1. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Metabunk 2018-10-24 10-35-53.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45969100

    The list of people there seems very much like a QAnon hit-list. All of the above are frequently demonized as being part of some kind of New World Order satanic pedophile deep-state cult. Other packages are being discovered, and there's sure to be several developments as the events are investigated.

    Of course the conspiracy theorists will say this is a "false flag", but it seems most likely to me that this is the result of their conspiracy theories in the same way as the shooting at Comet Ping-Pong was the result of the Pizzagate conspiracy theories.

    It's not limited to the QAnon or Alex Jones crowd, of course. Fox News and other media have painted the targets as being part of a deep state conspiracy for a while.

    Of course this (like EVERY major news event) will be portrayed as being a "False Flag". Although this seems a bit different, more mainstream - as Abby Martin (formerly a fairly extreme conspiracy theorist) noted:

    Metabunk 2018-10-24 11-28-33.
    Source: https://twitter.com/AbbyMartin/status/1055152297301368832 [deleted]


    I think it's very likely the sender will get caught and convicted. Of course that won't quell the theories. It's going to be an interesting one to watch.
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2018
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  2. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Abby Martin deleted her tweet, saying:
    Metabunk 2018-10-24 11-31-54.
     
  3. deirdre

    deirdre Moderator Staff Member

    From what I'm reading in comments and from Rush Limbaugh
    seems the fact they didn't go off is suspicious. but other than Soros, none of the packages made it past the mailroom/post office. and Soro's wasn't opened either.
     
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  4. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    The bigger people and organizations have X-Ray machines. other mailrooms would have a procedure to detect things like this:

    https://bgs.vermont.gov/sites/bgs/files/graphics/government-services/Mail-Handling-Protocol.pdf
    The pic above seems to match some of these.

    Of course, the suspicious mind would say that the packages were designed to be caught. We'll see.
     
  5. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    The Brennan bomb has what looks like an ISIS flag, but not exactly the same.
    Metabunk 2018-10-24 12-31-54.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  6. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    why does the package not look like it was postmarked?
     
  7. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    That's one of the warning signs listed above. Presumably that would mean it was handed in at the front desk or direct to the mail room somehow.

    I think more likely here is that it was simply not cancelled (postmarked) as it was an irregular shaped package that needed manual cancelling.
     
  8. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    Gotcha. I missed the recognition points you posted above. I have received odd shaped packages in the past. In fact, some were very similar to what this pipe bomb package would be shaped like (white labs yeast vials rubber banded together in a similar envelope, a bottle of homemade hot sauce, a shaker of bbq rub, etc). They have always been cancelled. That was the first thing that stood out to me when i saw pictures of the package.
     
  9. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Yeah, me to. Post marks give good clues (place and time of mailing). There does not seem to be anything.
    Metabunk 2018-10-24 13-34-21.
     
  10. deirdre

    deirdre Moderator Staff Member

  11. Hevach

    Hevach Senior Member

    The bombs are pretty amateurish. Like the builder saw a picture of a pipe bomb but didn't want to get on any government lists by looking up real construction details. PVC pipe doesn't make for a good pipe bomb, especially capped on the end with clear plastic (I've seen packing tape mentioned but it doesn't look quite like tape). The pipe and end caps of a pipe bomb provide both the pressure to direct and the shrapnel to do damage.

    It's very hard to use a bomb as a weapon. Even well made ones go off early or not at all more often than when they reach their target. This is why groups like ISIS and Al Qaida rely on experienced bomb builders, often with military or demolition background.

    Even a poorly made pile of explosive is still a deadly weapon, but a poorly made bomb means three things, in my eyes:
    -Less likely to go off at the right time
    -Less dangerous if it does
    -The builder probably made other mistakes that will make them easier to find
     
  12. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    i don't think the intention was for these things to go off. in fact, i think they were primarily constructed to look scary rather than to explode as deadly as possible at the right time.
     
  13. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    that would explain why the stamps weren't cancelled, but why put the stamps on there in the first place? also, courier seems like the easiest way to get caught.
     
  14. deirdre

    deirdre Moderator Staff Member

    well he did spell Brennan and Florida wrong. and you can buy a postal scale to see how much postage wouldn't be so obvious. Not sure this guy is the sharpest knife in the drawer.
     
  15. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    Isn't any theory about the motivation behind this essentially a conspiracy theory at this point? Could be a right winger, could be a left winger, could be the Russians, could be isis...who knows?
     
