Trump Shot at Rally

[Z.W. Wolf]

I hate to say it, but I have to mention autism. He's been described as very intelligent, high grades. Wore the same clothes everyday. Shy. Socially awkward.

wiki

Crooks received an associate degree in engineering science from Community College of Allegheny County two months before the shooting.

But was underemployed. Apparently he was a kitchen worker in a nursing home.

If that's the case it takes away grandiosity and replaces it with...

Monotropism
- a person's tendency to focus their attention on a small number of interests at any time, tending to miss things outside of this attention tunnel.

The fixation on weapons may be a "special interest."

It still leaves depression and suicidal gesture. Still not a political act.

 

[Greene]

Has there been more information that came out regarding his interests? If not, we don't necessarily know that he was fixated on weapons/firearms.

 

[deirdre]

But was underemployed. Apparently he was a kitchen worker in a nursing home.

depending on what his area of interest was, 2 months is not a long time to find a job. Even for people with short hair and social talking skills.

 

[Chacra]

Another video posted to Reddit. A different view of a different sniper team than the other video I posted. It appears to me they identify a threat but are unable to act before the first shots are fired. They were described as "the southern sniper team" in the Reddit post

 

[Alexandria Nick]

Multiple sources reported a local police officer attempted to reach the roof immediately before the shooting began. I'd wager that the sniper team saw this activity, but was unable to get into action without positively identifying their target because of this.

 

[FatPhil]

It's possible he registered as a Republican to help a weaker candidate win a primary in order to help a Democrat in the general election.

There have been several pushes in that direction in recent years. He's young enough to have been influenced by this, for example:

Some Democrats voting in GOP primaries to block Trump picks
...
An Associated Press analysis of early voting records from data firm L2 found that more than 37,000 people who voted in Georgia's Democratic primary two years ago cast ballots in last week's Republican primary, an unusually high number of so-called crossover voters. Even taking into account the limited sample of early votes, the data reveal that crossover voters were consequential in defeating Trump's hand-picked candidates for secretary of state and, to a lesser extent, governor.

-- https://apnews.com/article/2022-mid...016-congress-df4fa72d2d4a1e4d9344d61c0a3d4b9e

 

[FatPhil]

If you remove references to Trump, that reads almost like the stereotype story-that-writes-itself after any mass shooting. It MAY be that the rally was a target of opportunity, happening near his home, for some guy who would otherwise have opened fire on other people somewhere else. All motives remain on the table until we know more.

C.f. "death by cop".

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/he...oks-suspected-trump-rally-shooter-2024-07-14/

Two years ago, Crooks graduated from the local high school, where he showed no particular interest in politics, according to one classmate who asked not to be identified. Crooks' interests centered on building computers and playing games, the classmate said in an interview.
"He was super smart. That's what really kind of threw me off was, this was, like, a really, really smart kid, like he excelled," the classmate said. "Nothing crazy ever came up in any conversation."

Jim Knapp, who retired from his job as the school counselor at Bethel Park High School in 2022, said Crooks had always been "quiet as a churchmouse," "respectful" and kept to himself, although he did have a few friends.
He rarely came across Crooks because "he wasn't a needy type kid," Knapp said. Crooks was content to occasionally eat lunch by himself in the school cafeteria, said Knapp, who would engage such students to see if they wanted company.
"Kids weren't calling him names, kids weren't bullying him," Knapp said.
Knapp said he never knew Crooks to be political in any way, even as other kids would sometimes wear Trump or Biden attire. He added that he couldn't recall Crooks ever being disciplined in school.
"Anybody could snap, anybody could have issues," he said. "Something triggered that young man and drove him to drive up to Butler yesterday and do what he did."

I've been looking at anything that's inward looking, solitary, depressive, ruminating, perhaps obsessional.

This new description doesn't seem consistent with Schizoid Personality Disorder. Afraid to say this is looking more and more like autism with depression.

What may hold is Major Depressive Disorder with Psychotic Features or Delusional Disorder. Either one could have a developed recently. But autism is kind of taking the lead.

