Third of millennials NOT convinced Earth is round

qed

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FLAT EARTH SHOCK: Third of millennials NOT convinced Earth is round

Despite overwhelming evidence that Earth is a spherical globe-shape, including both pictorial and video evidence, a third of young people believe that the Earth could be flat.

A survey carried out by YouGov which polled 8,215 US adults found that 84 percent believe that the Earth is round.

But that figure falls to just 66 percent of 18 to 24-year olds, a generation known as millennials, who are convinced convinced that the Earth is a globe.

Of the remaining millennials who took the survey, nine percent said they were recently having doubts that the Earth is round, five percent said they believed that the Earth is flat and the rest were unsure.
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express.co.uk/news/science
A trend or merely a right-of-passage?
 
Chiming in as Metabunk's local friendly pet millenial, I highly doubt this. Most millenials I know are more interested in poking not-so-gentle fun at the flat earth community than they are in actually believing it. I know many millenials who may believe in the metaphysical, the paranormal, and the fringe, but as far as the flat earth ideology goes, I know not one single peer who believes in it. Gen-Xers and Boomers I know, on the other hand, tend to believe in it a bit more.

This is my subjective experience, of course, but seeing as how I'm a millenial myself I feel like I have more of a finger on the pulse of the millenial zeitgeist.
 
Chiming in as Metabunk's local friendly pet millenial, I highly doubt this. Most millenials I know are more interested in poking not-so-gentle fun at the flat earth community than they are in actually believing it.

How many very religious christian millennials do you know?
 
How many very religious christian millennials do you know?
Probably seven or eight, depending on the definition of 'very religious'. Most millenials I know who would believe in this are more the type to disbelieve anything and everything that the mainstream media/science would tell them, and are more the new age/spiritual type rather than Christian. I know a handful of millenials who believe everything sites like Natural News tell them, who are into chemtrails, the anti-vax movement, false flags, alternative health, anything that isn't "what 'they' want you to think". Of those who question everything mainstream, not a single one of them questions the shape of the earth that I can see. If they do, it's the only conspiracy they are not extremely vocal about.
 
Can we correct the thread title to "One third of AMERICAN millenials ... " since it was an exclusively American survey?
 
"Other/Not sure" is actually the "correct" answer, technically, at least not wrong. Although the first and perhaps second is reasonable as well. One can not simply assume "other/not sure" means they think the earth might be flat.

There seems to be a negative correlation between age and belief that the earth is flat though, but perhaps that is not so surprising.
 
So you think they were just having a bit of fun with the survey?
That's my hunch, yeah. I see a lot of headlines about millenials that are sensationalized (i.e. 'Millenials eat Tide Pods'--that was a meme that then turned into a few viral videos, people made fun of said viral videos and headlines went wild) and think that this is one of them.
Reading up on YouGov a bit, I'm even more convinced that this is the case:
As a member of the YouGov panel you will be part of a global community of people who share their opinions in return for points and rewards. It couldn't be easier: we email you a survey link, you complete the survey at your convenience and earn points for doing so! You can redeem your points for great rewards.
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It's similar to any number of sites that reward people for mindlessly answering surveys, and I could definitely see enough millenials fooling around with it that the results are skewed and then Express takes already slightly skewed results and turns it into a FLAT EARTH SHOCK!!!!!!! headline.
 
Kids glom onto all kinds of fads (holy **** I just realized I consider anything under 22 a "kid" now when did I get so old?). I suspect this is no different than pogs or tomagachis or planking or tide pods. Bunk falls into it, to. The alien autopsy was big in my high school, until a few years after my graduation Loose Change took over that social role. And my niece's friends were all into false flag bunk until she went to college and found a group who'd be her friend if she was into manga.


I've said in the past how conspiracy theories come in waves, as the less committed move on to more trendy topics, leaving the deeper and deeper fringe to take over an ever shrinking community. Kids jumping the bandwagon of stupid stuff is, I think, a big part of it. 9/11 fades, chemtrails rise. Chemtrails fade, flat earth rises. One generation grows up and discovers sex and alcohol, another takes over with terrible music and new bunk, armed with just enough knowledge to be exploited but not yet armored with the experience to protect themselves.
 
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It's similar to any number of sites that reward people for mindlessly answering surveys, and I could definitely see enough millenials fooling around with it that the results are skewed
I do when I take those survey things. Plus I lie about my age*, because at my age whenever I finish the survey they tell me I don't fit any of their marketing criteria :( so I don't get the rewards. it's annoying. So yea I'm always 22 or so because it seems that is the consumer target.
YouGov is a world-leading online market research company
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*I actually lie about everything. and they must have this issue a lot because they will ask like 3 different times "what was your age again?" "where do you live again?" :)
 
That's my hunch, yeah. I see a lot of headlines about millennials that are sensationalized (i.e. 'Millennials eat Tide Pods'--that was a meme that then turned into a few viral videos, people made fun of said viral videos and headlines went wild) and think that this is one of them.
What we do see in the poll, though, is a steady and consistent trend towards globe earth belief being stronger the older the respondent, and doubt in the globe earth being weaker. If we assume that the millenials were 'messing about', they would be bucking this trend. And if we assume a percentage of them were, we may as well assume a percentage of the other groups were too - which may mean less people overall think the earth is/may be flat, but wouldn't alter that millennials would be the most likely to think this.

