Claim:Natural Covid-19 broke out of Wuhan lab (not man-made)

Why was the lab in Wuhan studying a form of the virus in the first place? ...
Because that is, what a virus-studying institute does. Obviously, ever since SARS-1, SARS and SARS-like viruses would have been a hot concern.

that's another thing that's bewildering me, because "8 miles" to me is like "4 villages over", as relates to the older WIV campus (the newer campus is 18 miles away).

it's only "right around" if your scale is Texas, not a densely populated city. In NYC terms, it's like saying the Upper West Side is right around Brooklyn.
... .
Cities and city dwellers work quite differently from villages and villagers.

It is probably not too uncommon for residents of Brooklyn to work in the Upper West Side, or otherwise frequent the Upper West Side.
All you need is a one-off event. Regardless of prior likelihood, once it has occurred, it has occurred. It's certainly more likely for someone in Brooklin / the neighborhood of the wet market to mingle with and be infected by someone working in the Upper West Side / WIV than for two people from two different greater metropolitan areas to do the same.
 
Not really. People don't regularly travel (and thus carry infections) greater distances just because they're in a larger country.
i know that's why people are eyeballing the lab as an origin, because that's where the cases first showed up. (and maybe why CHina has suggested a traveler from another country brought it in). No?
 
It is probably not too uncommon for residents of Brooklyn to work in the Upper West Side, or otherwise frequent the Upper West Side.
My point is that the chance for a specific person from the Upper West Side to have had close contact with any person from a specific block in Brooklyn last week is quite small.

But that's the kind of chance the lab leak scenario requires: the infectious lab worker must have infected a market worker (and nobody else). That's already improbable if they live in the same village, but it's virtually impossible in a city the size of NYC or Wuhan. If there are 400 people working at that market, the chance is worse than 1:20,000 or 0.005%, about the same as flipping a coin to come up heads 14 times in a row, or throwing 6 dice and coming up all sixes or all ones on the first throw.
 
My point is that the chance for a specific (random) person from the Upper West Side to have had close contact with any person from a specific block in Brooklyn last week is quite small.
actually it's really not. i get the analogy you are going for, but in real life your analogy doesnt work. It is highly likely that Manhattan offices have workers both from the Upper East side and from Brooklyn. just saying.

note: not that im fully backing your wet market focus, the wet market as origin is still debated.
 
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actually it's really not. i get the analogy you are going for, but in real life your analogy doesnt work. It is highly likely that Manhattan offices have workers both from the Upper East side and from Brooklyn. just saying.
that's not the same scenario, statistically

to get the same chance, you need to
• pick a person from the Upper West Side at random (the lab worker)
• pick a city block in Brooklyn at random (the market workers)
• check if they've had close contact in the past week (while infectious)

If you start by choosing a place of contact, and have both be the same profession, you're skewing the odds considerably.

It's much more likely that the Upper West Sider infects an actual neighbor.
 
• pick a person from the Upper West Side at random (the lab worker)
• pick a city block in Brooklyn at random (the market workers)
ok i had your analogy backwards. thanks for clearing it up.

pick a person from the Upper West Side at random (the lab worker)
maybe the lab worker, whose lab is in the Upper West side, lives in Brooklyn a train stop away from the market and likes to shop at that market because people do go out of their way to shop at big box stores like Costco or BJs.

or maybe since only like 1% of non retired people actually go to hospital for covid (back then)..and hospital entry was how we were tracking it back then.. the lab worker actually infected 100 other people, who infected 200 people and one of those 200 people lives in Brooklyn. maybe one even lives in the same apartment building as the market worker.

I'm not arguing as much as you may think, but "what are the chances i run into an infected person" was the whole philosophy of anti-lockdown/anti-mask "conservatives" and the NY mayor, and Pelosi etc early in the pandemic. That philosophy didnt work out too well for us.
 
i know that's why people are eyeballing the lab as an origin, because that's where the cases first showed up. (and maybe why CHina has suggested a traveler from another country brought it in). No?
My fuzzy memory is that initially the fastest jumpers to conclusions had mixed up two different bio labs in Wuhan, one of which was much closer to the wet market, but that one had nothing to do with Shi and her mutant virus strain creation exploits.
 
I'm not arguing as much as you may think, but "what are the chances i run into an infected person" was the whole philosophy of anti-lockdown/anti-mask "conservatives" and the NY mayor, and Pelosi etc early in the pandemic. That philosophy didnt work out too well for us.
it's different when you consider population dynamics, because then any R-value >1 is bad—an individual "pretty unlikely" eventually overwhelms the population if left to grow.

the wuhan problem is that the lab worker living next to the market is statistically unlikely, and that a customer (without symptoms) infects a seller over a sales contact is also unlikely. I've not claimed it's impossible, same as I wouldn't claim it's impossible to flip heads 14 times in a row, it's just very much unlikely—much more unlikely than a wild infected pangolin ending up in Wuhan and not elsewhere.
 
the wuhan problem is that the lab worker living next to the market is statistically unlikely, and that a customer (without symptoms) infects a seller over a sales contact is also unlikely. I've not claimed it's impossible, same as I wouldn't claim it's impossible to flip heads 14 times in a row, it's just very much unlikely—much more unlikely than a wild infected pangolin ending up in Wuhan and not elsewhere.
it's just those seem like alot of speculations too.
There's nothing to say the lab worker immediately infected a stall worker.
There's nothing to say the alleged infector was asymptomatic (although i dont know what cold, allergy and flu season is like in China).
There's also nothing to say the alleged market worker was infected at the wet market.

