Jellyfish UFO from TMZ's 'UFO Revolution'

jackfrostvc said:
Thinks it's a balloon
Click to expand...

Looks very like this.....so I don't know how Corbell can possibly say it 'can't' be balloons..

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/man-takes-flight-8000-feet-up-in-the-air-using-100-helium-balloons/

ball.jpg
 
Calter said:
It "descends stiff into the water" and then after 17 minutes it "shoots off at 45 degrees".
Click to expand...
I wonder if this is the same sort of analysis that led these same people to think the Aguadilla UFO video shows a transmedium craft going in an out of water at high speed.

jackfrostvc said:
This guy who says he is a veteran, and seems to be familiar with the systems. Thinks it's a balloon in this short video he posted on twitter
Click to expand...
Imagine how much easier it would be for the public (and even other pilots and people in the military), if the sightings and sensor captures of other balloons that this guy refers to were better catalogued and made available for educational purposes. Part of the difficulty is just finding footage replicating the conditions people are talking about.

"here's a few thousand videos of different types and configurations of balloons in different weather conditions, different zoom levels, different altitudes from surface to 40K ft, over both land and water, different viewer angles, on both optical and thermal cameras"

"same as above but with birds and bats"

I feel like this data surely exists, or did exist at various points in bits in pieces scattered across all the storage drives across the government and private sector, but was deleted / recorded over because there was not a sufficient effort to retain useful example footage of things like weird glitches or edge cases that can potentially confuse future users, because it wasn't seen as useful at the time. Maybe this is one thing AI can actually help with, crawling through video clips, adding keyword labels, and grouping similar ones together.
 
jackfrostvc said:
Same guy I think, posted these videos . One is mylar balloons he films and the other he suspects was balloons I think

www.tiktok.com/@porcorosso702/video/7325135843138506015

www.tiktok.com/@porcorosso702/video/7325288654375570719
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He's slightly hamstrung himself by filming in non-laminar air-currents, that back wall is clearly setting up eddies that shake his baloons around a bit. Had his demonstration been performed in a similar environment to the original, it would have looked much more like the original.
 
tobigtofool said:
Great video! Except I don't think I agree there are no turbulent forces acting on the UAP. The flag in the UAP video is moving quite a bit (We can see this extremely clearly btw, is the video focused on the ground, not the UAP?).

In your real life example it it shows that the dangling banner of you balloons that imitates streamers is moving a lot.

If we take the banner out, and just look at the weighted object that is holding the balloons in place, it creates the classic V shape of something holding balloons in place. (A)

The UAP (B) has more of a rectangle shape... certainly a strange one.

(C) is what I thought it could be made up of, maybe it's some weird makeshift surveillance drone? And like, under the ballons are cameras on a short tether, creating a taught non moving shape?
View attachment 65300
That's my best guess at what it could be, if it were balloons I don't see how it would make that shape unless it had streamers, which I think we'd see changing shape in the video.
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Let's sort things out.

-The tethered flag in the OP video flaps because...
...the flapping of a 'flag' is not because of the turbulence in the wind, or the presence of the flagpole," says Zhang. "It [the flapping] is intrinsically embedded in the system, as a result of the inertia dynamics of the flag interacting with the surrounding fluid flow."
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The banner hanging below the balloon cluster in this video...



Note that it flaps slightly when it is moving through the wind. For the same reason as the tethered flag. At that time, the banner is flapping
as a result of the inertia dynamics of the [banner] interacting with the surrounding fluid flow...
Click to expand...

But when is the banner below the South Africa balloon cluster moving through the wind? Only when the balloon cluster is ascending or descending. At that time the banner is being pulled through the air and it is
interacting with the surrounding fluid flow...
Click to expand...

Pay attention to when the whole rig is ascending or descending, or when it is moving level with the wind. When it is moving steadily with the wind... there is no fluid flow. The banner doesn't flap.

If we assume that the UAP in the OP video is a cluster of balloons moving with the wind, not through the wind, no part of the entire structure would be in a fluid flow. There would be no rustling or trailing.

So it is incorrect to compare the physics of the flapping flag and the UAP balloon cluster.

To be honest you aren't following the physics. Just your intuition.

This is the intuitive image of a a toy balloon in the wind...

orange-balloon.png


But it ain't right. This intuitive imagining comes from a common experience of what things look like when they are getting pulled through the air. An association in other words.

If you were holding a string in your hand, it would trail behind when you walk. It might also be "flapping." A common experience.

