Transients in the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey

Dr. Villarroel made this rather interesting statement on X today.

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The biggest mistake by anyone who dismisses the transients as emulsion defects is thinking this solves the problem. If all transients were proven to be emulsion defects, the anomaly wouldn't disappear — it would move from observational astronomy to psi research. One would then have to explain why supposedly local, random processes in photographic emulsions systematically avoid Earth's shadow, and correlate with major events such as nuclear bomb tests or waves of UFO sightings.

Source: https://x.com/DrBeaVillarroel/status/2003122714291146866

Well, that just digs her into a deeper hole on the spurious correlations.

Other than the shadow question, for which I've not looked at any data. That seems to be an incredibly compute-heavy process, involving calculations for every exposure of every plate taken at different times of night pointing at different parts of the sky in varying seasons.
 
Dr. Villarroel made this rather interesting statement on X today.

External Quote:
The biggest mistake by anyone who dismisses the transients as emulsion defects is thinking this solves the problem. If all transients were proven to be emulsion defects, the anomaly wouldn't disappear — it would move from observational astronomy to psi research. One would then have to explain why supposedly local, random processes in photographic emulsions systematically avoid Earth's shadow, and correlate with major events such as nuclear bomb tests or waves of UFO sightings.

Source: https://x.com/DrBeaVillarroel/status/2003122714291146866

Yes, she's right and wrong at the same time.
The phenomenon needs a statistical explanation, and I expect the shadow deficit is going to be explainable because the first processing steps create a milkyway-shaped hole in the data set, i.e. if we had a random sample of dots distributed over the plates, after processing we'd still see the deficit.
We'd already have proof of this (or not?) if Villarroel had published her data and scripts, so her results are more easily replicable.
What I do know is that her own statistical comments in the paper contradict her own explanation.

The nuke test correlation I expect to go away once the statistics are done per plate and not per date, and here, too, she hasn't even published the list of test dates she used, and we had trouble replicating it exactly.
 
the shadow deficit is going to be explainable because the first processing steps create a milkyway-shaped hole in the data set, i.e. if we had a random sample of dots distributed over the plates, after processing we'd still see the deficit.

Is that because the milky way has a high density of stars that get recorded on the plates, and when 'transient' dots are randomly sprinkled across the plates there is a higher chance of them overlapping with the many stars in the milky way? So therefore when a transient is layered over top of a star it is not noticed and not cataloged making it appear that they 'avoid'(Dr V's word) an area? Finally the milky way coincidentally appears in some of the same areas of the sky as the umbra of the earths shadow allowing for a incorrect correlation?
 
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We'd already have proof of this (or not?) if Villarroel had published her data and scripts, so her results are more easily replicable.
What I do know is that her own statistical comments in the paper contradict her own explanation.

The nuke test correlation I expect to go away once the statistics are done per plate and not per date, and here, too, she hasn't even published the list of test dates she used, and we had trouble replicating it exactly.
When I was in second grade, during math lessons we were required to show our work, and "show your work" was the repeated injunction through the last math class I ever took. I presume that still applies after one has earned one's doctorate and is a working astrophysicist?
 
Dr. Villarroel made this rather interesting statement on X today.

External Quote:
The biggest mistake by anyone who dismisses the transients as emulsion defects is thinking this solves the problem. If all transients were proven to be emulsion defects, the anomaly wouldn't disappear — it would move from observational astronomy to psi research. One would then have to explain why supposedly local, random processes in photographic emulsions systematically avoid Earth's shadow, and correlate with major events such as nuclear bomb tests or waves of UFO sightings.

Source: https://x.com/DrBeaVillarroel/status/2003122714291146866

Wow. She shot right past special pleading into psi-woo.
 
Wow. She shot right past special pleading into psi-woo.
I read that as: she is saying her theory that "the transient dots are physical objects in earths orbit" is the most likely and reasonable explanation to why there is a dearth of them in the earths shadow. And for people who disagree, some "extraordinary psi-woo" would have be the only other explanation to explain the statistical trend. I guess an error in their procedures or statistical analysis is not a possibility in her mind. Their analysis is beyond reproach.
 