(Either way, hopefully China is cracking down on ALL the possibilities, including if the lab workers who went to collect bats hire local help. Maybe their day hire had it and gave it to a lab worker. Lots of possibilities. )
 
it's just those seem like alot of speculations too.
There's nothing to say the lab worker immediately infected a stall worker.
no, but having an infection chain end up at the wet market is actually more unlikely
There's nothing to say the alleged infector was asymptomatic (although i dont know what cold, allergy and flu season is like in China).
a person whose job choice is medicine was involved in a possible biosecurity breach involving SARS is likely to isolate once they see symptoms, because they realize what it means if they don't, and that runs counter to their life choice. I could see them not knowing about asymptomatic infectiousness because that's been atypical about Covid.
There's also nothing to say the alleged market worker was infected at the wet market.
Agreed, that's why I'm not assuming that. In fact, I think it's rather unlikely that it happened that way.
(Either way, hopefully China is cracking down on ALL the possibilities, including if the lab workers who went to collect bats hire local help. Maybe their day hire had it and gave it to a lab worker. Lots of possibilities. )
"local help" means people down in Yunnan where the bat caves are. the thing is that these bats don't have viruses close enough to SARS-CoV-2. I think they did screen the people there. But the time frame wouldn't fit anyway.
 
a person whose job choice is medicine was involved in a possible biosecurity breach involving SARS is likely to isolate once they see symptoms, because they realize what it means if they don't, and that runs counter to their life choice. I could see them not knowing about asymptomatic infectiousness because that's been atypical about Covid.
true. but not if he (asymptomatic) infected his friend. That's what i was referring to. I doubt either of them would be too concerned if the friend developed a cold. which is what coronavirus is...a cold. [add: COvid 19 and SARS just happen to be very nasty versions]
 
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(Either way, hopefully China is cracking down on ALL the possibilities, including if the lab workers who went to collect bats hire local help. Maybe their day hire had it and gave it to a lab worker. Lots of possibilities. )
so they are aware of the possibility, so that's good.

Fauchi 0:12
"a lab leak could be that someone was out in the wild, maybe looking for different types of viruses in bats, got infected, went into a lab and was being studied in the lab and then came out of the lab. But if that is the definition of a lab leak then it is still a natural occurrence"


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r5zapwKzyI




original interview source

Source: https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2023/03/11/fauci-responds-to-covid-lab-leak-theory-acostanr-vpx.cnn
 
There is now speculation of the involvement of another species, a wild canid called a raccoon dog, in the Covid infection. But the question of a lab leak has not been settled.
External Quote:

The World Health Organization has obtained information pointing to the presence of raccoon dogs—a species suspected by some of initially spreading COVID-19 to humans—at the Wuhan market tied to the virus's early days, officials said Friday.
Raccoon dogs—known to be susceptible to COVID-19, and to spread viruses to humans—are thought to have been sold illegally at the market. They could be the missing link in the chain of transmission from bats, presumably, to people, experts in the zoonotic transmission camp say.
But WHO officials Friday cautioned against assumptions, saying that while the information is an important piece of the proverbial jigsaw puzzle, "it does not determine what the picture shows"—and that a lab leak can't be ruled out.
https://fortune.com/well/2023/03/17...t-covid-people-humans-wuhan-wet-market-china/

More information about raccoon dogs:
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Have they been linked to other diseases?

Yes. Raccoon dogs and related mammals sold for food at a a live animal market in China in 2003 were found to carry a coronavirus similar to the virus found in humans during a SARS coronavirus outbreak at the time. In 2004, Chinese health officials ordered the slaughter of 10,000 animals set to be sold at market, including raccoon dogs, after a man tested positive for a novel strain of the SARS virus and raised fears of another outbreak.
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/18/1164527523/raccoon-dogs-coronavirus-wuhan-market
 
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/docu...logy-and-the-Origins-of-COVID-19-20230623.pdf
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Things had gotten tense and Dr. Shi finally spoke out. Over the past 15 years her lab had isolated and grown only three bat coronaviruses related to SARS.
Lu Ann quoted this article by Science magazine:
Article:
SCIENCE 31 Jul 2020 Vol 369, Issue 6503 pp. 487-488 DOI: 10.1126/science.369.6503.487

The coronavirus pandemic has thrust virologist Shi Zhengli into a fierce spotlight. Shi, nicknamed "Bat Woman," heads a group that studies bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in the Chinese city where the pandemic began. Many have speculated that SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen that causes COVID-19, accidentally escaped from her lab [...].

On 15 July, Shi emailed Science answers to a series of questions about the virus' origin and her research.

I'm attaching the full Q&A to this post.
I found it at http://scim.ag/ShiZhengli via https://web.archive.org/web/20230614175940/https://www.science.org/pb-assets/PDF/News PDFs/Shi Zhengli Q&A-1630433861.pdf .

Excerpts relating to the lab leak theory:
External Quote:

17. Many scientists who have analyzed the sequence of SARS-CoV-2 have concluded that it does not have the signatures of a lab-engineered virus. But even some of these researchers say it remains possible that SARS-CoV-2 existed in your lab and accidentally infected a lab worker. They note that several labs had accidental infections with the virus that causes SARS. So how can you rule out this possibility?

A: We have isolated three closely-related bat coronaviruses over the last 15 years (here an isolated virus is a live virus which can grow in cultured cells in the laboratory) and all of them are SARS-related coronaviruses. These bat viruses share 79.8% sequence identity and are distantly related to SARS-CoV-2. On February 3, we published a paper in Nature and reported that SARS-CoV-2 is 96.2% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus named RaTG13 (I would like to emphasize that we have only the genome sequence and didn't isolate this virus). With about 30,000 nucleotides, coronaviruses have a larger genome size than most animal RNA viruses. The 3.8% difference in genome sequence is a significant difference for coronaviruses. Five renowned virologists from Scripps Research Translational Institute, Columbia University, Tulane University, the University of Edinburgh and the University of Sydney published a paper titled "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2" in Nature Medicine on March 18. The authors stated that "although RaTG13 is 96% identical overall to SARS-CoV-2, its spike diverges in the receptor binding domain." On April 23, the US news site "VOX" quoted opinions from Prof. Edward Holmes, an expert in virus evolution at the University of Sydney. "The level of genome sequence divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13 is equivalent to an average of 50 years (and at least 20 years) of evolutionary change," said Professor Holmes. The genomes of RaTG13 carried by bats and SARS-CoV-2 differ in 1,177 nucleotide positions. It would have taken a very long time to accumulate sufficient numbers of mutations through natural evolution. The probability is extremely tiny that the mutations occurred exactly in these 1,100-plus positions to be identical to SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, RaTG13 evolving into SARS-CoV-2 in nature is only theoretically possible.