Autistic monotropism is not the same as Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder, but it looks superficially like that. But OCD is also over-expressed in autism.

Paranoia and narcissism don't seem to be involved at all.

This guy wasn't an Oswald type political crackpot handing out leaflets on the street. Maybe they'll find some kind of handwritten manifesto, but I really doubt it. It just doesn't seem like there's any "political" motive. Just a personal disability.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

The feeling I'm getting is: This was a kid with autism. Maybe always tended toward depression. The weapons and "hunting clothes" thing was an autistic "special interest."

But recently the depression got out of hand. Maybe new medication was involved and suicidal ideation and dysphoria really became a problem. Dysphoria is an active, restless kind of depression. Can be really awful.

Besides the obvious things like Prozac or Valium, even Prednisone for allergies can cause dysphoria and suicidal ideation. A quiet downward spiral.

Or maybe not Autistic Spectrum Disorder. He may have been a quiet, depressed. intelligent kid. Or ditto, but also with autistic traits. But whatever... depression, dysphoria and suicidal ideation seem like the real suspects. Quiet desperation.

Just a feeling. I might be completely off.

 

[FatPhil]

Multiple sources reported a local police officer attempted to reach the roof immediately before the shooting began. I'd wager that the sniper team saw this activity, but was unable to get into action without positively identifying their target because of this.

Shouldn't the protocol be to get Trump off the podium before attempting to deal with the threat? It seems like there was plenty of time to do that.

Source: https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1812653888975098150

 

[Mendel]

Shouldn't the protocol be to get Trump off the podium before attempting to deal with the threat? It seems like there was plenty of time to do that.

The question is, what were the lines of communication, and how was it organized? There can be a lot of delays in a) confirming information, b) getting it where it needs to be, and c) taking a course of action that doesn't make the situation worse.
There's going to be an inquest, and the people involved are going to speak for themselves.

Can you tell from this footage that the person on the roof has a gun? Would you want to be responsible for interrupting a Trump speech for a non-existent threat?

 

[Dan Burt]

The question is, what were the lines of communication, and how was it organized? There can be a lot of delays in a) confirming information, b) getting it where it needs to be, and c) taking a course of action that doesn't make the situation worse.
There's going to be an inquest, and the people involved are going to speak for themselves.

Can you tell from this footage that the person on the roof has a gun? Would you want to be responsible for interrupting a Trump speech for a non-existent threat?

Watched a podcast Sunday evening involving 2 Navy Seal snipers, an Army Ranger qualified sniper...etc. They were explaining how when multiple agencies are involved in security (Secret Service, local SWAT, local Police Department), they most likely aren't on the same communication frequency. So what they do is they embed one member of each department into each other department, now you have every command, question, intelligence report...etc, going through multiple people which takes a little bit more time than someone just saying what's happening to the entire group. Example: The cop on the ladder sees the shooter, he climbs down and tells his boss, his boss tells the embedded Secret Service Agent, the Secret Service Agent tells his boss who tells embedded local Swat guy what's going on. Swat guy tells his guys, Secret Service boss then tells embedded local cop and embedded Swat guy how to handle situation. Then they have to communicate that out to their bosses so everyone is on the same page. It's a mess.

Would have been much easier for the cop on the ladder to just take out the shooter. But that's just the opinion of Navy Seal, Ranger qualified snipers that have free fire clearance in war zones.

 

[Mendel]

Thank you, that's pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking.

Example: The cop on the ladder sees the shooter, he climbs down and tells his boss

If I was a cop on a ladder identifying a person aiming a gun at the president, the first thing I'd do is fire a shot in the air because that'd get the POTUS cleared off the stage immediately.
It's only if I wasn't certain what I'm looking at (maybe a photographer?) that I'd hesitate to pull the alarm like that.

If he had a gun but wasn't taking aim, I might want to not alert him that he's been discovered. It's difficult.

 

[Duke]

Another video posted to Reddit. A different view of a different sniper team than the other video I posted. It appears to me they identify a threat but are unable to act before the first shots are fired. They were described as "the southern sniper team" in the Reddit post

I had the same impression. I'd bet the sniper team in the video were alerted to the guy via their comm net and was looking for him. They finally spotted him, possible from his muzzle flash, then opened fire.

