Clarke, on the other hand, is a far more down-to-earth character, and his main hypothesis seems to be that it's a hoax
This post will cover a lot of ground and is a response to the claim that a hoax is Clarke's
main hypothesis. Tbh this is extremely disappointing to hear given Clarke has led the public to believe a black project is his main hypothesis, as I will demonstrate.
Clarke has not
imo examined the model hoax hypothesis in good faith. His photography expert Andrew Robinson has all but dismissed it, such as by concluding the object is ~30m in size. The following analysis on their approach includes my opinions that I hope pass muster on Metabunk - I have provided evidence to support them.
* * * * *
Here in 2023 Clarke is inaccurately presenting Wim van Utrecht's "Christmas star" hypothesis with a 60cm patterned lampshade. This presentation bears no resemblance to van Utrecht's reconstruction, does not accurately convey how the star was photographed (either by van Utrecht or - allegedly - by the hoaxers), and makes the hypothesis look silly. The very features of the specific ornament van Utrecht used for his photos are what makes his hypothesis compelling (shape, size, glitter coating, availability).
Robinson told me (personal email) this was
not an attempt at a reconstruction, yet the caption on Clarke's blog reads: "Is the Calvine UFO a Christmas tree ornament? In 2023 we tried to
reproduce the hoax in the presence of a live studio audience."
(As an aside, Clarke's blog post link to van Utrecht's paper is broken, so readers can't easily
check his research for themselves.)
(c) David Clarke, reproduced for research, study, criticism, review, parody and satire
Source: CALVINE UFO REVISITED, David Clarke, June 2024
With this next statement from the same blog, I can't come to any other conclusion but that
imo Clarke is not approaching the hoax hypotheses in good faith:
External Quote:
The proponents of these [hoax] theories are all convinced they have 'solved' the mystery. But they cannot all have solved it as the theories are mutually contradictory: the UFO cannot be both a reflection of a rock and a dangling ornament.
...which again is super frustrating if a hoax is now his main hypothesis, or is even on his list of plausible hypotheses. He's mocking the certainty with which debunkers each believe their pet theory, a comment that is completely irrelevant to whether any of them turn out to be correct. Why does it matter that different theories are mutually contradictory? Where is the problem in the idea that some debunkers must be wrong in order for one debunker to be right?
He repeated himself in this tweet:
External Quote:
But what about a dangling Christmas ornament or even a rock in a pond? These are the three most popular explanations. But logically it can't be all three of them at once?!
Source: https://x.com/shuclarke/status/1873735746101932307
To be frank, those statements are so intellectually bankrupt that I lost respect for Clarke in one fell swoop. (I acknowledge the value of his extensive research on the case.)
* * * * *
When describing van Utrect's Xmas star theory, Clarke acknowledges the possibility of an "ingenious" use of model planes, but then later in the article he
assumes the planes are real
in order to dismiss theories that other mundane objects could have been used for the UFO:
External Quote:
Skeptic Mick West has suggested the UFO could be something quite ordinary such as a hovering kite or perhaps a balloon or airship. But this and the other theories do not satisfactorily explain the presence in at least four of the six images of the jet aircraft identified as a Harrier.
This seems intellectually dishonest
imo.
(Note: If the planes are real, used as backdrop for well-timed photos of a UFO model hung near the camera - which imo might be simpler than hanging model planes - any evidence attempting to debunk this idea with data about what planes were flying around Calvine at that time is not relevant until we know for certain the date and location of the photo(s). Which we don't know for certain.)
Meanwhile, he quotes Robinson saying "Even those [hoax theories] that might be plausible create more problems than they solve." - without stating what those additional problems are for each theory. Again, this does not
appear to be said in good-faith.
* * * * *
Robinson addresses the theory that the planes are models, but "given the available evidence I think this is highly unlikely" because it "would be very hard to produce [sequential photos] with TWO hanging models on a windy Scottish hillside." Robinson's lack of skill and/or imagination regarding trick photography is not an admirable reason for anyone to favor
his alt-option: a magic diamond craft.
