Conspiracy theorists don’t realize they’re on the fringe

Gary C

Senior Member.
External Quote:
"The results showed a marked association between subjects' tendency to be overconfident and belief in conspiracy theories. And while a majority of participants believed a conspiracy's claims just 12 percent of the time, believers thought they were in the majority 93 percent of the time. This suggests that overconfidence is a primary driver of belief in conspiracies."
source - https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/07/conspiracy-theorists-think-their-views-are-mainstream/

cited study - https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672251338358

This should help explain the apparent correlation between rising levels of conspiracism and the spread of Internet access over the past generation. Even small levels of social validation i.e. positive feedback, are likely enough to cement the beliefs of the already overconfident.
 
I'd like to see some repeats of the study before its conclusion is set, it's also framed a bit odd too.

Belief doesn't cause you to believe in something. Overconfidence of a belief, also, cannot lead you to the belief you already hold that you are overconfident in. In fact, in proper terms, this would be a "reinforcement" factor framed around continuity of belief, not a driving factor in belief development.
Most people are overconfident about quite a lot of things all the time. "Conspiracies" unless you frame them in a confirmatory bias form, are also just sets of beliefs, all the rest is stuff the person isn't registering. Eg if they believe it, when they see "conspiracy theory" and say no that's not happening! It's basically just the reverse of what we're doing, except we're different people with different minds.

Again would like to see repeats of the study, not throwing it out, but I'd adjust the framed conclusion to be "overconfidence contributes to continuity of belief" - which we already know and isn't really unique at all.
 
I certainly want to see more study of this but unless there was a significant flaw in sample selection, I would expect a study with 4000 subjects and the high reported levels of misestimation by believers to replicate. The most common factors in replication failures in social science are IIRC small sample sizes, very small effects chosen to meet minimum p-values, and biased sample selection.

If I'm following the logic correctly, overconfidence acts to help the believer maintain his position in the face of skepticism and criticism from non-believers.
 
I certainly want to see more study of this but unless there was a significant flaw in sample selection, I would expect a study with 4000 subjects and the high reported levels of misestimation by believers to replicate. The most common factors in replication failures in social science are IIRC small sample sizes, very small effects chosen to meet minimum p-values, and biased sample selection.

If I'm following the logic correctly, overconfidence acts to help the believer maintain his position in the face of skepticism and criticism from non-believers.
Indeed hence my point being more of an issue with the framing. If the frame was set more properly I'd be more inclined to agree with the conclusion as-is though always a need to have repeats of these studies for that replication factor. I think if they wanted to get at the actual belief development factor they would have to do a new study, not that this data is sour for it but there'd be some issues with retroactively altering it like that.

You would be correct in the last part there and its generally understood placement. Doesn't develop the belief but a) in self-thought can help reinforce it and b) helps perceptively degrade criticism (which reinforces the belief but you could fairly debate that isn't explicitly reinforcing and to be proper is more contextually set).
 
"Conspiracies" unless you frame them in a confirmatory bias form, are also just sets of beliefs
No, technically they're not just a set of beliefs. You're leaving out the significant "conspiracy" part of the beliefs.

External Quote:

A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that asserts the existence of a conspiracy (generally by powerful sinister groups, often political in motivation),[3][4][5] when other explanations are more probable.[3][6][7] The term generally has a negative connotation, implying that the appeal of a conspiracy theory is based in prejudice, emotional conviction, or insufficient evidence.[8] A conspiracy theory is distinct from a conspiracy; it refers to a hypothesized conspiracy with specific characteristics, including but not limited to opposition to the mainstream consensus among those who are qualified to evaluate its accuracy, such as scientists or historians.[9][10][11] As such conspiracy theories are identified as lay theories.

