Was the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza hit by an Israeli airstrike or PIJ rocket?

FatPhil said:
I hear something under powered flight rather than something merely in freefall before the explosion.
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Are you sure you know what something like that sounds like, falling out of the sky? I'd listen to this before making a decision like that.


Inert bombs: concrete cast in the shape of a bomb I believe. Dropped from a preserved B-24.

And this:



Various artillery:



Source: https://youtube.com/shorts/T5ZONTV_Eg4?si=xWUvV5od_JDCZS3P



And actual Qassam-type artillery rocket:
 
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Scaramanga said:
But it would have had to not simply 'change course' but completely reverse course. We were told that the path of the rocket went pretty much straight over the hospital. Now if you imagine the whole thing geometrically ( darn....I wish I could do a diagram of it )....if any moving object that is passing over an object passes a line vertically above that object then by definition it has flown past it at that point. When the rocket malfunctions it is waaaaay past that vertical point. The rocket would have to literally turn around and go back the way it came to hit the hospital.
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My speculation, already expressed above, was that this crude artillery rocket fractured in the first few seconds after launch. Please see my argument in post 57: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/wa...strike-or-pij-rocket.13217/page-2#post-304190

The thing we see in the sky is the rear section. At least two more pieces continued on, due to inertia, and are unseen. To be as clear as possible, the thing we see in the sky is not the section that hit the hospital parking lot. The section that hit and caused the fireball was unseen on this video and was following its own path.

After the rocket fractured, the rear fragment was nothing more than a water pipe, open at both ends. At some point the solid fuel is going to be uncontained and might continue to fizzle out from either end of the pipe. There are too many unknowns to make a decision about what exactly was happening to that tail fragment. Included in those unknowns is our own lack of expert knowledge.
 
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Z.W. Wolf said:
My speculation, already expressed above, was that this crude artillery rocket fractured in the first few seconds after launch. Please see my argument in post 57: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/wa...strike-or-pij-rocket.13217/page-2#post-304190

The thing we see in the sky is the rear section. At least two more pieces continued on, due to inertia, and are unseen. To be as clear as possible, the thing we see in the sky is not the section that hit the hospital parking lot. The section that hit and caused the fireball was unseen on this video and was following its own path.

After the rocket fractured, the rear fragment was nothing more than a water pipe, open at both ends. At some point the solid fuel is going to be uncontained and might continue to fizzle out from either end of the pipe. There are too many unknowns to make a decision about what exactly was happening to that tail fragment. Included in those unknowns is our own lack of expert knowledge.
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so you think the thing that hit the hospital was in free fall starting a few seconds after launch? like how many seconds?
 
According to the video cited in post 57, the boost phase is 1 to 5 seconds. Given the amount of unburned rocket fuel, It makes sense that the fracture would happen very early in the boost phase.

So, reasonable speculation: One second... maybe. Too many unknowns to be sure.

Boost phase of Qassam-type artillery rockets.
 
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Z.W. Wolf said:
According to the video cited in post 57, the boost phase is 1 to 5 seconds. Given the amount of unburned rocket fuel, It makes sense that the fracture would happen very early in the boost phase.

So, reasonable speculation: One second... maybe. Too many unknowns to be sure.
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Then under free fall it got to point B from *lower* than point A

Screen Shot 2023-10-24 at 9.38.54 PM.png
 
Z.W. Wolf said:
What are you saying? Trajectory. Not free fall. Good grief.
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Free fall meaning no forces except gravity acting on it, but with an initial velocity. That distance looks reasonable to you? Those points are 40 miles away from the camera, in case you forgot.
 
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Null said:
Then under free fall it got to point B from *lower* than point A

Screen Shot 2023-10-24 at 9.38.54 PM.png
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you are seeing things at B. there is nothing there. lights are flashing on that 'horizon' throughout the entire video.

and "A" is not where it blew up. not even close. (well your actual letter "A" is close,,but not your arrow.
 
deirdre said:
you are seeing things at B. there is nothing there. lights are flashing on that 'horizon' throughout the entire video.

and "A" is not where it blew up. not even close.
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if you watch the al jazeera segment youll see B is the location of the second ground explosion. Yes i know that's not where A blew up.
 
