Coronavirus Statistics: Cases, Mortality, vs. Flu

[Alexandria Nick]

Something like a quarter of all Italians smoke too. I wonder if that skews older, compounding things.

 

[deirdre]

But it isn't when you're comparing it to another disease that's in the millions.

it is when you are talking statistics. 135,000 is a good pool.

my comment was specifically about 'why fatality seems higher in Lombardy' then say South Korea. The numbers we don't have are ages confirmed with virus in Lombardy and SKorea and America. etc.

Anyway, here is the link to the March 11 hearing. the question starts at 1:35:00. Fauchi's answer around 1:36:00

1:35:00 'how does covid compare' (to SARS, flu etc) is the question.
1:36:00 " the seasonal flu has a mortality of about 0.1% , the stated mortality overall of this from the data is about 3%, it first started off at 2 and now 3, i think if you count all the cases of minimally sympotmatic or asymptomatic infections that probably brings the mortality rate down to around 1% . which means it is 10times more lethal than the seasonal flu."

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/dr-fauci-warns-congress-coronavirus-outbreak-worse&start=4301

and im just adding this in because it was a question I had. ie. wondering how effective herd immunity from vaccines is. this has nothing to do with 'lethality', just adding it here so I don't lose the info.

1:14:00 Fauchi 5-10% of the population get the flu.

 

[frankywashere]

it is when you are talking statistics. 135,000 is a good pool.

my comment was specifically about 'why fatality seems higher in Lombardy' then say South Korea. The numbers we don't have are ages confirmed with virus in Lombardy and SKorea and America. etc.

Anyway, here is the link to the March 11 hearing. the question starts at 1:35:00. Fauchi's answer around 1:36:00

1:35:00 'how does covid compare' (to SARS, flu etc) is the question.
1:36:00 " the seasonal flu has a mortality of about 0.1% , the stated mortality overall of this from the data is about 3%, it first started off at 2 and now 3, i think if you count all the cases of minimally sympotmatic or asymptomatic infections that probably brings the mortality rate down to around 1% . which means it is 10times more lethal than the seasonal flu."

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/dr-fauci-warns-congress-coronavirus-outbreak-worse&start=4301

and im just adding this in because it was a question I had. ie. wondering how effective herd immunity from vaccines is. this has nothing to do with 'lethality', just adding it here so I don't lose the info.

1:14:00 Fauchi 5-10% of the population get the flu.

5-10% of 'which' population get the flu each year?

 

[frankywashere]

I don't understand why it's so hard to find the stats on how many people worldwide get influenza a year. Has anyone had any luck with this?

 

[Mick West]

5-10% of 'which' population get the flu each year?

The US population. It's very variable as some seasons are worse than others.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The burden of influenza disease in the United States can vary widely and is determined by a number of factors including the characteristics of circulating viruses, the timing of the season, how well the vaccine is working to protect against illness, and how many people got vaccinated. While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year.

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

That's more like 3% to 14%, but 5-10% is a good ballpark.

61,000 deaths out of 45 million illnesses is 0.14%

 

[deirdre]

how many people worldwide get influenza a year.

for World information you want the W.H.O website. (World Health Organization)

 

[Agent K]

That's more like 3% to 14%, but 5-10% is a good ballpark.

Some estimates count asymptomatic illness.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm
A 2018 CDC study published in Clinical Infectious Diseases looked at the percentage of the U.S. population who were sickened by flu using two different methods and compared the findings. Both methods had similar findings, which suggested that on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick from flu each season, with a range of between 3% and 11%, depending on the season.
The commonly cited 5% to 20% estimate was based on a study that examined both symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza illness, which means it also looked at people who may have had the flu but never knew it because they didn't have any symptoms. The 3% to 11% range is an estimate of the proportion of people who have symptomatic flu illness.

 

[derwoodii]

note this site says data has been hacked

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

We apologize for the temporary disservice that you may have experienced

. For about 20 minutes, our site showed clearly incorrect data due to a malicious act. We have investigated the issue and we're now implementing protective measures to prevent this from happening again. The other day we got hit with a big DDoS attack. Now this. We'll continue with our daily efforts and we'll not give up.