If you were holding the same string in your hand while you were in the basket of a hot air balloon moving with the wind... it would hang limply. Even if the hot air balloon were moving across the landscape pretty quickly. Ground speed. An uncommon experience.

That's the psychological aspect of this problem. System 1 thinking versus System 2 thinking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow#:~:text=Thinking, Fast and Slow is,more deliberative, and more logical.

System 1: Fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, unconscious. Examples (in order of complexity) of things system 1 can do:
determine that an object is at a greater distance than another
localize the source of a specific sound
complete the phrase "war and ..."
display disgust when seeing a gruesome image
solve 2+2=?
read text on a billboard
drive a car on an empty road
think of a good chess move (if you're a chess master)
understand simple sentences
associate the description 'quiet and structured person with an eye for details' with a specific job
Click to expand...

System 2: Slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, conscious.
Examples of things system 2 can do:
prepare yourself for the start of a sprint
direct your attention towards the clowns at the circus
direct your attention towards someone at a loud party
look for the woman with the grey hair
try to recognize a sound
sustain a faster-than-normal walking rate
determine the appropriateness of a particular behavior in a social setting
count the number of A's in a certain text
give someone your telephone number
park into a tight parking space
determine the price/quality ratio of two washing machines
determine the validity of a complex logical reasoning
solve 17 × 24
Click to expand...

That's what I'm seeing in the comments section of MW's video. People are (unconsciously) hanging on to the System 1 model of what they intuitively picture. In other words, the stuff hanging below the balloon cluster should be trialing behind, and/or the cluster should be rustling around because of wind resistance/turbulence.
 
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FatPhil said:
He's slightly hamstrung himself by filming in non-laminar air-currents, that back wall is clearly setting up eddies that shake his baloons around a bit. Had his demonstration been performed in a similar environment to the original, it would have looked much more like the original.
Click to expand...
Yes! I've pondered how you'd experimentally generate very close comparison images -- you'd pretty much need a drone pacing a free-floating balloon cluster at their equilibrium altitude (outdoors, of course, so you have more variation in the environmental radiation than gym walls, ceiling, and floors).

Kind of like this, where the string hangs straight down, though the single balloon wobbles a bit as he circles it:
 
FatPhil said:
He's slightly hamstrung himself by filming in non-laminar air-currents, that back wall is clearly setting up eddies that shake his baloons around a bit.
Click to expand...
He is filming a "jellyfish" balloon which appears to have flimsy Mylar streamers, very susceptible to tiny currents, whereas the OP object looks as if the dangling bits are more substantial.
 
jdog said:
Kind of like this, where the string hangs straight down, though the single balloon wobbles a bit as he circles it:
Click to expand...
I suspect it is still rising through the air a bit. Watching the whole of the video where he's flying around the balloon, it also seems to get hit by air pushed around by the drone a couple of times.
 
Since balloons exist all over I think it shouldn't take this long for us to find a 1:1 video that looks almost identical to this one.

Traveling in a constant vector without rotating or flapping for the duration seeming to face the direction of travel like it's controlled flight. (Just because its going in a straight line doesn't mean its not controlled to face a direction like a hot air or weather balloon is)

Also the explanation for the wacky stick and gillysuit look of it? Why does it look lie a coral reef and not spheres? Or even like a recognizable shape?

Usually when we see a balloon we find "THE" balloon it is in the first 48 hrs.

Z.W. Wolf said:
Pay attention to when the whole rig is ascending or descending, or when it is moving level with the wind. When it is moving steadily with the wind... there is no fluid flow. The banner doesn't flap.
Click to expand...

If you give me a timecode ill circle where it is flapping, I think I can see movement in every shot. Those shot are super short too.

But that UAP stays locked in place! (its a lot blurrier though, and could be just luck/coinkidink) But I think we should be able to produce many videos to support that type of linear movement without rotations or movement from wind if it is just a bunch of balloons in the wind.

Just found this! Maybe a good long shot of david blayne flying around will convince me! Also never new he did this.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwzvNAAqH3g
 
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Eburacum said:
This is a bunch of balloons, not a single balloon. Some, or many, of these balloons appear to be oddly-shaped novelty balloons as well. That makes matching the shape effectively impossible.
Click to expand...

I meant specifically it should be even easier to find if its just a bunch of balloons, at least 1 shape that makes me go. Yea, that is similar. Bunches of balloons are everywhere.

