Calvine Photo Hoax Theories

Well...I guess someone has to refute all the wild stuff that gets made up about it.
well.. technically you're making stuff up too. like when you claim the photographer must know of its "fame". and what the writings in a personal memo, with no date or authorship, means etc.

Don't get me wrong it's fine if you want to join in on the brainstorming of ideas and opinions, i just don't think it's cool to criticize others for also being interested in the topic.
 
In so doing, I have to peruse enough of it to at least know what they are claiming

Well that's just it. You really do have to watch all the interviews with Colonel Charles Halt, Sgt Jim Penniston, etc, etc, to really gain a sense of what was and is going on with the Rendlesham incident, for example. To do so is to be pretty certain that something more than a lighthouse was behind the story. And yes the story has been very much embellished over the years....with Penniston even being caught out when his 'notebook' ( allegedly recorded on the night ) contained the same wrong date for the incident that was in the Halt memo. It's only when one is aware of a story in meticulous detail that the loopholes really emerge.

The Rendlesham incident has a huge amount of detail and statements ( and changing stories ). By contrast the Calvine incident could not be more sparse. No original witnesses identified. Just a single poor quality ( for the 1990s ) photo and a bunch of hearsay plus an MOD 'note'. And in fact the photo is really not even the best hoax...if it is one. The McMinnville UFO, with its two photos, is much better.
 
well.. technically you're making stuff up too. like when you claim the photographer must know of its "fame". and what the writings in a personal memo, with no date or authorship, means etc.

Not really. I'm just applying Occam's razor most of the time. Nobody really has any idea how the Calvine photo was created...and in the absence of the witness coming forth I doubt anyone ever will...so I tend to go for ' what is the easiest way it could have been created ?'.

What I mean by that is, a method that results in the least amount of 'but the clouds are upside down' or ' you can't really be suggesting that's a man in a rowing boat' or having to argue over the fine details of 3D reflections or trying to find an island on a lake or find the right Xmas decoration or spot the string or...whatever.

To me the simplest is either an image placed on a piece of glass...or...a photo of a photo, with the UFO stuck on. I think it has been demonstrated here that both of those work.
 
Not really
yes really :)

.so I tend to go for ' what is the easiest way it could have been created ?
i know. i still think the easiest way is to go to an airshow and hang a moldy ravioli from a tree. (ok maybe not a moldy ravioli specifically, i just like saying that phrase)

But people brainstorming other possibilities is ok too. and its ok for you to refute them once or twice.
 
My attitude to UFOs as aliens is not that they 'can't' exist but that there is precious little evidence that they do.
And yet there are people well-versed in physics who can tell you that the behavior of some sightings can't occur as described in our atmosphere. The unmistakable conclusion is that those events are either completely misunderstood, mis-described, deliberate inventions, or hoaxes. These are the kinds of people you might be inclined to think of as "diehard skeptics", but they're not; they're speaking from their knowledge of facts.
 
@enilc

Come on, enilc, tell us what you really think without telling us what you really think.
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:D
 
I have long suspected that the Rendlesham incident, 10 years earlier, was a cover story for something else. Perhaps a nuclear missile falling off a plane and into the forest.
...To do so is to be pretty certain that something more than a lighthouse was behind the story.

Well, going off-topic; re. the Rendlesham Forest sightings (thread https://www.metabunk.org/threads/rendlesham-forest-ufo-incident.13457/) there were other factors- Colonel Halt's questionable actions, the failure to interpret a radiation monitor's output appropriately, several other things- but there is no reliable evidence of any type of cover-up of a dramatic physical cause.

If a store or component had been lost from a USAF aircraft from RAF Woodbridge or RAF Bentwaters, it is inconceivable that Col. Halt, deputy base commander at Bentwaters, would be unaware.
Had a bomb or missile been lost, it is again inconceivable that UK authorities would not be informed. Accidents happen, and the Thatcher government was highly supportive of US foreign policy. The USAF would have no authority to independently conduct retrieval operations outside of its bases in the UK (notwithstanding any hypothetical agreements about final handling).
Had someone been seriously injured or killed by a falling store, or a lost store later detonated, the fact that the USAF had contacted Suffolk police to report a UFO sighting would not go down well.
However, the fact that local police were contacted- and attended, and documented their findings- suggests (as the PCs suspected) nothing dramatic was going on.