Conspiracy theories tend to be internally consistent and correlate with each other;[12] they are generally designed to resist falsification either by evidence against them or a lack of evidence for them.[13] They are reinforced by circular reasoning: both evidence against the conspiracy and absence of evidence for it are misinterpreted as evidence of its truth.[8][14]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory

While a simple belief held by an individual may indeed resist change, it doesn't have the same sticking power as the same belief framed as "THEY don't want you to know that ____".

The article delves into both the psychology and the history of conspiracy beliefs, and is well worth a read.
 
While a simple belief held by an individual may indeed resist change, it doesn't have the same sticking power as the same belief framed as "THEY don't want you to know that ____".
This is a lesson the current administration in the USA is learning at the moment, as they try to lay aside one of the conspiracy beliefs firmly embraced by the QAnon section of their base of support. While I have no clue what is in the various files that exist documenting the various investigations of the Epstein crimes, nor who might be implicated, I DO know that the more conspiratorial-minded of the President's supporters firmly believe in a vast conspiracy and that the President was going to unmask and destroy it. And telling that section of the base "No, no, no, there's actually nothing to this, you were wrong about this, let it go now, stop believing it -- but still like me, m'kay?" is not working very well.
 
No, technically they're not just a set of beliefs. You're leaving out the significant "conspiracy" part of the beliefs.

External Quote:

A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that asserts the existence of a conspiracy (generally by powerful sinister groups, often political in motivation),[3][4][5] when other explanations are more probable.[3][6][7] The term generally has a negative connotation, implying that the appeal of a conspiracy theory is based in prejudice, emotional conviction, or insufficient evidence.[8] A conspiracy theory is distinct from a conspiracy; it refers to a hypothesized conspiracy with specific characteristics, including but not limited to opposition to the mainstream consensus among those who are qualified to evaluate its accuracy, such as scientists or historians.[9][10][11] As such conspiracy theories are identified as lay theories.

Conspiracy theories tend to be internally consistent and correlate with each other;[12] they are generally designed to resist falsification either by evidence against them or a lack of evidence for them.[13] They are reinforced by circular reasoning: both evidence against the conspiracy and absence of evidence for it are misinterpreted as evidence of its truth.[8][14]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory

While a simple belief held by an individual may indeed resist change, it doesn't have the same sticking power as the same belief framed as "THEY don't want you to know that ____".

The article delves into both the psychology and the history of conspiracy beliefs, and is well worth a read.
The first part is part of my point a bit about how we reference "conspiracy theories" are subjective. We have a very large amount of cases here on the forum even where "conspiracy theory"-aligned claims are made without a definitional conspiracy as presented here. This is the proper definition of conspiracy theory and I do not debate its use, rather identifying the fact we also assume people think there's a conspiracy when it's related to something we consider a "conspiracy theory". We have to be careful with that and it requires active consideration. This isn't a bad faith thing it just happens because of social connotations and how we're conditioned to discuss the surrounding topics.

My point above, is yes, they are just sets of beliefs. What you pointed out would be an addition to the set of beliefs, the same as we all have additions to our sets of beliefs. Rather than say, browsing Twitter to answer a question, we may come to a medium filled with specialists and experts in respective fields and ascertain from them. Considering the fact there are a large quantity of "conspiracy theory" claims that are only such because we consider it so, and the other party isn't actually thinking of any conspiracies. This is one of the issues our side holds in the community that ends up being divisive in debate, because there are a lot of cases where we take the assumption someone is framing a "conspiracy" when in reality they do not know and are legitimately seeking answers.

All conspiracies follow the same exact sequence, and it's the same sequence used for similar situations that have no "conspiracy" consideration.
>We are exposed to information related to something real that is incomplete, and in its incomplete state, does not fit into our cognition. This is the 'gap'.
>We seek to fill the gap in information by seeking out, and if we cannot find any, creating reasons for it that fit within our cognition. This is where what you pointed out in the second part comes in, eg, this is the step where someone may create a conspiracy by framing the "they" as part of a cognitive sequence to reason that gap to ourselves. We don't have the information because they don't want you to know it.

