War.gov/UFO - Department of War Releases UAP Files - 2026 Release 1

[JMartJr]

Things", as far as I can see, are NOT developing, concerning UFOs. There is no more compelling evidence of their existence now than there was back when Jules Verne was writing science fiction.

On the other hand, one could argue that the belief system around UFOs is developing in a coupe of ways. The "respectabillity" may be increasing as members of Congress help promote it and Internet algorithms make people who Want To Believe see what appears to be a larger proportion of folks online believing, too. And the substance of the belief is evolving, or perhaps has done so, as "fantasy UFOlogy" competes with "sci-fi UFOlogy" and the things that are believed by believers alters accordingly...

 

[boringrealit]

On the other hand, one could argue that the belief system around UFOs is developing in a coupe of ways. The "respectabillity" may be increasing as members of Congress help promote it and Internet algorithms make people who Want To Believe see what appears to be a larger proportion of folks online believing, too. And the substance of the belief is evolving, or perhaps has done so, as "fantasy UFOlogy" competes with "sci-fi UFOlogy" and the things that are believed by believers alters accordingly...

This is what I meant. It is getting more popular and accepted.

I think it is evolving too. There is a more spiritual flavour these days. More mystic and less "nuts and bolts." Even cross-breeding with MAGA-Christianity into spacefaring demons in flying saucers. Plus they have to fit in the Skinwalkers and poltergeists.

 

[FatPhil]

On the other hand, one could argue that the belief system around UFOs is developing in a coupe of ways. The "respectabillity" may be increasing as members of Congress help promote it and Internet algorithms make people who Want To Believe see what appears to be a larger proportion of folks online believing, too. And the substance of the belief is evolving, or perhaps has done so, as "fantasy UFOlogy" competes with "sci-fi UFOlogy" and the things that are believed by believers alters accordingly...

But maybe receiving respect from people who do not have the intellectual faculties to evaluate what is deserving of respect doesn't actually bring actual "respectability"?

 

[JMartJr]

But maybe receiving respect from people who do not have the intellectual faculties to evaluate what is deserving of respect doesn't actually bring actual "respectability"?

Sadly, we may be becoming the outliers here with the fringe beliefs -- still right, but on the fringe of current thinking.

(I don't think it's really THAT bad yet. I could see it getting that bad, the way things are going.)

 

[MapperGuy]

This is what I meant. It is getting more popular and accepted.

I think it is evolving too. There is a more spiritual flavour these days. More mystic and less "nuts and bolts." Even cross-breeding with MAGA-Christianity into spacefaring demons in flying saucers. Plus they have to fit in the Skinwalkers and poltergeists.

The fundamental problem is that the WhistleBlowers promised us ALIENS, dead ones for sure and maybe LIVE ALIENS!
And they promised us Crashed UFO's, lots of them, huge ones hidden under buildings!

Where are they?

We have lots of fuzzy dots in the sky, but the BIG REVELATION still has not arrived. Eventually people are going to get tired of waiting.

 

[Ann K]

Sadly, we may be becoming the outliers here with the fringe beliefs -- still right, but on the fringe of current thinking.

(I don't think it's really THAT bad yet. I could see it getting that bad, the way things are going.)

No, I don't think so. There are a good many people that I personally know who may not have the scientific know-how to debunk the tales, but think they're too silly to take seriously. The fact that the UFO crowd are vocal doesn't mean they outnumber the non-believers. It simply isn't considered a respectable belief for thinking individuals.

Come to think of it, I can only think of one person I know who falls in the class of true believers, and it's not always easy to tell when she is being serious...

 

[Andreas]

No, I don't think so. There are a good many people that I personally know who may not have the scientific know-how to debunk the tales, but think they're too silly to take seriously. The fact that the UFO crowd are vocal doesn't mean they outnumber the non-believers. It simply isn't considered a respectable belief for thinking individuals.

Come to think of it, I can only think of one person I know who falls in the class of true believers, and it's not always easy to tell when she is being serious...

