DHS "Rubber Duck" Footage

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5Q82LsMPjQ


2021-10-06_16-58-53.jpg

A 1080p50 video. Location and time on screen identifies it as taken from "IRONS12"
2021-10-06_17-08-23.jpg

Which is this plane:
2021-10-06_17-03-59.jpg
(Note the camera)

video description
Dave Falch video here, with unredacted coordinates.

It looks to me like a bunch of mylar balloons - possibly drug smuggling. The plane is flying around it, giving it both parallax motion, and possibly the appearance of changes in direction. Compare with:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYqVa59VRRc
 
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dimebag2

Active Member
This thing does not go in a straight trajectory right ? The heading on the top right keeps changing, like if it's going in circles. It'd be nice to see a reconstruction of the plane and object trajectories, since we have the exact coordinates and time.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
The heading on the top right keeps changing, like if it's going in circles.
The Western part of the flight track looks like a ball of yarn, if that matches the sighting it's kinda obvious that the UAP doesn't move much.
SmartSelect_20211007-111748_Samsung Internet.jpg
 

dimebag2

Active Member
Not sure it's there, or at least not during the whole flight. Here are the positions of the plane at mark 9'01 and 9'09, using the top left values from Dave Falch's video (UAP NY masked the coordinates on his) :
Google Earth.PNG

It's close to Arivaca, not really in the area of the ball of yarn.
 

jhunsley

New Member
What's a genuine UAP? Once it's identified does it become a phoney UAP or a genuine IAP?

looks like a lot of fuss over a balloon or bunch of balloons to me.
 

flarkey

Active Member
What's a genuine UAP?

Thats a good question. When UFO people say a 'genuine UAP' (Unidentified Aerial Pheonomena) I think they generally mean "an object that appears in earth's atmosphere that is of unknown origin and uses unknown methods of lift and propulsion". And when they say unknown in that sentence I think it is more 'cannot be explained using our current understanding of the universe and physics" rather than 'its something we know, but we just cat explain it yet".

However, and this is where it gets blurry .... others use the term "Unidentified Aerial Pheonomena" to relate to any object in the atmosphere that has not been conclusively identified yet, including those of prosaic nature. Unfortunaetly this will result in many everyday objects being classsed as extraordinary becasue they cannot be identified due to the nature of, or the lack of, information data we have about the object (ie, in Mick West's Low Information Zone). The Aguadilla UFO is a great example of this. The video resolution is so poor that it is difficult to conclusively say what the object is (chinese lantern or balloon), so it is still technically a UAP. But, by analysing the video we can show that its method of lift is likely due to it being lighter-than-air and its method of propulsion is being blown by the wind. So its not a "genuine UAP".

Hashtag confused emoji.
 

Occam’sLawyer

New Member
It looks to me like a bunch of mylar balloons - possibly drug smuggling. The plane is flying around it, giving it both parallax motion, and possibly the appearance of changes in direction.
Mylar balloons or a modified drone carrying drugs? The preponderance of evidence here suggest man made debris (balloon) or drone.
 
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Rory

Senior Member.
I've watched the video and it's very obviously a 200mph man-size flying rubber duck. bearyep20x20.png

Can we please have the next UAP tracking airplane or drone or whatever actually approach the object instead of just following it from a distance?

Or do those videos not get released?
 

JMartJr

Senior Member
This thing does not go in a straight trajectory right ? The heading on the top right keeps changing, like if it's going in circles. It'd be nice to see a reconstruction of the plane and object trajectories, since we have the exact coordinates and time.
I think the plane is circling the object, not sure if the object maneuvers at all.

The Western part of the flight track looks like a ball of yarn, if that matches the sighting it's kinda obvious that the UAP doesn't move much.
SmartSelect_20211007-111748_Samsung Internet.jpg
With the speed and heading of the plane on the display, somebody with some Mad Geometry Skills and a love for puzzles could reconstruct the shape of flight path of the plane during the sighting, and see which bit matches the image Mick posted. I'd suspect the ball of yarn will be in mix, as the plane seems to circle the object repeatedly, sometimes off to one side, sometimes looking almost straight down on it, but there also seem to be some stretches where the plane is not circling, or at least not as tightly.