I'd be shocked if the rules of engagement (RoE) under which the Secret Service operates do not allow them to shoot first if they believe there is a legitimate threat. Who actually makes that call real time would be interesting to know. Do the teams have autonomy to make the decision to fire, or must they wait on an order to fire?

 

[jarlrmai]

Thank you, that's pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking.

If I was a cop on a ladder identifying a person aiming a gun at the president, the first thing I'd do is fire a shot in the air because that'd get the POTUS cleared off the stage immediately.
It's only if I wasn't certain what I'm looking at (maybe a photographer?) that I'd hesitate to pull the alarm like that.

If he had a gun but wasn't taking aim, I might want to not alert him that he's been discovered. It's difficult.

That might get you shot by the secret service sniper

 

[Ann K]

It's possible he registered as a Republican to help a weaker candidate win a primary in order to help a Democrat in the general election. It's also possible that became 'redpilled' and swung far to the right over the past few years.

There's been a report in the Philadelphia Inquirer from a classmate who said he was always extremely conservative in his political views.

Max R. Smith recalled taking an American history course with Crooks as a sophomore. He did recall Crooks making political statements — but they shed no light on his actions Saturday.

"He definitely was conservative," he said. "It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate."

Smith recalled a mock debate in which their history professor posed government policy questions and asked students to stand on one side of the classroom or the other to signal their support or opposition for a given proposal.

"The majority of the class were on the liberal side, but Tom, no matter what, always stood his ground on the conservative side," Smith said. "That's still the picture I have of him. Just standing alone on one side while the rest of the class was on the other."

https://www.inquirer.com/news/penns...ooks-trump-shooting-bethel-park-20240714.html

 

[Domzh]

I rarely go conspiricist...but I must say, the way Trump was shaking his fist
looked like he was already in "Let's milk this!" mode.
The Manchurian Candidate came to mind immediately.
To be clear, I have no idea who was behind this...but DJT's actions make me wonder.

im not surprised at all. Trump is an absolute media expert who was extremely aware his whole adult life about how he is portrayed in the media. you cant compare him to a normal person. his first thought was probably "am I alive" and second one "how do I look on video, get up quick, be strong".

 

[Domzh]

guys maybe we should stop speculating so much about the shooters motives and assumed mental disorders.

you didnt knew him, you have no information, you are acting like these ufo guys spinning whole movie plots based on a pixelated video.

this guy was in his twenties. being a bit socially awkward, having good grades and wearing the same cloths often sounds like 90% of all reasonable intelligent male teenagers to me. im pretty sure some with the same traits even end up creating video games about skateboarders instead of shooting a politician...

speculation is useful to some extend when its based on factual evidence.

 

[taurusclover21]

Here's a suggestion, don't hold a political rally outdoors with the potential target standing alone on an elevated podium wearing a red cap.

 

[Domzh]

Here's a suggestion, don't hold a political rally outdoors with the potential target standing alone on an elevated podium wearing a red cap.

red, orange, doesnt matter

 

[RTM]

There's been a report in the Philadelphia Inquirer from a classmate who said he was always extremely conservative in his political views.

Max R. Smith recalled taking an American history course with Crooks as a sophomore. He did recall Crooks making political statements — but they shed no light on his actions Saturday.

"He definitely was conservative," he said. "It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate."

Smith recalled a mock debate in which their history professor posed government policy questions and asked students to stand on one side of the classroom or the other to signal their support or opposition for a given proposal.