My feeling is that a very small percentage were messing about, but overall the figures are fairly accurately representative. The sample size was 8,215, spread over five age groups. On average, that makes 1,643 per age group - more than enough to have fairly good confidence in the results.

In a nutshell, the exact figures may be slightly skewed, but the trends indicated are probably about right.

Though, as Hevach points out, it's also much more likely that younger people are affected by fads.

(Anyone under about 26 looks like a kid to me, Hevach - does that mean I'm 4 years older than you? ;) )
 
Though, as Hevach points out, it's also much more likely that younger people are affected by fads.
I agree this is likely the strongest factor. "It's hip to be different".

But still 16% checked "other/I don't know" (which is probably what I would check as I'm not really reading the questions).
I think there was a poll that said 1 in 4 Americans don't know the Earth revolves around the Sun. So.. "I don't know" might literally mean "I don't know" ie. I never thought about it or I don't understand the question. I don't personally think that equates to "not convinced the earth is round" . So maybe a slightly more accurate title would be "25% of millennials blah blah"

I think the 'very religious' information is more interesting. although again, some respondents might be trolling a bit and
 
The sample size was 8,215, spread over five age groups
where are you seeing that? I cant find a link to the actual data.

(although I do believe the younger group had plenty of respondents since itune gift cards are one of the rewards)
 
Answer 3+4: 9 7 4 4 3, that is pretty strongly negatively correlation [with age] but to determine if this is a problem with millenials in particular, or just an age thing, you would also have to compare with identical surveys made 10, 20, 30, etc, years ago.

Yougov only sample voluntary internet users:
The company’s methodology involves obtaining responses from an invited group of Internet users, and then weighting these responses in line with demographic information.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouGov#Methodology

That means they have problems with selection bias, e.g. there might be less elderly that use the internet and the ones that do are perhaps more educated, etc. So Yougov don't get a truly random sample and thus the results are not very accurate. They do try to compensate for that though.
 
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I don't doubt some of those surveyed truly believe the Earth is a frisbee in space, but a lot are probably just not being serious and messing about with the poll. I'm 26 but I know I like to troll the odd poll. Some doubt because it's become a meme at this point and want to have a bit of fun with people on the internet or their favourite celebrity is a flat earther; can't trust NASA because photoshop.

It's only 9% that are flat earthers and 16% unsure/other. one third makes a sexier headline.
 
where are you seeing that? I cant find a link to the actual data
It's in the OP. ;)

Mick's links'll take you to the main site, eventually. Though I see the survey is still running, and the latest figures are a bit more slanted towards globe earth belief.
 
As a provision I am not saying believers of FE are mentally ill, but I would be interested to see a category for people that identify with a mental illness
 
no it's not. I'm talking about the numbers breakdown.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2018/04/02/most-flat-earthers-consider-themselves-religious/

Those who believe the Earth is flat vary in the exact theories, but whether they believe in science or religious literature as the basis for their claims, a new YouGov study reveals that 2% of Americans resolutely say the earth is flat.


8215 US adults were questioned on Feb 6, 2018.
Results are weighted to be representative of the US population.


While an overwhelming majority of Americans (84%) believe that the Earth is round, at least 5% of the public say they used to believe that but now have their doubts.

Flat earthers find traction in their beliefs among a younger generation of Americans. Young millennials, ages 18 to 24, are likelier than any other age group to say they believe the Earth is flat (4%).
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That YouGov page behaves oddly. The poll was on Feb 6, buy yesterday it said it was a live poll.
 
https://today.yougov.com/news/2018/04/02/most-flat-earthers-consider-themselves-religious/

Those who believe the Earth is flat vary in the exact theories, but whether they believe in science or religious literature as the basis for their claims, a new YouGov study reveals that 2% of Americans resolutely say the earth is flat.


8215 US adults were questioned on Feb 6, 2018.
Results are weighted to be representative of the US population.


While an overwhelming majority of Americans (84%) believe that the Earth is round, at least 5% of the public say they used to believe that but now have their doubts.

Flat earthers find traction in their beliefs among a younger generation of Americans. Young millennials, ages 18 to 24, are likelier than any other age group to say they believe the Earth is flat (4%).
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That YouGov page behaves oddly. The poll was on Feb 6, buy yesterday it said it was a live poll.
thanks but I was looking for the breakdown. you know, the "n=" for each category.
 
