Interesting articles about contrail research

skephu

Senior Member.
Thanks to the chemtrail theory, I got interested in the science of contrails, and I sometimes browse the latest articles on Google Scholar. So I thought a thread in which we report on the latest findings or interesting new articles could be useful.

I just found this one:

Bernhardt, J. and Carleton, A. M. (2015):
The impacts of long-lived jet contrail ‘outbreaks’ on surface station diurnal temperature range.
Int. J. Climatol.. doi: 10.1002/joc.4303
 

skephu

Senior Member.
Recently, a new method for contrail cirrus prediction has been developed. It's called CoCiP, and it is described in this paper:

Schumann, U:
A contrail cirrus prediction model
Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 543-580, 2012

Abstract:
Some of the interesting figures:

Contrail forming flight paths (cyan) for global traffic between 03:00–06:00 UTC 6 June 2006. Contrails existing at 06:00 UTC that day are identified by red lines. Those parts of the tracks where these contrails originated are shown in black

Optical depth of contrail cover:
 

skephu

Senior Member.
A more recent conference paper also shows the limitations of the CoCiP contrail prediction method:

Schumann U et al.:
Contrail Cirrus Forecasts for the ML-CIRRUS Experiment and Some Comparison Results

Abstract:
 

Jay Reynolds

Senior Member.
Ulrich Schumann I had some email conversations with him nearly 15 years ago when I was doing background work trying to understand contrail physics. He has that much experience with the "chemtrails" hoax. Not quite as cool as Hermann Mannstein, though.
hermann mannstein.jpg
 

Henk001

Senior Member.
Still under review, but with a refreshing new take on the relation between contrails and climate change: instead of looking at the effect of contrails on climate, they model the effect of climate change on the occurrence of contrails untill the end of the 21st century:http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/6/317/2015/esdd-6-317-2015.html
 

skephu

Senior Member.
This is an old paper from 1971 which presents some observations pointing to the possibility that contrails may influence precipitation patterns by ice crystals from contrails falling into lower clouds and seeding them. I don't really know what more recent research has revealed about this, but it is known that ice crystals from contrails can grow as big as 2 mm in diameter and fall out of the contrail into lower clouds.

Dingle, AN: Man-Made Climatic Changes: Seeding by Contrails
Science 173.3995 (1971): 461-462.
 

skephu

Senior Member.
An interesting paper about how contrails change the hydrological cycle in the atmosphere:

Schumann, U., Penner, J. E., Chen, Y., Zhou, C., & Graf, K. (2015). Dehydration effects from contrails in a coupled contrail–climate model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15(19), 11179-11199.
PDF

It's interesting and counter-intuitive that the reduction in relative humidity causes longer-lived contrails. I think this is because in the drier air, ice particles grow slower, remain smaller, and therefore fall slower as well. But I guess this only applies if the RHi still remains above 100%.

The paper also states:
 

Marin B

Active Member
This isn't recent, but it might be useful since it cites a lot of early papers and so provides somewhat of a review on the study of contrails.

James Q. DeGrand ,Andrew M. Carleton ,David J. Travis, and Peter J. Lamb: A Satellite-Based Climatic Description of Jet Aircraft Contrails and Associations with Atmospheric Conditions, 1977–79. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 39, 1434–1459 (2000)

Here's another from 2000, that is interesting because it has a world map showing contrail coverage in 1992 and predicted coverage for 2050:
Richard Miake-Lye, Ian Waltz, David Fahey, Howard Sesoky, and Chowen Wey: Aviation and the Changing Climate. Aerospace America, Sept. 2000, p 35-39.
 

Henk001

Senior Member.
There are a number of articles that deal with mitigating the climate impact of contrail cirrus or cirrus clouds in general. Two interesting aspects I would like to put forward.
1. Contrary to the chemtrail belief, cirrus, and contrail cirrus in particular, have a warming effect, not cooling. So the idea of chemtrails as a way of cooling the warming earth is nonsense.
2. Cloud seeding of cirrus clouds is proposed in a number of articles to reduce the warming effect of (contrail) cirrus. Which means that, ironically, climate-engineering is proposed to reduce the effect of contrails (and cirrus in general).
A few examples:
Storelvmo et al: Cirrus cloud seeding has potential to cool climate
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054201/full (GRL 2013)
Mitchell&Finnegan: Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045102/fulltext/#erl314272s4(ERL 2009)
Kärcher: The importance of contrail ice formation for mitigating the climate impact of aviation
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024696/full (JGR 2016)
 
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