>>>Balloon or drone?
Does the time not tend to suggest it is not a drone? We see it flying for around 40 minutes, which may not be all of its flight. That seems a long time.

>>>Modified balloon for drug smuggling
Interesting, would the "duck head" be the payload? If so, why would it generally be above the balloon in the imagery? But if the thing doing the toting is the smaller head, and the body is the payload, then that tends to sound more like a drone again, I guess.

Edited for an irritating typo.
 

flarkey

Active Member
With the speed and heading of the plane on the display, somebody with some Mad Geometry Skills and a love for puzzles could reconstruct the shape of flight path of the plane during the sighting,

I've done this a few times, it is quite fun and not as hard as you'd think . the key thing is the lines of sight from the camera. if they all converge on one spot or in a line you can then be confident that the object isnt moving very much.
 

Rory

Senior Member.
Does the time not tend to suggest it is not a drone?

Checking out "drone longest flying time" for the kinds of drones the average person might be 30 minutes seems about the limit, with the longest I saw in a quick search 34 minutes.

That was for a $700 drone though; this blog post says that:


So probably they fly for longer.

(The picture at the top of the post, btw, isn't of a drug smuggling drone but actually taken from a story about a proposal to use drones to deliver legal marijuana in California by.)
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
it's very obviously a 200mph man-size flying rubber duck. bearyep20x20.png

Can we please have the next UAP tracking airplane or drone or whatever actually approach the object instead of just following it from a distance?

if you look closer you'll see it's actually a swan. and swans attack people, that's probably why they were afraid to go closer.
 

DavidB66

Active Member
Idly wondering how one could best smuggle drugs using a balloon(s). (No practical motive, honest!) The obvious problem is that balloons go where the wind takes them, and a smuggler would not be able to control or predict this with much accuracy. A further problem is how to get the balloon, and/or the drugs, down to the ground when they reach the desired destination. Possible methods would be (a) to shoot it down (b) send up a drone to pop it, or (c) use remote control to trigger a self-destruct mechanism. I suspect balloons wouldn't be practical for smuggling except over short distances, e.g. just across the US-Mexico border, or to carry drugs over a prison wall. In WWII Japan sent up thousands of balloons carrying bombs or incendiaries to drift over the USA, with a timer to burst the balloon when it should be over the target area. But in that case the target was very large (most of a continent!) and the project had little effect anyway.
 

JMartJr

Senior Member
Capture18.JPG
I find a number of these circular reservoirs in the area between Vamori and San Miguel, the general area of the "ball of yarn" flight track. I have not yet found any along other parts of the flight track .
Capture18a_qm.JPG
This one is a decent match, but not definitively so to my eye.

This (coincidentally mildly duck shaped) water feature:
Capture17.JPG
From a few minutes earlier ought to be easier to match, I have not found it yet but since it's not about me and my personal glory I toss it out therefor anybody else who can spot it. If we could find it, and identify the circular lake wth confidence, the time and distance between them would give us a rough idea of speed of the object.
 

yoshy

New Member
There has been some discussion on reddit whether white is hot or cold in this video. I believe Falch said it was cold since the screen says "BH" for black hot. But since the water is black, would that indicate it's the other way around?
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
With the speed and heading of the plane on the display, somebody with some Mad Geometry Skills and a love for puzzles could reconstruct the shape of flight path of the plane during the sighting, and see which bit matches the image Mick posted.
The raw flight tracking data should have times and coordinates.
What I don't know is who can access it; in January 2020, FR24 publicly posted the data for the Kobe Bryant crash flight, but that was obviously a special occasion.
 

Easy Muffin

Active Member
Regarding the bold part, I take it the assumption is that the speed in the top right corner is supposed to be the speed of the object? Because I find it more likely that that speed is merely the speed at which the operator pans the camera across the ground -- it's got nothing to do with the flying object.

See for example this promotional video of a similar SAFIRE system:
At around :45 it pans over the slopes of Mount Vesuvius. There's no aerial target there, only the mountain, and yet it shows 'target speeds' in excess of 1000 kph as the camera pans around. Similar thing with the beachfront view that comes next. You can see the speed change according to how fast the camera movement is, both in this video and the one with the UAP. There's nothing erratic about the the object's movement, it just means that the operator isn't panning steadily.