 

[derwoodii]

I had a guess last week at the infected number trajectory down in OZ,, its tracking pretty close to my assumptions was 70 souls by 9th March & its 350 today.. i really do hope im wrong with my the next 7 days rise..




message board i contribute too snip i wont link as needs subscription

most recent count in OZ posted 45 minute ago

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...ictions-come-into-effect-20200316-p54abx.html

Coronavirus updates LIVE: Australia death toll rises as travel restrictions come into effect

 

[Agent K]

More projections.

Projections based on CDC scenarios show a potentially vast toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die... 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation's medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.
...
Dr. Longini said the scenarios he helped the C.D.C. refine had not been publicly disclosed because there remained uncertainty about certain key aspects, including how much transmission could occur from people who showed no symptoms or had only mild ones.
...
The four scenarios have different parameters, which is why the projections range so widely. They variously assume that each person with the coronavirus would infect either two or three people; that the hospitalization rate would be either 3 percent or 12; and that either 1 percent or a quarter of a percent of people experiencing symptoms would die.
...
Even severe flu seasons stress the nation's hospitals to the point of setting up tents in parking lots and keeping people for days in emergency rooms. Coronavirus is likely to cause five to 10 times that burden of disease, said Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center... Dr. Lawler's calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.
...
"All U.S. cities and states have the natural experiment of the cities that have preceded us, namely the superb response of Singapore and Hong Kong," said Dr. Michael Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Harvard. Those countries implemented school closures, eliminated mass gatherings, required work from home, and rigorously decontaminated their public transportation and infrastructure. They also conducted widespread testing. They were able to "reduce an explosive epidemic to a steady state one," Dr. Callahan said.

Multiple experts say up to 70% of Americans could be infected with the coronavirus and 1 million could die if no treatment is found — so people over 60 should 'stay home unless it's critical'
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-150-million-americans-may-get-infected-2020-3
According to a panel of infectious-disease experts at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), the outbreak on US soil is only going to get worse. The panelists predicted that between 40 and 70% of Americans would become infected with the virus in the next 12 to 18 months, a Bay Area internist in attendance, Jordan Shlain, reported on Thursday.
After surpassing that threshold of infections, you can start to get herd immunity, the panelists added, according to Shlain.
Shlain used that prediction, and an assumed 1% mortality rate from the coronavirus, to work out an estimate of American deaths in the next year and a half — concluding that about 1.5 million Americans may die.
"The panelists did not disagree with our estimate," Shlain wrote on his LinkedIn. "This compares to seasonal flu's average of 50,000 Americans [dying] per year."
One member of the panel, Joshua Batson, wrote on Twitter that Shlain's "inaccurate notes were not reviewed, endorsed," and missing significant context. "In particular, the large % infected is not a forgone conclusion; coordinated action can now help," Batson wrote.
The UCSF panelists' predictions, as reported by Shlain, mirror those of other experts.
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told the "Deep Background" podcast on February 28 that the coronavirus could affect between 40 and 70% of the world's adult population — about 3 billion people. Lipsitch said "40% of adults getting infected" didn't mean 3 billion people would get severely ill or die. But it would mean that some proportion of them would have symptoms, and about 1 to 2% would die.
...
The UCSF panelists said that trying to contain the virus in the US "is basically futile." "Our containment efforts won't reduce the number who get infected in the US," they added.
With that in mind, they suggested "anyone over 60 stay at home unless it's critical." "We at UCSF are moving our 'at-risk' parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes" and not letting them out of the house, Shlain reported the panelists said.

In comparison, the CDC says that 808,129 people in the U.S. were hospitalized and 61,099 died of the flu in 2017-2018, the worst flu season in decades. CNN reported higher numbers in 2018, but the CDC's page was reviewed more recently in 2019.

