Coronavirus Statistics: Cases, Mortality, vs. Flu

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
But it isn’t when you’re comparing it to another disease that’s in the millions.
it is when you are talking statistics. 135,000 is a good pool.

my comment was specifically about 'why fatality seems higher in Lombardy' then say South Korea. The numbers we don't have are ages confirmed with virus in Lombardy and SKorea and America. etc.

Anyway, here is the link to the March 11 hearing. the question starts at 1:35:00. Fauchi's answer around 1:36:00
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/dr-fauci-warns-congress-coronavirus-outbreak-worse&start=4301

and im just adding this in because it was a question I had. ie. wondering how effective herd immunity from vaccines is. this has nothing to do with 'lethality', just adding it here so I don't lose the info.
 

frankywashere

New Member
it is when you are talking statistics. 135,000 is a good pool.

my comment was specifically about 'why fatality seems higher in Lombardy' then say South Korea. The numbers we don't have are ages confirmed with virus in Lombardy and SKorea and America. etc.

Anyway, here is the link to the March 11 hearing. the question starts at 1:35:00. Fauchi's answer around 1:36:00
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470224-1/dr-fauci-warns-congress-coronavirus-outbreak-worse&start=4301

and im just adding this in because it was a question I had. ie. wondering how effective herd immunity from vaccines is. this has nothing to do with 'lethality', just adding it here so I don't lose the info.
5-10% of 'which' population get the flu each year?
 

frankywashere

New Member
I don't understand why it's so hard to find the stats on how many people worldwide get influenza a year. Has anyone had any luck with this?
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
5-10% of 'which' population get the flu each year?
The US population. It's very variable as some seasons are worse than others.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
That's more like 3% to 14%, but 5-10% is a good ballpark.

61,000 deaths out of 45 million illnesses is 0.14%
 

Agent K

Active Member
That's more like 3% to 14%, but 5-10% is a good ballpark.
Some estimates count asymptomatic illness.

 

derwoodii

Senior Member
note this site says data has been hacked

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

derwoodii

Senior Member
I had a guess last week at the infected number trajectory down in OZ,, its tracking pretty close to my assumptions was 70 souls by 9th March & its 350 today.. i really do hope im wrong with my the next 7 days rise..




message board i contribute too snip i wont link as needs subscription
expdential.PNG


most recent count in OZ posted 45 minute ago

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...ictions-come-into-effect-20200316-p54abx.html

Coronavirus updates LIVE: Australia death toll rises as travel restrictions come into effect

350vs370.PNG
 

Agent K

Active Member
More projections.

In comparison, the CDC says that 808,129 people in the U.S. were hospitalized and 61,099 died of the flu in 2017-2018, the worst flu season in decades. CNN reported higher numbers in 2018, but the CDC's page was reviewed more recently in 2019.
 
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Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Comparisons to flu often contrast the yearly deaths due to flu with deaths so far from Coronavirus. This is very misleading, as it's the rate of increase in deaths that's really the problem. However, this direct comparison is starting to become relevant in Italy.

Yesterday, Italy reported an additional 368 coronavirus deaths in one 24 hour period. 368 deaths per day.

The observed deaths per day from flu, in Italy, is around 200-250 in flu season. (Over 65, which is most of the Coronavirus deaths)
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/flunews#mortalita
Metabunk 2020-03-16 09-21-42.jpg
 

Agent K

Active Member
Comparisons to flu often contrast the yearly deaths due to flu with deaths so far from Coronavirus. This is very misleading, as it's the rate of increase in deaths that's really the problem. However, this direct comparison is starting to become relevant in Italy.

Yesterday, Italy reported an additional 368 coronavirus deaths in one 24 hour period. 368 deaths per day.

The observed deaths per day from flu, in Italy, is around 200-250 in flu season. (Over 65, which is most of the Coronavirus deaths)
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/flunews#mortalita
And the flu is still going, on top of the coronavirus.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
On the Johns Hopkins map, deaths in Italy went from 1,809 to 2,158. Up 349. Less than the day before. But too early to tell if that means anything.
Now up to 2502 deaths, up another 345. A slight indication that the death rate might be reducing.

