Coronavirus Statistics: Cases, Mortality, vs. Flu

[trevor]

honestly you can just look at case studies to find the infection fatality rate of covid 19.

1,200 infected on the u.s.s Roosevelt, 1 death. 4 hospitalized. nearly half never developed symptoms. IFR = 0.08

US roosevelt is most likely a younger crowd though, so lets take a look food plants.

1,000 Infected at smithfield food plant. 2 deaths. IFR 0.2
500 infected at a triumph. 1 death. IFR = 0.2

Most notably though the CDC has an estimated survival rate after infection by age group on their website

0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70+ 94.6%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

[Mendel]

honestly you can just look at case studies to find the infection fatality rate of covid 19.

a) This thread started in March
b) as your post shows, none of the studies agree

Most notably though the CDC has an estimated survival rate after infection by age group on their website

0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70+ 94.6%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

c) the CDC presents 5 scenarios on that page, with 3 different sets of fatality rates, this is just one of these

There is not one infection fatality rate. Each age group has its own, and then it depends on how obese the population is, how full the hospitals are, it changes with treatment availability and effectiveness, and most importantly, it changes with how many infections go undetected, which is by its nature a difficult parameter to measure.

New York City has 8.4 million population, and 25,416 deaths so far, and that's a total fatality rate of 0.3%, which means the IFR for New York is higher than that because not everyone got infected, and people are still dying. (Also please note that IFR = 0.2 means 20%, 0.2% is written as IFR=0.002. The % symbol really matters!)

Article:

Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Each dot in this graph represents a country.

The IFR depends on how many infections don't become cases; if that's about half of them, then the global IFR is probably going to turn out to be around 1%; could be less, could be more. And if you read back through the thread, that's not really changed a lot.

The really important parameter for public policy, though, is how busy the hospitals are. If hospitals have to stop receiving regular patients (as happened in L.A. recently) because they've got too many Covid patients, public policy has failed.