New Science of UAP Paper

I haven't heard about Ivan Sanderson in years. In my childhood (in the 1950s) he was a regular on the Garry Moore show, my mother's favorite, but back then he was just the tall man who brought all sorts of animals on the show. I had no idea the cheese had slipped off his cracker later in life.
 
Is VASCO even active still? Their latest activity as far as I could tell was a blog post in April 2024 and that early 2024 Tedx talk.
 
Is VASCO even active still? Their latest activity as far as I could tell was a blog post in April 2024 and that early 2024 Tedx talk.

Hard to say, it's not the most enlightening website. It was just one of the many UFO programs "reviewed" in the paper, which then leads down a rabbit hole of connected programs like the European UFO Crash Retrieval Initiative, SpaceLaserAwareness, VASCO's Solar glint program and the old photographic plates program. I looked into it because it sounded interesting and the possible connection with KTF and the journal this paper is supposedly being presented to. There's more programs and personalities to track down.
had no idea the cheese had slipped off his cracker later in life.
That's how he got famous, but he was also into Fortiana and monsters, besides underwater UFOs:

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Sanderson was an early follower of Charles Fort. Later he became known for writings on topics such as cryptozoology, a word Sanderson coined in the early 1940s, with special attention to the search for lake monsters, sea serpents, Mokèlé-mbèmbé, giant penguins, Yeti, and Sasquatch.

Sanderson's book Abominable Snowmen argued that there are four living types of abominable snowmen scattered over five continents.[5][6] The book was criticized in the Science journal as unscientific.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_T._Sanderson

I mention him, only because the paper mentions his USO book. Given Sanderson's lasting legacy, it seems a bit dubious for an academic paper, unless specifically stating it's part of the cultural history or UFO/USOs, rather than evidence for their existence. Again, I heard somewhere that he may have jumped on the Crypto/UFO/Bermuda Triangle bandwagon(s) more for the book sales. Either way, not great evidence for USOs.
 
As the resident Swede, I'll try to shed some light on Villarroel, VASCO and also the description of the two Scandinavian UFO periods (the Ghost Flyer of the 1930s and the Ghost Rockets of 1946) which is presented in the paper.

First of all, I think VASCO was (or is?) funded mainly by a grant from Vetenskapsrådet (A Swedish science government agency, they give out most grant money and you send the ethic review (I don't recall the English terminology right now, but you know, the description of what, if any ethical concerns your proposed study has) there, among other things. At least, at 3,150,000 SEK it dwarfs the other known contributions which is the L'Oreal UNESCO Prize for Women in Science in Sweden of 150,000 SEK and a couple of stipends from Märta and Erik Holmberg's research grant fund, totaling 137,500 SEK. On the page of the grant [source in Swedish] it is stated that the project time period ran from 2018-2020:

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Projektperiod 1 januari 2018–31 december 2020
but by doing some very simple guesstimating from my knowledge of what a Swedish employee costs, if she never hired anyone else she could have maybe made the grant money stretch out for four years or so, and since some papers where published after that and she's now employed at NORDITA I am assuming she now gets money from somewhere else (as a general rule, academic positions in Sweden are very precarious things. You live and die by your funding, which in turn translates to 2-4 year contracts at your university and real tenure is very rare outside of a few fields, but don't quote me on that or which fields...) or that she has been extremely frugal with her grants, essientially giving herself a rather lousy salary for someone with her education who also lives in Stockholm. I do not know if it is even possible to do that, I have no idea how much autonomy she has had over the grant money.

Anyhow, my impression by her and VASCO (which seems to be a pet project of hers that she probably spends at least some of her own free time on) is that she is a bonefide astronomer who has written at least one "big" paper but who also has a bit of a kooky side (the remote viewing does not instill confidence). That she works with UFO-Sweden when it comes to her more directly UAP focused activities, on the other hand, does instill confidence. UFO-Sweden is, unlike most other citizen "UFO hunter"-groups I know of, mainly "serious debunkers who want to believe". They house the world's largest archive on UFOs, including the official UFO files of both the Swedish and Danish military.

So, when I read the paper's description of the Ghost Flyer and the Ghost Rockets flaps in Scandinavia, I thought it would be good to contrast that with how UFO-Sweden describes it. Since the original pages I will quote from are in Swedish, I have translated them to ease the reading, and anyone who wants to double-check it can run the original sources through a translation service of some kind or spend a few years of their lives learning a language that is both surprisingly difficult to master and useless outside of a very small and sparsely populated area in northern Europe.

So. On the topic of the Ghost Flyers the paper says the following:

External Quote:

These were thought to be airplanes involved in smuggling and, as such, had attracted the attention of Swedish customs and the Swedish Air Force, which conducted surveillance.
and a bit further down:

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The investigation concluded with the statement that "There have never been any Ghost Flyers." However, General Pontus Reuterswärd published his own statement that "It could not be denied that a violation of our nation's air space has been going on" [70], for which he was heavily criticized. The Swedish military later issued a final report in July 1935 concluding that 42 of the 487 reports were of actual aircraft violating the countries' borders. As a final assessment, it should be noted that very few of the sightings were similar to modern UFO sightings [65].
In contrast, UFO-Sweden writes:

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Many view the Ghost Flyer-wave [Tr. note: or "flap" as is more commonly used here] over northern Scandinavia as one of the first large UFO-waves. But if you look more closely at the enormous material that today is available at the Archive for UFO-research in Norrköping [Tr. note: now known internationally as AFU: Archive for the Unexplained] there are reasons to bring some nuance to that view. Though a few UFO-cases were reported it was not a UFO-wave.