This is also how we normally process information, there's nothing unique about the processing aspect there. We all do the exact same thing to varying extents. Those who are more vulnerable to it are usually so not because of what we'd consider conspiracies but rather things like biases and impactors to them (though if you're socially conditioned by any "conspiracy" that'd be fairly considerable).

We can reframe the above for example. I'll present two frames of it for both ends but they're not super in depth there's a world of factors in it. For situational framing also, this is the same situation, just framed for different parts of the community.

>Bob sees something in the sky he can't identify. This is the gap - he can't reason what he saw.
>He looks it up online. For a multitude of reasons, that gap being what he can't identify, he falls in alignment to the 'believer' audiences.
>Bob does not develop the belief there is some "they" behind the phenomena, but rather perceives it as unidentified. He does resist conventional explanations because, for a multitude of reasons (some potentially overlapping, some not with the above) they do not 'fit' into his ability to reason the gap.

>Jane sees Bobs comments on a major UFO memer personalities post here he mentions his own experience. This is the gap for Jane, she doesn't fully know what Bob is thinking.
>For whatever reason Jane may be curious, she does not know exactly what Bob is thinking. She reads his other posts to get a better read on it, and the "gap" is filled by seeing Bob a) continuously resist conventional explanation, and b) interacting with the "believer" end of the community.
>Jane does not develop the belief that Bob is part of the devout "believer" audience, but does develop the belief that Bob is promoting a conspiracy theory.

While a bit different, both of these are cases where there is a "gap" of information that creates a need or interest to fulfill, and in both cases each party only observes fragmented information that develops their eventual belief. Both sides end up making an incorrect conclusion within the context of a "conspiracy theory" aligned subject. Though only Bob is classed a conspiracy theorist because his specific claim, was conceptually aligned with other peoples claims who do view a conspiracy behind it (rather than Bob being classed that way BECAUSE he views a conspiracy behind it). For contextual reference, Jane would not be a conspiracy theorist, though neither would Bob since neither meet the definition but in social conversations, not generally held.
 
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A few of the conspiracies on their false list are plausibly true, and at one is obviously true but not a conspiracy theory. For example, "A restricted campground (known as 'Bohemian Grove') hosts a two week encampment annually of prominent men in the world", is listed as a false conspiracy theory.

https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/d5fz2_v3

I don't know how much this affects their results, but it's certainly a very stupid oversight.
 
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A few of the conspiracies on their false list are plausibly true, and at one is obviously true but not a conspiracy theory. For example, "A restricted campground (known as 'Bohemian Grove') hosts a two week encampment annually of prominent men in the world", is listed as a false conspiracy theory.
There are, of course, popular conspiracy theories surrounding what goes on there:
The Bohemian Grove is known for its annual two-week encampment, attended by some of the most powerful and well-connected individuals in the United States. The secrecy surrounding these gatherings has fueled various conspiracy theories over the years.

Common Bohemian Grove conspiracy theories beliefs:
  • External Quote:

    • Global elite conspiring to control the world: Some believe that the powerful individuals who gather at Bohemian Grove secretly coordinate policy decisions and manipulate world affairs, according to Brown University. This theory suggests that the club functions as a "secret guild of Illuminati" making decisions that affect global economies and politics.
    • Satanic rituals and human sacrifice: More extreme theories claim that members engage in demon worship and even human sacrifices. This is often linked to the "Cremation of Care" ceremony, a theatrical performance held during the encampment that involves burning an effigy before a large owl shrine. While the ceremony is symbolic, representing the banishment of worldly concerns, some conspiracy theorists interpret it as a literal human sacrifice to figures like the Phoenician god Moloch.
    • Backdoor deals and illicit activities: Given the concentration of power at the Grove, some believe it serves as a venue for powerful men to make "backdoor deals" and engage in other illicit activities away from public scrutiny. However, some sources suggest the primary purpose of the encampment is relaxation and social networking among powerful executives,
    As summarized by Search Labs | AI Overview
 
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