It really does look like a googly eyed muppet, more than a bunch of balloons IMO

(I hate debunking ufos because I want them to be real but I'm here for the truth and this is pretty ghoulish)


squidward.gif
 
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tobigtofool said:
meant specifically it should be even easier to find if its just a bunch of balloons, at least 1 shape that makes me go. Yea, that is similar. Bunches of balloons are everywhere.
Click to expand...
@Eburacum already posted them, #35 and #42. Please read the whole thread and don't make people keep repeating themselves.
IMG_0466.png
 
Ann K said:
@Eburacum already posted them, #35 and #42. Please read the whole thread and don't make people keep repeating themselves.
View attachment 65461
Click to expand...
It's noteworthy that these balloon letters have an interesting property where the volume does not increase enough in ratio to the surface area or material that makes up the balloon. The 16 inch tall ones will not float even when filled with helium, so they are sold as "air fill only" so money isn't wasted on the helium to fill them. They are manufactured between 16 to 40 inches tall. I've seen 16 inch, ~24, ~34 and 40 inch at the tallest. Think of them like font sizes.

So basically, the small letters are air-filled and will weigh the balloon down from floating, because it's cheaper than filling them with helium which wouldn't float anyways.

Also, if those dangly bits are made up of letter balloons, then there's a minimum and maximum size the entire structure can be because the letters are only mass produced in certain sizes, up to 40-inches tall and as small as 16-inches tall.
 
CrunchBunk said:
Also, if those dangly bits are made up of letter balloons, then there's a minimum and maximum size the entire structure can be because the letters are only mass produced in certain sizes, up to 40-inches tall and as small as 16-inches tall.
Click to expand...
Can you provide a source for that? Just for completeness's sake.
 
We know the balloon cluster is 2 metres wide or smaller, depending on its distance from the camera. The smaller letter balloons would probably fit the bill.
 
If these are metallized mylar balloons, should we expect them to be reflecting the cold of the sky more strongly? Also these objects appear to be more translucent as apparent when they pass in front of any hot, black features in the background. Its been demonstrated earlier in this thread that Mylar balloons are mostly reflective and not translucent like latex balloons tend to be.

For comparison in the video of the object to the south, it has a strong black thermal signature (in that video cold is black) which suggests the object is reflecting the cold night sky.
 
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Im confident if the dangling bits were delicate little balloon things like that, we'd see them moving.

Large, deflated, balloons hanging below other large balloons in giant bunch/bundle like the vendor in disneyland, I'd believe. But small bunch of party balloons will not convince me.

The example of those small mylar balloons would move a lot more like that figure 8 balloon than the footage in the video.

The banner balloon people use as an example in micks video is like 80 feet tall so wouldn't move anything like something that is 2 meters.

To use that as a comparison is a little misleading unless the balloons were looking at are large in scale too.
 
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sigmops said:
If these are metallized mylar balloons, should we expect them to be reflecting the cold of the sky more strongly? Also these objects appear to be more translucent as apparent when they pass in front of any hot, black features in the background. Its been demonstrated earlier in this thread that Mylar balloons are mostly reflective and not translucent like latex balloons tend to be.

For comparison in the video of the object to the south, it has a strong black thermal signature (in that video cold is black) which suggests the object is reflecting the cold night sky.
Click to expand...

IR is not that straight forward I am afraid, as the emittance of object also matters (emissivity), and also reflectance in the IR range by the object itself.
 
Ravi said:
the emittance of object also matters (emissivity)
Click to expand...
Are you saying that the objects in question are emitting a thermal signature significantly deviating from ambient?

For clarity i was referencing two videos that were posted earlier in this thread, and they can be found at the bottom of this comment.

These showcase the thermal reflectivity of metalized mylar vs the relative translucency of latex.

I think there is a significant difference in thermal appearance of the object from the second video, that looks to the south, compared to the object(s) in the video of this thread. And am wondering: if the southern object is suggestive of mylar balloons reflectivity of a cold sky, is it safe to assume the objects in this video to also be mylar despite their lack of a similar thermal signature


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvPIrouUCD4



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snwqUpQ6oSE
 
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Eburacum said:
A random collection of Eid balloons might explain the strange shape.
This might just be a curious accident, a random escape of drifting balloons, or a deliberate hoax.
I'm not convinced by my own graphic here, but it doesn't seem entirely impossible.

View attachment 65020
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If I've overlooked it, my apologies, but do we have an appropriate date this video was taken, and has anyone looked for a correlation between the date of the video and the date of Eid? (Best I could find for the video date was Corbell's claim of Oct 2018.)