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Wow. She shot right past special pleading into psi-woo.

Is it me, or does it also create a bit of circular reasoning. Defects can't correlate with bomb tests, so these can't be defects because we think they correlate with bomb tests. They claim some transients correlate with bomb tests, but never offer any evidence of that. A quick look at just October of 1954 showed that the majority of the correlated Soviet tests were just a coincidence. Lots of plates were made that month, which could include lots of defects/transients and the Soviets happened to test a lot of bombs that month.

She's doubling down on the techo-signature(aliens) claim while still not explaining how they arrived at the supposed correlations that support that claim.
 
Is it me, or does it also create a bit of circular reasoning. Defects can't correlate with bomb tests, so these can't be defects because we think they correlate with bomb tests. They claim some transients correlate with bomb tests, but never offer any evidence of that. A quick look at just October of 1954 showed that the majority of the correlated Soviet tests were just a coincidence. Lots of plates were made that month, which could include lots of defects/transients and the Soviets happened to test a lot of bombs that month.

She's doubling down on the techo-signature(aliens) claim while still not explaining how they arrived at the supposed correlations that support that claim.
There are also several bomb events on the U.S. list that weren't detonations, just "safety tests" to confirm that blowing up a bomb with conventional explosives wouldn't set off the fission reactions by accident. The paper's definitions of nuclear tests, test dates, and correlations are rather loose.

(On the correlation with UFO sightings, I don't see the plausible mechanism connecting reports of people mistaking Sirius and Jupiter for alien spaceships with the appearance of transients in the sky survey.)
 
Is that because the milky way has a high density of stars that get recorded on the plates, and when 'transient' dots are randomly sprinkled across the plates there is a higher chance of them overlapping with the many stars in the milky way? So therefore when a transient is layered over top of a star it is not noticed and not cataloged making it appear that they 'avoid'(Dr V's word) an area? Finally the milky way coincidentally appears in some of the same areas of the sky as the umbra of the earths shadow allowing for a incorrect correlation?
first, you cut "I expect" from my quote, which indicates that I think what follows is likely, but it hasn't been done yet, so I'm not 100% certain.

Second, yes, the Milky Way digs a nonrandom hole in the distribution (that can be seen in the neoWISE crossmatch catalog), and it's near the area where the Earth shadow is more likely to be found. So if the distribution has fewer points in Earth's shadow to begin with, then singling out a subset of it will produce the same pattern.
That pattern is also not going to point at a specific orbital height, and I believe Villarroel's data set doesn't, either, and Villarroel knows this.
 
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Dr. Villarroel made this rather interesting statement on X today.

External Quote:
The biggest mistake by anyone who dismisses the transients as emulsion defects is thinking this solves the problem. If all transients were proven to be emulsion defects, the anomaly wouldn't disappear — it would move from observational astronomy to psi research. One would then have to explain why supposedly local, random processes in photographic emulsions systematically avoid Earth's shadow, and correlate with major events such as nuclear bomb tests or waves of UFO sightings.

Source: https://x.com/DrBeaVillarroel/status/2003122714291146866

Oh well. The paper itself frames correlations with external events as preliminary (∼3σ) and not causal :rolleyes:
 
Dr. Villarroel made this rather interesting statement on X today.

External Quote:
The biggest mistake by anyone who dismisses the transients as emulsion defects is thinking this solves the problem. If all transients were proven to be emulsion defects, the anomaly wouldn't disappear — it would move from observational astronomy to psi research. One would then have to explain why supposedly local, random processes in photographic emulsions systematically avoid Earth's shadow, and correlate with major events such as nuclear bomb tests or waves of UFO sightings.

Source: https://x.com/DrBeaVillarroel/status/2003122714291146866

And we're now fully into unfalsifiable territory on this, if we weren't before. If it's not aliens, it's psi; if it's not psi, it's ...?
 
first, you cut "I expect" from my quote, which indicates that I think what follows is likely, but it hasn't been done yet, so I'm not 100% certain.