He used the same 60cm paper lampshade - which he
mistakenly (to be polite) calls "a similar Christmas decoration"! - to analyze the Christmas star theory with outdoor shots, making no attempt (unlike van Utrecht) to make his photos look like the Calvine photo. So, what was the point except to debunk the theory with a strawman?
Why are they doing this?
(c) Andrew Robinson, reproduced for research, study, criticism, review, parody and satire
Source: Is the Calvine UFO actually a Christmas decoration?, Andrew Robinson, Oct 2024.
And despite the similarity of van Utrecht's photos to the Calvine photo, Robinson concludes: "there is no evidence" that a Christmas star was used. Is not the very
similarity of the photos the evidence?
(c) Wim van Utrecht. Source: A UFO with a High X(-mas) factor, Wim van Utrecht, Aug 2022
My description: Recreations using a 34cm glitter-coated 3D star, showing (1) how the light creates uneven patches on the glitter surface, (2) the similar dimensions and bead matching the thingy on the Calvine UFO, and (3) the shadows created by the forward-facing arm which are apparent on the Calvine UFO.
* * * * *
In the blog above, Clarke states his two preferred theories are a hoax (essentially dismissed, and not in good faith
imo) and a black project craft. His latter theory
does not incorporate evidence for the existence of anti-gravity propulsion as described by the witness. To
not even mention it makes this a useless theory, given no evidence of anti-gravity propulsion in the world today, let alone 30 years ago. Does Clarke not mention it because he thinks the witness was lying about the craft's movements? And if he was lying, doesn't that make him non-credible? And if he's non-credible, why does Clarke leave the reader with the overall impression that a black project is his #1 theory?
* * * * *
At the 30th anniversary event at Blair Atholl last August, Clarke indirectly quotes investigative journalist and retired RAF civil servant Michael Mulford, saying:
External Quote:
that we [Clarke et al] had proved 'beyond reasonable doubt' our contention that the UFO was likely to have been a secret project involving the US and UK military...
A vote taken from the stage during the Q&A found that a majority agreed with Michael Mulford that we had proved our theory as to the likely origin of the story.
Source: CALVINE REVISITED, David Clarke, Aug 2025
I haven't found anything more recent where Clarke says anything to suggest a black project is
not his main hypothesis. If a hoax
is his main hypothesis, it's disappointing that he dismisses hoax theories with strawmen and illogic whenever he talks about them publicly.
* * * * *
A final irritation: Included in that event write-up is Clarke's reminder of how the photo needs to be credited when reproduced:
External Quote:
with permission of Craig Lindsay/Sheffield Hallam University
But why? Craig Lindsay stole that photo from his workplace. I don't care that he did, although one would hope this means it was never classified, but that also means it wasn't considered at the time to be a black project craft. But the
copyright on the photo itself says Kevin Russell. So, why is there no reminder to credit
him? The handwritten note is contemporaneous, and Clarke accepts it's accurate, i.e. Kevin Russell took the photo. Therefore, Kevin Russell owns the copyright.
When I used the photo in my blog, Robinson told me to:
External Quote:
credit (or remove) the reproduction of the Calvine image you include (it should be credited "with permission of Craig Lindsay/Sheffield Hallam University") to avoid infringing the University's copyright
So he's claiming SHU owns the copyright? Why do Lindsay or SHU want credit for the use of a donated, stolen photo that someone else took? (I chose to credit (c) Kevin Russell.)
Source: PHOTOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF THE CALVINE UFO PHOTOGRAPH, Andrew Robinson, June 2024.
My description: This is a screenshot from the pdf, where in his caption he appears to have appropriated the copyright for himself... because he took a photo of the photo?!
This (misguided) insistence around claiming credit and copyright may seem tangential but
imo it's indicative of the value they place on the photo, or are hoping to place on the photo, regarding its position in ufology lore and their personal stake in the case. A couple of lads stringing up a bauble is a theory neither of them is openly examining in good faith
imo. It's embarrassing if true: it means Clarke's years of research on the MoD/black project angle are invalidated and multiple people told him tall tales, and it means Robinson's expert opinion on the photo is laughably wrong. The photo becomes worthless except as an example of how a modern myth evolved.
Clarke's input to the case would be so much more interesting to me if he approached it as a folklorist.
[Emphases mine]