Meanwhile, the research and experiments in our institute are in strict accordance with the international and national management requirements of biosafety laboratories and experimental activities, which are conducted in the required biosafety laboratories. Both the facilities and management of P3 and P4 laboratories are very strict. For example, personal protective equipment must be worn by the research staff. The air in the laboratory can only be discharged after highly efficient filtration. Waste water and solid waste must be sterilized under high temperatures and high pressure. The entire process of the experimental activities is video-monitored by biosafety management personnel. Every year, the lab's facilities and equipment must be tested by a third-party institution authorized by the government. Only after passing the test can the lab continue to run. The high-level biosafety laboratories at our institute have been operated safely and stably. To date, no pathogen leaks or personnel infection accidents have occurred.

18. The people who have floated these theories have proposed several ways in which the virus could have escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. I'd like to ask some detailed, factual questions about the work at your lab that could shed more light on those scenarios:

(1) Are bat coronaviruses grown at the institute?


A: We have only isolated three strains of live SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoV) from bats, which shared 95-96% genome sequence similarity with SARS-CoV and less than 80% similarity with SARS-CoV-2. These results were published in Nature [2013, 593(7477):535-538], the Journal of Virology [2016, 90(6), 3253-3256] and PLoS Pathogens [2017, 13(11):e1006698], respectively.

(2) Does your group extract viruses from biological samples and do the sequencing or does that take place elsewhere?

A: We isolated viruses or extracted virus RNA from biological samples in the lab. The sequencing was done mostly in Wuhan.

(3) Has your lab done any animal experiments with SARS-related viruses recently? If so, can you provide any details?

A: We performed in vivo experiments in transgenic (human ACE2 expressing) mice and civets in 2018 and 2019 in the Institute's biosafety laboratory. The viruses we used were bat SARSr-CoV close to SARS-CoV. Operation of this work was undertaken strictly following the regulations on biosafety management of pathogenic microbes in laboratories in China. The results suggested that bat SARSr-CoV can directly infect civets and can also infect mice with human ACE2 receptors. Yet it showed low pathogenicity in mice and no pathogenicity in civets.
These data are being sorted and will be published soon.

(4) Is it possible that someone associated with the institute became infected in some other way, for instance while collecting, sampling, or handling bats?

A: Such a possibility did not exist. Recently we tested the sera from all staff and students in the lab and nobody is infected by either bat SARSr-CoV or SARS-CoV-2. To date, there is "zero infection" of all staff and students in our institute.

(5) Is it possible that you have biological samples from bats in your lab that you have yet to test for viruses? If so, how many samples have you tested and how many remain untested? If some remain untested, how do you know for certain that none contain SARS-CoV-2 or a close relative?

A: We tested all bat samples that we collected, including bat anal swabs, oral swabs and fecal samples, and 2,007 samples were positive for coronavirus. We did not find any viruses whose gene sequence is more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than RaTG13.

(6) Your lab was one of the first to sequence and isolate the virus. When and where
did you first sequence it?


A: We received the first batch of samples from seven patients on December 30 2019. Using pan-coronavirus RT-PCR and quantitative RT-PCR, which can detect all SARS-related coronaviruses, we found samples from five patients were positive. On December 31, when analyzing the sequencing result of the RT-PCR product, we identified that it was a novel SARSrelated coronavirus. We then confirmed the result via different methods and performed fulllengthgenome sequencing as well as virus isolation. We released the genome sequence to the global public on January 12 via WHO.

(7) What about the cave at Mojiang in 2013? When did you first isolate RaTG13? When did you complete the full sequencing of it?

A: We detected the virus by pan-coronavirus RT-PCR in a bat fecal sample collected from Tongguan town, Mojiang county in Yunnan province in 2013, and obtained its partial RdRp sequence. Because the low similarity of this virus to SARS-CoV, we did not pay special attention to this sequence. In 2018, as the NGS sequencing technology and capability in our lab was improved, we did further sequencing of the virus using our remaining samples, and obtained the full-length genome sequence of RaTG13 except the 15 nucleotides at the 5' end. As the sample was used many times for the purpose of viral nucleic acid extraction, there was no more sample after we finished genome sequencing, and we did not do virus isolation and other studies on it. Among all the bat samples we collected, the RaTG13 virus was detected in only one single sample. In 2020, we compared the sequence of SARS-CoV-2 and our unpublished bat coronavirus sequences and found it shared a 96.2% identity with RaTG13. RaTG13 has never been isolated or cultured.

(8) Some people who suspect a lab accident occurred have suggested that BtCoV/4991, a bat virus you described in 2016, is SARS-CoV-2. When you published, you only had the sequence of one protein, RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). A blast analysis on GenBank shows that the RdRp of BtCoV/4991 and RaTG13 are 100% homologous. Is BtCoV/4991 actually RaTG13, which would be consistent with your 2020 report that described how you did the full sequence of a virus you only had done the RdRp sequence for earlier? If so, why did you rename the virus? What does "TG" stand for in RaTG13?

A: Ra4991 is the ID for a bat sample while RaTG13 is the ID for the coronavirus detected in the sample. We changed the name as we wanted it to reflect the time and location for the sample collection. 13 means it was collected in 2013, and TG is the abbreviation of Tongguan town, the location where the sample was collected.

(9) Why do you have RdRp sequences for some viruses and not their full sequences? How many full-length sequences are there of the samples you've tested and how many are just RdRp?