  16. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    Maybe. Or, maybe those things are intentional to throw investigators off. The one thing that makes me agree with you is the amount of sloppily used sticky stuff. There's going to be a lot of stuff that got stuck to that sticky stuff to analyze. A smart person likely would have avoided that.
     
  17. deirdre

    deirdre Moderator Staff Member

    unless he has a rare exotic hairy pet, I doubt fibers will help lead to him.

    it takes two or more people conspiring to make a conspiracy. Any theory about a single bomber working alone, is just a theory.
     
  18. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    Semantics aside, there are a lot of possibilities at this point. You could go with the obvious theory of it is a right winger going after trump haters. But, there are other plausible theories as well.

    As far as the fibers, they alone likely would not lead to a suspect, but could be a piece of the puzzle used along with other pieces of evidence to track down a suspect.
     
  19. deirdre

    deirdre Moderator Staff Member

    As a right winger myself, I'm going to have to say "not really" as far as other plausible theories. But I don't think you [we] need to take it so personally. People of all political parties snap from time to time.

    Obama is campaigning against the current President (which is not proper protocol for an ex President), Hillary is.. well.. Hillary. Soros could be conspiracy related, since he supposedly is financing this migrant caravan. But either way, the liberal press is as likely to blame as Fox News if you ask me. How they choose to cover these issues is just as anger evoking as anything Qanon, Fox or Rush Limbaugh says. and since I don't follow any of those sources, I'm going to go out on a limb and say "maybe more so". The only reason I know Soros supposedly paid for this caravan is I read it in the New York Times. Both sides of the aisle are just as guilty when it comes to pissing people off.

    Your second statement I would agree with.
     
  20. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    I am probably one of the hardest people to classify in terms of right vs left. There are things I tend to agree more with the left about, and there are things I tend to agree more with the right about. Equally, there are things that I despise about both sides. Really, there are more things that I collectively despise about the two sides than I admire. Having said all of that, I wouldn't take it personally if it was either a right wing or left wing plot. I would take it a little personally if it was a Russian plot, but I honestly think that is the least likely option. But, I have learned not to jump to conclusions. I prefer to wait for the evidence to arise. So far, the only evidence that the public knows of is some bombs were sent to a bunch of lefties. Bombs that didn't explode and are so crude they almost seem to be a joke.
     
  21. Khan Desi

    Khan Desi New Member

    • Informative Informative x 3
  22. qed

    qed Senior Member

    No. Most of your examples are still plain-old conspiracies, and plain-old conspiracies happen all the time!
    And even if two or more people conspired to perform these attacks, that would still make this attack a plain-old conspiracy. Not a conspiracy theory. Even if Isis did it!

    To distinguish, if it turns out to be a Democratic false flag, then that would turn out to be a conspiracy theory (that turns out to be true).

    I know of no conspiracy theory that turned out to be true.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2018
    • Agree Agree x 2
  23. betamonk

    betamonk Member


    it seems like you are debating the semantics of whether or not it is a theory. at this point in time, possibilities being discussed are indeed theories. deirdre was correct above in pointing out that these theories may or may not be conspiracies.
     
  24. qed

    qed Senior Member

    @betamonk

    But, given that this is a debunking site, do you see the difference between (1) the Democratic Party is behind a false flag operation, and (2) a nut and his sister-in-law did it?

    (1) is a conspiracy theory, while (2) is a plain-old conspiracy.

    Given that plain-old conspiracies happen all the time, while I know of no conspiracy theory that has turned out to be true, I can scientifically expect that it will turn out that the conspiracy theory (1) is false, while I should not be surprised if the plain-old conspiracy (2) turns out to be the case.

    Further, I can safely predict that what ever the truth turns out to be, it will be a plain-old conspiracy of some kind, and not a conspiracy theory that turned out to be true.

    Do you see the fundamental difference between (1) and (2)?

    [... as to semantics, you brought this up ...]
     
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  25. betamonk

    betamonk Member


    fair points. some people may be saying the democratic party was behind this. i am not. it's possible some republican nut and his sister in law did it. it's also possible some democratic nut and his sister in law did it. i would put the probabilities of those two scenarios about the same. my point is that any thoughts about who is behind this is conjecture at this point.
     
  26. qed

    qed Senior Member

    I agree completely.
     
  27. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Targets so far:
    Metabunk 2018-10-25 10-50-05.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  28. qed

    qed Senior Member

    Why is Rep. Maxine Waters twice?
     
  29. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Because she was sent two (one was found in Maryland, one in LA). As was Biden.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  30. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    Metabunk 2018-10-25 11-31-41.

