COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

[Leifer]

Officials urged the public to frequently wash their hands, opt for verbal salutations in place of hugs and handshakes and try to maintain a distance of 6 feet from strangers.

Reports of China's infection rate seem to be slowing down, but might be due to drastic lifestyle changes, like.....avoiding public interaction, unheard-of sterile hygiene, lock-down of certain areas, and voluntary or mandated hibernation, thermal body temperature checkpoints before entering buildings and nearly empty trains. Food market shoppers are reportedly told to stand one meter away from other customers (like you mentioned).
These are extreme measures.

This street in Shanghai is usually a traffic jam....

Source: https://youtu.be/A1yXTlvTB08?t=278

 

[Mick West]

This street in Shanghai is usually a traffic jam....

I'm not sure that's entirely accurate. I went through the last ten years of satellite images of that road, and that actually does not seem to be super unusual traffic.

2010:

2014:

2018

He's by Luijiazui park

The video seems a bit sensationalist. I'm sure it's based on real things, but he's perhaps hamming it up.

 

[deirdre]

ok. so unlike the contrail inserts, this youtube coronavirus insert kinda make sit look like this video is promoted by WHO. That's unsettling.

 

[Leifer]

I'm not sure that's entirely accurate. I went through the last ten years of satellite images of that road, and that actually does not seem to be super unusual traffic.
......

The video seems a bit sensationalist. I'm sure it's based on real things, but he's perhaps hamming it up.

I agree it seems sensationalist. Anytime a video compares one viewpoint against another and uses daunting and/or frightening music to convey "the awful".... I am suspect of it's intentions. You should not need to add scary music, if the images are truly scary.....or "true".
Oliver Stone used this "musical score" technique greatly, in his Oliver Stone: The Untold History Of The United States (2012).
.....and many propaganda and war "newsreels" during WWII and Vietnam, played in movie theaters to audiences, just before a commercial feature film.

Regarding the "empty streets" in Google 3D maps, doesn't Google take several pics of busy streets, and use an algorithm to eliminate people, cars, and non-static objects ? I looked around, but could not find a definitive answer.

I also looked for recent home videos of Shanghai's streets...to see if some showed "typical activity" after the current virus scare. I could not find any.

Social media companies are increasing their vigilance about removing coronavirus conspiracies. Facebook, in particular, continues to update its policies as the outbreak — and corresponding disinformation — spreads.
On Tuesday, Mark Zuckerberg reiterated in a Facebook post that the platform was removing conspiracy theories related to the coronavirus that have been flagged by global health organizations, in addition to labeling coronavirus misinformation with "fact check" labels to let users know that such content had been rated false. Zuckerberg also said that Facebook is providing the World Health Organization (WHO) "as many free ads as they need." At the same time, Zuckerberg said the company will block ads that try to exploit the situation, such as those that claim a product has a miracle cure for the Covid-19 disease.

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/1/3...s-facebook-social-media-tiktok-twitter-wechat

 

[Mick West]

Regarding the "empty streets" in Google 3D maps, doesn't Google take several pics of busy streets, and use an algorithm to eliminate people, cars, and non-static objects ? I looked around, but could not find a definitive answer.

It does in the US. But does not seem to do so in China, I looked around, and there's traffic just a few blocks away. Even the freeways have lots of cars on them (they are always shown empty in the the US)
https://www.google.com/maps/place/S...x295129423c364a1!8m2!3d31.230416!4d121.473701

 

[Mechanik]

My quick look at Google also seems to show empty streets. While it's copyright 2020 I don't see the actual photo date. This area near the park seems to correspond to the undercrossing/tunnel in the video. I'm not suggesting that this provides evidence that people are avoiding local travel. Given that Google photos are often several years old, it does provide evidence that the video is overblowing the situation.

My apologies, but I can't find the option to copy the URL in IOS. Here is the screen capture and maybe you can reproduce the search based on place names.

 

[Agent K]

"Before-and-after satellite images show how the coronavirus has emptied global landmarks, from Mecca's Grand Mosque to Tiananmen Square"
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-global-landmarks-emptied-satellite-photos-2020-3

The major city of Wuhan, China — thought to be the origin of the outbreak — has been worst affected by the virus. This picture of a toll plaza in the city in October shows cars lining up.