RAF Woodbridge hosted arguably the best possible unit for rapidly retrieving a sensitive lost store from a wooded area, the 67th Air Rescue and Recovery Squadron:
External Quote:
The 67th ARRS operated Lockheed HC-130H/N/P Hercules fixed wing aircraft, and heavy duty HH-53 Jolly Green Giant helicopters, and was assigned an air rescue and special operations mission.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Woodbridge.
The HH-53 would have been capable of lifting any store carried by the A-10s of Woodbridge and Bentwaters, or indeed any single store carried by F-4s or F-111s, also stationed in the UK at that time. For instance, the B-61 nuclear bomb, which F-111s could have been tasked to carry, weighs approx. 715 lbs/ 324 kg. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sikorsky_MH-53.
There is no indication that the unit, or its personnel, were involved in any way with the "UFO" events.

No-one found any indication of an impact site or a clear-up; no unusual movements of heavy vehicles in the forest was recorded: the areas of the supposed sightings, and Halt's expedition, were accessible to the public at all times.
No police or military cordon of any sort.
A small number of Suffolk policemen and a local forestry worker who visited the site at the time/ shortly after saw no unusual signs; the forester explained some trees had axe-marks indicating they were due to be felled, so presumably he or his colleagues had been working there not long before, and would be familiar with the environment.
 
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You'll have to be more specific. I disagree with a lot of what you post.

Edit to add: I'll just mute your posts so that I don't hurt your feelings anymore.
You missed the point. I'm asking YOU to be more specific.
 
s/he doesn't know/remember which comment you are referring to.
It's a general statement referring to a number of posts; enilc has a habit of downvoting posts (not just mine) with no explanation of exactly WHAT he disagrees with. He is the phantom dissenter, seldom posting anything except his downvotes, and playing the chameleon by not clarifying his own position on anything.
 
I've always found it tricky to understand what we're actually seeing in the photo—and for once, I'm not talking about the blurry diamond-shaped object or the "jet." What about the surrounding landscape, and most of all, the fence? Something really looks off, probably because of the rather minimalistic composition. I still think the whole scene could be a reflection in water, but if it's not, it's worth trying to figure out a few details. The fence is definitely the most intriguing element.
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At first, I just assumed the photo showed a large portion of the fence, but I've since realized that's not the case. To get a better sense of the scene, I created an "expanded" version of the photo in Photoshop—imagining what the view might have looked like to the photographer. I used rough estimates based on the typical height of farm fences to construct the image.
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Of course, this is just a wild guess. But the fence reconstruction isn't entirely speculative—it's based on the approximate dimensions of similar fences, along with Robinson's estimate of the width of each section. The actual fence could have been slightly taller or shorter, but probably not by much. (I doubt a knee-high fence would make sense in this kind of setting.) The angles of the individual fence posts are also taken directly from the original photograph.
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That said, I still think the most likely explanation is that the photo was staged using a small cardboard UFO silhouette attached to a sheet of glass, with the scene deliberately composed to avoid any distinguishable landmarks that could reveal the location.
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But without that subtle hint of a fence and a few branches, the composition would have looked even less believable—perhaps explaining why it was arranged this way in the first place.

Just my humble opinion.
 
If the picture shows a water surface (reflection hypothesis) then my guess is the fence sits higher than the water, over a slope or escarpment and the whole scene is taken looking downwards. Else, if the picture shows the sky (no reflection) then I find @Andreas' reconstruction in post #453 to be quite good and plausible.
 
It's hard to explain how the "land" at the bottom looks exactly like water ripples.

They do look a bit like that. But I feel there's a possible suggestion of land contours as well.
What might be ripples at the left of the picture might be bushes or the crowns of copses.

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The photo's so damn ambiguous.
 
They do look a bit like that. But I feel there's a possible suggestion of land contours as well.
What might be ripples at the left of the picture might be bushes or the crowns of copses.

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The photo's so damn ambiguous.
I think somebody mentioned this before, but to me much of that "Distant hilltops" or "water ripples" looks like lengths of wire no longer under tension but still loosely attached to the fence. The temporary stake to the left hints at some damage to the fence at a prior time.
wire fence 2.jpg
wire fence 1.jpg


IF that is the case, it's a thinner wire than what is still well-anchored on the fence...

But yeah, the pic is bad enough that almost everything in it can be interpreted several ways.
 
I think somebody mentioned this before, but to me much of that "Distant hilltops" or "water ripples" looks like lengths of wire no longer under tension but still loosely attached to the fence. The temporary stake to the left hints at some damage to the fence at a prior time.
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IF that is the case, it's a thinner wire than what is still well-anchored on the fence...