    The bombs really don't appear to be functional. There's a timer with a small button battery, and then some wire. It does not seem like there would be enough power from the clock to ignite the black powder. The various "how to" videos on youtube all have an additional power source (usually a 9V battery).
     
  31. NoParty

    NoParty Senior Member

    Because we're right before an unusually contentious and heated mid-term, I'm weighing the possibility of the
    (horribly, horribly overused, usually 100% wrong) concept of the false flag as a bit more plausible than usual.

    But, still, Occam's razor-style, it seems less likely (10%? 15%?) than the more obvious/straightforward
    explanation that a deranged person or two is striking out at a roster of perceived "enemies" of DJT.

    So, I guess what I'm asking both of you, is why are you seeing those two possibilities as roughly equally plausible?
     
  32. betamonk

    betamonk Member

    i'm putting some weight on my belief that somebody wanted a scary looking bomb that could work in theory, but obviously would not hurt anybody combined with an increase in hoaxes of this sort over the last few years. for what it's worth, it's not very difficult to make a bomb that will actually explode if you want to.

    on the other hand, the recipient list makes a nice hit list for a nut job right winger that wants to send a message to liberals.

    i wouldn't assign any actual numeric probability towards it being left wing or right wing based, because i don't really have enough info to do that. but, both are real possibilities, and i don't personally see any reason to say one is more likely than the other. i would not be one bit surprised if it's a left wing or a right wing based attack. and, of course, there are other possibilities.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2018
  33. qed

    qed Senior Member

    @NoParty I missed that part. I was agreeing with the part I highlighted. I don't agree they are equal. Sorry for the confusion. A Democrat sending bombs to this list, is a false flag. Very unlikely.
     
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  34. Hevach

    Hevach Senior Member

    Or an ignition source that requires less energy like a blasting cap. So either amateurish like I though (even worse since they were not only missing the most dangerous parts of a pipe bomb but missing half of the bomb part too), or possibly that they weren't actually meant to go off as others have.

    Worth mentioning that as far as the law is concerned, it doesn't matter - a good bomb, bad bomb, or fake is all still terrorism.
     
  35. NoParty

    NoParty Senior Member

    Thanks for the clarification.
    Now I'm wondering: Is someone in the FBI (etc.) keeping track of how many
    terrorist events of this type turn out to be false flags?

    My gut instinct is that it's probably a pretty low percentage...but I always prefer real data to guesses....
     
  36. Mick West

    Mick West Administrator Staff Member

    It could well be one person who did this entire operation just by themselves. How to you determine the plausibility of their mindset?

    I guess you could look at the people how have sent bombs before. Most of them, as I recall, seem to have wanted to hurt people. Are there many instances of "false flag" bombings in recent US history?

    I think it's very likely that the person will get caught.
     
  37. NoParty

    NoParty Senior Member

    I was thinking of past cases where motive was pretty clear. I'm trying to recall if
    I can think of a case where it became known that someone mailing such packages
    was trying to implicate someone else. Surely it's happened...but I'm wondering if
    FBI believes it happens in .02% of cases...or 7.5% of cases...or if they even
    keep track of such a category, since motives can be complex or delusional...

    p.s. Yes...I think the sheer number of packages makes it likely they'll catch the perp, and fairly soon...
     
  38. deirdre

    deirdre Moderator Staff Member

    yea but doesn't a 'false flag' have to be 'the government did it' or at least a large organization? Not just Joe Schmoe sent fake ricin to Susan Collins to implicate his liberal neighbor whose dog keeps pooping on his lawn.
     
  39. Mechanik

    Mechanik New Member

    The basic definition of False Flag is a military operation and that’s the way I look at it, too. If the government puts a Southwest logo on a chemtrail spewing 737, that might be considered a false flag and would definitely qualify if the US government put an Aeroflot logo on the plane. Joe Schmoe just provided his neighbor’s return address as a red herring to implicate his neighbor instead of him. Actually, that one probably qualifies as “SWATting”.

    In this case, and without more information, it’s speculation between either of the above, or any of a number of other things, like an incompetent nut job or someone who wants you to think that a republican is trying to kill democrats just before an election.

    I’m leaning towards the latter, by the way, but I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the possibilities discussed in this thread.
     
  40. Mechanik

    Mechanik New Member

    I just re-read this thread and I'm appalled that I just endorsed, however qualified, Alex Jones & Rush Limbaugh's positions! I need to go take a shower and wash off the shame.
     
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