Maxar Technologies/Reuters

The outbreak has put the daily lives of millions of people on pause. In late February, the same toll plaza in Wuhan was looking deserted.

Aerial footage of the toll plaza taken February 25. Maxar Technologies/Reuters

 

[Agent K]

Even the freeways have lots of cars on them (they are always shown empty in the the US)

The 3D reconstructed images show empty freeways, but the 2D satellite images show cars and even airplanes, like this jet over the 405 coming in for a landing at LAX.
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.938942,-118.3690637,421m/data=!3m1!1e3

The 3D image below doesn't show the moving vehicles. You have to switch to 2D to see them.

 

[Leifer]

Dr. Drew Pinsky, is very much on the side of....that this virus virus is way overblown, and he repeatedly compares Covid to the current Flu statistics.
He states figures. His stated Flu numbers are:
(parenthesis mine)

80,000 deaths a year in a bad Flu season (per year I assume),
40 million Flu-like illnesses (per year I assume),
...and over 200,000 hospitalizations.

16,000 deaths,....so far this year.

About the Coronavirus outbreak, Pinsky mentions that the WHO estimates the US fatality rate is about 3% (USA I assume)...."and we expect it to drop dramatically", once mild cases are factored-in and more widespread testing is done.
This does make some sense...except that "high risk peoples" do not have any vaccine yet available to help curb deaths.

( @4:55 to 7:24)

Source: https://youtu.be/e_2aaO2nhTE?t=295


I'm not siding with him. I am just looking at all opinions in the face of limited information.

 

[Trailspotter]

As the discussion went far beyond China, I propose truncation of the thread title by removing the last three words.

 

[Mick West]

As the discussion went far beyond China, I propose truncation of the thread title by removing the last three words.

Changed to just "COVID-19 Coronavirus"

 

[deirdre]

Connecticut has it's first resident case. but this was news to me... I didn't realize when they say "kit", it meant multiple tests.

They confirmed that the state now has a second test kit, saying one kit can test up to 600 patients

https://www.wfsb.com/news/lawmakers...cle_3714224e-61ec-11ea-b841-9b6db236bec5.html

 

[Leifer]

I'm wondering how the "anti-vaxxers" are dealing with a potential "Covid-19 vaccine" solution ?
This write-up on VICE.......

"Anti-Vaxxers Are Terrified the Government Will 'Enforce' a Vaccine for Coronavirus"

For most people, the news that a vaccine had been developed against the disease would come as a relief, but for anti-vaxxers it ties together two things. The first is, naturally, an overwhelming fear and distrust of vaccines; the second is a terrified certainty that some day the government will find a convenient excuse to enforce Orwellian degrees of control.

This is a common theme in the anti-vax world, and conspiracy theorist communities more broadly: that every disease outbreak is a pretext to enforce a secret, frequently sinister agenda.
...........
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...rnment-will-enforce-a-vaccine-for-coronavirus

 

[Agent K]

Can anyone make sense of this?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/home/cleaning-disinfection.html

Based on what is currently known about the novel coronavirus and similar coronaviruses that cause SARS and MERS, spread from person-to-person with these viruses happens most frequently among close contacts (within about 6 feet). This type of transmission occurs via respiratory droplets. On the other hand, transmission of novel coronavirus to persons from surfaces contaminated with the virus has not been documented. Transmission of coronavirus occurs much more commonly through respiratory droplets than through fomites. Current evidence suggests that novel coronavirus may remain viable for hours to days on surfaces made from a variety of materials. Cleaning of visibly dirty surfaces followed by disinfection is a best practice measure for prevention of COVID-19 and other viral respiratory illnesses in households and community settings.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Wow, that is poorly written.

 

[deirdre]

Can anyone make sense of this?

i can since i looked up "fomites" a few days ago
although it is badly written.

it is saying there is no concrete proof yet the virus is transmitted by touching a doorknob, tv remote etc. but since we don't know for sure, you have to clean surfaces then disinfect them frequently if you have an infected or suspected carrier in your house.

you mostly get it if someone within 6 feet of you sneezes or coughs or kisses you etc.

