2020 US Election - Current Events

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
It's officially November 3rd, 2020, Election Day, on the East coast. I'm sure it's going to be an interesting and bumpy ride for at least the next 36 hours.

There's obvious potential for disinformation and conspiracy theories. As Joe Usinski says, the losers in any election are far more likely to form conspiracy theories about it than the winners. That will happen here. But I suspect it will be on a significantly greater scale than previous election years.

I personally hope it's a decisive and unequivocal win for Biden. I know that won't stop the theories, but it will at least keep them on the fringe.

I'll be up late with a bottle of wine. Seeing what happens.
 

Nth

Member
I suppose it's a mark of getting older when one ages out of being unable to sleep on Christmas Eve and ages into being unable to sleep during a major election. ;)

Oh well, here we go again.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
A bit of Nate Silver fun on SNL

Source: https://youtu.be/XoOvN4-IY88?t=223


To Catch an Autist (it takes an Autist). I've noticed that NS has arranged the books on his shelves by color.

Which swing states could give us enough info to call the election sometime before dawn? Not PA, that's for sure.

NYT
If Texas were called for Biden it's game over, man. Game over. But unlikely to happen by dawn because a Biden win in TX is already unlikely and would be thin.

So FL and NC are the ones to watch.
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member.
I dont wish to feel again that most unpleasant churning in my mind & stomach when to a ghastly surprise individual 1 won 4 years ago. He by careful crafting consistently poisoning the well gaming the system to divide not unify & undermined truth required for democracy, i can only hope for a better & firm result but its too worrisome to even speculate..

Garry Kimovich Kasparov is a Russian chess grandmaster sum it up for me


lies (3).PNG
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
A useful hour-by-hour guide to when results will start to come in (Eastern Time)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/politics/poll-closing-times.html
Metabunk 2020-11-03 08-21-21.jpg

An interesting early race to watch is Senator Mitch McConnell.
But the real fun starts around 8PM ET

Metabunk 2020-11-03 08-22-40.jpg

With the vast turnout and the pandemic, this is a unique election, and early results might be surprising. It also makes projections more complicated, and hence might make those early results misleading.
 

Greylandra

Active Member
Don't worry, Trumps supreme court will help iron out the discrepancies between the votes that come in after election day that'll just keep shifting the vote toward the Democrats as time moves forward.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
I'm assuming the Democrats are going to keep their majority in the House. What's the 2021 Senate predicted to look like? If a lot of former Republican voters support Biden, but confirm Republican senators, Biden might be looking at a difficult presidency.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Biden might be looking at a difficult presidency.

He's looking at a difficult presidency regardless. If he tries to implement any of his campaign promises with the current covid situation, then the repubs will just dominate the midterms in 2 years. If he doesn't implement his campaign promises immediately, the left will go ballistic.

The "Dems" appear united now because they all hate Trump. but without him to rally behind, then the game changes completely.

He really can't win no matter what he does or doesnt do. It's just a bad year(s) to be running for President.
 

JMartJr

Member
FYI -- North Carolinian here, we have four precincts that have been allowed to stay open later than scheduled due to problems opening on time, Under state law, no numbers can be released until all precincts are closed -- so NC won't be reporting until about 8:15, or later IF there are more extensions.

Does not appear to be any chicanery, just giving folks in those precincts who maybe could not vote first thing in the morning, due to the precincts not opening on time, a little extra time to come back and get their vote in.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
Let's not neglect The Economist Model
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
 
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Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.

 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
There's another factor. There's, historically, a fairly strong correlation between these separate elections.

 
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Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
There's an issue that's not well known, even to Americans, and that's reapportionment and redistricting, and the vital role state legislatures have upon the redistricting process. It's a recursive process which can make one party or the other dominant beyond its natural demographics on both a state level and upon the House of Representatives.

It's such a complicated issue, I've hesitated to even open the subject. But the Democrats taking state legislatures on a year that ends in zero is a huge factor in how things will go for years.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/multistate.us/production/landingpages/lZO9YmOKYwcsgtGY8/attachment/Deck_ 2020 State Elections Preview _ MultiState (last updated 11_2_20) (1).pdf

This shift has already happened in my state of Nevada. Since the 2018 we have a Democratic trifecta.