Second, yes, the Milky Way digs a nonrandom hole in the distribution (that can be seen in the neoWISE crossmatch catalog), and it's near the area where the Earth shadow is more likely to be found. So if the distribution has fewer points in Earth's shadow to begin with, then singling out a subset of it will produce the same pattern.
That pattern is also not going to point at a specific orbital height, and I believe Villarroel's data set doesn't, either, and Villarroel knows this.
Have you (or anyone) responded to her on Twitter with that second paragraph? That's very good work and questions
 
It is an interesting coincidence that the plane of the ecliptic (which is where the Earth's shadow always falls) crosses the plane of the galaxy (which is where the largest concentration of stars in the galaxy are) in the constellations Scorpius, Ophiuchus and Sagittarius. Sagittarius contains the Galactic central bulge, so one would expect the largest number of stars in the entire sky to fall in that constellation. This would mean the largest numbers of transients would be 'identified and eliminated' in that region.

I suspect very strongly that these 'identifications and eliminations' are mostly spurious, and the distribution of transients on these plates is more or less random; however the fact that more transients have been eliminated in Sagittarius than elsewhere means that a false correlation has occurred. Conversely, the regions around the galactic poles in Sculptor and Coma Berenices (where stars are less densely packed so there would be fewer eliminations), are far away from the ecliptic plane.

There may be other factors, but this effect is almost certainly significant.
 
Are we supposed to be impressed by this statement? No disrespect meant to Brian Doherty, but he is just some guy in data analytics that is not even showing his work.
This basically amount to a "Some guy checked it".
 
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No disrespect meant to Brian Doherty, but he is just some guy in data analytics that is not even showing his work.

Can anyone find him? LinkedIn has a number of Brian Dohertys, but none of them seem to be this guy. There's no letterhead, no company name, no institution, just a Gmail account.
 
I'm fairly confident there are competent people with a background in statistical analysis and physics/ astronomy.

Without transparency for the claimed nuclear test dates used, or independent review of what photographic features Villarroel et al. identified as transients, I don't think this moves things on.

It is sensible to check the statistical working, but as @jdog implied that doesn't validate the data sets used.
 
I don't think its surprising that someone has taken the same data, followed the same methods, and ended up with the the same results. All that does is verify the process, but it doesn't validate the conclusions. What would be much more positive is if someone had objectively reviewed and been critical of the process and results, and still come up with the same conclusions. Falsification is often more important than confirmation, and surviving attempts at falsification make scientific theories stronger. Just putting data through a sausage machine doesn't.
 
Someone ought to invite him to share all the data and methods he used in the transient technical thread. You're all independent researchers, after all. The Metabunk technical threads are where the real work is done and he'd make a valuable contribution.

Everybody wants to know if E.T. called.
 
(Continuing discussion from post #228 in the Digitised Sky Survey POSS-1 thread):

For anyone interested there has been a paper published to Arxiv on Feb 4, 2026 critical of the VASCO POSS-1 Transients:

Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates by Wesley A Watters, et al

Trouble in paradise?
Four of the five authors of "Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures in the POSS1-E Photographic Plates",
Wesley Andrés Watters, Laura Dominé, Sarah Little and Kevin H. Knuth were co-authors, along with Villarroel, of the paper (well, opinion piece)
"The New Science of Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena" (link https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.06794; thread New Science of UAP Paper).
Knuth was the lead author.

In the abstract of "Critical Evaluation of Studies..." they write

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Recent studies by B. Villarroel and colleagues have assembled and analyzed datasets of unidentified features...
These studies have called attention to (i) a purported deficit of features within Earth's shadow; (ii) the sporadic presence of linear clusters; and (iii) a positive correlation between the timing of feature observations and nuclear tests as well as Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) sighting reports.

...we do not observe the reported deficit in the terrestrial shadow. We determine that a third of the features in the reported linear clusters were not confidently distinguished from catalog stars. We find that the reported correlation between the timing of feature observations and nuclear tests becomes insignificant after properly normalizing by the number of observation days, and is almost completely determined by the observation schedule of the Palomar telescope. We uncover important inconsistencies in the definitions of the datasets used in these studies, as well as the use of unvalidated datasets containing catalog stars, scan artifacts, and plate defects. It has not been shown that any of the features in these datasets represent optical transients.
 