That YouGov page behaves oddly.
like here, it says they do report margins of errors.. but I'm not finding any of that info on their website. (it's a weird website to navigate)
YouGov reports a margin of sampling error for its surveys because, like all polls, the results are subject to random variability that is an inherent part of the sampling process. The reported margin of error is computed using the standard error formula described in Rivers and Bailey (2009). As noted by Gelman and Little (1997), this estimate is conservative, in the sense of slightly over-estimating the sampling error. Because we adjust for the impact of weighting, the reported margins of error for our surveys will be higher than those for survey of equivalent size which fail to adjust for weighting. The margin of error for subsamples will be larger and is reported separately for subsamples based on substantially smaller sample sizes. http://data.huffingtonpost.com/yougov/methodology
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thanks but I was looking for the breakdown. you know, the "n=" for each category.
The current page seems to have degraded somewhat. Maybe a bug. Older version of the page have a percentage breakdown
https://web.archive.org/web/2018040...-flat-earthers-consider-themselves-religious/

Metabunk 2018-04-12 09-11-46.jpg Metabunk 2018-04-12 09-12-00.jpg Metabunk 2018-04-12 09-12-14.jpg Metabunk 2018-04-12 09-12-28.jpg Metabunk 2018-04-12 09-12-45.jpg Metabunk 2018-04-12 09-12-57.jpg

With 8215 people sampled.

"Results are weighted to be representative of the US population." means that the 8215 people are not representative of the US population. So they multiply the results by variosu number to try to correct for this. Like if 90% of the respondents were under the age of 35, but only 45% of the US population is, then they reduce the "weight" of that 90% - so they only contribute 0.5 votes each. It's more complex with multiple variable (and, I suspect, not perfectly solvable)
 
So they multiply the results by variosu number to try to correct for this. Like if 90% of the respondents were under the age of 35, but only 45% of the US population is, then they reduce the "weight" of that 90%
thanks :) I was just now looking up what 'weighted' is. and a bit about the 'margin of error debate'. (not that I doubt the general results, I just like looking at exact numbers)

add: and by exact numbers I mean, exactly how many in each age group chose very religious etc. not percentages, real people numbers.
 
The current page seems to have degraded somewhat. Maybe a bug. Older versions of the page have a percentage breakdown.
The breakdown is there on the current page also; need to click the tabs beneath the table.

Anyone have the link to the "live poll" (rather than the "very religious" page)? Figures were slightly different - eg, 89% rather than 84% overall. I know I visited it yesterday but I'm having a devil of a time finding it now.

As for figures, if the over-18 population of the US is about 245 million, the 2% who state a full belief in flat earth represents around 5 million people - which seems ridiculously high.

At the very least, I'd want to see percentages to one decimal place; the actual figures; and some indication of the confidence level.
 
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The breakdown is there on the current page also; need to click the tabs beneath the table.

It is now. It wasn't last time I looked.

As for figures, if the over-18 population of the US is about 245 million, the 2% who state a full belief in flat earth represents around 5 million people - which seems ridiculously high.

It does not matter what you ask, there's never less than 1% for any question that I can recall. Ghosts, aliens, demons, magic, Mandela, chemtrails, Flat Earth, simulation, etc. They all get (theoretically) millions of believers.
 
Anyone have the link to the "live poll" (rather than the "very religious" page)?
that's what I'm looking for.

you see on the religious question data page where it says "(n.138)" ? Normally the "n" means that is specifically the number of people who answered the question. It matters somewhat because 138 people isn't a lot of people.

I'm looking for the number of 25-34 year olds who took the poll. etc.

At the very least, I'd want to see percentages to one decimal place; the actual figures; and some indication of the confidence level.


the Huffington Post which uses yougov to do their polls/surveys wrote this in Feb 2015 about the margin of error being reported with the poll.
Most industry standards and guidelines say that surveys drawn from nonrandom samples — typically the case with online polling — should not provide a margin of error when their results are generalized to the wider population.
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source link with next quote.

Basically the 'debate' seems to be that if you post the standard margin of error people will take that as a definite thing, and it isn't definite. And if you don't post a margin of error, people may not realize there is a margin of error :)


This ongoing debate creates a dilemma for The Huffington Post’s reporting of results from the opt-in online panel surveys we conduct in partnership with YouGov. Although YouGov calculates a “model-based margin of error” for each survey, we have not been reporting it when we discuss the survey results in HuffPost.

The problem: If we cite YouGov’s margin of error, we violate AAPOR’s Code of Ethics. If we leave out the margin of error, however, we fail to offer readers guidance on the random variation that’s present with this type of survey, which we believe is also an ethical lapse. As members and proponents of AAPOR, we consider neither situation satisfactory. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/03/margin-of-error-debate_n_6565788.html
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This is 3 years ago. But perhaps that is why we aren't seeing the margin of error. Even more reason the actual numbers should be available.
 
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