Added to that is the shifting demographics. We're looking at a significant shift toward something we have not had since the early 19th century, which is a one party system.

When Texas demographically/politically shifts to a blue state, that will signal that there will be no more Republican presidents. (This is a process that includes Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and soon Georgia.) That Texas shift was thought to be 8 years in the future, but it now looks as if 4 years is probable.

The Republicans have been holding onto a political power above their natural demographic power for three reasons:

1. The Senate gives equal power to states no matter what their population is. Two Senators per state.
2. The electoral college gives states with low populations outsized power to elect the president.
3. The Republicans were the party in power during the last reapportionment and redistricting in 2010.

The first two will remain in place. However shifting demographics in formerly solid Republican states is changing those as well.

In short, the Republican party is losing all three advantages, while American demographics continue to shift.
 
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Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
There's some real cognitive dissonance going on with the more eccentric Republicans in California thinking that Trump will win there. They seem to be confusing the massive show of support by hundreds or thousands of people at "Trump Train" events as being indicative of some broader popular movement.

Metabunk 2020-11-03 14-47-30.jpg

The GOP polled 22% in the 2016 Presidential election LA County. I guess that means there's a lot of room to grow, but polls have consistently put Biden 30 points ahead.
Metabunk 2020-11-03 14-54-22.jpg

What will happen when these polls are shown to be roughly correct? I think we're going to have a much larger percentage of people than normal thinking the election was rigged.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
There's another factor. There's, historically, a fairly strong correlation between these separate elections.
Yeah, but then you only elect 1/3 of your senators, so despite the Democrats winning the election 2 years ago, that wasn't enough to change the Senate majority. It kinda depends on which states have Senators up for election this year.
There's an issue that's not well known, even to Americans, and that's reapportionment and redistricting, and the vital role state legislatures have upon the redistricting process.
I think gerrymandering is in a lot of folks' vocabulary by now.

I learned today that the Republican party entered a consent decree in 1982 that expired 3 years ago, and it prohibited them to mess with the elections via "poll watchers" (then called the Ballot Security Task Force).
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
6:00 PM CET
President Trump's campaign asked at least three counties in Pennsylvania for a rundown of highly specific election security plans — including ballot storage locations and transportation details — according to an email obtained by NBC News. The Pennsylvania secretary of state has advised counties not to disclose election security information to any third parties and has reached out to the FBI.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
Yeah, but then you only elect 1/3 of your senators, so despite the Democrats winning the election 2 years ago, that wasn't enough to change the Senate majority. It kinda depends on which states have Senators up for election this year.
Yes, it does. 2016 had many Dems defending, this year many Reps are defending. Every single seat gained changes things significantly, so the thought of picking up 6 or 7 is huge. Staggering in the political implications.
 
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tinkertailor

Senior Member.
It's very weird to have experienced a Trump-as-candidate election in rural California and Los Angeles. I always try to explain to Angelinos that their California is not the same as the California I was born in, and today the differences feel palpable.
I don't even know what to expect when I wake up tomorrow, but I know whatever it is it'll be interesting, both in this home and the one I left upstate.
 

NoParty

Senior Member.
There's some real cognitive dissonance going on with the more eccentric Republicans in California thinking that Trump will win there. They seem to be confusing the massive show of support by hundreds or thousands of people at "Trump Train" events as being indicative of some broader popular movement.

View attachment 42012

The GOP polled 22% in the 2016 Presidential election LA County. I guess that means there's a lot of room to grow, but polls have consistently put Biden 30 points ahead.
View attachment 42013

What will happen when these polls are shown to be roughly correct? I think we're going to have a much larger percentage of people than normal thinking the election was rigged.
To be fair, their leader models the exact same hasty generalization.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
Article:
6:00 PM CET
President Trump's campaign asked at least three counties in Pennsylvania for a rundown of highly specific election security plans — including ballot storage locations and transportation details — according to an email obtained by NBC News. The Pennsylvania secretary of state has advised counties not to disclose election security information to any third parties and has reached out to the FBI.

