disagree. although i dont believe in "conspiracies" with politics most of the time: i think so called "conspiracies" are really just like-minded individuals happening to take the same actions, without coordination, because they are like-minded.
Yes.
In a crime investigation, you're asking for means, motive, and opportunity.
If the like-minded motivation is "let Biden win the State of New York", the means to do that is to do nothing: New York State is traditionally safely blue, you can achieve that goal without doing anything illegal at all.
So if you contend that fraud was committed, you need to supply an additional motive beyond "they wanted Biden to win" to justify the otherwise unneeded and risky effort.
But the crime also fails on "means": as the event shows, modifying the election night electronic tabulation is useless because that change won't last: it must be uncovered when the vote is audited, at the very least. Erie County uses paper ballots:
The DS200 Ballot Scanner system is a portable electronic voting system that uses an optical scanner to read marked paper ballots and tally the results. This system allows for paper ballots to be immediately tabulated at your polling site. The DS200 also notifies you of any voting errors. You will be able to immediately correct these errors to ensure that Your Vote Counts!
[..]
ES&S DS200 Counties:
- Albany County
- Erie County
- [...]
There is a paper ballot for each vote.
That means for election fraud to persist, you not only have to change the electronic count, you also have to change the same number of paper ballots (tens of thousands!) from Trump to Biden. (You need to match the number of ballots cast!) This is not happening "without coordination"; and it will likely also change the outcome of many down-ballot races in similarly obvious ways.
The strongest argument against the idea that someone had the means to do this is the fact that it wasn't done.
Opportunity is also a problem, with poll watchers, and supervisors.
There's an alternate hypothesis to the "somebody made an error" theory: a Trump supporter quickly changed the election night electronic tally, either at the polling place, or on the unofficial site that reported these results (security would be a lot easier to overcome there), or they just edited the screenshot: the motivation would be to make it seem that Trump had won the county, and then not, supporting the previously announced "fraud" narrative. The Trump supporter doesn't need to make their change stick; in fact, exposing the change is their goal.
So, we can consider 3 hypothesis:
A) We're looking at a tabulation error, similar to Antrim County, MI
B) Democrats planned fraud to turn a traditionally blue county more blue
C) a Trump supporter modified the election night electronic tally at the election office, or at the election reporting site, or on the screenshot.
From the argument above, B) is the least likely hypothesis. It implies that Democrats are stupid (no means) and do illegal things for no reason (no motive).