External Quote:
Eid-ul-Adha, which is known as the 'festival of sacrifice', is the second most important festival in the Muslim calendar. Eid-ul-Adha is celebrated as a public holiday in Muslim countries. Eid-ul-Adha for the year 2018 will be celebrated on August 22.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/eid...-important-dates-all-you-need-to-know-1899278

Not to say Eid balloons couldn't have been available any time of the year, but I think it's reasonable to conclude the closer the two dates were together, the higher the probability there could have been Eid balloons as pictured still around. A Western analogy would be you're more likely to still find/see Christmas balloons in Jan/Feb than in June/July.

So in this case, if Eid was celebrated on 22 Aug, and the video taken in Oct, that's a span of 8-12 weeks.....assuming the balloons would have been readily available 1 Aug and the video was taken either on 1 Oct (best case) or 31 October (worst case.)

Not a slam dunk obviously, but in the ballpark.
 
2 meters seems totally off from what I see, where do we get that metric from?

I would say in the videos it looks to me more like 8 or 10 meters in size.

In what way can we assure that we know it's position in the sky relative to the camera, and its size/speed?

https://www.metabunk.org/data/video/64/64302-371e49eb085def553d25a43477c56b04.mp4

I can see no discernable shapes in there that look like balloons if it was just 2 meters, but if they were too small to make out because it was a more like 10 meter wide bunch that makes more sense.
 
tobigtofool said:
2 meters seems totally off from what I see, where do we get that metric from?

I would say in the videos it looks to me more like 8 or 10 meters in size.

In what way can we assure that we know it's position in the sky relative to the camera, and its size/speed?

https://www.metabunk.org/data/video/64/64302-371e49eb085def553d25a43477c56b04.mp4

I can see no discernable shapes in there that look like balloons if it was just 2 meters, but if they were too small to make out because it was a more like 10 meter wide bunch that makes more sense.
Click to expand...
Who are you responding to? Please use the Reply button.
 
FWIW, there are two Eids in Islam.

External Quote:
Eid al-Fitr occurs at the end of Ramadan. After an entire month of fasting and extra prayer, Muslims are sad to bid Ramadan and its spiritual atmosphere good-bye, but also excited to celebrate their efforts with a holiday.

Eid al-Adha coincides with the Hajj pilgrimage...
Source: https://eid.day/

Since Islam uses a lunar calendar, the dates shift so for different years there would be different dates.
 
tobigtofool said:
2 meters seems totally off from what I see, where do we get that metric from?

I would say in the videos it looks to me more like 8 or 10 meters in size.

In what way can we assure that we know it's position in the sky relative to the camera, and its size/speed?

https://www.metabunk.org/data/video/64/64302-371e49eb085def553d25a43477c56b04.mp4

I can see no discernable shapes in there that look like balloons if it was just 2 meters, but if they were too small to make out because it was a more like 10 meter wide bunch that makes more sense.
Click to expand...
We're looking down on the unknown object. If we want to assume maximum size, we assume the furthest possible distance from the camera. If it's just barely scraping the rooftops, then it's about a door frame in height (see 0:22 in the video you link here). 2 meters is about the upper end of its possible size.
 
Harabeck said:
We're looking down on the unknown object. If we want to assume maximum size, we assume the furthest possible distance from the camera. If it's just barely scraping the rooftops, then it's about a door frame in height (see 0:22 in the video you link here). 2 meters is about the upper end of its possible size.
Click to expand...

https://partysplendour.com.au/balloon-size-guide/

How big are we thinking in that case, each balloon might be?

How many balloons in the bundle?

Can we take into consideration the shapes we see in the footage, and use them as a guide to help identify this?

I just did and my math feels way off (16 small balloons side by side to make up 200cm resulting in hundreds of small balloons to make up the mass of a 2 meter object?)

I did some mockups just to try to figure out what we're looking at

duckbo.gif


It looks like in the darker black and white sections there are some body shapes that look like htey could be balloons, let's say they are 2 balloons at 2 meters it'd be 2 3 foot balloons. Which would make the smaller balloon shapes about the size of regular balloons.

But I think I am being generous with the shapes, there are at least 60% of the overall body of the thing that I think are non-discernable.
 
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tobigtofool said:
https://partysplendour.com.au/balloon-size-guide/

How big are we thinking in that case, each balloon might be?