"The majority of the class were on the liberal side, but Tom, no matter what, always stood his ground on the conservative side," Smith said. "That's still the picture I have of him. Just standing alone on one side while the rest of the class was on the other."

https://www.inquirer.com/news/penns...ooks-trump-shooting-bethel-park-20240714.html

I think we should be careful about trying to assign the shooter into a neatly defined box that enforces the current tribalism that is promoted too much by the cable punditry and by the loudest voices on social media. Unfortunately these type of events turn into a point scoring exercise against the other team, I would bet a fortune (if I had it) that when this story broke there were a bunch of pundits at MSNBC whispering frantically to themselves "please don't be a Biden supporter, and at Fox it was more "please be a Biden supporter". Conversely, if the shooting was an attempt at Biden it would be the opposite.
There doesn't seem to be any explicit evidence like you sometimes get with shooters where they manifestoes etc., this gap will give enough room for people to weasel their own pet theory into. I just wonder how long it will take for some of them to enter the mainstream, I wonder how long it will take for Trump to start spouting them.

 

[Alexandria Nick]

Here's a suggestion, don't hold a political rally outdoors with the potential target standing alone on an elevated podium wearing a red cap.

Or you could just secure a completely obvious shooting platform immediately adjacent to the event site, like you do for literally every other time someone with Secret Service details is outside speaking.

This isn't exactly the Jackal hiding out in an apartment overlooking the Gare Montparnasse in downtown Paris. It was "there's exactly one multi-story building with line of sight for a half mile in every direction, should we do anything about it? Naw."

 

[Scaramanga]

I synced up the videos, the counter-sniper seems to react within less than a second of the first shot being fired.

Of course, questions are and ought to be asked about how the response ever got to be that late. The Special Services guy was already facing in the direction of the sniper 130 metres away.

 

[Ann K]

Of course, questions are and ought to be asked about how the response ever got to be that late. The Special Services guy was already facing in the direction of the sniper 130 metres away.

Suggested scenario (for which I have no proof, but it ties together several partial stories) - The policeman on the ground spotted the sniper and contacted the Feds. But that roof is not completely flat; could the gunman have been invisible because he was on the slope of the roof away from the rally? If the Feds were looking because they had been alerted, but saw nothing at that moment, maybe the gunman popped up at the last minute and started shooting.

 

[jimmyslippin]

guys maybe we should stop speculating so much about the shooters motives and assumed mental disorders.

you didnt knew him, you have no information, you are acting like these ufo guys spinning whole movie plots based on a pixelated video.

this guy was in his twenties. being a bit socially awkward, having good grades and wearing the same cloths often sounds like 90% of all reasonable intelligent male teenagers to me. im pretty sure some with the same traits even end up creating video games about skateboarders instead of shooting a politician...

speculation is useful to some extend when its based on factual evidence.

I can't believe that actually needed to be said on this forum.

It's really been disheartening watching people from either side of the political aisle convince themselves over the last two days that this was either a completely staged event or the shooter was CIA-influenced patsy. I was watching Jimmy Dore this morning (I can only blame myself, the guy has been going off the rails for years now) who is firmly in the latter camp, and it just amazed me how quickly he would arrive at conclusions that were entirely based on assumptions like knowing exactly what snipers were looking at through scopes with limited fields of view.

But this is how conspiracy theories are born. The loudest voices filling the void of the first 48 hours set the narratives and no amount of solid evidence is good enough for many of the people that invest in them.

 

[jimmyslippin]

Of course, questions are and ought to be asked about how the response ever got to be that late. The Special Services guy was already facing in the direction of the sniper 130 metres away.

It looks to me that from the sniper's view the shooter was concealed by tree cover.

 

[FatPhil]

Unfortunately these type of events turn into a point scoring exercise

Looks like -50 to me - 2 misses and 3 no-shoots. Yes, I am treating the nick of the ear as being in the 0.5cm non-scoring border.

 

[yoshy]

Has there been more information that came out regarding his interests? If not, we don't necessarily know that he was fixated on weapons/firearms.

He's wearing a Demolition Ranch shirt in the shooting. DR is a gun YouTube channel run by a far right person. He's also a 20 year old with an AR style rifle, so I think the odds point to him being a gun nut.

 

[yoshy]

This event has been a prime example of how conspiratorial thinking infests both the left and the right. There are nonstop conspiracy theories being posted on social media from both extremes.

It is not a good sign for our future.