But yeah, the pic is bad enough that almost everything in it can be interpreted several ways.
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I agree. I think we're looking at a combined barbed wire and electric fence, and that the "knobs" on the top (electric) wire are either insulators or wire tensioners.
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And yes, I do believe we can see loose wires hanging down from the fence. As for the strange-looking "landscape" that resembles a shoreline, it might actually be a distant landscape. The reason it appears so odd could be that the scene was photographed through a sheet of glass.
 
They do look a bit like that. But I feel there's a possible suggestion of land contours as well.
What might be ripples at the left of the picture might be bushes or the crowns of copses.
Recently, I was out photographing cranes in the Swedish countryside and couldn't resist taking a shot of a fence with a partly cloudy sky in the background.
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The location looked like this. The fence was slightly above where I was standing, with hills and trees in the background.
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My point is that it's absolutely possible for a background landscape to appear as soft, organic shapes behind a fence—even when there are both hills and trees in the distance. I held the camera at face height, so there was no need for low angles or anyone lying in the grass.
 
I spent my vacation walking around the Swedish countryside and couldn't stop thinking about the Calvine photo. I ended up taking some pictures of my own—this one is of an old birch tree in my mother-in-law's yard.

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My photo and the Calvine photo.

To me, it's a perfect match for the branches seen in the Calvine image. In other words: no, they're not upside down—just ordinary birch branches. Could it still be a reflection in water? Absolutely. But the branches themselves? They're clearly birch, right side up.

Also, the "bushes" in the lower left corner of the Calvine photo have always looked to me like nearby branches. I took a few shots of a Scots pine and I'm now convinced: it's a close-up branch, and the "leaves" are pine needles—likely at a distance of just one or two meters. The same approximate distance as the small cardboard UFO.

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The Calvine "bushes" and a branch of pine.

This is important for several reasons, but mainly because the tiny pine needles are in (almost) perfect focus—just like the "UFO." If the UFO were truly in the distance, it wouldn't make sense for it to be in the same sharp focus as nearby objects. That alignment strongly suggests the object was much closer to the camera than claimed.
 
If the UFO were truly in the distance, it wouldn't make sense for it to be in the same sharp focus as nearby objects.
Branches and/or grasses might be moving in a breeze, but the one thing that I think we can agree about is that the fence posts are both immobile and quite close. An examination of the photo shows that contrary to your supposition, it's the "UFO" that's in sharper focus and the fence posts are in much poorer focus, which suggests that the camera focus is set to the middle distance, not close up. In other words, the object and the fence posts are not at the same distance at all. If I saw a UFO (or something that could be imagined to be a UFO) that is where I would focus.
 
Branches and/or grasses might be moving in a breeze, but the one thing that I think we can agree about is that the fence posts are both immobile and quite close. An examination of the photo shows that contrary to your supposition, it's the "UFO" that's in sharper focus and the fence posts are in much poorer focus, which suggests that the camera focus is set to the middle distance, not close up. In other words, the object and the fence posts are not at the same distance at all. If I saw a UFO (or something that could be imagined to be a UFO) that is where I would focus.
Couldn't that mean that the UFO was close and in focus and the fence is out of focus because it's too far away?
 
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Branches and/or grasses might be moving in a breeze, but the one thing that I think we can agree about is that the fence posts are both immobile and quite close. An examination of the photo shows that contrary to your supposition, it's the "UFO" that's in sharper focus and the fence posts are in much poorer focus, which suggests that the camera focus is set to the middle distance, not close up. In other words, the object and the fence posts are not at the same distance at all. If I saw a UFO (or something that could be imagined to be a UFO) that is where I would focus.
The problem is that we assume we're looking at a distant landscape scene—but I don't think we are. The most distant object in the image (aside from the clouds) is the fence. According to Robinson, it's about ten meters away, and that sounds about right to me. The branches above are at roughly the same distance, perhaps a bit closer. Then we have the "UFO," the "jet," and the pine branch. I believe what we're actually looking at is something more like this:

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I know—it's almost impossible to say with certainty what's in focus and what's not, due to the extremely poor quality of the photo. I had a photo lab print the best available digital version on photo paper, in the same size as the surviving photocopy.
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And as an amateur observer, it really looks like the pine branch and the UFO are the two objects most in focus. The fence and the overhead branches appear much less sharp, as if they are farther away. This is something we really need to consider carefully: if the fence is about 10 meters away, the branch in the bottom left corner is likely only a meter or so from the camera—about one-tenth that distance. Meanwhile, the "UFO" is supposedly far off in the distance. And yet, we can clearly see each and every pine needle. To me, that's the key to debunking this photo.
 