How many balloons in the bundle?

Can we take into consideration the shapes we see in the footage, and use them as a guide to help identify this?

I just did and my math feels way off (16 small balloons side by side to make up 200cm resulting in hundreds of small balloons to make up the mass of a 2 meter object?)

I did some mockups just to try to figure out what we're looking at

It looks like in the darker black and white sections there are some body shapes that look like htey could be balloons, let's say they are 2 balloons at 2 meters it'd be 2 3 foot balloons. Which would make the smaller balloon shapes about the size of regular balloons.

But I think I am being generous with the shapes, there are at least 60% of the overall body of the thing that I think are non-discernable.
Click to expand...
to me the lower right "leg" looks like it hads something wrapped around it, I had thought it was tinsel when I suspected this might be a Christmas or New Year Balloon. does anyone else see that...?

 
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JMartJr said:
FWIW, there are two Eids in Islam.

External Quote:
Eid al-Fitr occurs at the end of Ramadan. After an entire month of fasting and extra prayer, Muslims are sad to bid Ramadan and its spiritual atmosphere good-bye, but also excited to celebrate their efforts with a holiday.

Eid al-Adha coincides with the Hajj pilgrimage...
Source: https://eid.day/

Since Islam uses a lunar calendar, the dates shift so for different years there would be different dates.
Click to expand...
You didn't use the reply button, but I assume this was in response to my post #466. And yes, I also found references explaining two Eids and lunar calendars etc. I looked at both (Eid al-Fitr was mid May-mid June 2018), but went with Eid-al-Adha in my thought process because my source (as posted in #466) called Eid-ul-Adha the "second most important festival in the Muslim calendar." I also found several other sources that called it "one of" the most important festivals.

I tried to find a source that would tell me which of those two holidays/festivals would be more likely to be celebrated with specialized balloons as shown in @Eburacum post #42 of this thread. No luck. Rightly or wrongly, I drew an analogy between Christian holidays where Christmas is the second most important holiday (Easter is first) in the Christian faith. I've seen lots of Christmas balloons, but can't recall ever seeing balloons for lesser Christian holidays such as Epiphany, Pentecost, All Saints' Day, etc. That's why I chose Eid-al-Adha to look at, and did so before looking at dates in 2018.

If the analogy is wrong, so be it. What we do know is one of the two "Eid" holidays happened to roughly coincide (within several weeks) with Corbell's claimed date of the video. As I said, that isn't a slam dunk, but it's in the ballpark. Conversely, the May-June 2018 dates of the second "Eid" wouldn't rule out balloons being available (or left over I suppose) in Oct.
 
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tobigtofool said:
2 meters seems totally off from what I see, where do we get that metric from?

I would say in the videos it looks to me more like 8 or 10 meters in size.
Click to expand...
The largest an object in an image can be is the size of something it covers behind it. It cannot be larger than that.
2024-01-19_11-20-36.jpg


So here, compared to the pickup truck, it looks about 2 meters high, and under a meter wide. AT MOST. Likely it's half that size.
 
Arthur 33 said:
I think the biggest reason this probably is not a balloon is it's flight behavior. It appears to maintain a constant speed, appears to move horizontally, appears to not rotate or wobble in the wind. This is NOT typical behavior of balloons.
Click to expand...
We have discussed this at length. A balloon that it not rising or falling (it has found an equilibrium) is just going to go along with the wind. If that wind isn't turbulent, there is no reason the balloon should appear to rotate or wobble. Here's an example I linked earlier showing a balloon with dangly arms and legs appear very still in the air:

 
Mick West said:
The largest an object in an image can be is the size of something it covers behind it. It cannot be larger than that.

So here, compared to the pickup truck, it looks about 2 meters high, and under a meter wide. AT MOST. Likely it's half that size.
Click to expand...

Couldn't it be a smaller object closer to the camera?

closery2.gif
 
Arthur 33 said:
There is only like 5 seconds of continuous video. This is not very strong evidence. Show me a balloon/cluster video not wobbling in the wind that is longer than 5 sec and I may be persuaded.
Click to expand...

I agree it's not a slam dunk I really think if we had as clear footage of that as we do the UAP we'd see wobble.

The UAP looks more like me translating a 3D mesh in a straight line. It's like as rigid as can be.

However, if it were a smaller object, closer to the camera, not even moving through the air as fast as it'd have to if it were 2 meters, I'd believe it could just be going extremely slow, in that case, less chance of wobble.
 
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