Missinterpretations, airspace violations from foreign nations and pure hysteria accounted for the majority of the events this strange winter.

The star of Sirius and the eternally misunderstood planet of Venus confused many persons. That is not hard to understand. Suddenly, half of Sweden's population were looking to the skies in hope of finding a Ghost Flyer - the majority of whom had never previously studied the starry skies. Most people did not get to see any aircrafts, but bright lights that could easily be interpreted as the mysterious Flyer.
The paper doesn't even mention that the most likely suspect of those few actual airspace violations weren't thought by the military intelligence of either country (they were exchanging information between each other) to actually be smugglers, but German spy planes. UFO-Sweden even gives a model (Heinkel He60) and a point of origin (the German cruiser Leipzig, patrolling along Norway's northern coast). Equally puzzling, giving the amount of details given for the cases from 1947 and forward is the fact that they don't bring up the more extraordinary cases from the Ghost Flyer years, such as the event at Vávrrosvárri (Fagerfjellet) in 1934 which UFO-Sweden describes like this:

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On the 6th of February a "ghost machine" was seen making an emergency landing on Vávrrosvárri outside Tromsø. The event was spectacular. When the rescue team arrived, they found tracks in the snow, 75 meters long and four meters wide, from some kind of machine. A person who saw the landing itself reported having also seen two persons by the machine and tracks from them were also seen in the snow [Tr. note: here the sentence Swedish is ambigous as to whether it was the person who reported seeing the landing who had seen the tracks, or if it was the rescue team. Logically, it would be the rescue team, since there would be very little reason for someone down in the valley to try and reach the mountain top in February if they weren't also part of the rescue team]. Two days later aviation experts who had gone up on the mountain explained that it was impossible for an aeroplane to lift from the place.
I mean, this is a case with actual, physical traces after a machine that the local aviation experts (whatever that means) claimed could not be any aeroplane they knew of, since it couldn't have achieved lift-off (which is a very fair point, given that, as most Scandinavian mountains, it is completely devoid of anything even remotely similar to a plateau or mesa that could be used as a landing strip)! I mean, it was more probably a prank done by some locals or a German spyplane that they somehow managed to destroy or get down from the mountain without the Norwegians finding it, but it is still a better case than most, evidence-wise!

In conclusion, while the paper seem to want to make a point (but it is not clear what kind of point) with the statement that "As a final assessment, it should be noted that very few of the sightings were similar to modern UFO sightings", when you read the descriptions from UFO-Sweden they very much seem to fall into common UFO-report categories of "bright celestial bodies", "mass hysteria" and "actual aircraft" and other prosaic explanations, together with a small number of hoaxes. I'm assuming that what the authors mean is that since people in general thought the Ghost Flyers were human aeroplanes (which a few of them actually were) that was also how witnesses usually described them even when they had mistaken Venus for a booze smuggler, just as after the term "flying saucer" was introduced to common parlance, people started describing UFOs as flying saucers, and today we have "orbs" and "tic-tacs".

Onwards to the Ghost Rockets of 1946 (perhaps another famous example of the shape of UFOs being determined by public expectations and zeitgeist, as it was just after WWII and rockets were all the rage). They are only given a very short sentence on their own in the paper:

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Scandinavian observations of unidentified aircraft, referred to as "ghost rockets", resumed in the late-1940s. As a result, they had an impact on American UFO investigations at that time [72].
Which is strange, since it is by far the more famous and mysterious of the two Scandinavian UFO-flaps. It is alluded to further down, when discussing Project SIGN, the paper states this:
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Unexplained sightings, such as these, were complicated by the fact that the Brigadier General Erik H. Nelson (who, at the time, was a technical
advisor for Scandinavian Airlines) revealed that there had been unidentified aircraft observed in Scandinavia again, which were not only rocket-shaped, but also in the shape of discs and spheres [92]. When the Americans inquired about this, the Swedish Air Intelligence Service stated that[72]

"some reliable and fully technically qualified people have reached the conclusion that "these phenomena are obviously the result of a high technical skill which cannot be credited to any presently known culture on earth."
Now, I am far from an expert on the Ghost Rockets, I just know the basic gists and I haven't even read Clas Svahn's (the undisputed nestor of Swedish ufology and paranormal phenomena) writings on the subject. But lets compare this to what UFO-Sweden writes:

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The objects traversed over Sweden in the most varied flight paths and even though many–the military included–suspected the Soviets as the culprits behind what was seen as a shelling they never managed to confirm their suspicions. In theory it could be Russian experiments with captured German V-rockets that were now flight tested from bases along the coast. In practice, this was very difficult to prove.
The article in Swedish is quite long and substantial, but it should be noted that nowhere in it is the non-human hypothesis mentioned seriously in what is known from the archives or the interviews with witnesses, both military/government officials and civilians. In the final report of the Defence Staff's Space Projectile Committee (colloquially known as "The Ghost Rocket Committee"), even the conclusion about the rockets being actual test rockets fired from an unknown (but probably the Soviet Union) adversary were toned down, since the physical evidence was non-existant if you don't count one crater/depression and dislodged water lilies in a small lake. It should be noted that the military personell that investigated the lake strikes never doubted that something had actually fallen into the lake, the man quoted in the article says that he thinks it was made from a magnesium alloy so it would leave almost no traces after splashdown (how feasible that explanation is, I do not know, but I do know what happens to magnesium in contact with water...).