Trouble in paradise?

Interesting! It would seem the listing of the whole VASCO project in The New Science of Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena is what got Villarreol a co-authorship for it. Many, if not most, of the co-authors didn't appear to actually write anything, rather their UFO projects were mentioned or listed.

Now we have Knuth, the lead author of New Science, and a big UFO proponent, saying former co-author Villarreol's seminal work is wrong?

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It has not been shown that any of the features in these datasets represent optical transients.
That conclusion doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room. I would have expected maybe a critique with helpful suggestions about making the study more robust, at least from these guys. Maybe they looked at Hambly and Blair then back at the original Solan paper and realized it just didn't hold water? Maybe decided as UFO people to get out in front of the issues before some skeptic does? Now we have Knuth telling Villarreol she's wrong and Villarreol and the likes of Matt Ford telling Knuth he doesn't know what he's talking about. Maybe sit back with a bowl of popcorn.

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We find that the reported correlation between the timing of feature observations and nuclear tests becomes insignificant after properly normalizing by the number of observation days, and is almost completely determined by the observation schedule of the Palomar telescope.
I think a few of us dullards here figured this out a while ago. Lots of nuclear tests in October and lots of plate exposures in October does not equal UFOs.
 
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It has not been shown that any of the features in these datasets represent optical transients.
That conclusion doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room. I would have expected maybe a critique with helpful suggestions about making the study more robust, at least from these guys. Maybe they looked at Hambly and Blair then back at the original Solan paper and realized it just didn't hold water?

The paper "Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures..." is noticeably direct in its criticism of Villarroel's transient-related work.
It includes a diagram Villarroel et al.'s alleged circular reasoning, which I suspect (but don't know) might be unusual in astronomy-related papers:

Screenshot 2026-02-09 012934.png


"B. Villarroel et al. (2025c)" is "Aligned, Multiple-transient Events in the First Palomar Sky Survey", Villarroel, B., Solano, E., Guergouri, H. et al., 2025, Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific 137 (10) https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/ae0afe

Reading the Acknowledgements section of "Critical Evaluation of Studies...", there is an interesting snippet of information:
Lead author Wesley Andres Waters ("WW" in the quote below) worked with Villarroel on "Aligned, Multiple-transient Events in the First Palomar Sky Survey".
(In the quote below, V, S, R and W refer to datasets used by Villarroel et al.):

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WW received a copy of V in July 2025 while collaborating on a manuscript that was published as B. Villarroel et al. (2025c) in late September 2025. When voluntarily withdrawing from this paper in July, WW raised early concerns regarding the spatial distribution of SPFs with the lead author (BV). B. Villarroel et al. (2025c) states that "Data will be shared on reasonable request to the corresponding author," presumably in reference to S or V. In the late fall of 2025, co-authors KK and LD (of this study) independently requested copies of these datasets, and were told they are not yet available. Because we have not obtained permission to publish analyses of V , we have used and reported here only on the publicly available datasets R and W.

"SPFs" means "Selected POSS1-E features", the preferred term used by the "Critical Evaluation of Studies..." authors, perhaps so the features of interest aren't referred to as "transients" by default:
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We shall use the term "Selected POSS1-E features"(SPFs) to refer to features selected from POSS1-E plates in these and other studies, where the selection criteria differed depending on the dataset in question. We have done this partly in order to suspend judgment about the ultimate origin(s) of the features studied in B. Villarroel et al. (2025c) and E. Solano et al. (2022).

The use of the Acknowledgements section to convey that another researcher has not shared relevant data might be unusual.

Maybe this will end up as a Netflix series...
 
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We find that the reported correlation between the timing of feature observations and nuclear tests becomes insignificant after properly normalizing by the number of observation days, and is almost completely determined by the observation schedule of the Palomar telescope.
I think a few of us dullards here figured this out a while ago. Lots of nuclear tests in October and lots of plate exposures in October does not equal UFOs.
I am feeling kind of vindicated on that point.