 

[Ann K]

He's wearing a Demolition Ranch shirt in the shooting. DR is a gun YouTube channel run by a far right person. He's also a 20 year old with an AR style rifle, so I think the odds point to him being a gun nut.

T-shirt available at Walmart. His father owned the gun (for all I know, that also may have been sold at Walmart), but I don't know if that's emblematic of a "gun nut" or whether it's just a bandwagon, "everybody's getting one" purchase. I haven't heard if the household had other weapons.

 

[RTM]

This event has been a prime example of how conspiratorial thinking infests both the left and the right. There are nonstop conspiracy theories being posted on social media from both extremes.

It is not a good sign for our future.

We had the enlightenment, welcome to the de-enlightenment.

 

[Duke]

Suggested scenario (for which I have no proof, but it ties together several partial stories) - The policeman on the ground spotted the sniper and contacted the Feds. But that roof is not completely flat; could the gunman have been invisible because he was on the slope of the roof away from the rally? If the Feds were looking because they had been alerted, but saw nothing at that moment, maybe the gunman popped up at the last minute and started shooting.

If you watch the counter-sniper in the synched video Mick posted (in #18 above), you can see him moving his head back from his rifle scope just before he fires. You can see he's sighting down the scope for several seconds, then pulls back. The sniper appears to return fire without his eye on the scope.

So using your scenario, the sniper team (shooter and spotter) was notified of the threat and began looking for the guy through their scopes. He was behind the slope of roof and could not be seen, especially through a scope due to it narrow field of view. He sees movement through the scope as the shooter prepares to engage, takes his eye off the scope to see where/how the shooter has moved to shot, just as the first shot is fired.

 

[Mendel]

Here's a suggestion, don't hold a political rally outdoors with the potential target standing alone on an elevated podium wearing a red cap.

What would you suggest? Seated in a moving car? Perhaps in a theater box?

I suspect you are a US citizen, yes?

Article:

In all of these cases, the attacker's weapon was a firearm.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots

 

[taurusclover21]

Or you could just secure a completely obvious shooting platform

The point is that's not required when holding a rally inside a controlled building.

 

[jimmyslippin]

He was behind the slope of roof and could not be seen, especially through a scope due to it narrow field of view. He sees movement through the scope as the shooter prepares to engage, takes his eye off the scope to see where/how the shooter has moved to shot, just as the first shot is fired.

This video of an aerial view from BBC is the best demonstration of trees blocking the view of the sniper seen reacting in other videos. The exact location of the shooter's body is visible.

1:13

 

[taurusclover21]

What would you suggest? Seated in a moving car? Perhaps in a theater box?

Isn't what I suggested obvious? Not outside, but inside a controlled auditorium or similar building.

But seriously, you're comparing the JFK assassination wherein JFK was outside in an open convertible or Lincoln at Ford's theater? Come on...

 

[Mendel]

I wonder if they had some drones in the air for surveillance.

 

[Mendel]

Isn't what I suggested obvious? Not outside, but inside a controlled auditorium or similar building.

But seriously, you're comparing the JFK assassination wherein JFK was outside in an open convertible or Lincoln at Ford's theater? Come on...

Yes. Because it shows that your hindsight-informed "well, they shouldn't have done that" is not worth that much.

Look at the list, plenty of Presidents have been shot inside.

The common factor is the access to the gun.

 

[jimmyslippin]

This video appears to be one of the earliest sightings of the shooter on the roof. People immediately adjacent to the building start reacting to the shooter's presence about 5 seconds in.

Syncing up the audio of Trump in the background with a Youtube video of Trump's speaking event, this sighting occurs about 1:55 before the first shot is fired. The video also contains the voice of someone trying to alert an officer, which occurs about 1:25 before the first shot is fired. Nobody mentions witnessing a gun.

 

[taurusclover21]

Look at the list, plenty of Presidents have been shot inside.

So therefore it is not a good suggestion to hold political rallies indoors instead of outdoors where the building can be secured and attendees can be vetted and searched using modern scanning equipment, whereas this can't be done similarly outdoors.

Regardless, what presidents have shot in a secured building where the measures I mentioned above were in effect?