My impression of the article is that at least when it comes to the Scandinavian cases of the 1930s and 40s, it is written by someone who a) wasn't very knowledgeable about it and b) introduced bias, either from the sources used or by themselves, in an attempt to make it seem more supportive of the NHI theories of UAPs.
 
I put all the individual photos from the VASCO image into TinEye and got a couple more identifications.

Alina Streblyanska
Alina Streblyanska.png

That image of her can be found on this page (about 3/4 the way down) research.iac.es/severoochoa/severoochoa2011-2015/index.php/people/postdoctoral-fellows

Information about her is here linkedin.com/in/alina-streblyanska-95b2375b/?originalSubdomain=es

She's a co-author of an article in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, "A Cost-Effective Search for Extraterrestrial Probes in the Solar System", which contains a link to this paper academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/mnras/staf1158/63939841/staf1158.pdf

Abel Souza
Abel Souza.png

That image of him can be fouind here asouza.io/

He's named on mdpi.com/2218-1997/8/11/561 as part of "Launching the VASCO Citizen Science Project", which has an article related to the subject matter of the OP.
 
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IMG_3234.jpeg

This person is perhaps Geoffrey Marcy. He can be found from photos posted to Vasco Facebook group (see https://m.facebook.com/story.php?st...2kVQ7FnrxrDk8FqVS6r9U3Nnkl&id=100062210268941)
He is a co-author in some of the related publications (e.g. https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/527/3/6312/7457759?login=false)

For comparison: a screenshot from a YouTube video featuring Geoffrey Marcy in 2022. Source:
Source: https://youtu.be/_vAyacBoMGo

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Marcy

Dr. Beatriz Villarroel tells about the consequences of working with Geoff Marcy here: https://psu.pb.unizin.org/hxlibrari...and-controversies-in-the-astronomy-community/

IMG_3235.jpeg
 
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Phrased differently, more complete data collection does in fact identify UAP... as boring stuff. The only remaining "mysterious" UAP remain in the Low Information Zone, which is merely pushed farther out by better data collection efforts and sensor technology. This is evidence that there is, in fact, no new phenomenon to be studied here.
The "Low Information Zone" isn't proof there's nothing left to study. It's just where rare, fleeting phenomena sit until instruments catch up. Ball lightning, sprites, fast radio bursts - those all lived in the LIZ for years, dismissed as mistakes, until better data proved them real. Saying everything we can explain is boring, so the rest must be too ...is circular logic.
 
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The "Low Information Zone" isn't proof there's nothing left to study. It's just where rare, fleeting phenomena sit until instruments catch up. Ball lightning, sprites, fast radio bursts - those all lived in the LIZ for years, dismissed as mistakes, until better data proved them real. Saying "everything we can explain is boring, so the rest must be too" is circular logic.

Everything that can be positively identified has been identified as prosaic. The place where aliens live is in the low information zone which will always exist. This is where people insert their god into this gap. Aliens fill in nicely as a god here. Everything with enough information to be identified is boring and there is no reason to think that the fuzzy blob seen from 17 miles away on FLIR is anything other than something also boring. If you have evidence that suggests it is something else then post it.

The default assumption is that something is boring until you can show that it's not boring. If the default assumption was that it's extraordinary until proven otherwise then we should be investigating elves and how they make the internet work. All the wires are just for show, I don't have any evidence of this, but it feels true.
 
Everything that can be positively identified has been identified as prosaic. The place where aliens live is in the low information zone which will always exist. This is where people insert their god into this gap. Aliens fill in nicely as a god here. Everything with enough information to be identified is boring and there is no reason to think that the fuzzy blob seen from 17 miles away on FLIR is anything other than something also boring. If you have evidence that suggests it is something else then post it.
I was composing a similar analogy of "Aliens of the Gaps", but you posted first and far more succinctly than my effort was shaping up to be.
:)
 
Saying "everything we can explain is boring, so the rest must be too" is circular logic.
That would be circular, but we are not saying that.
We are saying, "we can explain everything that we have good data for."
See https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ufo-acronyms-what-is-the-liz.11742/post-258778 for an explanation of the LIZ.

UFOlogists say, "the bad data shows there's something there. It could be a UFO!"
We say, "our sensors are getting better all the time. How come we still don't have good data on a UFO?"

Alien Observers
alien_observers.png

https://xkcd.com/2572/

Settled
settled_2x.png

https://xkcd.com/1235/
 
Everything that can be positively identified has been identified as prosaic. The place where aliens live is in the low information zone which will always exist. This is where people insert their god into this gap. Aliens fill in nicely as a god here. Everything with enough information to be identified is boring and there is no reason to think that the fuzzy blob seen from 17 miles away on FLIR is anything other than something also boring. If you have evidence that suggests it is something else then post it.