If we scale that up to the US population, that's the equivalent of around 2000 deaths per day. A rate (not an amount) of 730,000 deaths per year.
 

DavidB66

Active Member
There is quite a puzzle about the different death rates (ratio of deaths to infections) in different countries. Notably, the death rate in Germany seems much lower than in other European countries such as France and the UK, not to mention Italy (except I just did). There is a discussion in this article which leaves the puzzle unresolved: https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-why-does-germany-have-so-few-covid-19-deaths

Even allowing for the excellence of the German health system, it is difficult to believe Germany is that much better than France, etc.

Anyone used to dealing with official statistics will wonder if the relevant definitions and reporting methods are comparable. The death rate has two components: the number of deaths in the numerator, and the number of infections in the denominator. Germany does seem to have a very vigorous testing programme, which might increase the number of mild or even asymptomatic cases detected, which would inflate the denominator.

As for the numerator - the number of deaths - that might seem pretty solid: but wait. As mentioned in the Euronews article, there is some doubt as to whether all countries are reporting deaths on the same basis. I have seen the WHO standard reporting form, which simply includes death as one of the 'outcomes' of a case. If this approach is followed, anyone who is tested positive for COVID-19 who subsequently dies (or is already dead, in the case of post-mortem testing) will show up in the statistics, whether or not the infection is the main cause of the death. As far as I can make out, this is the approach followed in the UK. If on the other hand reporting is based on a clinical judgement of the role of COVID-19 in the death, the numbers could be significantly lower, especially if a lot of the infected cases have other serious medical problems.

I don't know how Germany reports deaths for this purpose. I did look at the website of the Robert Koch Institute, which seems to be the co-ordinator for the German statistics, but couldn't find any explanation of the basis of reporting death. If anyone here can do better, it would be interesting to know. I have 'skin in the game' as my age and medical status put me in a moderately high-risk category, and I would really like to know whether the risk of death (if infected) is closer to 1 percent or 10 percent!
 

Mendel

Active Member
The virologists at the Charité in Berlin had developed a test by January 16th. The health agencies associated with each county are headed up by doctors with training in epidemiology and have been tracing contacts of every confirmed case, and testing those as well, so I expect they have found a lot of asymptomatic cases that would remain undetected elsewhere. In addition, the health system is not overwhelmed yet.

The ECDC data show the case fatality rate for Italy going up day by day: we are at 2505/31506 = 7.95% today.

image.jpeg
This graph is part of the collection at https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/?
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
I have 'skin in the game' as my age and medical status put me in a moderately high-risk category,
this is March 9th
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...testing-helps-explain-few-german-virus-deaths


edit add: this article has more specifics March 10th (i'm quoting the bits that stand out to me)
https://www.thelocal.de/20200310/what-explains-the-low-coronavirus-death-rate-in-germany

also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany for full coverage, charts etc
 
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Mendel

Active Member
I don't know how Germany reports deaths for this purpose.
The basis for the reports is the "Infektionsschutzgesetz" (infection protection act) of 2001, it requires doctors to report a slate of infectious diseases to the local health authorities, which pass it on to the states and ultimately to the RKI (Robert Koch Institut). Cases have to be reported on suspicion, confirmation, and death.

I would hope that every patient diagnosed with Covid-19 who dies of a respiratory illness (pneumonia) or organ failure of another organ that this virus is known to affect, it would be counted for the statistic; and that a death by car accident, for example, would not. The idea that doctors would deliberately not report dozens of Covid-19 deaths, or report them to be suppressed higher up, fails the test of common sense.
 
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DavidB66

Active Member
The basis for the reports is the "Infektionsschutzgesetz" (infection protection act) of 2001, it requires doctors to report a slate of infectious diseases to the local health authorities, which pass it on to the states and ultimately to the RKI (Robert Koch I stitut). Cases have to be reported on suspicion, confirmation, and death.