I'm also interested in the circular reasoning argument. It occurs to me that they don't cite any prior research for their interpretation of the transients as objects in orbit; in fact most of their citations of prior research are largely unrelated to their actual claims (the paper on looking for ancient satellites in orbit was about looking for debris belts around exoplanets, the claim of UFOs being associated with nuclear tests cites a book that only talks about UFOs being reported at missile silos and the like).
 
I am feeling kind of vindicated on that point.

I'm also interested in the circular reasoning argument. It occurs to me that they don't cite any prior research for their interpretation of the transients as objects in orbit; in fact most of their citations of prior research are largely unrelated to their actual claims (the paper on looking for ancient satellites in orbit was about looking for debris belts around exoplanets, the claim of UFOs being associated with nuclear tests cites a book that only talks about UFOs being reported at missile silos and the like).
Citation Farming?
 
in fact most of their citations of prior research are largely unrelated to their actual claims (the paper on looking for ancient satellites in orbit was about looking for debris belts around exoplanets, the claim of UFOs being associated with nuclear tests cites a book that only talks about UFOs being reported at missile silos and the like).

Yes, it's not a very long reference list Edited to add: see @jdog's post #594 below.

(This post originally said there were just 16 references, but I was thinking of the references cited in a different paper Villarroel co-authored,
"Some Transients in the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS-I) May Be Associated with Above-Ground Nuclear Testing and Reports of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena", S. Bruehl, B. Villarroel 2025, https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-6347224/v1,
commented on in post #169)

In "Critical Evaluation of Studies Alleging Evidence for Technosignatures..." the authors strongly imply that Villarroel et al. weren't sufficiently acquainted with existing literature relevant to their work;
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We conducted a review of optical transient searches in photographic plates, in the context of historical searches for the optical counterparts of Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). Following two decades of work, even tentative identification of optical flashes required close microscopic analysis of glass plates, which B. Villarroel et al. (2025c) did not perform. This and preceding work (B. Villarroel et al. 2021, 2022; E. Solano et al. 2022,2024) have not heeded the primary lessons from this literature.

Citation Farming?
Not sure re. Villarroel et al.'s papers about claimed transients, but the "The New Science of Unidentified Aerospace-Undersea Phenomena" (link https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.06794; thread New Science of UAP Paper) is essentially an opinion/ discussion piece with 34 cited authors.

IMHO it is equivalent to "We the undersigned believe some UAP are alien craft" with a collection of UFO reports, which are taken at face value and without any critical examination. Old misconceptions and improbable accounts are repeated:

Roswell is mentioned under "Physical Evidence" but its probable cause is not. There was an "incursion" at Malmstrom air force base in 1967. The Ubatuba incident "involved the catastrophic explosion of a UFO". At Council Bluffs "about 11 people, in separate groups, witnessed an event where a hovering object dropped a large mass of molten metal"; but only 5 witnesses were identified; 2 claimed to see a hovering UFO, 3 others claimed to see something fall (but not from anything), none saw anything drop from a hovering object.

The 34 authors include Villarroel, 4 of the "Critical Evaluation..." authors (Knuth is the lead author of "The New Science..."), Jacques Vallee, Gerald and John Tedesco, Garry Nolan, Ryan Graves; it's almost a "Who's Who" of contemporary UFOlogy.
It's hard not to see the paper as, in part, an attempt to get the names of a large number of "UFOs are alien" believers onto one potentially citable paper, the content of which presents little new thinking and which repeats some dubious claims not because they are likely to be accurate but because, taken at face value, they support the 34 author's beliefs.
 
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Citation Farming?
The original preprint cited 19 prior works (including six prior Villarroel-coauthored papers).

None of the other papers dealt with the visual detection of objects in Earth orbit, even though this has been a topic of keen study for decades. (See Orbital Foregrounds for Ultra-short Duration Transients, a 2020 paper where the authors "visually inspected 27,817 randomly selected single-epoch candidates that passed our automated vetting as described in Section 2.2.")
 
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