Also look at the elevation figure in the UAP vid. It's around 3800 ft which is simply the terrain elevation. Which is to say that the system is not locked on to a target.
 

flarkey

Active Member
Regarding the bold part, I take it the assumption is that the speed in the top right corner is supposed to be the speed of the object? Because I find it more likely that that speed is merely the speed at which the operator pans the camera across the ground -- it's got nothing to do with the flying object.
This is correct. The co-ords at the top right indicate where the crosshairs are over the ground and they refresh every second or so. The camera just takes the distance between two sets of coords, which are taken one second apart and then does a simple speed = distance / time calculation.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I extracted the coordinates every 10 seconds from the Falch segment.

2021-10-07_09-55-47.jpg

So very similar to the Aguadilla footage.
 

Attachments

  • Rubberduck Frame Data.kmz
    972 bytes · Views: 76
  • RubberDuck.csv
    753 bytes · Views: 65

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
There has been some discussion on reddit whether white is hot or cold in this video. I believe Falch said it was cold since the screen says "BH" for black hot. But since the water is black, would that indicate it's the other way around?
I'm not sure what you are looking at, but it's at night, when water is often warmer than the surrounding ground (it retains heat better)
 

Easy Muffin

Active Member
This is correct. The co-ords at the top right indicate where the crosshairs are over the ground and they refresh every second or so. The camera just takes the distance between two sets of coords, which are taken one second apart and then does a simple speed = distance / time calculation.
Thanks, that makes sense. Might very well just be something like a balloon then. The Google Earth data from four posts up would suggest a much lower speed, not unlike something floating along in the wind.
 

flarkey

Active Member
I extracted the coordinates every 10 seconds from the Falch segment.

So very similar to the Aguadilla footage.
Perfect. Thanks.

Looks like the lines of sight converge on one point 31.515832°N -111.439852°E at an alt of 2524m

Screen Shot 2021-10-07 at 18.44.41.png
 
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yoshy

New Member
I'm not sure what you are looking at, but it's at night, when water is often warmer than the surrounding ground (it retains heat better)

You can see examples in JMartJr 's post above. But water being warmer at night would explain it
 

dimebag2

Active Member
Could somebody explain what the angle in the upper right corner of the video means ? The HDG value. It is the heading of the camera movement right ? It's changing all the time because the plane and camera are circling around the object, not because the object is going into circles, correct ?
 

flarkey

Active Member
Could somebody explain what the angle in the upper right corner of the video means ? The HDG value. It is the heading of the camera movement right ? It's changing all the time because the plane and camera are circling around the object, not because the object is going into circles, correct.
HDG top left is the aircraft heading. HDG top right is the bearing from aircraft to target.
 

Easy Muffin

Active Member
HDG top left is the aircraft heading. HDG top right is the bearing from aircraft to target.
The bearing is in the top centre I believe?

Looking at the screen from the first post


top left - aircraft data
top right - 'target' data
top centre - 'target' bearing
bottom centre - FLIR camera position relative to aircraft

In this picture,
the plane is on a heading of 45°,
the 'target' heading is calculated from the current and most recent coordinates akin to the speed calculation (i.e. it was position X, it's now position Y, the heading is the path one would need to take to get from X to Y),
the camera is looking 273° relative to the plane (0° presumably being straight ahead, 180° behind etc, i.e. it's pointing somewhere around the plane's 9 o'clock position),
and the bearing is 321°.

The geometry works out almost perfectly - the camera is pointing at 273° + the plane's 45° = 318°. Not sure why the bearing is off by 3 degs, maybe just some sensor inaccuracies.

BTW, the camera barely moves in the 60 seconds we got. It goes from 268° at 09:00:07 to 276 at 09:01:06. The plane flies in a lazy circle through 105° during that time and likewise the 'target' heading changes by a similar amount, since it's essentially simply the opposite side of that circle (it changes by 97°, which is 105° minus 8° of camera movement).

So there's not really anything erroneous about anyone's movements here. Just a plane circling and pointing its camera at a slow moving object.
 
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taurusclover21

New Member
This is correct. The co-ords at the top right indicate where the crosshairs are over the ground and they refresh every second or so. The camera just takes the distance between two sets of coords, which are taken one second apart and then does a simple speed = distance / time calculation.
So it's the object's apparent speed?
 
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