 

[Mick West]

Comparisons to flu often contrast the yearly deaths due to flu with deaths so far from Coronavirus. This is very misleading, as it's the rate of increase in deaths that's really the problem. However, this direct comparison is starting to become relevant in Italy.

Yesterday, Italy reported an additional 368 coronavirus deaths in one 24 hour period. 368 deaths per day.

The observed deaths per day from flu, in Italy, is around 200-250 in flu season. (Over 65, which is most of the Coronavirus deaths)
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/flunews#mortalita

 

[Agent K]

Comparisons to flu often contrast the yearly deaths due to flu with deaths so far from Coronavirus. This is very misleading, as it's the rate of increase in deaths that's really the problem. However, this direct comparison is starting to become relevant in Italy.

Yesterday, Italy reported an additional 368 coronavirus deaths in one 24 hour period. 368 deaths per day.

The observed deaths per day from flu, in Italy, is around 200-250 in flu season. (Over 65, which is most of the Coronavirus deaths)
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/flunews#mortalita

And the flu is still going, on top of the coronavirus.

 

[Mick West]

Yesterday, Italy reported an additional 368 coronavirus deaths in one 24 hour period. 368 deaths per day.

The observed deaths per day from flu, in Italy, is around 200-250 in flu season. (Over 65, which is most of the Coronavirus deaths)

On the Johns Hopkins map, deaths in Italy went from 1,809 to 2,158. Up 349. Less than the day before. But too early to tell if that means anything.

 

[Agent K]

What a contrast between Italy and South Korea.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

[Mick West]

On the Johns Hopkins map, deaths in Italy went from 1,809 to 2,158. Up 349. Less than the day before. But too early to tell if that means anything.

Now up to 2502 deaths, up another 345. A slight indication that the death rate might be reducing.

If we scale that up to the US population, that's the equivalent of around 2000 deaths per day. A rate (not an amount) of 730,000 deaths per year.

 

[Agent K]

A couple of tweeted graphs.

Source: https://twitter.com/SMerler/status/1237492257458204673


Source: https://twitter.com/MarkDrazner/status/1239910171176042500

 

[deirdre]

A couple of tweeted graphs.

who is Silvia Merler? and what is the print date of the graph she is using? her tweet is from a week ago. what is "IT"? what is "CH"(purple line)

 

[DavidB66]

There is quite a puzzle about the different death rates (ratio of deaths to infections) in different countries. Notably, the death rate in Germany seems much lower than in other European countries such as France and the UK, not to mention Italy (except I just did). There is a discussion in this article which leaves the puzzle unresolved: https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-why-does-germany-have-so-few-covid-19-deaths

Even allowing for the excellence of the German health system, it is difficult to believe Germany is that much better than France, etc.

Anyone used to dealing with official statistics will wonder if the relevant definitions and reporting methods are comparable. The death rate has two components: the number of deaths in the numerator, and the number of infections in the denominator. Germany does seem to have a very vigorous testing programme, which might increase the number of mild or even asymptomatic cases detected, which would inflate the denominator.

As for the numerator - the number of deaths - that might seem pretty solid: but wait. As mentioned in the Euronews article, there is some doubt as to whether all countries are reporting deaths on the same basis. I have seen the WHO standard reporting form, which simply includes death as one of the 'outcomes' of a case. If this approach is followed, anyone who is tested positive for COVID-19 who subsequently dies (or is already dead, in the case of post-mortem testing) will show up in the statistics, whether or not the infection is the main cause of the death. As far as I can make out, this is the approach followed in the UK. If on the other hand reporting is based on a clinical judgement of the role of COVID-19 in the death, the numbers could be significantly lower, especially if a lot of the infected cases have other serious medical problems.

I don't know how Germany reports deaths for this purpose. I did look at the website of the Robert Koch Institute, which seems to be the co-ordinator for the German statistics, but couldn't find any explanation of the basis of reporting death. If anyone here can do better, it would be interesting to know. I have 'skin in the game' as my age and medical status put me in a moderately high-risk category, and I would really like to know whether the risk of death (if infected) is closer to 1 percent or 10 percent!