The default assumption is that something is boring until you can show that it's not boring. If the default assumption was that it's extraordinary until proven otherwise then we should be investigating elves and how they make the internet work. All the wires are just for show, I don't have any evidence of this, but it feels true.
A few months ago someone with one of the UFO-hunting groups that had set up a bunch of cameras and sensors commented how even with better gear they weren't capturing clear images of alien craft, saying something like, "It's as if they know how far our sensors can reach and stay just beyond that."

With all due respect...
 
The "Low Information Zone" isn't proof there's nothing left to study. It's just where rare, fleeting phenomena sit until instruments catch up. Ball lightning, sprites, fast radio bursts - those all lived in the LIZ for years, dismissed as mistakes, until better data proved them real. Saying "everything we can explain is boring, so the rest must be too" is circular logic.
I thought the claim of UFOlogists was that there were real physical entities from outer space intruding on earth's air space. If so, those cannot be "rare fleeting phenomena", but actual things, if the tales they tell have any validity. Rest assured, meteorologists and other scientists will continue to study atmospheric phenomena, but that's an entirely different matter from all the "boring" objects that we have been able to identify.

You cannot "prove" a negative, nor do skeptics have any responsibility to do so. The ball is in the other court, and it's up to the UFO believers to provide us some POSITIVE evidence of their claims, preferably unambiguous.
 
As others have noted, pushing the LIZ back is the responsibility of the person making the claim. Depending on the LIZ to avoid having your claim disproven is where the bulk of UFOlogists are actually operating in the here and now. Skeptics did not create this problem.

[edited because my spelling is caffeine dependent these days]
 
Everything that can be positively identified has been identified as prosaic. The place where aliens live is in the low information zone which will always exist. This is where people insert their god into this gap. Aliens fill in nicely as a god here. Everything with enough information to be identified is boring and there is no reason to think that the fuzzy blob seen from 17 miles away on FLIR is anything other than something also boring. If you have evidence that suggests it is something else then post it...
I get the point you're making, but I think the framing is doing too much work. Calling the "default assumption" boring until proven otherwise isn't really a scientific position — it's a philosophical one. Science doesn't pre-label phenomena as boring or extraordinary; it asks what the evidence supports, and stays open until the evidence improves.

Fast radio bursts, ball lightning, sprites — before they were measured properly, the default assumption was that reports were mistakes or folklore. But new instruments showed otherwise. Treating them as "boring until proven extraordinary" would have delayed investigation, and that kind of stance veers into pseudo-science.

So sure — it's safe to say not every fuzzy blob is extraordinary. But dismissing the whole LIZ as "boring by default" risks confusing lack of data with lack of phenomenon. The real default isn't "boring" or "extraordinary" — it's just...unknown.
 
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I thought the claim of UFOlogists was that there were real physical entities from outer space intruding on earth's air space. If so, those cannot be "rare fleeting phenomena", but actual things, if the tales they tell have any validity. Rest assured, meteorologists and other scientists will continue to study atmospheric phenomena, but that's an entirely different matter from all the "boring" objects that we have been able to identify.

You cannot "prove" a negative, nor do skeptics have any responsibility to do so. The ball is in the other court, and it's up to the UFO believers to provide us some POSITIVE evidence of their claims, preferably unambiguous.
I think you're conflating two different points. My comment wasn't "aliens therefore UAP," it was that unknowns in the Low Information Zone can't just be dismissed as "boring by default." That's a methodological issue, not a leap to extraterrestrials.

Whether the ultimate explanation is atmospheric, instrumental, or something else, the scientific stance is "unknown until better data," not "boring until disproven extraordinary."

And yes, of course positive evidence is needed for extraordinary claims. But insisting everything in the LIZ is already explained *is itself a claim*... and one that also needs evidence.
 
Fast radio bursts, ball lightning, sprites — before they were measured properly, the default assumption was that reports were mistakes or folklore.

I don't know much about the detailed history of the discovery of fast radio bursts or sprites (maybe you do?), but I'm pretty sure the first time a FRB was recorded it was indeed, and correctly, categorized as 'can be a fluke or a mistake as already happened innumerable times, but will check this better'. And in this case, lo, evidence of more FRBs accumulated and they were recognized: exactly the opposite of what happens, say, with the 'evidence' for UFOs, which never gets better instead.

Ditto for sprites, while for ball lightings the jury is still out (which does not bode well for their actual existence, but who knows, very rare transients are, by definition, very rare and hard to catch).

And FRBs, sprites and even ball lightings, being just natural, fast electrical transients start with an enormoulsy higher prior probability to exist than, say, intelligent interstellar visitors, and your analogy does not hold on this point too. Saying "if FRBs, why not UAPs?" has (give or take some 10EXPn ) the same epistemological value as saying "if FRBs, why not leprechauns?"

But insisting everything in the LIZ is already explained *is itself a claim*... and one that also needs evidence.
But we're not saying that. We're saying "on the basis of previous observations, everything in the LIZ is most probably not an alien UAP, unless proved otherwise". Get the evidence, and our stance will change.
 
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That would be circular, but we are not saying that.
We are saying, "we can explain everything that we have good data for."
See https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ufo-acronyms-what-is-the-liz.11742/post-258778 for an explanation of the LIZ.
Thanks, I just looked up that thread. What I struggle with is the first definition, because it reads like a tautology: essentially: UFOs are unidentified because they are unidentified. That makes the LIZ feel more like a relabeling of the problem than an explanation.

