Avoiding WW3 has actually been a primary goal of western support up to this point. A principle argument for NOT supplying Ukraine with late model fighter planes was that a Ukrainian F-16 would look exactly like a nuclear capable NATO F-16 which could trigger an accidental war between nuclear powers.
Another escalation "risk" I saw repeatedly in the first year was that 'backing Putin into a corner' or overly embarrassing Russia might cause Putin to become desperate and use nuclear weapons to stabilize the situation.
The third idea that seemed to spook people was that using western arms to attack too deeply into Russian territory or too close to Moscow could cross some imaginary line that would provoke a nuclear response.
Putin is fully aware of these concerns and conducts a political theater exercise of observing, inspecting, or reinforcing Russian nuclear forces every 60-90 days. Like Trump, he knows what people are afraid of.
Three years of war have dispelled these ideas. All three lines have been crossed without the much feared Russian over-reaction.
- An entire brigade of western volunteers is fighting and dying for Ukraine.
- Ukraine has flown multiple strikes with ex-NATO F-16s. Some have already been lost to Russian defenses.
- Ukrainian forces have launch attacks hundreds of miles into Russia including the Moscow suburbs.
- Ukrainian forces have been operating on Russian soil in the Kursk region for over three months now.
- Multiple missiles and aircraft from both sides have violated NATO airspace without triggering an over-reaction from the west either.
Perversely, much of this line of thinking, "OMG WW3" seems to be coming from the American right which one would have naively assumed to be more educated in defense matters. However the element of fear underpinning so many of their other policies was a factor in my leaving the GOP so I really should have seen it sooner.
Putin just does not panic as easily as the chattering classes would have us believe. He now has the benefit of Russian air defenses that have gained three years of combat experience making it less likely they would mistake a Ukrainian unit for an incoming nuclear strike.
Without a third party peacekeeping force there is no peace plan. Without a peace plan the minerals agreement is worthless political theater. Putin and Zelensky both know this. So Putin waits while Trump squanders America's political capital and Zelensky tries to hold out while Europe tries to sort out a plan from the political debris.
Trump's "strategy" was to strong arm Ukraine into a ceasefire Russia was never going to honor, cut the flow of arms to Ukraine for the cost savings to satisfy his base, and collect a Nobel Peace Prize. When it all fell apart, he would just blame everyone but himself. Par for the course.
Regan understood much better than Trump the need to gain an edge prior to negotiations. He began a major defense build up to counter the Warsaw Pact's numerical advantages in conventional weapons. He upgraded American nuclear forces and started SDI. He deployed intermediate range nuclear forces to Europe. Only after putting these things visibly in motion did he sit down and negotiate. He now had extra pieces to trade in exchange for getting agreements on something that did matter to both sides, nuclear arms reductions.