I think you're absolutely right. There's always been a relatively small group of people screaming about aliens, but most people simply don't care. And even most of the "believers" don't seem to care that much. Many people find the UAP circus kind of fun to read about, like watching a sci-fi movie, and it's perfect clickbait for the media.
But I wouldn't say that's the same thing as a majority of people being in the UFO crowd's camp.

 

[JMartJr]

No, I don't think so. There are a good many people that I personally know who may not have the scientific know-how to debunk the tales, but think they're too silly to take seriously. The fact that the UFO crowd are vocal doesn't mean they outnumber the non-believers. It simply isn't considered a respectable belief for thinking individuals.

Come to think of it, I can only think of one person I know who falls in the class of true believers, and it's not always easy to tell when she is being serious...

Knowing you to an extent, based on your posts here, I am open to the possibility that your circle of friends may be smarter and better informed than a random sample of the population! ^_^

(In reference to Ann
K's post quoted above)I think you're absolutely right. There's always been a relatively small group of people screaming about aliens, but most people simply don't care. And even most of the "believers" don't seem to care that much. Many people find the UAP circus kind of fun to read about, like watching a sci-fi movie, and it's perfect clickbait for the media.
But I wouldn't say that's the same thing as a majority of people being in the UFO crowd's camp.

I hope you are both right, but note (emphases added by yours truly):

From 2025 --

Close to half of all Americans think that the U.S. government is hiding information about the existence of unidentified flying objects, an exclusive NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll found.

The poll, which surveyed 521 Republicans, 559 Democrats, 349 independents and 18 "other" voters, found that 44% of Americans believe that the government is concealing UFO information, while 28% disagree and another 28% are unsure.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls/ufos-uap-americans-govt-evidence-poll/

A 2024 article --

30% of Americans believe UFOs, or unidentified flying objects, are probably alien ships or life forms; 45% believe they have some other explanation. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe UFOs are probably alien in origin (34% vs. 26%).

https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/53486-half-of-americans-believe-aliens-have-visited-earth

An older poll (2021) from Gallup --

Four in 10 Americans now think some UFOs that people have spotted have been alien spacecraft visiting Earth from other planets or galaxies. This is up from a third saying so two years ago. Half, however, believe all such sightings can be explained by human activity or natural phenomena, while an additional 9% are unsure.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/350096/americans-believe-ufos.aspx

Things believed by 30-45% of the population are not really "fringe beliefs." And I doubt that recent events are driving those numbers down! Though I'd agree that it is likely that most of the people believing these things do so casually, and do not think much about them as they go about their lives.

 

[NorCal Dave]

Things believed by 30-45% of the population are not really "fringe beliefs." And I doubt that recent events are driving those numbers down! Though I'd agree that it is likely that most of the people believing these things do so casually, and do not think much about them as they go about their lives.

Now hold on. First, as you say, many of these may be casual beliefs. If prompted to think about it, they may conclude, as what I would consider the more respectable Gallup poll says: "some UFOs...have been alien". It's not saying 40% in fact think UFOs are aliens, rather 40% think some might be when asked about it.

As for the News Nation poll, the UFO question seemed to be just a random one thrown into a very long poll. Respondents were asked a myriad of questions, mostly political in nature like Trump's performance in the first 100 days, tariffs, inflation, how they viewed Musk or Hegseth, Canadian Statehood(?), buying or annexing Greenland, war in Ukraine and then tossed in near the end, was "Do you believe the government is hiding information about the existence of UFOs?" Kind of vaguely worded, and more about the government hiding information, rather than absolute belief in aliens.

Honestly, the whole thing seemed like News Nation feeling out what people want to hear about or how they should cover things like Greenland or Hegseth. But, as they are the home of Ross Coulthart and their UFO reporting makes The Daily Mail look journalisticly responsible, they latched on to this 1 question from a long poll to create a headline. Complete poll here:

https://nexstartv-my.sharepoint.com...WZClAf49xvr3HfiYiSZLBjsf0y0?rtime=7HoK8UvC3kg

 

[boringrealit]

The fundamental problem is that the WhistleBlowers promised us ALIENS, dead ones for sure and maybe LIVE ALIENS!
And they promised us Crashed UFO's, lots of them, huge ones hidden under buildings!

