[Possible explanation] Kevin Day (Nimitz tictac ufos) radar encounter

div

New Member
some quotes(below) from this interview:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2zRabdvKnw


"... over the course of 3-4 days..." / "...several days..."
"... the only thing i could think that it could possible be were balloons..."

and location where he saw ufos, were south of san clemente island
ZyuoVJ5R4015_eXocRqqrVVStoe5TOMHGW2IGQiYJag.jpg
(screenshot from Nimitz encounters film)

As we know, this island is used for military exercises, and by looking at that document https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2015/1194/ofr20151194_appendix1.pdf
we can see that one of them is Stinger training (at the bottom)


Screen Shot 2020-05-25 at 10.27.39.png

it has similar duration of 4 days, and it's location is in China Point

which is over here:
Screen Shot 2020-05-25 at 10.32.27.png

and in exercise description (page 43) it states, that aerial targets are used:
"The targets would be either Ballistic Aerial Targets (BATs) or Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPVs) and would be launched from a catapult type launcher that would be temporarily set up at an existing cleared area on China Point"

also this:
The stingers would be fired toward the ocean and impact an aerial target over the ocean at ranges of from 1 to 8 km (0.6 to 5 mi.) offshore...
...Training would be conducted predominantly in the daytime


sadly targets in description aren't balloons, but with some googling i found some book by ex-military guy with this:

Screen Shot 2020-05-25 at 10.34.35.png

which is how stinger will find it's target, so it seems to me that that is entirely possible that it might be target balloons with flares that survived and drifted away
 
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Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
so it seems to me that that is entirely possible that it might be target balloons with flares that survived and drifted away
Quite possible. Or target balloons without flares. Given that there seem to be a few of them then that seems a bit more likely than a fancy spy balloon or drone.

Target balloons have been used for decades. Here's some from 1943:
Metabunk 2020-05-25 06-21-32.jpg
Source: https://www.history.navy.mil/our-co...ries/nh-series/80-G-K-13000/80-G-K-13809.html

It would almost certainly have to include some kind of radar reflector though.
 

div

New Member
was thinking about those stinger exersices some more and decided that TicTac might just be target drone and not balloon like i thought at first and created this comparison image which actually also solves radar jamming.

better to look at full size: https://i.redd.it/1bxsco6gcji51.png

nimitz2.png
 

jackfrostvc

New Member
The other aspect is Fravors account where he says it was bouncing around a bit back and forth and left to right above the disturbance in the water.If true, that cant be a drone, more like a small blimp type balloon tied to a submarine in changing direction wind.

But then, a blimp type balloon wouldn't fit Fravors claim that it shot off at speed unless he was at least somewhat mistaken
Interestingly, when the first Tic Tac vid was leaked in 2007 on the Above Top Secret forum, a pilot report of Fravors account also came out with it, that report has Favor saying the object reached a max speed of Mach 1 and that he lost it in Haze. Which adds yet another dimension to the story which is different again to what he says these days

From the ATS 2007 leaked report:
"PILOT ESTIMATED THAT CAPSULE ACHIEVED 600-700 KTS. FAST EAGLE 110 COULD NOT KEEP UP WITH THE RATE OF TURN AND THE GAIN OF ALTITUDE BY THE CAPSULE. 110 LOST VISUAL ID OF CAPSULE IN HAZE."

It's also interesting that one of the other WSO's or pilot that was in Fravors group that encountered the Tic Tac said they thought the object causing the disturbance in the water was probably a submarine. I'll have to find a reference to it, but I clearly remember that in one article.

It's interesting because Fravor said he didn't think it was a sub because the object seemed to have been as large as, or larger than an airliner. And Fravor thought Subs are not as big as an airliner
According to this article, the USS louisville was with the fleet that day, it's a Los Angelas Class sub. -> https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...ter-between-f-a-18s-and-ufo-off-baja-surfaces

A Los Angelas Class sub is bigger than an airliner. It seems Fravor wasn't aware of this.

1598158691106.png



My guess is that a small blimp type balloon was let go from the USS Louisville when Fravor intercepted. The high rate of altitude ascent from the balloon and possibly change of direction once it hit a different air stream at altitude confused Fravor enough to miss judge the speed a bit.
And as per the leaked first report, he then lost it in Haze. Reading the article about Project Nemesis, it could be that it was a radar spoofing type balloon

Reference Project Nemesis: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...e-capability-will-change-naval-combat-forever

Given both the Tic Tac and Gimbal incidents involved training excersizes with new radar systems. My guess is the US were testing their Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities out to see how much they could fool the new radar systems in use. The radar tracks witnessed in both events would be explained by this, along with the visual contacts. Project Nemesis uses drone fleets and Ballooons and Subs etc to create false radar signals. As it utilises real assets, there are visual aspects. Funny enough , two of the assets it uses are drones and Balloons, coincidentally the objects named in Elizondo's request for the Gimbal and Tic Tac footage. And also coincidentally in the case of the Gimbal video, what the WSO said the object was. ie "It is a f...g drone bro". Also later saying that they had tracks of a whole fleet of the objects
 
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gtoffo

Member
Interesting.