 

[Mendel]

The virologists at the Charité in Berlin had developed a test by January 16th. The health agencies associated with each county are headed up by doctors with training in epidemiology and have been tracing contacts of every confirmed case, and testing those as well, so I expect they have found a lot of asymptomatic cases that would remain undetected elsewhere. In addition, the health system is not overwhelmed yet.

The ECDC data show the case fatality rate for Italy going up day by day: we are at 2505/31506 = 7.95% today.

This graph is part of the collection at https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?

 

[deirdre]

I have 'skin in the game' as my age and medical status put me in a moderately high-risk category,

this is March 9th

Lothar H. Wieler, who heads the Robert Koch Institute, Germany's national disease control institute, cautioned that the country will see more deaths going forward.

The low number of complications relative to the number of cases reported so far was partly due to the types of people being diagnosed, he said, contrasting the situation in Germany with that in nearby Italy, which has reported 463 deaths and 9,172 cases.

"It's a fact that the age structure of those who have died in Italy is around 80," said Wieler. "Many of the young people who are also infected simply haven't been recognized."

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...testing-helps-explain-few-german-virus-deaths


edit add: this article has more specifics March 10th (i'm quoting the bits that stand out to me)

However, after an initial outbreak of over 10 cases, there were no further reported cases until late February, when a couple from Heinsberg, NRW, were confirmed to be infected
.......
It should also be noted that many of those who've been infected have been in younger age groups – people returning from holidays and working age people.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200310/what-explains-the-low-coronavirus-death-rate-in-germany

also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany for full coverage, charts etc

 

[Mendel]

I don't know how Germany reports deaths for this purpose.

The basis for the reports is the "Infektionsschutzgesetz" (infection protection act) of 2001, it requires doctors to report a slate of infectious diseases to the local health authorities, which pass it on to the states and ultimately to the RKI (Robert Koch Institut). Cases have to be reported on suspicion, confirmation, and death.

I would hope that every patient diagnosed with Covid-19 who dies of a respiratory illness (pneumonia) or organ failure of another organ that this virus is known to affect, it would be counted for the statistic; and that a death by car accident, for example, would not. The idea that doctors would deliberately not report dozens of Covid-19 deaths, or report them to be suppressed higher up, fails the test of common sense.

 

[DavidB66]

The basis for the reports is the "Infektionsschutzgesetz" (infection protection act) of 2001, it requires doctors to report a slate of infectious diseases to the local health authorities, which pass it on to the states and ultimately to the RKI (Robert Koch I stitut). Cases have to be reported on suspicion, confirmation, and death.

I would hope that every patient diagnosed with Covid-19 who dies of a respiratory illness (pneumonia) or organ failure of another organ that this virus is known to affect, it would be counted for the statistic; and that a death by car accident, for example, would not. The idea that doctors would deliberately not report dozens of Covid-19 deaths, or report them to be suppressed higher up, fails the test of common sense.

Thanks. I hope you are right. But when otherwise similar countries like Germany and France show a 10x difference in the death rate, common sense also suggests a need for closer investigation. If Germany really has succeeded in keeping the death rate among infected cases to well under 1%, the rest of the world should want to know how.

I notice one other peculiarity in the figures. A cluster of European countries around Germany - Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Austria and Belgium - all have death rates below 1%. I also looked up Finland, which has about 300 cases and no deaths to date. Could these countries (and Germany) be getting a milder strain of the virus for some reason?

 

[deirdre]

Could these countries (and Germany) be getting a milder strain of the virus for some reason?

it is much more likely that lower rates are do to the reasons the professionals give in my links above. if you are at risk, do everything you can not to get it. Don't play the odds.

 

[Mick West]

Playing with my infection simulator. (https://www.metabunk.org/virus/ buggy, especially on retina displays, runs best in Safari) initial spread is quite sensitive to random variations. Here are two exact same runs in terms of parameters, but with random differences in positions of the simulated people. There's a population of 5,000 and 3 initial infected.