Where are they?

We have lots of fuzzy dots in the sky, but the BIG REVELATION still has not arrived. Eventually people are going to get tired of waiting.

I'm not so sure. If there ever is a time to blame the government it would be now, with the Epstein-Cover Up and all Trump-nonsense. The distrust is at an alltime high. When WBers say "USG has crafts and bodies hidden away, it is a cover up!" people might interpret government's reluctance to release documents and material as part of the cover up. The videos that are being released does more harm than anything, because people rightfully distrust the governments so much that it just looks suspicious. It looks just like the Epstein Files and people will think that they are hiding the serious stuff here too.

So I think you are right, people will be tired of waiting, but not tired of the WBers but tired of the government's unfulfilled promises. Not just UFOs and Epstein, but everything from JFK, 911, Jan 6 to MKultra is being promised and then denied. As I said before, it is so badly handled that it looks almost intentional...

 

[John J.]

...but tired of the government's unfulfilled promises.

The relevant US government agencies (NASA, AARO, DoD/ DoW) haven't made any promises about revealing evidence of extraterrestrial life.
This is probably because they haven't got any.

They have made it clear they don't possess any material evidence (post #163, Origins of AAWSAP thread), and

NASA stated: "One of NASA's key priorities is the search for life elsewhere in the universe, but so far, NASA has not found any credible evidence of extraterrestrial life and there is no evidence that UAPs are extraterrestrial.

The current administration promised to make files about UAP- things that appear to be in the sky but which aren't definitively identified- public, and have done so. Nothing in the May 2026 releases is unambiguously (or perhaps even vaguely likely to be) evidence of ETI, but nobody in the know claimed it would be.

 

[Ann K]

Knowing you to an extent, based on your posts here, I am open to the possibility that your circle of friends may be smarter and better informed than a random sample of the population! ^_^

My friends are largely artists ...who, although skilled in that discipline, are not necessarily scientists, nor do they hang around boring others by chatting about the latest advances in physics. I'd imagine your circle of kite flyers includes a wide spectrum of opinions as well.

 

[Andreas]

Things believed by 30-45% of the population are not really "fringe beliefs." And I doubt that recent events are driving those numbers down! Though I'd agree that it is likely that most of the people believing these things do so casually, and do not think much about them as they go about their lives.

That's the thing, though. Except for a small group of people, belief (or possible belief) in alien visitations doesn't affect their lives. They're not afraid, and frankly, they're not even that curious about it. They're just thinking: "Yeah, I'm sure the government knows more than they're telling us, and space aliens visiting Earth seems like a reasonable idea."

But these people have real issues to worry about, and researching UFO reports isn't one of them. It's important to remember that many people know very little about space, astronomy, and the universe. A friend of mine was once asked by a taxi driver, "How do satellites manage to avoid the stars when traveling across the sky?" The driver was otherwise quite a clever man, but he just didn't give a rat's ass about space.

And for someone with that little interest in astronomy, it's easy to assume that interstellar travel isn't such a big issue. This is where scientists and government officials should step in. Sadly, however, it's the sensational claims that get the attention, making it appear as though it's a widely accepted belief among scientists and governments that extraterrestrials are visiting our planet. But empty vessels make the most noise, and no tabloid newspaper wants to publish an astronomer explaining why distance and time are such formidable obstacles. And debunkers are the boring people who are always ruining the fun.

It's no wonder that quite a few people would answer yes when asked whether aliens are visiting Earth. They read about it in some article, they haven't really thought about it, but spontaneously they say yes. That does not mean, however, that 40 percent of the population are potential paranormal investigators prepared to move into the annex at Skinwalker Ranch.

 

[Todd Feinman]

It's no wonder that quite a few people would answer yes when asked whether aliens are visiting Earth. They read about it in some article, they haven't really thought about it, but spontaneously they say yes. That does not mean, however, that 40 percent of the population are potential paranormal investigators prepared to move into the annex at Skinwalker Ranch.