A: Due to financial and manpower constraints, it is impossible for us to do the whole genome sequencing of all samples. We hope to conduct further full-length coronavirus genome sequencing in some other samples within the next two years. However, for some samples, it is impossible to obtain the whole virus genome sequences because of the low quantity of the viral nucleic acids in them.

(10) Were you ever instructed to destroy any viruses after the outbreak surfaced?

A: No.

(11) Is it possible that there was an accidental release at another lab in Wuhan? The Wuhan Center for Disease Control has been mentioned. If you have ruled this out as a possibility, why?

A: Based on daily academic exchanges and discussion, I can rule out such a possibility.
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Note: Science asked two follow -up questions after receiving the replies above.

Q: Did you do or collaborate on any gain-of-function experiments with coronaviruses that were not published, and, if so what are the details?


A: No.

Q: Given that coronavirus research in most places is done in BSL-2 or BSL-3 labs--and indeed, you WIV didn't even have an operational BSL-4 until recently--why would you do any coronavirus experiments under BSL-4 conditions?

A: The coronavirus research in our laboratory is conducted in BSL-2 or BSL-3 laboratories.
After the BSL-4 laboratory in our institute has been put into operation, in accordance with the management regulations of BSL-4 laboratory, we have trained the scientific researchers in the BSL-4 laboratory using the lowpathogenic coronaviruses as model viruses, which aims to prepare for conducting the experimental activities of highly pathogenic microorganisms.
After the COVID-19 outbreak, our country has stipulated that the cultivation and the animal infection experiments of SARS-CoV-2 should be carried out in BSL-3 laboratory or above. Since the BSL-3 laboratories in our institute do not have the hardware conditions to conduct experiments on nonhuman primates, and in order to carry out the mentioned research, our institute had applied to the governmental authorities and obtained the qualification to conduct experiments on SARS-CoV-2 for Wuhan P4 laboratory, in which the rhesus monkey animal model, etc. have been carried out.
The experimental activities are supervised by our institute's biosafety committee and complied with the biosafety regulations.
Early in the pandemic, we discussed that detecting virus RNA does not necessarily mean live virus is present: the virus originally in the sample may well be degraded to the point where zero infectious RNA remains in the sample. The broken parts of the virus can still be sequenced for the full genome, but an unbroken complete virus is needed for the virus to replicate. When these are present in a sample, they might exist in minute amounts that have to be amplified before they can even be analysed further.

What does "P4" mean?
Article:
A biosafety level (BSL), or pathogen/protection level, is a set of biocontainment precautions required to isolate dangerous biological agents in an enclosed laboratory facility. The levels of containment range from the lowest biosafety level 1 (BSL-1) to the highest at level 4 (BSL-4). [..] Facilities with these designations are also sometimes given as P1 through P4 (for pathogen or protection level), as in the term P3 laboratory.
 

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External Quote:
CIA says lab leak most likely source of Covid outbreak
The CIA on Saturday offered a new assessment on the origin of the Covid outbreak, saying the coronavirus is "more likely" to have leaked from a Chinese lab than to have come from animals.

But the intelligence agency cautioned it had "low confidence" in this determination.

A spokesperson said that a "research-related origin" of the pandemic "is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting".

The decision to release that assessment marks one of the first made by the CIA's new director John Ratcliffe, appointed by Donald Trump, who took over the agency on Thursday.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during President Trump's first term, has long favoured the lab leak theory, claiming Covid most likely came from a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd9qjjj4zy5o

Also: "officials told US media that the new assessment was not based on new intelligence".
 
But the intelligence agency cautioned it had "low confidence" in this determination
Is there any determinations of higher confidence from any agency concluding anything but this?

It has looked to me for a long time like this virus was originally harvested by, studied, and enhanced in laboratories.

It's been forever since I looked at it, but I believe the broad history was this:
  1. SARS-related COVs being initially studied at UNC Chappel Hill under Ralph Baric (DNI.gov)
  2. Obama administration passed moratorium on gain of function research (intelligence.house.gov)
  3. Research outsourced to Peter Daszak at Eco Health Alliance, who moves it to WIV (science.org)
  4. Ecohealth proposes to DARPA a plan to release an aerosolized coronavirus vaccine in bat caves in China and DARPA says "No" on the basis that China would get really mad about the biosafety issues. (US Right to Know - ODNI)
  5. Between one and three lab WIV lab researchers reportedly become ill with symptoms indistinguishable from Coronavirus in October or November preceding the big outbreak.(DNI), (Earlier ODNI assessment)(WSJ (Paywalled))
  6. Subsequent to the outbreak, the US Congress Oversight Committee documents a "PLA Presence at WIV". (Wikipedia)(oversight.house.gov)
  7. The Wuhan Wet market is blamed, closed, disinfected, and sealed. (NIH)
  8. In February the NIH starts receiving notifications about the outbreak and discusses the possibility of a lab leak. Fauci downplays this and informs his surrogates that this should not be the focus of any investigating. (Le Monde)(oversight.house.gov)
  9. By March it is indisputably a global problem
  10. Fauci initiates or otherwise commissions the "Nature paper" in which eight or so researchers initially determine that it looks like it came from a lab in leaked emails to Fauci, but are then convinced by Fauci to change their mind the next day in issuing their pre-print to Nature in which they all conclude "Zoonotic" despite their misgivings of a few days prior. (Le Monde)(oversight.house.gov)
  11. Nature publishes "Zoonotic consensus" paper (absent Fauci as an author despite him extensively working on it), and it becomes the canon of "science" that it can't possibly have emerged from a lab.
  12. Prominent Authors such as Kristian Andersen, who changed his position from "Lab" to "Zoonotic" almost overnight then receives very large monetary contributions from Fauci's NIH.(Homeland Security Committee - Origints of Covid-19)
  13. NIH Suspended and tchen terminated the Ecohealth grant because WIV would not provide required lab data and EcoHealth was not meeting compliance requirements.(US Government Accountability Office)
  14. Congress & Health & Human Services subsequently sanctions and debarred Daszak & EcoHealth for bad sanitary practices, risky expiriments, and non-reporting relative to lab viruses (house.oversight.gov)
  15. Three different government agencies determine a lab leak as most probable:
    - Department of Energy (moderate confidence)
    - FBI (moderate confidence)
    - CIA (leans toward lab leak but still not with high confidence) (WaPo)
  16. President Trump refers to Covid directly in the section of his UN speech about bioweapons, critisizing "reckless oversees experiments" as contributing to the COVID pandemic, implicitly referencing risky viral/biological-weapons research, calling for a new "international effort to enforce the Biological Weapons Convention" and ending "extremely risky research into bioweapons and man-made pathogens."(Economic Times)(Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)
  17. Whitehouse.gov publishes a page entitled "LAB LEAK - The True Origins of Covid-19" (whitehouse.gov)
  18. Covid.gov and covidtests.gov sites are updated and revamped with a "Lab Leak" section asserting that Covid-19 came from a Wuhan lab, criticizing Fauci and the natural-origin narrative (WaPo)
Meanwhile, the alleged bat or Pangolin that caused the outbreak, nor any of its offspring, has never been found. (WHO)

