Was the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza hit by an Israeli airstrike or PIJ rocket?

[Null]

Yes, I want.

I was trying to figure out what this blob was

And the only thing that seemed plausible was it's this little village called Palmahim...

But if that's it, then a HUGE piece of Ashdod, nearly all of it, is being occluded from the view from Bat Yam

 

[Null]

Even so, look at what our line of sight has to be to the "rocket," if you believe the "rocket" originates from the gaza strip. It has to pass unobstructured over the water, through the coast of Ashdod, and continue on over land and pass directly through Ashkelon. You have to believe that's the region of relative darkness to the left of the lights on that video.

 

[Null]

Honestly I don't know anymore, there could very well be some walls and large cranes and ships down at the port that block the light. Let me know what you think.

 

[Null]

By the way, that's a very conservative line I'm drawing in the respect that it actually touches the Gaza border fence. No one is going to be firing rockets from there. They'll at least be on the outskirts of the city.

 

[Null]

Still lacks clarity and visual support.

Because you are interpreting a distant light in the longer camera 1 video as the first ground explosion? Please give us a time cued embedded video, and also give us a still frame with an arrow indicating the light/explosion.

Source: https://youtu.be/yyNLvL_8SeY?si=6ZwJSbTzXPSfRLM_&t=99

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Even so, look at what our line of sight has to be to the "rocket," if you believe the "rocket" originates from the gaza strip. It has to pass unobstructured over the water, through the coast of Ashdod, and continue on over land and pass directly through Ashkelon. You have to believe that's the region of relative darkness to the left of the lights from which the object rises object rises. View attachment 63741View attachment 63742

Source: https://youtu.be/yyNLvL_8SeY?si=6ZwJSbTzXPSfRLM_&t=99

You are not giving the still frame with the arrow indicating the explosion.

 

[Null]

You are not giving the still frame with the arrow indicating the explosion.

It's circled on the video i just linked. you prefer arrows to circles?

 

[Null]

It is faint, i admit. I had to turn up my contrast, but it is a distinct flash of light. watch it a few times

 

[Null]

Also I'm trying to understand what's at stake. Presumably you're not disputing the location of the first ground explosion on the bat yam video. And you can plainly see the object rises from the left of that, so your launch site is not the origin of the object. wasn't that the issue?

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

I'm now aware the the WSJ analysis differs from the my speculative scenario. I'll give that some thought.

I can see some possible problems with your proposed line of sight. I'm waiting for your still frame with the arrows indicating what you interpret as an explosion.

But I must have some discipline and go to bed. Tomorrow I won't want to get up. Talk about inertia.

 

[Null]

I'm now aware the the WSJ analysis differs from the my speculative scenario. I'll give that some thought.

I can see some possible problems with your proposed line of sight. I'm waiting for your still frame with the arrows indicating what you interpret as an explosion.

But I must have some discipline and go to bed. Tomorrow I won't want to get up. Talk about inertia.

a still frame isn't going to convince you. it's in the region circled by al jazeera, in the very short time that it appears circled. you need to watch it in time to see the faint flash.

 

[Null]

But yeah, please let me know all your objections. good night.

 

[FatPhil]

Are you sure you know what something like that sounds like

Definitely not. We're all just evaluating possibilities and modifying probabilities as evidence comes in. Well, the rational ones are. I'm not so sure about the people outside these four walls.

 

[FatPhil]

Are you sure you know what something like that sounds like, falling out of the sky? I'd listen to this before making a decision like that.


Inert bombs: concrete cast in the shape of a bomb I believe. Dropped from a preserved B-24.

What the fucking fuck?
That's the sound of an aircraft from within an aircraft.
How is that relevant?

And no, I hadn't watched any of the vids before my previous response. And now I've only watched one of them, assuming you had put your best argument first. You're going to have to do a really good job to persuade me to watch any of the others, given how mind-bogglingly irrelevent your best one was.

 

[Khan Desi]

NY Times released their analysis today, concluding that the rocket most likely is not related to the explosion at the hospital:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-israel-hamas-video.html

I know some members in this thread have also speculated that it wasn't related, so this may provide more evidence to that theory (I think their analysis is based primarily on camera angles indicating it was launched from within Israel).