I'd have to agree. People are quite good at compartmentalizing ideas and living with cognitive dissonance, and many are just trying to get through the week and suffering from serious stress. I think it is similar to how people think about nuclear weapons. There's nothing they can do about it, and it doesn't affect everyday life, for the vast number of people. This is actually a good thing, I've come to believe.
If unambiguous photographic evidence and data were to come to light, that would be convincing to many here, how do you think the public would react?

 

[John J.]

If unambiguous photographic evidence and data were to come to light, that would be convincing to many here, how do you think the public would react?

I think that would depend on the the nature of the evidence and the circumstances in which it arose.
If we're talking about isolated visual proof of a UFO being an ETI craft, in the absence of communication or serious physical impacts/ "retrievals":
It would be a historic event of immense scientific importance. There would be blanket media coverage, lots of people giving their opinions.
At least initially of great interest to many (less so amongst people in poorer nations), perhaps excitement in some, concern or even fear in others.
Depending on the circumstances perhaps a bit of partying by a few; at the fringes of society maybe exploitation by cults/ "survivalist" groups.
Probable angling for budget allocations by defense concerns, hopefully an increase in funding for some university science departments etc.

But the vast majority of us will still have to work to support ourselves and loved ones. Proof of ETI won't put food on the table.
Major religions will be largely unaffected, though perhaps with some doctrinal discussion behind closed doors. Evidence of ETI in itself won't settle any political disagreements, rivalry between nations or solve any injustices.

 

[JMartJr]

Given that many of us in society already believe (however strongly or weakly) that aliens are/may be flying around, I doubt it would have a huge impact. Those of us on the more skeptical side would be excited because we didn't expect to see THAT happen! UFO True Believers would be ecstatic (and probably insufferably smug for a bit! ^_^) Most folks would be interested for a few weeks, then move on with their lives.

UNLESS -- If they come in phasers blasting, or hurling big huge rocks from the asteroid belt at our military installations and industrial centers, that would be a different situation.

 

[Ann K]

If we're talking about isolated visual proof of a UFO being an ETI craft, in the absence of communication or serious physical impacts/ "retrievals":
It would be a historic event of immense scientific importance. There would be blanket media coverage, lots of people giving their opinions.
At least initially of great interest to many (less so amongst people in poorer nations), perhaps excitement in some, concern or even fear in others.

I think it's more likely that those who already believe will continue to believe, and the rest will give it a passing glance and groan "Oh, not again!" It seems like not a day goes by without someone claiming proof, or as their headlines would say, "PROOF!!!" The UFOlogy crowds have cried wolf so many times that any new disclosure would be disregarded by many. And if the explanation proved to be highly technical (which seems likely) then most viewers would soon find themselves out of their depth and give up.

 

[Todd Feinman]

There is a lot of diversity in the UFO group; many think the others or some others are charlatans, then there are those deceived by the charlatans, scared people with no knowledge of the subject, folks who think every light they see is an alien, etc. They drive many of us crazy, but have to be handled with compassion. A similar spectrum exists among scientists, as we know.
I'm not really sure how folks would handle a disclosure statement from the government. If you are a "believer" or have had your own experiences, you'd also be concerned with a change in the amount or kind of contact.

 

[Ann K]

A similar spectrum exists among scientists, as we know.

Who better to call out their mistakes and misconceptions than other scientists?

In the case of warring factions of UFOlogists, though, it's the blind leading the blind. They adhere to a discipline with no physical objects to study, yet they pretend that the things they discuss are actual physical objects.

 

[Todd Feinman]

Who better to call out their mistakes and misconceptions than other scientists?

Agreed! And you'd be a lousy scientist if you didn't try.

 

[Todd Feinman]

At this point we are hearing so many different stories being told by many folks who should / would know better. Some are claiming it is a real phenomenon but the stories of crashed craft and biological specimens or bio-engineered surrogates are untrue. Some say we have a whole lot of crashed or appropriated objects and reverse engineering is going on. There are stories of alien-human hybrids, and other stuff. This wreck is spewing multicolored smoke. At this point we have to get to the bottom of it; it's a national security issue and a circus, regardless of what you believe about UFOs.