Couldn't that mean that the UFO was close and in focus and the fence is out of focus because it's too far away?
Yeah, that's the thing—we tend to view the Calvine photo as a picture of a distant Scottish landscape, but I'm not so sure that's accurate. I really believe that everything in the image (except for the clouds, of course) is actually quite close to the camera. The fence appears to be the most distant object, with the branches at the top of the image at roughly the same distance. Then we have the nearby branch and the "ufo" (to me a cardboard cut-out)—both seemingly at a similar, much closer range. In other words, most of the elements in the photo are likely just one or two meters away from the camera.
 
I think we're looking at a combined barbed wire and electric fence, and that the "knobs" on the top (electric) wire are either insulators or wire tensioners.
There's just not enough data available in the photo to make anything other than an educated guess.
It could be electric fencing, or it could just be sheeps wool or horsehair, or simply knots in the barbed wire. Electric fencing seems less likely since there's not obvious insulators (little plastic sheaths) near the posts. (see photo below).
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with insulators
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Recently, I asked David Clarke for his thoughts on the Calvine photo. He was kind enough to answer all my questions, and honestly, his insights helped me make more sense of the case. Clarke has a strong interest in folklore and storytelling, and for him, the photo itself isn't necessarily the central issue. He consistently referred to the various accounts and testimonies from people loosely connected to the case.

When I presented several possible ways the photo could have been faked, Clarke responded:

"There is a difference between thinking the photo is a hoax and proving it."

Yes, of course—but that's kind of the point. The burden of proof doesn't lie with the skeptic. If the photo can be faked, then it's worthless as evidence of anything extraordinary—especially given that the photographer remains anonymous.

Even more interestingly, I asked Clarke directly about his personal opinion: was the photo a hoax, a genuine image of something alien, or a misidentification? Since he has spent years promoting the case, I think it's only fair to ask what he actually believes. His answer:

"I'm not sure why my opinion matters but I think it's either a clever hoax or a genuine photograph showing military technology. These are the only two explanations, IMO."

Personally, I find this very telling. Clarke—who knows the case inside and out—believes the photo is either a hoax or secret military tech. Not aliens. Not something unexplainable. Just two very terrestrial possibilities. And to me, the "secret military craft" theory is, frankly, extremely unlikely too. I mean, the story told by the alleged eyewitness doesn't add up with this being a terrestrial craft. This being a secret military vessel automatically disqualifies the testimony from the alleged eyewitness. And if the eyewitness is lying, why believe anything of the story?

Clarke's broader interest in the case is best explained in his own words:

"As a folklorist and journalist I am interested in stories about people and the extraordinary things they believe."

And I completely agree with him on that. It's genuinely fascinating to hear people tell stories about UFOs, gods, goblins, or elves. But the Calvine case isn't just being told as a story—it's often presented as evidence of something extraordinary. That's where we need to draw a clear line. Anecdotes and belief are not proof.
 
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There's just not enough data available in the photo to make anything other than an educated guess.
It could be electric fencing, or it could just be sheeps wool or horsehair, or simply knots in the barbed wire. Electric fencing seems less likely since there's not obvious insulators (little plastic sheaths) near the posts. (see photo below).
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with insulators
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Well, I don't quite agree with you. One of the wires really does look like barbed wire—the symmetrical spacing between the "knobs" strongly suggests it. However, the top wire shows no such features. Could the top wire simply be a plain steel wire? Possibly, but if so, why? To me, this suggests the top wire might be electrified—but I'll admit, that's just speculation.

As for the hair/grass/whatever it is hanging from the fence—yes, you're right, it could be almost anything. But to me, it's clearly something hanging from the fence, not part of a distant landscape.
 
However, the top wire shows no such features. Could the top wire simply be a plain steel wire? Possibly, but if so, why?
That way of setting up fences seems to be common in that area. That upper blank wire with tighteners is for making the fence posts stable, only with nailed on barbed wire it would be wobbly.
 

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I'm probably wrong about the stability. What can be said is that the upper wire being blank and the second being barbed looks like a typical feature. I'm not a farmer though, could be typical for the whole of Scotland and England.
 