Saying "we can explain everything with good data" is fair as a description, but when paired with LIZ it risks implying "what remains must already be nothing interesting." Historically, though, meteorites (and the others I mentioned) sat in that low-information zone for centuries.

That makes me cautious about treating the LIZ as a graveyard of uninteresting noise. How do you decide where to draw the line between "probably nothing" and "worth investigating"?
 
Whether the ultimate explanation is atmospheric, instrumental, or something else, the scientific stance is "unknown until better data," not "boring until disproven extraordinary."
But we do have one suggestive piece of evidence -- as sensors get better, the unknown remains out in that zone where a sensor can detect, but not characterize, what we're looking at. IF there is some unusual phenomenon generating UFO reports, it is remarkable that it stays always out where it can be detected but not categorized or identified... while things that are closer are categorized and identified and are not the extraordinary thing that has been proposed. Either they are very careful to stay where they can be detected but not seen clearly, or they are just what normal known stuff looks like when far enough away. The latter seems overwhelmingly more likely.

Thanks, I just looked up that thread. What I struggle with is the first definition, because it reads like a tautology: essentially: UFOs are unidentified because they are unidentified.
Well yeah, I guess, something that is named "unidentified is so labeled because it is unidentified. No argument there.

But that is not what is being proposed by UFO proponents -- the proposal is that they are both unidentified and unidentifiable as something prosaic -- that if we could only see them better, they'd be space aliens or inter-dimensional beings or demons or whatever.

The argument is whether stuff that is too far away to clearly identify remains unidentified because it is so far away, or whether cool new phenomena are always staying just too far away for us to tell what they are. I think Fr. Ockham had a saying that relates to this...



That makes the LIZ feel more like a relabeling of the problem than an explanation.
I disagree, rather it recognizes that there is a distance, for any sensor system, where you no longer get good data. As used here, it also recognizes that that is where UFOs live.


Saying "we can explain everything with good data" is fair as a description, but when paired with LIZ it risks implying "what remains must already be nothing interesting." Historically, though, meteorites (and the others I mentioned) sat in that low-information zone for centuries.
And did not stay there when the zone was pushed back, though, right?

That makes me cautious about treating the LIZ as a graveyard of uninteresting noise. How do you decide where to draw the line between "probably nothing" and "worth investigating"?
Personally, I'd draw it at -- "If something is out too far, where airplanes and flying saucers cannot be distinguished from one another, it can't be used as evidence of flying saucers. If that distance expands, and nothing inside the new distance where we get good data turns out to be a flying saucer, that is suggestive."
 
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And did not stay there when the zone was pushed back, though, right?
I'll just reply to one of your points here - I'm new, and I don't want to risk running afoul of the "no rambling" guideline by trying to cover everything at once.

About LIZ boundaries getting re-drawn retroactively: labels aren't neutral. Calling something LIZ tends to carry the connotation of "just noise," and that shapes how people treat it. Historically, stigma has slowed down research just as much as lack of instruments.

For me, that tension between skepticism and stigma is one of the trickiest parts of the whole discussion.
 
I'll just reply to one of your points here - I'm new, and I don't want to risk running afoul of the "no rambling" guideline by trying to cover everything at once.

About LIZ boundaries getting re-drawn retroactively: labels aren't neutral. Calling something LIZ tends to carry the connotation of "just noise," and that shapes how people treat it. Historically, stigma has slowed down research just as much as lack of instruments.

For me, that tension between skepticism and stigma is one of the trickiest parts of the whole discussion.
I'd to a significant extent agree. I am just not sure, in this specific case of UFO research, that it really applies. Stigma or no stigma, how do you study something in the LIZ -- that is, definitionally, in a situation where you get insufficient data? In this case, neutral or not, the label is important in that it tries to identify cases where there is not going to be evidence to allow a claimed UFO to be identified as, say, a balloon, whether or not it is a balloon. (Equally, you cannot say it is a spaceship from Venus or something, even if it is one!) It says less "there is nothing to see here," and more "we can't see what's here."

I do have to disagree with the idea that LIZ boundaries get redrawn retroactively. They get redrawn, I'd say, more proactively, as sensors get better. Roughly, more or less, sometimes in fits and starts, the LIZ gets pushed further out over time. And where UFOs live follow gets pushed out, too.

In an extreme case, the cryptid supposedly in Loch Ness, I'd argue that the LIZ as now been pushed out further than the boundaries of the lake -- we can now get decent info from sonar all the way to the bottom, and cameras are good enough that we can photograph pretty well something across the lake (coupled with there are now way more people around/on the lake at any given time*). I'd contend that there is now no part of Loch Ness that is in the LIZ, and we can now be sure that Nessie, sadly, is not there. The LIZ there could be pushed out to where 100% of the area of interest was inside it.

That can't happen with UFOs, as the LIZ extends pretty much to infinity! So there will always be objects in the sky (or in orbit, or in space beyond our orbit) that can be detected but not identified, BECAUSE our tech cannot gather enough information at that distance.

PS -- I am probably among the top 3 long-winded so-and-sos on here, I am probably expanding the boundary of "rambling" faster than new tech can push out the boundary of the LIZ! ^_^

Edit: Fixed a typo, to read "now" instead of "no." WHich could have changed the meaning a bit!
 