In addition, China has blocked access to full WIV records, animal inventories, and detailed staff health data. (WHO)

So at first glance, the notion that it was strictly zoonotic in origin requires far more of a leap of faith to believe than that it emerged from the WIV. No?
 
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Is there any determinations of higher confidence from any agency concluding anything but this?

It has looked to me for a long time like this virus was originally harvested by, studied, and enhanced in laboratories.

It's been forever since I looked at it, but I believe the broad history was this:
  1. Virus being initially studied at UNC Chappel Hill under Ralph Baric
  2. Obama administration passed moratorium on gain of function research
  3. Research outsourced to Peter Daszak at Eco Health Alliance, who moves it to WIV
  4. Ecohealth and WIV propose to CIA a plan to release a now enhanced version into a Chinese animal population to study a vaccination program of some kind, and the CIA or one of those alphabet agencies says "No" on the basis that China would get really mad.
  5. Between one and three lab WIV lab researchers become ill with symptoms indistinguishable from Coronavirus in October or November preceding the big outbreak.
  6. The WIV is shut down to be cleaned and taken over by a general in the Chinese military
  7. The Wuhan Wet market is blamed, scorched, and bulldozed
  8. In February the NIH starts receiving notifications about the outbreak and discusses the possibility of a lab leak. Fauci downplays this and informs his surrogates that this should not be the focus of any investigating
  9. By March it is indisputably a global problem
  10. Fauci initiates or otherwise commissions the "Nature" paper in which eight or so researchers initially determine that it looks like it came from a lab in leaked emails to Fauci, but are then convinced by Fauci to change their mind the next day in issuing their pre-print to Nature in which they all conclude "Zoonotic" despite their misgivings of a few days prior.
  11. Nature publishes "Zoonotic consensus" paper (absent Fauci as an author despite him extensively working on it), and it becomes the canon of "science" that it can't possibly have emerged from a lab.
  12. Prominent Authors such as Kristian Andersen, who changed his position from "Lab" to "Zoonotic" almost overnight then receives very large monetary contributions from Fauci's NIH.
  13. Congress subsequently sanctions Daszak for bad sanitary practices relative to lab viruses
  14. Three different government agencies determine a lab leak as most probable
  15. President Trump refers to Covid directly in the section of his UN speech about bioweapons.
  16. Whitehouse.gov publishes a page saying it leaked from the WIV.
Meanwhile, the alleged bat or Pangolin that caused the outbreak, nor any of its offspring, has never been found. So at first glance, the notion that it was strictly zoonotic in origin requires far more of a leap of faith to believe than that it emerged from the WIV. No?
No. "Congress", "President Trump", "and "Whitehouse.gov" are not medical specialists in any way, so anything you quote from them lacks medical credibility and doesn't belong in a scientific analysis. As for Andersen et al, there is nothing suspicious about a scientist who changes his mind after new discoveries are made. That's what science does, and that's what science SHOULD do.

It would be far more improbable for the original "sick animal" to be found instead of it just going away to die in the wild, so I'm amazed that you give that any weight in your argument.

There is no proof of the origin of the virus one way or the other, so playing the "blame game" is likely to be mere political posturing rather than a serious inquiry. We may never find out, and (as with UFOs/UAPs and other strange phenomena) nobody can credibly claim "We don't know but I know". It's pointless; how to deal with it now it's here is a far more significant question.
 
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Studying the virus can only tell you the most likely evolutionary path it took. Viruses are highly promiscuous and swap DNA in the wild in every cell they infect. So a particular sequence of DNA can suggest it was modified by humans but not absolutely prove it.

Conversely the Wuhan lab unsurprisingly did do extensive work on SARS and related viruses so the lab leak theory could only be proved if you could find verifiable records documenting some the assertions in your COVID-19 timeline. Since they would be government property from a Chinese state laboratory, the PRC is never going to agree that any such records exist and deny the validity of any that turn up. Assuming they haven't been burned.

In the end this is political theater. There's no court you could take Beijing to that could make them pay for a global pandemic.

My two cents
 
Is there any determinations of higher confidence from any agency concluding anything but this?
Why do you expect the Intelligence Community to know more now than they did then?
The scientists are quite confident it's zoonotic. But without actually finding the precursor virus in the wild, there's no evidence.
It has looked to me for a long time like this virus was originally harvested by, studied, and enhanced in laboratories.
Which virus, exactly? SARS was being studied in laboratories all around the world, and the researchers who did led the Covid response. Drosten in Berlin developed a working test within days, in January 2020, because he'd been studying SARS for years.
Ecohealth and WIV propose to CIA a plan to release a now enhanced version into a Chinese animal population to study a vaccination program of some kind, and the CIA or one of those alphabet agencies says "No" on the basis that China would get really mad.
I don't recall hearing this, do you have a source?