I would hope that every patient diagnosed with Covid-19 who dies of a respiratory illness (pneumonia) or organ failure of another organ that this virus is known to affect, it would be counted for the statistic; and that a death by car accident, for example, would not. The idea that doctors would deliberately not report dozens of Covid-19 deaths, or report them to be suppressed higher up, fails the test of common sense.
Thanks. I hope you are right. But when otherwise similar countries like Germany and France show a 10x difference in the death rate, common sense also suggests a need for closer investigation. If Germany really has succeeded in keeping the death rate among infected cases to well under 1%, the rest of the world should want to know how.

I notice one other peculiarity in the figures. A cluster of European countries around Germany - Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Austria and Belgium - all have death rates below 1%. I also looked up Finland, which has about 300 cases and no deaths to date. Could these countries (and Germany) be getting a milder strain of the virus for some reason?
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
Could these countries (and Germany) be getting a milder strain of the virus for some reason?
it is much more likely that lower rates are do to the reasons the professionals give in my links above. if you are at risk, do everything you can not to get it. Don't play the odds.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Playing with my infection simulator. (https://www.metabunk.org/virus/ buggy, especially on retina displays, runs best in Safari) initial spread is quite sensitive to random variations. Here are two exact same runs in terms of parameters, but with random differences in positions of the simulated people. There's a population of 5,000 and 3 initial infected.
Metabunk 2020-03-18 08-40-00.jpg
Metabunk 2020-03-18 08-40-21.jpg
Grey = uninfected
Red = infected & contagious
Green = immune
Yellow = dead

The simulation stops when the number of infected drops to zero.

The curve in the first instance was flattened quite considerably just by random chance. So something that might be a significant factor here is that some countries simply got lucky in the initial spreading phase when the infected people are few in number and far apart. Early detection of cases, with isolation and contact tracing, would also have a significant effect.

Here's two more runs, showing similar random variance, but this time with 10 initial cases randomly scattered.
Metabunk 2020-03-18 08-59-24.jpg
 

Mendel

Active Member
Could these countries (and Germany) be getting a milder strain of the virus for some reason?
While that is certainly possible, German cases have been imported from all over the world, especially Italy.

Personally, I feel that the public response to the crisis has been better (read: more informed by epidemiological and medical advice) at all levels in Germany than it has been in the US, but whether that has made a difference (and if it's even true) is going to be apparent in a few months. Our health system hasn't really been pushed yet.

What we are currently learning is that we need to reduce the infection rate drastically lest we emulate Italy, and that we need to use the remaining time to build up the capacity to treat pneumonia patients that need oxygen.
 

DavidB66

Active Member
{Mendel) Thanks. I live in the UK, where the latest reported mortality rate is about 4%. But tests are mainly carried out on people who are already showing serious symptoms, or with other major health problems, so this probably overstates the mortality relative to the true number infected.

(Deirdre) I am avoiding exposure as far as possible. But that is easier said than done. For example, today someone came to read my gas meter. Suppose they are infected, breathing their germs into my house? (no face mask, incidentally). I might write someone a letter about that. And it must be even riskier for the meter reader, who was no spring chicken herself, going into all those houses.
 

Agent K

Active Member
who is Silvia Merler? and what is the print date of the graph she is using? her tweet is from a week ago. what is "IT"? what is "CH"(purple line)
She's a researcher who apparently developed or is responsible for the COVID-19 lag tracker that tracks how Italy lags behind China and how various countries lag behind Italy (IT). CH is Switzerland.
Here's the updated graph for March 17. The U.S. and Australia are 16 days behind Italy. The UK, 13 days.
https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts

1584563912493.png
 

deirdre

Moderator
Staff member
It was 4 days ago. The x-axis is just cropped to zoom in on the other countries that lag Italy. It doesn't show the latest date from Italy.
I was being sarcastic sorry. looking at her twitter bio there, I got a bit upset that she would do a "16 days" type thing because even though she is just a citizen researcher, she should know better.

maybe if you want to compare California (40 million) pop to Italy(60 million). but even then, CA is more spread out then Italy. so we'd need to look at population density of individual areas..since pop density would contribute to the spread. and then of course testing is a factor as well.