 

[boringrealit]

I think that would depend on the the nature of the evidence and the circumstances in which it arose.
If we're talking about isolated visual proof of a UFO being an ETI craft, in the absence of communication or serious physical impacts/ "retrievals":
It would be a historic event of immense scientific importance. There would be blanket media coverage, lots of people giving their opinions.
At least initially of great interest to many (less so amongst people in poorer nations), perhaps excitement in some, concern or even fear in others.
Depending on the circumstances perhaps a bit of partying by a few; at the fringes of society maybe exploitation by cults/ "survivalist" groups.
Probable angling for budget allocations by defense concerns, hopefully an increase in funding for some university science departments etc.

But the vast majority of us will still have to work to support ourselves and loved ones. Proof of ETI won't put food on the table.
Major religions will be largely unaffected, though perhaps with some doctrinal discussion behind closed doors. Evidence of ETI in itself won't settle any political disagreements, rivalry between nations or solve any injustices.

I think it would be an enormous change. Just look at how much more harmless things through history has changed everything. Some monk nailed his opinion on the church door and everyone lost their shit. It is probably the best parallel to an UFO disclosure. People got radicalized just by realizing that they've been lied to (which I assume many already understood, but was afraid to say).

In this case there is a lot that is different too, since we already have a lot of narratives in place (maybe by design). Even if the revelation is just that "aliens are here and flying around in saucers", people will still jump to the conclusion that USG and other countries has kept it secret. Which leads to the idea that the whole history since the 40s has been fake, and so on. Add to that all sorts of much darker ideas about children being intentionally abused to develop psi-powers or getting trafficked, as Barber claims, or the recent talk about it being demons and that USG has a pact/deal with them, and maybe that some groups, classes, or ethnicities are actually alien hybrids, and so on and so on.

Luther's harmless opinions resulted in the downfall of the Christian unity in the west and religious wars and so on, and that was just about the question about authority, this is more like as if he had proven that the Pope was the devil, or something else that destroyed the whole foundation for their faith and worldview.

Of course, it might be that we are too damaged and hypnotized by social media to realize what is important or not, so that society has a different resistance to shocks like that compared to back then.

 

[jdog]

I think it would be an enormous change. Just look at how much more harmless things through history has changed everything. Some monk nailed his opinion on the church door and everyone lost their shit. It is probably the best parallel to an UFO disclosure. People got radicalized just by realizing that they've been lied to (which I assume many already understood, but was afraid to say).

In this case there is a lot that is different too, since we already have a lot of narratives in place (maybe by design). Even if the revelation is just that "aliens are here and flying around in saucers", people will still jump to the conclusion that USG and other countries has kept it secret. Which leads to the idea that the whole history since the 40s has been fake, and so on. Add to that all sorts of much darker ideas about children being intentionally abused to develop psi-powers or getting trafficked, as Barber claims, or the recent talk about it being demons and that USG has a pact/deal with them, and maybe that some groups, classes, or ethnicities are actually alien hybrids, and so on and so on.

Luther's harmless opinions resulted in the downfall of the Christian unity in the west and religious wars and so on, and that was just about the question about authority, this is more like as if he had proven that the Pope was the devil, or something else that destroyed the whole foundation for their faith and worldview.

Of course, it might be that we are too damaged and hypnotized by social media to realize what is important or not, so that society has a different resistance to shocks like that compared to back then.

Eh, the reaction to Martin Luther didn't come out of nowhere; corruption had been growing in the Catholic Church for decades and there was widespread resentment over clerical abuses, selling of offices, selling of indulgences for sins, etc.

I don't think "there are aliens" would be equivalent. You'd need to tap into some lingering popular resentment, something being imposed on people, like "there's been unlimited free energy, food and healthcare and the government's been withholding it."

Or "space vampires have been abducting people for decades and the government's covering it up."

Which, you know, resembles the whole Epstein controversy.