 

[Agent K]

i can since i looked up "fomites" a few days ago
although it is badly written.

it is saying there is no concrete proof yet the virus is transmitted by touching a doorknob, tv remote etc. but since we don't know for sure, you have to clean surfaces then disinfect them frequently if you have an infected or suspected carrier in your house.

you mostly get it if someone within 6 feet of you sneezes or coughs or kisses you etc.

You wouldn't know it from the advice they give to wash hands frequently and not wear a facemask. Seems backwards if "Transmission of coronavirus occurs much more commonly through respiratory droplets than through fomites."

 

[deirdre]

and not wear a facemask.

I think they are afraid people will not wear/put-on/take-off facemasks properly (or have them fit properly), giving them a false sense of security. I saw one pic of some Chinese tourists and the young girl had slid her mask down under her chin to get a picture from her father taken. NOT what you want to do! Granted if someone sneezed on you only large droplets and the mask happened to catch it, that would mean it didn't go in your nose but if she picked it up on her hands or shook someone's hand who had sneezed into it, now she probably has it on her face from messing with her mask.

(and i imagine, they want actual sick people to be able to purchase them in bulk to wear, and if they are all sold out we will have maskless sick people walking around, sneezing everywhere. )

to wash hands frequently

it's kinda hard to prove fomite transmission. they cant hire a bunch of healthy college guys to go into an infected home with respirators on and touch different objects then suck on their fingers. (their own fingers, not the doctors would suck on their fingers). That's illegal.

*edit: i'm writing badly too! its illegal to give someone an infection or disease on purpose, it's not illegal to suck on college guys fingers.

 

[Arugula]

There is a study by Chinese government officials that was just taken off of the peer review journal Practical Preventive Medicine regarding how this virus travels, claiming it can survive 2-3 days on those fomite surfaces. We don't really know if this means the study was removed because of a small error, a huge error, or if it was removed for political reasons. Unfortunately now it's getting shared in the NY Post without retraction.

South China Morning Post is also reporting it, but keeping it updated as they find out why the study was removed from the journal:

Note: The study at the centre of this article on the transmission of the coronavirus was retracted on Tuesday by the journal Practical Preventive Medicine without giving a reason. The South China Morning Post has reached out to the paper's authors and will update the article.

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the "safe distance" advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then rub their face.

The length of time it lasts on the surface depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface, for example at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper.

These findings, from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case, challenge the advice from health authorities around the world that people should remain apart at a "safe distance" of one to two metres (three to six and a half feet).

Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...vel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

 

[Arugula]

It's also really interesting to follow how the US compares to what is happening in Italy. Of course, what happens in the US won't be exactly like Italy, but it could provide an insight into the kind of timescale in which things dramatically change:


Source: https://twitter.com/elipariser/status/1236824921231294466



Day 11 (4 March) Italian government imposed the shutdown of all schools and universities nationwide
Day 15 (8 March) Lombardy in full lockdown (16 million people)
Day 16 (9 March) Full lockdown of Italy announced, all sporting events cancelled
Day 17 (10 March) Italy implements travel restrictions, ban on public gatherings


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy

 

[deirdre]

at around 37C (98F), it can survive for two to three days

is it normally 98 degrees in China. what a weird temp to check.

 

[deirdre]

We don't really know if this means the study was removed because of a small error, a huge error, or if it was removed for political reasons

my guess is that it isn't at all scientific. how do they know those other people weren't infected before they got on the bus? and that little group at 4.5m is suspicious. does the air conditioning system blow down right there? did he cough on them when entering the bus? were they a family since they are all basically sitting together?

 

[Mechanik]

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the "safe distance" advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.

I suspect the issue is that the distance contradicts the well-studied and documented "safe distance". Covid-19 is the same general size, shape, and mass as other Covid varieties and so the claim that it travels an extraordinary distance or lasts an extraordinarily long time, will require some extraordinary evidence which may not have been present, or accepted by peers, when the study was released.

Here is a link to a US Centers For Disease Control PDF that includes the "6 feet" number.
https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutic...low-the-Spread-of-Flu-Factsheet-final-508.pdf

 

[Mechanik]

I'm not going to update my previous post, but I'm with @Dierdre. If the virus were generically transmissible up to 4.5 meters, then virtually everyone on the bus would have been infected.