Grey = uninfected
Red = infected & contagious
Green = immune
Yellow = dead

The simulation stops when the number of infected drops to zero.

The curve in the first instance was flattened quite considerably just by random chance. So something that might be a significant factor here is that some countries simply got lucky in the initial spreading phase when the infected people are few in number and far apart. Early detection of cases, with isolation and contact tracing, would also have a significant effect.

Here's two more runs, showing similar random variance, but this time with 10 initial cases randomly scattered.

 

[Mendel]

Could these countries (and Germany) be getting a milder strain of the virus for some reason?

While that is certainly possible, German cases have been imported from all over the world, especially Italy.

Personally, I feel that the public response to the crisis has been better (read: more informed by epidemiological and medical advice) at all levels in Germany than it has been in the US, but whether that has made a difference (and if it's even true) is going to be apparent in a few months. Our health system hasn't really been pushed yet.

What we are currently learning is that we need to reduce the infection rate drastically lest we emulate Italy, and that we need to use the remaining time to build up the capacity to treat pneumonia patients that need oxygen.

 

[DavidB66]

{Mendel) Thanks. I live in the UK, where the latest reported mortality rate is about 4%. But tests are mainly carried out on people who are already showing serious symptoms, or with other major health problems, so this probably overstates the mortality relative to the true number infected.

(Deirdre) I am avoiding exposure as far as possible. But that is easier said than done. For example, today someone came to read my gas meter. Suppose they are infected, breathing their germs into my house? (no face mask, incidentally). I might write someone a letter about that. And it must be even riskier for the meter reader, who was no spring chicken herself, going into all those houses.

 

[deirdre]

Suppose they are infected, breathing their germs into my house? (no face mask, incidentally)

ack! that's no good. put a sign on your door that says "possible coronavirus" for next month

 

[Agent K]

who is Silvia Merler? and what is the print date of the graph she is using? her tweet is from a week ago. what is "IT"? what is "CH"(purple line)

She's a researcher who apparently developed or is responsible for the COVID-19 lag tracker that tracks how Italy lags behind China and how various countries lag behind Italy (IT). CH is Switzerland.
Here's the updated graph for March 17. The U.S. and Australia are 16 days behind Italy. The UK, 13 days.
https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts

 

[deirdre]

The U.S. and Australia are 16 days behind Italy.

Italy is 4 days behind Italy too

 

[Agent K]

Italy is 4 days behind Italy too

It was 4 days ago. The x-axis is just cropped to zoom in on the other countries that lag Italy. It doesn't show the latest date from Italy.

 

[deirdre]

It was 4 days ago. The x-axis is just cropped to zoom in on the other countries that lag Italy. It doesn't show the latest date from Italy.

I was being sarcastic sorry. looking at her twitter bio there, I got a bit upset that she would do a "16 days" type thing because even though she is just a citizen researcher, she should know better.

maybe if you want to compare California (40 million) pop to Italy(60 million). but even then, CA is more spread out then Italy. so we'd need to look at population density of individual areas..since pop density would contribute to the spread. and then of course testing is a factor as well.

Basically i'm saying, don't believe for a second it will take the US 16 days to catch up to Italy if people don't buckle down with the social distancing.

 

[Mick West]

Now up to 2502 deaths, up another 345. A slight indication that the death rate might be reducing.

Unfortunately not. The death toll in Italy is up to 2,978 today, +475 in the last 24 hours, 319 of those being in the Lombardy region. They have been on lockdown for two weeks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51952712

The number of people dying from coronavirus in Italy has risen by 475 in one day to nearly 3,000 - the biggest increase since the outbreak.

There are a total of 35,713 confirmed cases in the country, with more than 4,000 having successfully recovered.

Lombardy, the worst-hit region, recorded 319 deaths in one day.

 

[Agent K]

I was being sarcastic sorry. looking at her twitter bio there, I got a bit upset that she would do a "16 days" type thing because even though she is just a citizen researcher, she should know better.

maybe if you want to compare California (40 million) pop to Italy(60 million). but even then, CA is more spread out then Italy. so we'd need to look at population density of individual areas..since pop density would contribute to the spread. and then of course testing is a factor as well.