I'd to a significant extent agree. I am just not sure, in this specific case of UFO research, that it really applies. Stigma or no stigma, how do you study something in the LIZ -- that is, definitionally, in a situation where you get insufficient data? In this case, neutral or not, the label is important in that it tries to identify cases where there is not going to be evidence to allow a claimed UFO to be identified as, say, a balloon, whether or not it is a balloon. (Equally, you cannot say it is a spaceship from Venus or something, even if it is one!) It says less "there is nothing to see here," and more "we can't see what's here."

I do have to disagree with the idea that LIZ boundaries get redrawn retroactively. They get redrawn, I'd say, more proactively, as sensors get better. Roughly, more or less, sometimes in fits and starts, the LIZ gets pushed further out over time. And where UFOs live follow gets pushed out, too...
Thanks for your thoughtful response. (Poor Nessie, cast forever to the bottom of the LIZ! ) Just to clarify my bias — I'm mainly interested in the UFO topic because I think there could be real physical phenomena at play, though I don't mean aliens. My worry is that if too much gets tossed into the LIZ, we lose the chance to study it. Of course I could be wrong... that's why I'm here, to challenge my own assumptions and logic.
 
think you're conflating two different points. My comment wasn't "aliens therefore UAP," it was that unknowns in the Low Information Zone can't just be dismissed as "boring by default." That's a methodological issue, not a leap to extraterrestrials.
For reasons well-explained by others, there are ALWAYS going to be things in the LIZ. The process most commonly used is to get a better picture (other sources, enhanced processing, etc), then find out there's something commonplace that caused it. If there is still not enough info to be sure what it is, it remains in the LIZ. A better camera comes along, or another means of detection, and we can see those things more clearly ...but there are still others at the very edge of our detection capabilities, therefore more in the LIZ. Lather, rinse, and repeat.

We simply cannot investigate things that we don't have enough information on. It's not a matter of "dismissing" them. It's that we don't have any material to work with at this time, and they'll have to wait until better info comes along. You say "My worry is that if too much gets tossed into the LIZ, we lose the chance to study it." Nothing "gets tossed in the LIZ". If it's already there, it's there; there isn't anything to study, and we can't do anything about that.
 
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For reasons well-explained by others, there are ALWAYS going to be things in the LIZ. The process most commonly used is to get a better picture (other sources, enhanced processing, etc), then find out there's something commonplace that caused it. If there is still not enough info to be sure what it is, it remains in the LIZ. A better camera comes along, or another means of detection, and we can see things more clearly ...but there are still others at the very edge of our detection capabilities, therefore more in the LIZ. Lather, rinse, and repeat.

We simply cannot investigate things that we don't have enough information on. It's not a matter of "dismissing" them. It's that we don't have any material to work with at this time, and they'll have to wait until better info comes along.
GIMBAL would be an example. It's a video of a very distant and blurry heat signature about which not much can be concluded.
 
Thanks for your thoughtful response. (Poor Nessie, cast forever to the bottom of the LIZ! ) Just to clarify my bias — I'm mainly interested in the UFO topic because I think there could be real physical phenomena at play, though I don't mean aliens. My worry is that if too much gets tossed into the LIZ, we lose the chance to study it. Of course I could be wrong... that's why I'm here, to challenge my own assumptions and logic.
(To clarify, I don't think things get "tossed into the LIZ," things are either there or not -- the LIZ is just being beyond the distance where the camera, or other sensor platform, can gather enough information to make identification possible. Things are not placed there by skeptics, or anybody else, they are either that far away , or not. IF that's where they in fact are, saying so is not an attack or an attempt to discredit, it is just pointing out that "this one is too far away to tell what it is, we will never know much about THIS sighting/case.")

The good news there is that IF there is a real, new phenomenon behind UFO reports, it will not forever stay in the LIZ as our sensor capability increases. Meteors did not stay there, and we know a lot about them now! Nessie stayed out there until the LIZ moved out until itwas further than the distance available in Loch Ness -- she ran out of room to exist, and so we could see that she does not (though some fans continue to believe.)

To my mind, UFOs have stayed out beyond an expanding distance to LIZ for long enough that I don't think anything will come of them as the distance continues to grow. They used to be detected closer in, as we can identify stuff where they used to be, they don't show up much there any more. Your mileage may vary, and I am certainly not going to be mad if it turns out I am wrong and there is a "there" there.

But as people in Big UFO continue to use LIZ cases, where the UFO/UAP is out where you can't tell what it is, nor definitively identify something mundane if that's what it is, they need to be called on that. They are not presenting meaningful evidence, they are trying to create the impression that ignorance (sensor platform cannot gather sufficient evidence to identify a thing) is somehow evidence that the thing is new and mysterious.
 
And yes, of course positive evidence is needed for extraordinary claims. But insisting everything in the LIZ is already explained *is itself a claim*... and one that also needs evidence.
That's why don't claim that. We say that everything *outside* the LIZ is explained, and that's why we assume tjat things inside the LIZ would be explainable if we had the data to pull them out of the LIZ.

Saying "we can explain everything with good data" is fair as a description, but when paired with LIZ it risks implying "what remains must already be nothing interesting."
I agree, but I wouldn't call it a risk. Why do you call it that?