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Yes, it's just a plane wire in my opinion used to prevent injury to horses leaning over it.
Sure, that's absolutely possible—and frankly, it doesn't really matter. But as I mentioned earlier, what we're seeing is actually just a small portion of the fence. The hoaxer was probably looking at something like this when he snapped his faked UFO photos:
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The top wire is bare, the second wire is barbed, and the rest of the fence—as well as the surrounding landscape that could help identify the location—is out of view. To me, it definitely appears to be a photo of a typical farmer's fence, the type often seen in Scotland. But everything visible in the image is most likely located between the fence and the camera. Nothing, except for the clouds, appears to be in the distance. A typical pine needle is about 5-10 cm, and I think the "UFO" is about the same size.
 
When I presented several possible ways the photo could have been faked, Clarke responded:

"There is a difference between thinking the photo is a hoax and proving it."

Yes, of course—but that's kind of the point. The burden of proof doesn't lie with the skeptic. If the photo can be faked, then it's worthless as evidence of anything extraordinary—especially given that the photographer remains anonymous.

Agree with the burden of proof being with the claimant, and in this case, the people continuing to claim that the remaining photo shows something unusual (the original claimants are unidentified and so aren't available to be questioned as far as we know).

I'm less sure about " If the photo can be faked, then it's worthless as evidence of anything extraordinary...", though it can show how the photo might have been produced.
Several theories about how the picture was made have been discussed (and some convincing recreations posted) here, but they cannot all be correct. -To clarify, I think it's highly likely that the picture, and its lost siblings, was a deliberate hoax, and that hoax may well have used one or more of the methods that have been proposed.

The low quality of the photo and the limited in-picture evidence re. location- essentially a fence and some bits of foliage- and absence of any reliable indication of the object's distance/ size make it very difficult to debunk. Maybe this was the intention of the photographer.
The Calvine photo is an analogue film-captured photograph, so digital manipulation can be ruled out.

But more generally, I'd guess many photos could be faked. This is a cornerstone of Moon landing denialist belief, despite the massively overwhelming, utterly convincing, and internally consistent evidence of successful human Moon landings.
(The Calvine photo lacks any such supporting evidence except one anonymous account.)

However, we have very few images of the surface of Venus, all from Venera landers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera):
960px-Foto_de_Venera_9.png

Picture from Venera 9, 1975;

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Picture from Venera 10, 1975. Venera 13, Venera 14 (1981) also took photos.

The state agencies of the USSR had a long history of photo manipulation, including in the space programme,
External Quote:
After cosmonaut Valentin Bondarenko died in a training accident in 1961, the Soviet government airbrushed him out of photographs of the first group of cosmonauts. As Bondarenko had already appeared in publicly available photographs, the deletions led to rumours of cosmonauts dying in failed launches. Both Bondarenko's existence and the nature of his death were secret until 1986.
Wikipedia, Censorship of images in the Soviet Union; the USSR also had a history of state-endorsed scientific fraud (notably Lysenkoism).

It wouldn't be too difficult to fake the above pictures... ;)

(On a more sinister note, I remember a schoolteacher telling us kids that some people believed that the 1960 Sharpeville massacre in South Africa was exaggerated, and the photo of casualties in the history book we were using might have been a fake).

If an image can be faked, or a similar photo produced using mundane (or at least normal terrestrial) means, it isn't evidence in itself that the original is faked. An authentic, low quality photo of a small bright light in the sky, perhaps a distant airliner, might be relatively easy to replicate using hoaxing techniques, but that doesn't alter the authenticity of the original.

However, the highly dubious provenance of the Calvine photo, its low quality and what we know about alien spacecraft (nothing, except there's no testable evidence that they exist) and what we know about fakery and tall tails (common) and British tabloid newspapers (sometimes dodgy) might lead a reasonable person to conclude that that photo is probably part of a hoax.

Despite David Clarke's suspicions, @Andreas must be right that the original account of the event rules out any likely terrestrial aircraft, even if we allow for some misjudgement of distance/ size/ speed and unintentional exaggeration or poor recall.
 
In the end you've got to make up your own mind. What's more likely, a photo hoax or a machine, whether manmade or Alien, that has anti-gravity/reactionless drive drifting across the sky with no other witnesses? To me the odds are pretty clear.

I trust Feynman's judgement, and he said that anti-gravity is not even theoretically possible. Reactionless drive? And no witnesses? Versus photo hoax, which is as common as salt. I did trick photography as a kid. I could have done this hoax photo.

Saying that one doesn't believe it's Aliens but likely a secret military thing is nonsensical. It's just a cop-out to make it seem less outlandish. To make oneself look less outlandish. But it's just as outlandish.