 

[Mick West]

I think the last line of the SCMP story says a lot:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...vel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

A doctor in Beijing involved in the diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19 patients said the study had left some questions unanswered.
For instance, the passengers sitting immediately next to the carriers were not infected, though they were suffering the highest exposure to the disease-bearing aerosols.
"Our knowledge about this virus's transmission is still limited," he said.

Michael Osterholm (an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology, who has been warning about something like this for a while) was just on Joe Rogan, and said

the primary method for transmission is just the respiratory route, it's just breathing

And that there wasn't much evidence to support surface transmission, or from touching your face. Basically the prevention method is to shut things down, like schools. And for people in general to avoid other people.

Source: https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw?t=470

 

[Agent K]

Michael Osterholm (an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology, who has been warning about something like this for a while) was just on Joe Rogan, and said

the primary method for transmission is just the respiratory route, it's just breathing

And that there wasn't much evidence to support surface transmission, or from touching your face. Basically the prevention method is to shut things down, like schools. And for people in general to avoid other people.

If the primary method for transmission is just breathing, wouldn't it be mitigated if everyone wore facemasks? Isn't that why China mandated it?

 

[deirdre]

If the primary method for transmission is just breathing, wouldn't it be mitigated if everyone wore facemasks

he talks about masks at 44:30. he says no.

(although maybe I should see if I can order filters for my respirator..got as a painter...for emergencies or if I need to donate it. note: they are very hard to breath through which is why I only wore mine once for about 10 mins!

an [bad] anology is compound dust. when you compound sheetrock seams or patch a hole in the wall and sand it with fine grain sandpaper, you get particles -most of which are much much much bigger than any virus. since I cant wear a respirator when working I have worn those paper round masks. you still end up with compound dust in your nose hairs because the masks don't fit super tight. i do get get a lot less dust in my nose then wearing no mask. but you still get enough dust to make you sick if it was a virus.

at 15:00 he has a nice line i'm going to start using "I dont want to scare you out of your wits, I want to scare you into your wits")

 

[Mick West]

If the primary method for transmission is just breathing, wouldn't it be mitigated if everyone wore facemasks?

Yes, and he actually says an N95 mask would be effective. The looser surgical masks would certainly help stop the spread, but don't protect the wearer much. One problem is that people are highly infectious (via breathing) even before the onset of symptoms. The cultural acceptance of masks in Asia has probably been a huge help in containing the spread. But it's going to be a tough sell in the US.

 

[Mick West]

he talks about masks at 44:30. he says no.

He says the surgical masks "may help a little bit with you transmitting ... if you cough". Then goes on to say N95 masks are "very effective".

 

[deirdre]

and he actually says an N95 mask would be effective

IF it is tight fitting with a good seal. he says.

otherwise they are not much better (for healthy people not getting the virus) than a surgical mask. I did almost add "Mick would probably be ok with the paper masks" since you are a big guy. But i didn't want to confuse the general public.

osha has some training videos etc.
https://www.osha.gov/Publications/respirators-vs-surgicalmasks-factsheet.html

also Joe took it the way I think of "respirators" to mean half masks (apocalypse masks/preppers). just pointing this out because all the different styles can be confusing.

He says the surgical masks "may help a little bit with you transmitting ... if you cough". Then goes on to say N95 masks are "very effective".

Agreed. we dont have many cases in most of America (1 in Connecticut) so i wasnt even thinking about potential sick people spreading it at this point since that's a waste of alot of masks, i should have transcribed his whole talk but i was lazy. sorry.

 

[deirdre]

our health care workers are running out of proper masks.

Instead of recommending that health-care workers use specialized masks known as N95 respirators, which filter out about 95 percent of airborne particles, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted new guidelines Tuesday that said "the supply chain of respirators cannot meet demand" and that looser fitting surgical face masks "are an acceptable alternative."

The more commonly worn surgical masks will limit — but not eliminate — the chance of inhaling large, infectious particles circulating near the face. Until Tuesday, the CDC had recommended that health-care workers interacting with coronavirus patients or suspected cases wear N95 respirators, along with gowns, gloves and eye protectors. The N95 filters must be custom-fitted and cost more than surgical masks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/f...dc-to-loosen-coronavirus-guidance/ar-BB110OpU

 

[Leifer]

I have used the 3M N95 mask for years, for filtering dust and paint-spray particles.
If you have facial hair (like a beard), the mask cannot be sealed enough.