However many issues with the stinger theory in my mind:

  • The document you report proposes stinger training in 2008. That's 4 years after the incident.
  • A stinger flies at mach 2.5 for only a short distance (flight time of seconds) and starting from the ground (fixed point) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger all this is inconsistent with the behaviour observed and reported by the witnesses.
  • The radar would be able to distinguish a missile very easily. It's what it's made for.
  • They would not be shooting missiles in the direction of friendly units
 

div

New Member
Interesting.

However many issues with the stinger theory in my mind:

  • The document you report proposes stinger training in 2008. That's 4 years after the incident.
  • A stinger flies at mach 2.5 for only a short distance (flight time of seconds) and starting from the ground (fixed point) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger all this is inconsistent with the behaviour observed and reported by the witnesses.
  • The radar would be able to distinguish a missile very easily. It's what it's made for.
  • They would not be shooting missiles in the direction of friendly units
i didn't say tictacs were stinger missiles, i said tictac were target drones for those missiles, they fly at observed speed and altitude and they jam radar.
and stinger missiles range is 5 miles meaning that anything that flew further than 5 miles from shore, won't be destroyed by it and would end up spotted on radar
 

gtoffo

Member
i didn't say tictacs were stinger missiles, i said tictac were target drones for those missiles, they fly at observed speed and altitude and they jam radar.
and stinger missiles range is 5 miles meaning that anything that flew further than 5 miles from shore, won't be destroyed by it and would end up spotted on radar
Sorry for the confusion. My second and third point should be read as: why didn't the Princeton spot the stingers flying? If so many targets got lost it would be a pretty big training event and it should be clearly visible on the Princeton's radar over several days. There would be no doubts on the origin of the radar tracks at that point as the SPY1B would track the stingers flying, the destroyed targets and the remaining targets. Not selectively track only surviving targets.

Those are just some of the primary problems with this theory. There are several others so I think it is a poor fit unfortunately (Usually targets are expensive and made to be tracked/destroyed. Why would they leave so many wandering around? The movements reported are not consistent with balloons (large altitude and speed changes) etc.).
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
The movements reported are not consistent with balloons (large altitude and speed changes) etc.).
You don't have to explain all the events with a single cause. Ballons could be the initial drifting targets. Maybe even what Fravor saw (assuming he misjudged its position, giving it the illusion of greater motion). Then the large altitude and speed changes could be radar glitches. The FLIR1 video could be an unrelated aircraft, maybe even outside the area.
 

div

New Member
Sorry for the confusion. My second and third point should be read as: why didn't the Princeton spot the stingers flying? If so many targets got lost it would be a pretty big training event and it should be clearly visible on the Princeton's radar over several days. There would be no doubts on the origin of the radar tracks at that point as the SPY1B would track the stingers flying, the destroyed targets and the remaining targets. Not selectively track only surviving targets.

Those are just some of the primary problems with this theory. There are several others so I think it is a poor fit unfortunately (Usually targets are expensive and made to be tracked/destroyed. Why would they leave so many wandering around? The movements reported are not consistent with balloons (large altitude and speed changes) etc.).
would it even be possible for it to track stinger rockets at 100+ miles away? I thought the more distance there is, the higher target should be to be seen (or no?)
and yes, you are right, there are multiple holes in this whole theory.
 

gtoffo

Member
would it even be possible for it to track stinger rockets at 100+ miles away? I thought the more distance there is, the higher target should be to be seen (or no?)
and yes, you are right, there are multiple holes in this whole theory.
Yes the curvature of the earth limits the range of a radar system over the ground. This is one reason why the NAVY augments coverage with AWACS. There are a lot of variables here such as the stingers trajectory, distance from Princeton (or the AWACS in the air), timing of the exercise etc.

Bear in mind targets and missiles are expensive equipment. They are deployed with the intention of being used appropriately. They wouldn't just pop a whole bunch of targets in the air and have a group of soldiers firing at will to see how many they can hit. One target may survive in case of a failure but it wouldn't be the most likely scenario.

On the whole I think it would be unlikely that the Navy would not have reached such a conclusion following an investigation. This happened across multiple days so it would have been easy to identify the source if such a large scale training was taking place (and we have no proof of any training taking place at the moment except the Nimitz's). Mixing aircraft training with live fire exercises is not a very smart idea so the chances are pretty low unless they were at extreme ranges.
 
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