I've been too busy the last week to dig in as much as I wanted to, but from my relatively-trained eye on the trajectory of the rocket, it always felt unlikely to be related to the hospital explosion due to the seemingly impossibly short "free fall" time and also the disconnect between the amount of disintegration apparent in the video and the speed/size of the explosion on impact.

 

[Khan Desi]

What the fucking fuck?
That's the sound of an aircraft from within an aircraft.
How is that relevant?

And no, I hadn't watched any of the vids before my previous response. And now I've only watched one of them, assuming you had put your best argument first. You're going to have to do a really good job to persuade me to watch any of the others, given how mind-bogglingly irrelevent your best one was.

This is where I get to say "Chill, FatPhil"

 

[FatPhil]

[technically not important - I'm responding to the "wow" moderation on my prior post

For reference, there's *absolutely* no bad beef between ZW and I. That wasn't some ancient flame war re-igniting or anything. If you check the up-moderations of ZW's post *in this very thread* you'll see that I'm throwing them in his direction at least as much as anyone else. I just want to get closer to the truth, and I appreciate all of the contributions and analyses that have been part of that.

(I have relatives in the region, perhaps this is a more personal matter to me than to others on the forum.)

 

[FatPhil]

This is where I get to say "Chill, FatPhil"

As you have the right to do.

Other than that, how was the content of the argument?

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

What the fucking fuck?
That's the sound of an aircraft from within an aircraft.
How is that relevant?

And no, I hadn't watched any of the vids before my previous response. And now I've only watched one of them, assuming you had put your best argument first. You're going to have to do a really good job to persuade me to watch any of the others, given how mind-bogglingly irrelevent your best one was.

Because of inertia, the bombs continue on in a trajectory that "follows" the powered flight of the plane. So the drone of Witchcraft's engines is loud. However, the sound of the bombs can also clearly be heard. A completely different sound. A combined whistling and hissing sound, unlike the sound effect used in 1940's movies.
From the video description:

If you can, turn up the audio and listen to the sound of the bombs as they rush in just before they hit the ground. It is awesome. The only thing missing was the boom noise at the end.

The rest of the examples are similar. Each has a bit different quality. The stories of veterans in WWI trenches being able to distinguish different types of artillery shells by their sound are based in fact.

Btw, I've used this video to teach the basics of Galilean relativity/inertial frames of reference. I've also pointed FE Believers to this video to try to convince them that inertia is real, not made up. Predictably, they never responded. This one was first simply because I was familiar with it. The next ones, I searched for. That simple.

Btw 2: My Japanese father in-law was a 12 year old boy during the August 1945 B-29 bombing mission that destroyed his small town a few days after Hiroshima. He described the sound of falling bombs. If the tone changed you were okay, if the tone didn't change... it was heading straight in toward you.

 

[Null]

hey whattaya know

"But a detailed visual analysis by The New York Times concludes that the video clip — taken from an Al Jazeera television camera livestreaming on the night of Oct. 17 — shows something else. The missile seen in the video is most likely not what caused the explosion at the hospital. It actually detonated in the sky roughly two miles away, The Times found, and is an unrelated aspect of the fighting that unfolded over the Israeli-Gaza border that night."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-israel-hamas-video.html

 

[Null]

"But The Times concluded that the missile in the video was never near the hospital. IT WAS LAUNCHED FROM ISRAEL, not Gaza, and appears to have exploded above the Israeli-Gaza border, at least two miles away from the hospital."

 

[deirdre]

hey whattaya know

"But a detailed visual analysis by The New York Times concludes that the video clip — taken from an Al Jazeera television camera livestreaming on the night of Oct. 17 — shows something else. The missile seen in the video is most likely not what caused the explosion at the hospital. It actually detonated in the sky roughly two miles away, The Times found, and is an unrelated aspect of the fighting that unfolded over the Israeli-Gaza border that night."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-israel-hamas-video.html

so then where's the rocket that hit the hospital? we see all the other rockets... was the hospital rocket invisible?

 

[Null]

Oh look, there's an iron dome battery right there.

 

[Khan Desi]

so then where's the rocket that hit the hospital? we see all the other rockets... was the hospital rocket invisible?

At night, you're only going to see a rocket when it's in one of it's boost phases. That's when it's actively burning propellant and you'll probably see the glow or trail.

