong?"
Yeah, they could. By definition. But
are you counting the people who got the question right?
On a test... yes you do.
But the right people aren't counted during a UFO Flap.
A million people look at Venus. Nine hundred ninety nine thousand nine hundred of them see Venus... or at least something they take to be a star or something unremarkable.
A hundred people see a flying saucer.
"Well, all of them couldn't be wrong."
Yeah, they could. Because
only the people who made a mistake were selected out. They're the ones who got the question wrong.
But what about all the people who got the question right? They're the "missing people" who weren't wrong.
But when it comes to UFOs, they're invisible.
The misperceptions are amplified to the point that they seem super important.
The logical fallacy here is
misleading or incomplete statistics (a form of lying with statistics). By not considering the majority of people who are not "seeing" or reporting mystery drones, the conclusion misrepresents the data as universal, implying that everyone who looked at a particular aircraft would "see" it as a mystery drone.
[More specifically, it's cherry-picking evidence or ignoring the denominator, which produces a distorted impression of frequency or significance.]
In terms of analytical statistics, the error is a failure to report the denominator or context of the proportion, leading to an overgeneralization. It omits key statistical measures like the sample size and the success rate, which are essential for accurate interpretation.