Basically i'm saying, don't believe for a second it will take the US 16 days to catch up to Italy if people don't buckle down with the social distancing.

It's pretty remarkable how closely other countries have been following Italy. Only Sweden (SE) has started to buck the trend.
I assumed that case counts depend on the amount of testing, and the U.S. count will jump as the testing increases.

 

[Mendel]

If you want to do your own lag charts (perhaps with logarithmic y-axis?), you can download a spreadsheet with all the data at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publi...graphic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
There's a row with date, new cases, new deaths, country for every day of the epidemic and every country.

 

[Agent K]

If you want to do your own lag charts (perhaps with logarithmic y-axis?), you can download a spreadsheet with all the data at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publi...graphic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
There's a row with date, new cases, new deaths, country for every day of the epidemic and every country.

Here's data for the number of ICU beds in different countries.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/skabm9ct71qud32/ICU beds statistics.xlsx?dl=0

With that, here's "the curve" that we want to flatten.

Source: https://twitter.com/SMerler/status/1240313268339716099


The above graph suggests that Italy hasn't run out of ICU beds, but it varies by region, and two regions have run out (assuming 30% of beds are occupied by non-COVID patients).

 

[Mendel]

Youtube channel abacaba produced a video comparing Covid-19 to all other 2000s epidemic outbreaks, but it might as well have been titled "coronavirus vs. swine flu".

Source: https://youtu.be/n4no04822NQ


They also make the point that cumulative cases does not reflect the dynamics well, since recoveries should matter. Right now, Europe is where most new infections are taking place, but cumulative maps don't reflect that other countries have pushed their infection rates down.

 

[derwoodii]

I had a guess last week at the infected number trajectory down in OZ,, its tracking pretty close to my assumptions was 70 souls by 9th March & its 350 today.. i really do hope im wrong with my the next 7 days rise..




message board i contribute too snip i wont link as needs subscription
View attachment 39900


most recent count in OZ posted 45 minute ago

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...ictions-come-into-effect-20200316-p54abx.html

Coronavirus updates LIVE: Australia death toll rises as travel restrictions come into effect

View attachment 39901

sadly my infection numbers guess for Australia from March 9th 2 weeks ago has been exceeded.
70 became 350 and now 1609

Coronavirus Australia: COVID-19 cases in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, SA, WA, Tasmania, ACT and NT
March 23rd 1pm

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/e8c8797238bfc27d0bc25e7fa1903ae1

As of Monday morning, total confirmed cases — based on a tally of numbers provided by health authorities in each state and territory — stands at 1609.

There are 669 in New South Wales, 355 in Victoria, 319 in Queensland, 100 in South Australia, 140 in Western Australia, 22 in Tasmania, 19 in the Australian Capital Territory and five in the Northern Territory.

At least 69 have fully recovered.

Seven people have died — one in Western Australia and six in New South Wales


Seven people have died, six of them in NSW.

 

[Agent K]

The number of new cases and deaths in Italy has declined from yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

5560 new cases and 651 new deaths in Italy: 15% decline in new cases and 18% decline in new deaths with respect to yesterday [source] [source]
"We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council

The Italy lag tracker predicted a peak today, if Italy follows China's lead.

https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/

 

[Agent K]

Sweden and Denmark are breaking away from Italy's trend. France and Germany may be starting to do the same. Spain is catching up with Italy.
This is tracking the number of reported cases, which depends on testing. It's not the death toll.

https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/

 

[Agent K]

The number of new cases and deaths in Italy has declined from yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

5560 new cases and 651 new deaths in Italy: 15% decline in new cases and 18% decline in new deaths with respect to yesterday [source] [source]
"We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council

The Italy lag tracker predicted a peak today, if Italy follows China's lead.
View attachment 39989
https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/

New cases and deaths in Italy continue to decline as predicted. Now Spain is on the rise.