If for some reason you refuse to accept the flash of light at B -- occuring at the exact second when the hospital was hit, and in the relative location of the hospital -- is actually the explosion at the hospital, then just use the first ground explosion. the object has to go west of that. that's only slightly less ridiculous
 
Let's bring some reason back to this thread.

The launch site is here: 3.2 miles from the impact point in the driveway.
Launch Site Kropped.png

Show us on Google Earth where you think the launch site was.
 
Z.W. Wolf said:
Let's bring some reason back to this thread.

The launch site is here: 3.2 miles from the impact point in the driveway.
Launch Site Kropped.png

Show us on Google Earth where you think the launch site was.
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so you think the launch site is to the RIGHT of the hospital, from the perspective of the Bat Yam camera? Is that what you see on that video?
 
Null said:
so you think the launch site is to the RIGHT of the hospital, from the perspective of the Bat Yam camera? Is that what you see on that video?
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your aljezeeera analysis video (the al jezeera live feed i now know was camera 3..so directly west of the hospital) says it came from gaza. but you think their analysis is wrong too?

1698205146431.png
 
deirdre said:
was what is the premise? isreal launched the rocket ..it blew itself up midair and then fell to the west hitting the hospital courtyard?
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My best guess is it's an iron dome interceptor fired from southeast of the border fence due to the barrage that actually did come from where ZW just indicated. and it is completely unrelated to the hospital explosion.
 
deirdre said:
but we dont see any other rockets.
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yes, deirdre, it was an israeli airstrike. like the 4 other airstrikes in the area of the hospital in the 5 minutes immediately before these events. like israel does after they repeatedly warn people to evacuate a location as they did with the hospital.
 
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Scaramanga said:
The rocket would have to literally turn around and go back the way it came to hit the hospital.
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At which point it becomes indistinguishable from a rocket that came from the other direction in the first place, creating the impression that it came from Israel.

What does the impact crater and crater-adjacent ground marks tell us about the direction the missile/rocket fragment came from when it hit the ground?
 
I'll indulge you if you'll slow down and present your evidence with clarity and with visuals. So far your presentation is so muddled that it seems like nonsense. Let's use the WSJ designations of cameras 1, 2, 3 and 4.



Camera 1 is just south of Tel Aviv in Bat Yam, Israel.
Screen Shot 2023-10-24 at 9.38.54 PM.png
What do you think Letter B represents?





Please identify these city lights, labeled with the red arrows. Camera 1.png
 
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Great question about the lights. They are some portions of Ashdod and Ashkelon. How much of those cities lights we are seeing I have been trying to figure out. It's complicated by the fact there is a nature preserve between the camera and parts of ashdod that is elevated a bit. Honestly, i would have thought we would see all of Ashdod, given the heigh of the camera and the concentration of large apartment buildings in Ashdod, but there's a detail in the picture that makes me unsure. I can go into it if you want.
 
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Null said:
B is the location of the hospital. you can see the second ground explosion there, 7 seconds after the rocket explodes, if you watch the al jazeera segment. the WSJ thing doesn't show it
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Why have you decided that B indicates the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital?
 
Null said:
Great question about the lights. They are some portions of Ashdod and Ashkelon. How much of those cities lights we are seeing I have been trying to figure out. It's complicated by the fact there is a nature preserve between the camera and parts of ashdod that is elevated a bit. Honestly, i would have thought we would see all of Ashdod, given the heigh of the camera and the concentration of large apartment buildings in Ashdod, but there's a detail in the picture that makes me unsure. I can go into it if you want.
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Yes, I want.
 
Z.W. Wolf said:
I'll indulge you if you'll slow down. Let's use the WSJ designations of cameras 1, 2, 3 and 4.



Camera 1 is just south of Tel Aviv in Bat Yam, Israel.
Screen Shot 2023-10-24 at 9.38.54 PM.png
What do you think Letter B represents?





Please identify these city lights, labeled with the red arrows. Camera 1.png
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That makes more sense. If you go just by camera 3 ( as shown in the OP ) it is not apparent that the path of the rocket curves a lot. But once you have seen the video where the path does curve a lot, you then start to see that same curvature in cam 3 and can see that the rocket changes course.
 
Null said:
Only for the reason I just said
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Still lacks clarity and visual support.

Because you are interpreting a distant light in the longer camera 1 video as the first ground explosion? Please give us a time cued embedded video, and also give us a still frame with an arrow indicating the light/explosion.
 
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