The rest of the flight is unpowered and the rocket has a ballistic trajectory (it may have fin control for additional pointing), and it won't be emitting any other light source. So totally invisible in the night time.

For most of these rockets, I'm guessing they have only a single boost phase at launch, or perhaps a few stages, but all immediately during the ascent phase only. So that's what you're seeing in the videos.

Now, let's say you had a pretty wide angle video of the whole area during the events. At some point, the rocket that hit the hospital should be visible. So it's either a. the rocket originated outside of the available videos and did all of its boost beforehand, or b. the rocket IS in the video, but we don't know which one because it hit during an unpowered phase of flight.

 

[Null]

At night, you're only going to see a rocket when it's in one of it's boost phases. That's when it's actively burning propellant and you'll probably see the glow or trail.

The rest of the flight is unpowered and the rocket has a ballistic trajectory (it may have fin control for additional pointing), and it won't be emitting any other light source. So totally invisible in the night time.

For most of these rockets, I'm guessing they have only a single boost phase at launch, or perhaps a few stages, but all immediately during the ascent phase only. So that's what you're seeing in the videos.

Now, let's say you had a pretty wide angle video of the whole area during the events. At some point, the rocket that hit the hospital should be visible. So it's either a. the rocket originated outside of the available videos and did all of its boost beforehand, or b. the rocket IS in the video, but we don't know which one because it hit during an unpowered phase of flight.

Orrrrrrrr, it's not a rocket, but a bomb dropped by the air force that's currently bombing Gaza into rubble? Am I going insane?

 

[Khan Desi]

Orrrrrrrr, it's not a rocket, but a bomb dropped by the air force that's currently bombing Gaza into rubble? Am I going insane?

Yes, you're right, this is also a possibility. In which case you would never see much in any video, unless the fighter jet maybe used some gratuitous after burning for effect.

 

[Null]

Yes, you're right, this is also a possibility. In which case you would never see much in any video, unless the fighter jet maybe used some gratuitous after burning for effect.

there were 4 airstrikes in the area of the hospital in the previous 5 minutes, unless you think it's possible *all* of them were hamas rockets that misfired. also did you watch this al jazeera segment? at the time code, that sure looks like circling aircraft in the upper right that AJ is mistakenly calling iron dome interceptors. not in position to drop a bomb from the northeast, but proof there were IAF planes over gaza at that minute
Source: https://youtu.be/yyNLvL_8SeY?si=rujdf5G8idmOS4gb&t=110

 

[deirdre]

Orrrrrrrr, it's not a rocket, but a bomb dropped by the air force that's currently bombing Gaza into rubble? Am I going insane?

that seems like a pretty small bomb hole.

 

[John J.]

I don't have the software (or maybe the smarts) to slow down and/ or enlarge the OP video, but I think the footage from approx. 6 to 10 seconds might deserve a look from those here who can.

The IDF posted these videos of the blast:

Source: https://twitter.com/i/status/1714403025136017784

when things blow up dont the pieces all go in random directions too?

Maybe -and this is conjecture- an initial malfunction caused the still-largely intact rocket to tumble, or at least radically change attitude (the direction in which it is pointing): something which altered the direction of some thrust of the main motor, or maybe (wholly hypothetically) a breech of the combustion chamber causing some thrust perpendicular to the line of flight
(I don't know if the damn things even have combustion chambers).

With the rocket now (very briefly) spinning or travelling in an unintended direction, there then appears to be a catastrophic failure, and the resultant explosion (or at least uncontrolled combustion), and inertia, does the rest.



Rockets clearly can unintentionally change direction, including turns of 180 degrees (and more):
These examples are space rockets, which are very different beasts, but I think the principles are similar,
from YouTube user Go To Space, AMAZING Space Rocket Explosions & Failures,
approx. 3:00 to 3:47

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI-f_M9aEck&t=180s


...and approx. 5:53 to 7:00

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI-f_M9aEck&t=353s


From the same poster, Rocket Launch Failures and Explosions Compilation (2016-1942), approx. 2:49 to 3:32

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z99pGVDZhaY&t=2m48s


The Sun (UK tabloid newspaper) on YouTube, Russian missile fails and 'boomerangs back at Russian troops'

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ

 

[deirdre]