The Pennsylvania Attorney General stated yesterday ( i think) that Biden would win Pennsylvania. basically he was using it as a dig at Trump, saying that's teh only reason Trump would try to secure voting rules in PA. but people are freaking out as if he was hinting at "rigging" or something.

Unfortunately whoever wins PA, the PA folks from the other side, are gonna be up in arms because of what the Attorney General said.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
It's clear this isn't going to be over tonight, as we were repeatedly warned. Texas is still - incredibly - in play because of the massive, landslide vote Biden is getting in the most populous counties. But the state is still a long, long shot in the end.

AP will call AZ for Biden before dawn, which is bad for Trump. Very bad. But it's a real election now; which I'm afraid is going to drag on for days.

I'm 90% confident Trump is going to claim victory tonight, which he has no right to do. That will be very divisive.
 
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Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
Huge surprise the NYT is predicting a 64% chance of Biden winning Georgia. I just looked at the data the NYT is using to predict this. Trump has run out of Trump counties and the remaining counties with unreported votes are heavily Biden. 91% of the vote is in and the count has stopped for the night.

For anyone who's thinking there's a nationwide polling error in favor of Trump, I give you these states:
The first number is the predicted Biden advantage according to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, and the second number is the election vote count advantage for Biden.


AZ +0.9, +9
NM +8, +9
CO +9, +17
MN +4.3, +9

Just got word Right NOW from someone... Trump is making his victory speech.

Right now, he's the clear underdog. What an irresponsible Jackanapes.

With AZ, NV, and ME, all of which he will surely win, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which he recently won, added to the map, Biden is only 26 votes short of winning, with WI(10), MI(16) and PA(20)
And Georgia(16) to go. Biden only needs to win any two of them. And he's favored in all of them. (If Georgia is one of the two, we're in for a bad time... worse than PA could ever be.)

These messages are from the update bar in the NYT forecast page


It's the red mirage, you see. Just as predicted.
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
This is the Associated Press map, via Google. It'll come down to some states flipping the lead as more votes are counted if Biden is to have a chance.
image.jpeg
Also, right now it looks like the Democrats have picked up only a single Senate seat.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
Please understand what's happening in WI, MI, and PA.
Mail ballots
The red mirage
Milwaukee
etc.

Biden is favored in all 3 of these states.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
Biden just took the lead in WI. But a lot of Dem votes are still missing in Milwaukee and some Trump votes still out in Green Bay county but that's dwarfed by the Dem votes outstanding. Biden is now on track to win WI.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
Trump appeared in the East Room of the White House early on Wednesday morning to claim falsely that he had already beaten Democrat Joe Biden, and the election was being stolen from him in a massive act of fraud. He vowed to mount a challenge in the Supreme Court and declared that he had already won states that were still counting votes, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

A short clip of that Trump speech is at the beginning of the video included on that page.Trump voting stop.jpg
[0:35] We'll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop.
[..]
[0:57] We will win this. As far as I'm concerned, we already have won.
Echoes of Florida 2000.

Edit: A longer version of that CNN video was uploaded to Youtube:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovLKZFNm-8M
 
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Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
Something strange going on in NV. NYT reporting only 937 mail ballots have been counted statewide. But there are 413,000 mail ballots in Clark County alone. I did some simple arithmetic, and sure enough the uncounted votes figure in Clark County matches that 413,000 figure. So it looks as if no mail ballots have been counted.

Which clinches NV.*

But... we had a supreme court decision against a GOP lawsuit which involved these ballots... I thought. Biden still winning without them, but christ. Talk about voter suppression. The "Because we Can Doctrine." This is the only reason NV hasn't been called and added to the Electoral map.

Glad I voted in person.

The local media here is crappy.

*Nevada is basically Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno) which both go Dem, and vast, empty desert counties.
 