Between one and three lab WIV lab researchers become ill with symptoms indistinguishable from Coronavirus in October or November preceding the big outbreak.
Yes.
You need to be a conspiracy theorist to not believe that we wouldn't know if that man had this virus.

The WIV is shut down to be cleaned and taken over by a general in the Chinese military
Didn't hear this one, either.

In February the NIH starts receiving notifications about the outbreak and discusses the possibility of a lab leak.
Wrong timeline.
WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 30th, which equates to a red alert. They had kept everyone updated since January 5th.

Fauci downplays this and informs his surrogates that this should not be the focus of any investigating
He's right.
I'm sure I wrote about this, but it was 5 years ago.
Please understand that there are two questions:
1) did the virus evolve naturally in an animal host (zoonosis), or was it crafted? There is broad scientific consensus that it's zoonotic.
2) did the outbreak trace back to bat virus samples collected and held by the WIV? Since the closest form they have is RAT13, the answer is no.

You have to be a conspiracy theorist to accuse researchers who have dedicated their lives to keeping humanity safe from epidemics, and whose record shows that they are committed to transparency, of deception in this. Or you're looking for a scapegoat.
By March it is indisputably a global problem
WHO declared it a global problem on January 30th.
By March, Trump still refused to address it as such, while the rest of the world had been ramping up its response for a month.
Trump then needed to shift the blame, and the US is basically the only country that talks about the "China Virus". Divisionary tactics on health issues are bad, everyone knows this and it was explicitly stated, and the USA served as a cautionary tale.

All of this manufactured narrative is extremely icky because it gets invented by people I'd rather didn't exist. But if you have evidence, I'll be happy to look at it. Just don't expect people who have an axe to grind to be trustworthy, please.
 
Conversely the Wuhan lab unsurprisingly did do extensive work on SARS and related viruses so the lab leak theory could only be proved if you could find verifiable records documenting some the assertions in your COVID-19 timeline. Since they would be government property from a Chinese state laboratory, the PRC is never going to agree that any such records exist and deny the validity of any that turn up. Assuming they haven't been burned.
WHO went to Wuhan twice and didn't find anything. The research at the WIV was not secret, they hosted international guests all the time.
Rest assured that epidemiologists would not obscure the source of an outbreak if they knew where it originated.
 
It's not the epidemiologists I distrust. IIRC the first Chinese doctor(s) to sound the alarm in the Wuhan area were denounced by party officials. That does not give me confidence that any evidence at variance with the official PRC version of events will ever come out of China. IMO this is a dead end.
 
Is this also the case for RNA and RNA based viruses like the SARS-CoV-2 that causes Covid-19?
I recall this is the reason influenza has so many variants and the discussion I read indicated it was commonly observed viral behavior. You'd have to find a better source than me for SARS/COVID.
 
No. "Congress", "President Trump", "and "Whitehouse.gov" are not medical specialists in any way, so anything you quote from them lacks medical credibility and doesn't belong in a scientific analysis.
This isn't scientific analysis. It's a search for evidence of origin. Much of that evidence has come from oversight committees etc trying to find out. Quoting them is appropriate and reading what they discovered is important work.

As for Andersen et al, there is nothing suspicious about a scientist who changes his mind after new discoveries are made. That's what science does, and that's what science SHOULD do.
The point is that no new discoveries were made. Andersen wrote in FOIA discovered email communications that he believed the opposite thing that he subsequently signed onto the next day, with Dr. Fauci in those same emails actively contributing to the paper and asking not to be acknowledged as being a contributor.

If Fauci had been named as a co-author on this paper with a disclaimer regarding his conflict of interest, that would be honest at least. But instead he ghost wrote it through Andersen et al, and this dishonesty needed to be exposed by freedom of information requests exposing the intentional coverup of direct connections between the actual author(s) and the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

There is little to no "zoonotic consensus" in the scientific liturature apart from papers that were directly authored or co-authored by the parties accused of letting their research experiment escape from their own labs.

I want to be clear that I'm not claiming that the virus was man made. Rather that it was indeed of zoonotic origin and very very likely escaped from this poorly run facility.

It would be far more improbable for the original "sick animal" to be found instead of it just going away to die in the wild, so I'm amazed that you give that any weight in your argument.
The important point is that we have not yet found a pre-pandemic animal population carrying SARS-CoV-2 or its immediate ancestor. This is very relevant to the subject of this thread and goes to the heart of the matter I think.

There is no proof of the origin of the virus one way or the other, so playing the "blame game" is likely to be mere political posturing rather than a serious inquiry. We may never find out, and (as with UFOs/UAPs and other strange phenomena) nobody can credibly claim "We don't know but I know". It's pointless; how to deal with it now it's here is a far more significant question.
I disagree with you here. All of those committees you don't like above have dug up quite a pile of evidence. It's circumstantial and there is no definitive smoking gun. But we know a lot more about a potential lab release than we did five years ago, while we know exactly as much about a hypothetical pre-pandemic animal population carrying SARS-CoV-2.
 
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Ecohealth proposes to DARPA a plan to release an aerosolized coronavirus vaccine in bat caves in China and DARPA says "No" on the basis that China would get really mad about the biosafety issues. (US Right to Know - ODNI)
I don't recall hearing this, do you have a source?

I was editing sources in (and editing point 4 itself) while you were writing I think. I put my final version of point 4 in here.

Here is the original grant proposal. It was called "Project DEFUSE"

It was submitted by EcoHealth Alliance (with partners including the Wuhan Institute of Virology, among others) to DARPA. It proposed to study bat-borne coronaviruses, assess spillover risk, and develop "preemptive" interventions including bat vaccination or immune-modulation campaigns in bat populations.

DARPA rejected the proposal and it was never carried out.