I mean everything is a judgement call, isn't it? I've ruefully joked that somehow the item I picked up at the store is not the item I have in my hand at home. I have the distinct memory of very carefully choosing Hormel Chili - No Beans, and here I am holding a can of Hormel Chili - With Beans. Lousy, stinking beans. I mean I just wouldn't do it, man. There's something supernatural at work! Spooky! Maybe I'm in a glitchy simulation... Poltergeists? Or am I just Dum?
 
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If an image can be faked, or a similar photo produced using mundane (or at least normal terrestrial) means, it isn't evidence in itself that the original is faked.
Oh no, it's by no means proof that the Calvine photo is a fake. But the thing is—we don't need to prove it's a fake. Given the lack of information, that's not even possible. What we can prove, however, is that a photo like this could have been faked back in 1990. And in this context, that's enough.

I think we both agree that the Calvine photo is most likely a deliberate hoax. Personally, I find it pretty much useless as evidence of anything extraordinary, simply because it can be faked. And if something can be faked, it just doesn't carry much evidentiary weight on its own.

It's true that most photos can be faked—and even in 1990, people had the tools and know-how to do it. That's why provenance is crucial when assessing credibility. Who took the photo? When and where? Is there any corroborating evidence? In the case of Calvine, all we have is the photo. Nothing more.

Just to be clear: I'm not saying every photo that could be faked is a fake. But if all we've got is an anonymous image with zero supporting context—and it could be easily staged using techniques available at the time—then it's not reliable evidence. No matter how intriguing it might look.

This is why I found David Clarke's response so interesting. He agrees that the photo could very well be a fake—in fact, it's one of his two main hypotheses. The other possibility he entertains is that it shows some kind of secret military craft (possibly American). But that's a huge claim. And with no information to support the existence of such a craft in 1990, a blurry, easily-faked photo just isn't enough to justify it.

My point is this: we've been presented with a strange-looking photo, claimed by some to depict an unknown object hovering in the Scottish countryside. Figures like Robinson argue that it's not a hoax and that the "craft" is a large, distant object. But if we can recreate a similar image using basic trick photography from 1990, that alone is enough reason to dismiss the case until more data comes to light.

To me, the Calvine photo is not evidence of anything extraordinary. And as Hitchens's razor puts it: What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
 
This is why I found David Clarke's response so interesting. He agrees that the photo could very well be a fake—in fact, it's one of his two main hypotheses. The other possibility he entertains is that it shows some kind of secret military craft (possibly American). But that's a huge claim. And with no information to support the existence of such a craft in 1990, a blurry, easily-faked photo just isn't enough to justify it.
Depends on where one assigns probabilities, I suppose. If you asked me to name two possible explanations for the picture, hoax by the photographer would definitely be one, hoax perpetrated by some other party and photographed by someone who was fooled by it would be the other. But those do not seem to me to be equally probable, I'd put a lot more money on the photographer being the hoaxer than the victim as the methods that I can think of to set up a hoax pic are easier than to set up a hoax UFO that is then photographed by somebody else.

Now, if you combined all sorts of hoaxes and hoaxsters into one pile, and THEN asked for a second choice of possible explanations, I guess "secret military test of something" would be a good candidate -- perhaps a drone balloon/dirigible or something. The objections to that are formidable, so I'd not think it likely at all, hoax remains the clear favorite, to my mind. But "secret military thing that didn't pan out or surface in the intervening years" seems much more likely than, say, aliens from Omicron Perseii 8.

All that ruminated over, to my mind hoax is so overwhelmingly more likely as an explanation that it is not worth much picking a second choice. But if I had to, my "Beetlebaum" would be military something-or-other.

Beetlebaum (sometimes "Beetle Bomb") was a fictional horse in a fictional horse race narrated over the "Spike Jones and His City Slickers" rendition of "The William Tell Overture." Beetlebaum showed up in at least one other Spike Jones tune, as the archetypal horse that comes in ridiculously far behind every other horse in the race. Not just the loser, but the loser by a LOT.
 
Beetlebaum (sometimes "Beetle Bomb") was a fictional horse in a fictional horse race narrated over the "Spike Jones and His City Slickers" rendition of "The William Tell Overture." Beetlebaum showed up in at least one other Spike Jones tune, as the archetypal horse that comes in ridiculously far behind every other horse in the race. Not just the loser, but the loser by a LOT.
Childhood memory unlocked! Oh, so last millenium... Sunday morning children's radio show in New Zealand. I still remember other 'classics' like Gossamer Wump, Rindercella (who slopped her dripper), and Bad Jelly the Witch. Thanks for the nostalgia.
 
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