Historically, stigma has slowed down research just as much as lack of instruments.
That's a tall claim that I would like to see supported.
(I do see how it applies in the US today.)
 
On re the "LIZ" chat specifically, this is personally why I don't prefer or use the term. No hate on Mick but there's absolutely better terms that reflect this that are professionally used in related fields. For example, "Information Zone" in "LIZ" is a very loose framed understanding of what the term "Information Environment" represents with much more refined and developed understanding on all fronts (scientific, practical, academic).
In fact, it hasn't really taken off as a specific term within the related fields, but "LIZ" even has a direct comparative in-reference. It's called a low-information environment (LIE, great pun contextually). It has applicable experimental framing too (High Information v Low Information Experiments).

Not even that Mick is wrong on any specifics necessarily but it basically patches up the little areas where its use gets debated (and puts far more understanding to it in general).
 
...ball lightning...the default assumption was that reports were mistakes or folklore. But new instruments showed otherwise.
I was of the opinion that there still wasn't any great proof of ball lightning...
and that, indeed, there isn't really even agreement about what would qualify as "ball lightning."

Could you please pop in a link to the video you would consider the very best, most definitive proof...? Thanks.
 
I was of the opinion that there still wasn't any great proof of ball lightning...
and that, indeed, there isn't really even agreement about what would qualify as "ball lightning."

Could you please pop in a link to the video you would consider the very best, most definitive proof...? Thanks.
Not to answer for them but to try and keep this more accurate. Technically, ball lightning as a phenomena is a thing. The specific what's/how is what is debated, so the 'proof' is more towards conclusions not necessarily its existence.
 
I was of the opinion that there still wasn't any great proof of ball lightning...
and that, indeed, there isn't really even agreement about what would qualify as "ball lightning."

Could you please pop in a link to the video you would consider the very best, most definitive proof...? Thanks.
metabunk title search gives you https://www.metabunk.org/threads/when-ball-lightning-isnt-ball-lightning.13205/ where I posted the video that the paper is about. There may be other types of ball lightning, various mechanisms have been demonstrated in lab settings, but it's hard to catch in the wild.
 
On re the "LIZ" chat specifically, this is personally why I don't prefer or use the term. No hate on Mick but there's absolutely better terms that reflect this that are professionally used in related fields. For example, "Information Zone" in "LIZ" is a very loose framed understanding of what the term "Information Environment" represents with much more refined and developed understanding on all fronts (scientific, practical, academic).
Mick uses it not with respect to the analyst, but with respect to the sensor.
The point is that it doesn't matter how good your camera is, or which wavelengths it captures, or what other type of sensor you're using (radar etc.): there is a physical zone where an object will show up as "something" but not be recognizable. It doesn't matter what kit you deploy, you're always going to get that type of sighting, so there's always going to be unidentifiable objects. But understanding that this is a property of the sensor helps understand that "thousands of UFO reports" are to be expected even if there isn't a single genuine UFO among them when dealing with LIZ data.

The POSS study currently being discussed in another thread is a prime example of this, where UFO researchers deliberately picked a data set that precludes identification to support their UFO claims. You don't even have to understand their methodology to understand that they're not going to be able to identify alien artifacts; and that their actual goal is to turn up unidentifiable mystery objects in the LIZ.

A true UFO researcher (like all of us here at Metabunk) is waiting for identification of an extraterrestrial craft/probe/thing, and I for one am growing a bit exasperated at everyone who's hyping some unidentifiable LIZ data as "proof" of anything.
 
Mick uses it not with respect to the analyst, but with respect to the sensor.
The point is that it doesn't matter how good your camera is, or which wavelengths it captures, or what other type of sensor you're using (radar etc.): there is a physical zone where an object will show up as "something" but not be recognizable. It doesn't matter what kit you deploy, you're always going to get that type of sighting, so there's always going to be unidentifiable objects. But understanding that this is a property of the sensor helps understand that "thousands of UFO reports" are to be expected even if there isn't a single genuine UFO among them when dealing with LIZ data.

The POSS study currently being discussed in another thread is a prime example of this, where UFO researchers deliberately picked a data set that precludes identification to support their UFO claims. You don't even have to understand their methodology to understand that they're not going to be able to identify alien artifacts; and that their actual goal is to turn up unidentifiable mystery objects in the LIZ.

A true UFO researcher (like all of us here at Metabunk) is waiting for identification of an extraterrestrial craft/probe/thing, and I for one am growing a bit exasperated at everyone who's hyping some unidentifiable LIZ data as "proof" of anything.
I get that, that's why I ended off with saying I don't necessarily think it's wrong. Just it could be filtered through a more refined understanding that could mitigate some of the debate points (I'm in agreement on your angle for the root discussion).

Information Environment has a few definitions but here's three more common ones (one simpler, two more complex);
"The aggregate of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate, or act on information."

"The information environment is the aggregate of social, cultural, linguistic, psychological, technical, and physical factors that affect how humans and automated systems derive meaning from, act upon, and are impacted by information, including the individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate, or use information"

"
The IE is comprised of and aggregates numerous social, cultural, cognitive, technical, and physical attributes that act upon and impact knowledge, understanding, beliefs, world views, and, ultimately, actions of an individual, group, system, community, or organization. The IE also includes technical systems and their use of data."

