NorCal Dave
Senior Member.
Historically, government secrets have turned out to quite credible, not secret enough, or both.
Just to piggy-back on that a bit. Even if the government can keep something classified and secret out someplace like Area 51, once deployed, it's likely going to be found out.
Once the U2 was moved from Area 51 and deployed to forward operating bases, it was going to be seen, so a cover story was invented that it was a high-altitude weather research plane:
Even after being deployed to the UK and Turkey in 1956, the IAF wasn't to sure about it when they saw one until the 1960 shoot down confirmed it was a spy plane:External Quote:
With approval from the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA)'s director Hugh Dryden, Bissell's team at the CIA developed a cover story for the U-2 that described the aircraft as used by NACA for high-altitude weather research; the cover story would be used if the aircraft were lost over hostile territory. U-2s flew some real weather-related missions, taking photographs that appeared in the press,[67][68] and sometimes had civilian government decals,[69] but few believed in the cover story; in May 1957 the UK's Daily Express newspaper reported the U-2 operating east of the Iron Curtain.[68]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_U-2External Quote:
On 11 March 1959, two Israeli Super Mystère fighters were directed to intercept a U-2 detected over Israel by Israeli ground-based radar. Although the aircraft were unable to make an intercept, the formation leader, Major Yosef Alon, managed to get a good look at the aircraft. He subsequently identified it out of a book as a U-2, registered as a weather reconnaissance aircraft to the US Weather Service.
In spite of this, it was not until the 1960 shootdown of a U-2 over the Soviet Union and its subsequent public exposure as a spy plane that the Israeli government understood the identity of the mystery aircraft.[80][81][69]
Even without a full cover story, the government, or at least President Johnson, publicly referred to the SR-71 in a round about way at a time when its predecessor, the secret A12, was being used and the SR71 was in development:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_SR-71_BlackbirdExternal Quote:
Johnson decided to counter this criticism by revealing the existence of the YF-12A USAF interceptor, which also served as cover for the still-secret A-12[22] and the USAF reconnaissance model since July 1964. USAF Chief of Staff General Curtis LeMay preferred the SR (Strategic Reconnaissance) designation and wanted the RS-71 to be named SR-71. Before the July speech, LeMay lobbied to modify Johnson's speech to read "SR-71" instead of "RS-71". The media transcript given to the press at the time still had the earlier RS-71 designation in places, creating the story that the president had misread the aircraft's designation.[23][N 3] To conceal the A-12's existence, Johnson referred only to the A-11, while revealing the existence of a high-speed, high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft.[24]
The A12 remained a secret CIA aircraft from 1962-1966 while it's air force derivative, the SR71 became the public:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_SR-71_BlackbirdExternal Quote:
The A-12 flew covert missions while the SR-71 flew overt missions; the latter had USAF markings and pilots carried Geneva Conventions Identification Cards.[21]
The F117 managed to stay more or less secret for a number of years, but was also based just outside Area 51, where it had been developed:
And it's not clear how much they did there, or abroad. When one did crash, it was kept secret:External Quote:
The first production F-117 was delivered in 1982, and its initial operating capability was achieved in October 1983. All aircraft were initially based at Tonopah Test Range Airport, Nevada.
But once it got deployed more, it was acknowledged:External Quote:
The F-117 was secret for much of the 1980s. Many news articles discussed what they called an "F-19" stealth fighter, and the Testor Corporation produced a very inaccurate scale model. When an F-117 crashed in Sequoia National Forest in July 1986, killing the pilot and starting a fire, the USAF established restricted airspace.[36] Armed guards prohibited entry, including firefighters, and a helicopter gunship circled the site. All F-117 debris was replaced with remains of a F-101A Voodoo crash stored at Area 51.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_F-117_NighthawkExternal Quote:
On 10 November 1988, the F-117 was publicly acknowledged for the first time. Its first combat mission was flown during the United States invasion of Panama in 1989.
Similarly, the CIA's secret Soviet submarine recovery project of the '70s, Azorean, actually took place in plane site. It's too hard to build and conceal a top secret ship, so it got a cover story as a Howard Huges project, the Glomar Explorer. And even then, it was found out.
A top-secret aircraft from the '80s, that was operational by 1990, may have begun in the '70s, like the F117, and just wouldn't be all that advanced today, never mind super-secret.