Basically i'm saying, don't believe for a second it will take the US 16 days to catch up to Italy if people don't buckle down with the social distancing.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Now up to 2502 deaths, up another 345. A slight indication that the death rate might be reducing.
Unfortunately not. The death toll in Italy is up to 2,978 today, +475 in the last 24 hours, 319 of those being in the Lombardy region. They have been on lockdown for two weeks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51952712
 

Agent K

Active Member
I was being sarcastic sorry. looking at her twitter bio there, I got a bit upset that she would do a "16 days" type thing because even though she is just a citizen researcher, she should know better.

maybe if you want to compare California (40 million) pop to Italy(60 million). but even then, CA is more spread out then Italy. so we'd need to look at population density of individual areas..since pop density would contribute to the spread. and then of course testing is a factor as well.

Basically i'm saying, don't believe for a second it will take the US 16 days to catch up to Italy if people don't buckle down with the social distancing.
It's pretty remarkable how closely other countries have been following Italy. Only Sweden (SE) has started to buck the trend.
I assumed that case counts depend on the amount of testing, and the U.S. count will jump as the testing increases.
 

Agent K

Active Member
If you want to do your own lag charts (perhaps with logarithmic y-axis?), you can download a spreadsheet with all the data at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publi...graphic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
There's a row with date, new cases, new deaths, country for every day of the epidemic and every country.
Here's data for the number of ICU beds in different countries.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/skabm9ct71qud32/ICU beds statistics.xlsx?dl=0

With that, here's "the curve" that we want to flatten.
Source: https://twitter.com/SMerler/status/1240313268339716099


The above graph suggests that Italy hasn't run out of ICU beds, but it varies by region, and two regions have run out (assuming 30% of beds are occupied by non-COVID patients).

1584573265744.png
 

Mendel

Active Member
Youtube channel abacaba produced a video comparing Covid-19 to all other 2000s epidemic outbreaks, but it might as well have been titled "coronavirus vs. swine flu".
image.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpegimage.jpeg
Source: https://youtu.be/n4no04822NQ


They also make the point that cumulative cases does not reflect the dynamics well, since recoveries should matter. Right now, Europe is where most new infections are taking place, but cumulative maps don't reflect that other countries have pushed their infection rates down.
 

derwoodii

Senior Member
I had a guess last week at the infected number trajectory down in OZ,, its tracking pretty close to my assumptions was 70 souls by 9th March & its 350 today.. i really do hope im wrong with my the next 7 days rise..




message board i contribute too snip i wont link as needs subscription
View attachment 39900


most recent count in OZ posted 45 minute ago

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...ictions-come-into-effect-20200316-p54abx.html

Coronavirus updates LIVE: Australia death toll rises as travel restrictions come into effect

View attachment 39901

sadly my infection numbers guess for Australia from March 9th 2 weeks ago has been exceeded.
70 became 350 and now 1609

Coronavirus Australia: COVID-19 cases in NSW, Victoria, Queensland, SA, WA, Tasmania, ACT and NT
March 23rd 1pm

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/e8c8797238bfc27d0bc25e7fa1903ae1



 

Agent K

Active Member
The number of new cases and deaths in Italy has declined from yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy
The Italy lag tracker predicted a peak today, if Italy follows China's lead.
1584933901608.png
https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/
 

Agent K

Active Member
The number of new cases and deaths in Italy has declined from yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy
The Italy lag tracker predicted a peak today, if Italy follows China's lead.
View attachment 39989
https://www.algebris.com/policy-research-forum/blog/covid-19-facts/
New cases and deaths in Italy continue to decline as predicted. Now Spain is on the rise.

1585028918255.png
1585029181712.png
 
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