This breaks down into a bunch of other things but they're all interrelated. For example, when speaking about sensors - the sensor itself and its capabilities fall under the "systems" (1), "technical, and physical factors" (2); "technical, and physical attributes", "technical systems and use of their data" (3) of the above definitions.
Further, we are speaking about it in the context of the sensor being used to collect and process information. Although getting into the interrelated points how we perceive (human factors/aspects & cog dimension) the output is also part of it.

As an example of one of the prior comparative terms I mentioned, "low-information environment", one used example of this is with the South China Sea. Sensory capabilities of any sort in the region, even mundane civilian things, are quite poor due to a complex set of complicated factors (geography, political issues cause of China, etc). Not that they don't exist either, as would be the case in "LIZ", just surrounding factors impact their ability to make use of certain information more than in other cases (say in a differing objective, like not hunting for aliens we've never identified characteristics of - hope you get a chuckle there).
 
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A true UFO researcher (like all of us here at Metabunk) is waiting for identification of an extraterrestrial craft/probe/thing, and I for one am growing a bit exasperated at everyone who's hyping some unidentifiable LIZ data as "proof" of anything.
To be pedandic, I think we're merely looking for *classification*, not *identification*. (I think recent computer vision researchers are trying to replace the term "classification" with "recognition" - my understanding is that the D/C/I distinction came from the military sphere, long before computer vision was even a thing, and feel no need to change that terminology just because the task is being done by an AI. (And of course, it's a spectrum - between "its a plane" and "it's maverick" there's "it's a "it's a twinjet Sukhoi".))
 
To me, this shows a page that wants me to prove my credentials. I am among the credential-less unwashed, alas. Anybody know of a more accessible site for this?
Tiny tip if you run into this issue ever. Check sites like researchgate, they platform a lot of research without the paywalls.

As to IP and copyright stuff, that's more of a personal decision. I would note with these though you're not hurting the author they're usually screwed over in these scenarios (eg they'll be paywalled without their perm and the money entirely goes to some institution).
https://www.researchgate.net/public...nd_Spectral_Characteristics_of_Ball_Lightning
 
For me, that tension between skepticism and stigma is one of the trickiest parts of the whole discussion.

We're all a bit off topic at this point, so what the hell?

That's an interesting point. I would argue, from the skeptical point of view, in the UFO world, much of the stigma is self generated. I'll use one example so I don't ramble too much.

Two of the bigger names in the UFO world are George Knapp and Jeremy Corbel. Corbel regularly releases supposed secret videos from the military, they appear at many UFO conferences and more recently Michael Brown, the leaker of the Immaculate Constellation program files, was on their podcast/ YouTube program. They present a lot of UFO evidence. Evidence we skeptics are supposed to take seriously.

Both of them also defend the incoherent and un-evidenced ramblings of Bod Lazar. Lazar's stories about him working on "sport model" flying saucers at Area 51, his multiple degrees from schools he never attended and claims of keeping the highly unstable element 115 in his kitchen are sketchy at best. When one delves into them, they are ludicrous. Yes, his first interviews in the late '80s made Knapp national news, but instead of moving on, 30 years later Corbel produced a whole documentary trying to keep Lazar and his stories going and defending all the BS Lazar trolled out over the years, because it was about UFOs.

For me, this creates a "stigma". When someone says "did you see the evidence Corbel posted today?", my first thought is, he thinks Bob Lazar has element 115 in his kitchen, why would I take anything he presents seriously?

This repeats in UFOlogy continuously. Every fuzzy light in the sky is an alien space ship. Even when things like the Chilean Air force UFO are identified as an airliner, many in the UFO world insist it isn't. A supposed crashed UFO under a mesa that no one has seen is reported to have superconducting ceramics on Secrets of Skinwalker Ranch. The Buga ball in Colombia. Batman balloons. Christmas shows reflecting off the clouds. It's this constant barrage of nonsense trolled out as "evidence" of UFOs and aliens that creates the stigma.
 
We're all a bit off topic at this point, so what the hell?

That's an interesting point. I would argue, from the skeptical point of view, in the UFO world, much of the stigma is self generated. I'll use one example so I don't ramble too much.

Two of the bigger names in the UFO world are George Knapp and Jeremy Corbel. Corbel regularly releases supposed secret videos from the military, they appear at many UFO conferences and more recently Michael Brown, the leaker of the Immaculate Constellation program files, was on their podcast/ YouTube program. They present a lot of UFO evidence. Evidence we skeptics are supposed to take seriously...
Oh yeah, I'll admit up front, I hold my nose at anyone who throws credence to Bob Lazar. Stanton Friedman famously tracked down his school records and showed he was at best a C student in high school, so of course the MIT/CalTech claims were bogus. And then there's the supposed home stash of "stable" element 115…I just can't.

But I think that cuts both ways. Yes, Corbell and others create stigma by platforming characters like Lazar. But skeptics also sometimes use that stigma as a broad brush as if all UAP questions can be dismissed just because the loudest voices are kooks. Knapp's a bit more complicated case in my view, since he's covered a wide range of stories, but even there the Lazar baggage muddies the waters.

The reality is - any exotic topic is going to act like flypaper for the fringe. That doesn't mean everyone's claims are crap by proxy... in fact, many people never come forward precisely because the stigma is amplified by those louder, less credible figures. And that, to me, is where stigma becomes its own kind of filter.
 
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