Trailblazer

Moderator
Staff member
Certainly a rollercoaster this morning (UK time). When I woke up I checked the odds on the Betfair exchange and Trump was 1.5 (i.e. 66.6% chance of victory). He went back out to 1.7, shortened to 1.4 and now the odds have basically flipped with Biden at 1.52.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
But... we had a supreme court decision against a GOP lawsuit which involved these ballots...
Here's a source for that.
Article:
Observers of all parties are being accommodated in Las Vegas-area ballot-counting offices. But Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria testified during a court hearing last week that privacy requirements prevent over-the-shoulder monitoring of signature validation.

The case now before the state Supreme Court also seeks to stop the use of an optical scanning machine to validate voter signatures.

Gloria testified that pulling the plug on the device could endanger his ability to count all ballots before results have to be reported Nov. 16.

The appeal followed an order released Monday by Judge James Wilson Jr. in Carson City, who observed that no county in Nevada hand-counts ballots.

The Trump campaign and GOP lawsuit targeted the only Democratic-leaning county in the state. Wilson said he concluded that neither the state nor Clark County had done anything to give one person’s vote preference over another.
 

Z.W. Wolf

Senior Member.
But that got settled...??? Confusing.

CNN confirming that NV has uncounted mail ballots... but why? And how many? From what I can see, it's 400,000 not tens of thousands. One GOP gambit was an attempt to shut down mail ballot counting machines, but I thought that had been nixed.



People who aren't political junkies just aren't aware of how many mail ballots are still out there in these states, and they're like 60-70% Biden votes. It's going to look to people like they came out of nowhere... with an assist from our Dictator in Chief. That's the plan, of course.


This is why the NYT has Biden favored in Georgia...
Trump just ran out of Trump counties. If Biden wins it would be a slim win and that can mean some bad times.


Trump is now facing almost insuperable odds. Still a slim chance. With that cockroach survival ability of his...
 
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JMartJr

Member
But... we had a supreme court decision against a GOP lawsuit which involved these ballots... I thought. Biden still winning without them, but christ. Talk about voter suppression. The "Because we Can Doctrine." This is the only reason NV hasn't been called and added to the Electoral map.
I'd be a bit cautious about suggesting voter suppression based on "they haven't been counted yet." If they get counted, and the Court ruled they will be as you point out, then what order they are counted in does not change the final total -- it does create the appearance of a horse race where there is not one. If they DON'T count them that's a different story, but that has not happened yet.

Edited for a typo. Stupid small keyboard...
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
AP is now showing a Biden lead in Michigan as well, with 94% of precincts reporting. If Nevada stays blue, Biden could obtain the needed 270 electors from Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin and the states that have already been called in his favor.
Swing States AP.png
(via Google, just now https://www.google.com/search?q=us+elections )
 

Doctor Franger

New Member
I don't know (at my antipodean remove), so perhaps you have heard this a million times recently.
Jeff Bridges' news anchor character in Aaron Sorkin's The Newsroom , explaining in 2013 why the USA is such a great country :
(to slightly maybe paraphrase) "Every four years we go to the fire station and overthrow the government, without any police on the street."

What a difference a Trump makes.

(yeah oops Jeff Daniels)
 
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Mendel

Senior Member.
Just for curiosity's sake, how many different ballots did you need to fill out for this election? Federally, House and Senate and President makes 3, but then there were also propositions and state-wide and local races, maybe?

In Germany, typically only the parliament gets voted on, so it's exactly one ballot for each level of government. This makes ballot counting a lot easier to manage than in the US, and it's still mostly done by volunteers. (Merkel was chosen by the parliament, and the "Senate" (Bundestag) representatives were chosen by the state governments.)
 
Just for curiosity's sake, how many different ballots did you need to fill out for this election? Federally, House and Senate and President makes 3, but then there were also propositions and state-wide and local races, maybe?
It all goes on one ballot.

For example, we (Fairfax County, Virginia) had no local or state level races this year, so the offices were the three Federal offices on one side of the ballot. The other side had two state constitution amendments and five, I think, county level bond issue questions.
 
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