Didn't hear this one, either.
Subsequent to the outbreak, the US Congress Oversight Committee documents a "PLA Presence at WIV". (Wikipedia)(oversight.house.gov)
Same thing as above. I was tightening this up while you were typing I think. The best reference I could find to this military intervention was in the House Oversight committee report, and edited the point to reflect their quote.
Please understand that there are two questions:
1) did the virus evolve naturally in an animal host (zoonosis), or was it crafted? There is broad scientific consensus that it's zoonotic.
2) did the outbreak trace back to bat virus samples collected and held by the WIV? Since the closest form they have is RAT13, the answer is no.
  1. broad consensus...when I went looking for it, I couldn't find papers who didn't have as contributors either Kristian Andersen or direct associates of Fauci, Daszak, or Baric. And I looked pretty hard.

    I want to be crystal clear that I am not alleging this is a man made virus. Rather that it is a virus of zoonotic origin which escaped a poorly run lab, which is the subject of this thread.

  2. We don't know what the WIV has because they won't disclose it, per the WHO.
You have to be a conspiracy theorist to accuse researchers who have dedicated their lives to keeping humanity safe from epidemics, and whose record shows that they are committed to transparency, of deception in this. Or you're looking for a scapegoat.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist any more! I am a recovered conspiracy theorist I think :)

I am doggedly committed to evidence.

I was deeply disturbed when I read the FOIA documents showing that Dr. Fauci was deceptively conspiring in FOIA'd email exchanges with Dr. Andersen to do the exact opposite of being transparent in the Nature paper by acting as a ghost writer. There was a reason that he didn't want to be named as a co-author and it was indeed a deceptive one.

And as per EcoHealth and Dr. Daszak, his record of keeping humanity safe speaks for itself. I believe there is a legitimate reason that the NIH suspended and then terminated the Ecohealth grants on the basis that the WIV would not provide required lab data and EcoHealth was not meeting compliance requirements (US Government Accountability Office), and likewise why Congress & Health & Human Services subsequently sanctioned and debarred Daszak & EcoHealth for bad sanitary practices, risky expiriments, and non-reporting relative to lab viruses (house.oversight.gov)

To deny these factual occurrences and insist that the virus must have come from some animal population which cannot be found is, in my view:
  1. to doggedly defend a theory which lacks evidence,
  2. to deny the obvious conspiracy that the FOIA emails exposed, and
  3. to simultaneously ignore documented evidence of sloppy lab safety and poor reporting from the same parties who have been implicated in the potential lab release.
While I do not believe there is incontrovertible evidence for a lab release, it seems to me that there is an awful lot more circumstantial evidence supporting it at this point than there is to support the idea of spillover from a source animal species which carried it into the Wuhan wet market. The evidence for this second claim remains just as elusive as it was on the day it was made.
 
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I was editing sources in (and editing point 4 itself) while you were writing I think. I put my final version of point 4 in here.
You changed the meaning quite a bit, from releasing a virus to applying a vaccine. It's better now.
Here is the original grant proposal. It was called "Project DEFUSE"

It was submitted by EcoHealth Alliance (with partners including the Wuhan Institute of Virology, among others) to DARPA. It proposed to study bat-borne coronaviruses, assess spillover risk, and develop "preemptive" interventions including bat vaccination or immune-modulation campaigns in bat populations.

DARPA rejected the proposal and it was never carried out.
Yes.
Which means it's not really relevant?
  1. broad consensus...when I went looking for it, I couldn't find papers who didn't have as contributors either Kristian Andersen or direct associates of Fauci, Daszak, or Baric. And I looked pretty hard.

    I want to be crystal clear that I am not alleging this is a man made virus. Rather that it is a virus of zoonotic origin which escaped a poorly run lab, which is the subject of this thread.

  2. We don't know what the WIV has because they won't disclose it, per the WHO.
You link to a presentation about the 2025 SAGO report, the report itself is at https://www.who.int/publications/m/...sory-group-for-the-origins-of-novel-pathogens . I recommend reading the executive summary, it closes:
External Quote:
To conclude, while a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals to humans is currently considered the best supported hypothesis by the available scientific data, until requests for further information are met or more scientific data becomes available, the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and how it entered the human population will remain inconclusive.
They have 4 hypotheses, and the non-zoonotic one is discarded.
Screenshot_20251128_063941.png

Screenshot_20251128_064143.png

Also have a look at the author list.

I was deeply disturbed when I read the FOIA documents showing that Dr. Fauci was deceptively conspiring in FOIA'd email exchanges with Dr. Andersen to do the exact opposite of being transparent in the Nature paper by acting as a ghost writer. There was a reason that he didn't want to be named as a co-author and it was indeed a deceptive one.
Show the sources. My take was that Dr. Fauci talked to them and changed their minds for sensible reasons. The ghostwriting accusation seems unwarranted.
 
This isn't scientific analysis. It's a search for evidence of origin. Much of that evidence has come from oversight committees etc trying to find out.
A search for evidence, either for or against a claim, is at the very heart of science. On the other hand, "oversight committees" in Congress are political entities, and the participants generally want to put their party's position in the best possible light. As far as I can determine, they seek testimony rather than evidence, and thus the public is supplied with third-hand information which may or may not represent the facts.
All of those committees you don't like above have dug up quite a pile of evidence. It's circumstantial and there is no definitive smoking gun.
That was my point.
 
The point is that no new discoveries were made. Andersen wrote in FOIA discovered email communications that he believed the opposite thing that he subsequently signed onto the next day, with Dr. Fauci in those same emails actively contributing to the paper and asking not to be acknowledged as being a contributor.
read https://www.metabunk.org/threads/whats-the-deal-with-fauci-emails-and-the-lab-leak-theory.12229/

People discuss evidence and change their minds. Science is 90% communication:
External Quote:
Though the arguments from Ron Fouchier and Christian Drosten are presented with more forcefulness than necessary, I am coming around to the view that a natural origin is more likely.
Note that it's not even Fauci who changed Collins' mind.

The pangolin is the missing host, and its evidence changed the outlook of the authors.

The emails show Fauci's comments, he didn't do any "editing". He doesn't have the power to change the paper against the authors' will.
 