Maybe -and this is conjecture- an initial malfunction caused the still-largely intact rocket to tumble, or at least radically change attitude (the direction in which it is pointing): something which altered the direction of some thrust of the main motor, or maybe (wholly hypothetically) a breech of the combustion chamber causing some thrust perpendicular to the line of flight
(I don't know if the damn things even have combustion chambers).

our intelligence apparently gave a briefing yesterday (havent looked for a video of it yet so i gotta trust this reporting as much as we trust reporting now adays)

Article:

Within seconds of its launch, officials said the "fluctuating intensity" of the rocket's plume suggested an unstable motor combustion, which was followed by one object hitting the ground, and was soon followed by a second.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-intelligence-catastrophic-motor-failure-rocket-launch-palestinian-militants-deadly-hospital-blast-gaza/

(not that i really know what you mean by 'combustion chamber' but remembered i just read about combustion so thought this might give you a clue? can you have combustion without a combustion chamber?

 

[John J.]

also did you watch this al jazeera segment?

Perhaps bear in mind the label on the video,
"Al Jazeera is funded in whole or in part by the Qatari government."

Wikipedia, "Qatar and state-sponsored terrorism",
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_and_state-sponsored_terrorism

Qatar has been accused of supporting Hamas, the Palestinian group designated as a terrorist organization by a number of countries.[6] Qatar denies these allegations, stating that it does not support Hamas' political position, and that its policy is to help facilitate constructive engagement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.[7]

Qatar- like most other nations, of course- has "issues". Workers from south and south-east Asia have, in the recent past, been grossly exploited. Homosexuality is a capital offence. Al Jazeera has nothing to say on these issues.

 

[deirdre]

Perhaps bear in mind the label on the video,

in fairness his al jazeera vids arent making any of the claims Null is making.

 

[Null]

Perhaps bear in mind the label on the video,
"Al Jazeera is funded in whole or in part by the Qatari government."

Wikipedia, "Qatar and state-sponsored terrorism",
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar_and_state-sponsored_terrorism

Qatar has been accused of supporting Hamas, the Palestinian group designated as a terrorist organization by a number of countries.[6] Qatar denies these allegations, stating that it does not support Hamas' political position, and that its policy is to help facilitate constructive engagement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.[7]

Qatar- like most other nations, of course- has "issues". Workers from south and south-east Asia have, in the recent past, been grossly exploited. Homosexuality is a capital offence. Al Jazeera has nothing to say on these issues.

so make a claim. theyre lying about *what* exactly? did they deceptively edit the video? if so, how? also dont start the media bias debate, we can go back and forth all day. you can easily get fired from your job, esp in journalism, in the US if you express support for palestine and criticism of israel as seen in the past few days.

 

[John J.]

can you have combustion without a combustion chamber?

I don't really know with "real" rockets (there are probably people here who do).
A firework is a rocket; it burns solid fuel at a gradual rate (though it seems fast to us!) so I guess more practical rockets could do the same (i.e. without a combustion chamber).

 

[deirdre]

I don't really know with "real" rockets (there are probably people here who do).
A firework is a rocket; it burns solid fuel at a gradual rate (though it seems fast to us!) so I guess more practical rockets could do the same (i.e. without a combustion chamber).

it's too bad all the fragments of whatever landed mysteriously disappeared. if there were any the experts would probably be able to pin down the model.

 

[Null]

yeah im sure there are lots of forensic explosive experts with big well equipped labs in this prison that no one can get in or out of, thats being bombed to rubble and starved of food, water, electricity, and medical supplies.

 

[deirdre]

yeah im sure there are lots of forensic explosive experts with big well equipped labs in this prison that no one can get in or out of, is being bombed to rubble and is being starved of food and water.

obviously i mean outside experts. i dont trust Hamas as far as i can throw them.

 

[Null]

obviously i mean outside experts. i dont trust Hamas as far as i can throw them.

do you want them to snail mail the fragments?

 

[Null]

or just send pictures, and have them be discounted as being from a different explosion when they come back as israeli

 

[Null]

to actually know things like that if you immediately disbelieve the authorities in gaza, you need independent qualified people on the ground. even if people like that wanted to be there, israel wouldn't let them in. also it's well established that israel targets journalists. likely for precisely this reason