Fauci initiates or otherwise commissions the "Nature paper" in which eight or so researchers initially determine that it looks like it came from a lab in leaked emails to Fauci, but are then convinced by Fauci to change their mind the next day in issuing their pre-print to Nature in which they all conclude "Zoonotic" despite their misgivings of a few days prior. (Le Monde)(oversight.house.gov)
You can read the whole exchange at https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23316400-farrar-fauci-comms/ (in reverse chronological order).

Here's an excerpt:
Screenshot_20251128_130455.png


That's not what the Republicans said, is it?
Their committee page that you cited cuts out most of what the witnesses said, and is therefore not informative.

Please provide quotes and not just links. It works better, and Metabunk requires it.
 
I want to be clear that I'm not claiming that the virus was man made. Rather that it was indeed of zoonotic origin and very very likely escaped from this poorly run facility.
...
The important point is that we have not yet found a pre-pandemic animal population carrying SARS-CoV-2 or its immediate ancestor. This is very relevant to the subject of this thread and goes to the heart of the matter I think.
This seems inconsistent. Would not a pre-pandemic population of animals carrying the virus have to exist in either case -- either to directly infect the first human patient, or to be taken from that population into the lab? Finding or not finding such a population would not seem to differentiate between those two hypothetical origins, to me.

Or am I missing something in your proposed chain of events? 9Certainly this is possible... ^_^)
 
You link to a presentation about the 2025 SAGO report, the report itself is at https://www.who.int/publications/m/...sory-group-for-the-origins-of-novel-pathogens . I recommend reading the executive summary, it closes:

External Quote:

To conclude, while a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals to humans is currently considered the best supported hypothesis by the available scientific data, until requests for further information are met or more scientific data becomes available, the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and how it entered the human population will remain inconclusive.
They have 4 hypotheses, and the non-zoonotic one is discarded.
Screenshot_20251128_063941.png

Screenshot_20251128_064143.png

Also have a look at the author list.
I've read it. The important part to me relative to answering this question on a balance of probabilities, which is the best we can do given the evidence at hand, are these two bits:
External Quote:

It is important to note that SAGO did not have access to original raw data from any source in preparing this report. SAGO and WHO have requested further information from Member States, - including the Governments of China, Germany and the United States of America. Information was sought to clarify critical unknowns following the publication of the WHO-China March 2021 report and SAGO 2022 report, as well as data used to generate government reports. However, at the time of writing, all of the required information had not been provided to WHO. The focus of deliberations in this SAGO report is therefore predominantly based on available peer-reviewed scientific data.
External Quote:

Much of the information needed to assess hypothesis #2, of an accidental laboratory related event, either during field investigations or a breach in laboratory biosafety or biosecurity, has not been made available to WHO or SAGO. WHO has made several requests to the Government of China to provide health records of staff and documentation on biosafety and biosecurity practices and procedures in laboratories in Wuhan, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and the Chinese Centers for Disease Control in Wuhan as recommended in the 2022 SAGO Preliminary Report (SAGO, 2022). Without information to fully assess the nature of the work on coronaviruses in Wuhan laboratories, nor information about the conditions under which this work was done, it is not possible for SAGO to assess whether the first human infection(s) may have resulted due to a research related event or breach in laboratory biosafety. It can therefore not be ruled out, nor can it be proven until more information is provided.

SAGO reiterates its request to all governments — especially those where the earliest human cases were confirmed— to share information, data, and findings from investigations of the earliest human cases, interventions and testing in markets and sites of animal breeding including husbandry of captive wildlife, as well as any potential research-related accidents or breaches in biosafety including evidence regarding studies that may have involved culture and/or research on immediate genetic precursors to12 SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory. SAGO likewise reiterates its request for any researchers, scientists or governments with information on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 to make it available to WHO and SAGO.
The work to understand the origins of SARS-CoV-2 remains unfinished.
In essence, they explain that they have been denied the evidence to assess hypothesis 2 - an accidental laboratory-related event, which may have involved exposure to the virus during field research or a breach in laboratory biosafety procedures, and include an admonishment to various governments to please produce this data. They further explain that since they have been denied the data, all they can work with is what is published in peer reviewed studies.

The report also explains that the two original WHO visits as follows:

Visit 1:
External Quote:

their purpose was not to understand the origins of SARS-CoV-2, but rather to see first-hand the efforts to reduce the spread, care for patients and protect health workers.
Visit 2:
External Quote:

One year later, in February 2021, WHO and China organized a second international mission to China to work with government officials, technical partners and researchers in China specifically to investigate the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The terms of reference for this mission were agreed upon by China and WHO in July 2020...[and] concluded without being able to identify the origins of SARS-CoV-2, nor how the pandemic began (Koopmans et al., 2021; WHO, 2021).
Recommendations from the international and Chinese team included conducting further studies inside and outside of China to trace the origin of SARS-CoV-2
Looping back to the interview with Shi Zhengli, she tells Science that they have exactly the information that SAGO would need to assess hypothesis #2, and yet they did not provide this information to SAGO on request. This is extremely suspect IMO.

External Quote:

(4) Is it possible that someone associated with the institute became infected in some other way, for instance while collecting, sampling, or handling bats?

A: Such a possibility did not exist. Recently we tested the sera from all staff and students in the lab and nobody is infected by either bat SARSr-CoV or SARS-CoV-2. To date, there is "zero infection" of all staff and students in our institute.
 
The important part to me relative to answering this question on a balance of probabilities, which is the best we can do given the evidence at hand,
there is no evidence at all that the Chinese were nefarious

the issue has become politicized from the American end, and so it's political from the Chinese end, where they're in a lose/lose situation since nobody's going to believe their evidence is genuine if it doesn't say that they're guilty.

You really, really need to stick to the evidence instead of making something up (and ignoring what you don't like), or next thing you know, you'll believe in UFOs simply because we can't identify some of them.
 
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