Here is one I used when spraying red water-based paint, for a two hour period......(I use a carbon filter fume-filtering respirator for oil-base solvent paints)

I believe one reason the CDC and others are not recommending that the (non-sick) general population use these masks....is that the available supply (stock) of these N95 type masks is low, and should be most available to healthcare workers and patients.
Not enough of the science is known yet on how long the virus lasts on paper items like these masks, and I'm sure there is a cautionary protocol about when to dispose of these masks, after periods of usage.

When I used to paint giant blue sky backdrops, we would spray gallons of blue paint (5, 10, 15, 20 gallons of the stuff).
Even when wearing these masks, at the end of the day we would experience some "smurf boogers" when blowing our nose.
(blue nasal fluid)

 

[Agent K]

Yes, and he actually says an N95 mask would be effective. The looser surgical masks would certainly help stop the spread, but don't protect the wearer much. One problem is that people are highly infectious (via breathing) even before the onset of symptoms. The cultural acceptance of masks in Asia has probably been a huge help in containing the spread. But it's going to be a tough sell in the US.

That's why China mandates the masks, so if you're infected you don't pass it on to others. If everyone wears them, everyone is protected. Surgical masks might protect others better than N95 masks with exhale valves like the one Leifer posted above that don't filter exhaled breath.

 

[Agent K]

our health care workers are running out of proper masks.

Instead of recommending that health-care workers use specialized masks known as N95 respirators, which filter out about 95 percent of airborne particles, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted new guidelines Tuesday that said "the supply chain of respirators cannot meet demand" and that looser fitting surgical face masks "are an acceptable alternative."

The more commonly worn surgical masks will limit — but not eliminate — the chance of inhaling large, infectious particles circulating near the face. Until Tuesday, the CDC had recommended that health-care workers interacting with coronavirus patients or suspected cases wear N95 respirators, along with gowns, gloves and eye protectors. The N95 filters must be custom-fitted and cost more than surgical masks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/f...dc-to-loosen-coronavirus-guidance/ar-BB110OpU

Fortunately, "Surgical masks (are) as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection"
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190903134732.htm

The study reported 'no significant difference in the effectiveness' of medical masks vs. N95 respirators for prevention of influenza or other viral respiratory illness.

 

[Leifer]

...... Surgical masks might protect others better than N95 masks with exhale valves like the one Leifer posted above that don't filter exhaled breath.

Correct.
Explained more fully....the mask I posted has a silicone diaphragm, allowing "filtered in, unfiltered out".
Those masks without the diapfragm contraption, filter "in and out".

 

[Agent K]

Not enough of the science is known yet on how long the virus lasts on paper items like these masks

Better on the mask than on your face.

 

[Agent K]

I suspect the issue is that the distance contradicts the well-studied and documented "safe distance". Covid-19 is the same general size, shape, and mass as other Covid varieties and so the claim that it travels an extraordinary distance or lasts an extraordinarily long time, will require some extraordinary evidence which may not have been present, or accepted by peers, when the study was released.

Here is a link to a US Centers For Disease Control PDF that includes the "6 feet" number.
https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutic...low-the-Spread-of-Flu-Factsheet-final-508.pdf

This says it might linger in the air.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

While both the flu and COVID-19 may be transmitted in similar ways, there is also a possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route, meaning that tiny droplets remaining in the air could cause disease in others even after the ill person is no longer near.

 

[deirdre]

Fortunately, "Surgical masks (are) as good as respirators for flu and respiratory virus protection"
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190903134732.htm

well there you go, neither guarantee protection against acquiring a virus.

In the end, 207 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections occurred in the N95 groups versus 193 among medical mask wearers, according to the report. In addition, there were 2,734 cases of influenza-like symptoms, laboratory-confirmed respiratory illnesses, and acute or laboratory-detected respiratory infections (where the worker may not have felt ill) in the N95 groups, compared with 3,039 such events among medical mask wearers.

 

[Agent K]

well there you go, neither guarantee protection against acquiring a virus.

In the end, 207 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections occurred in the N95 groups versus 193 among medical mask wearers, according to the report. In addition, there were 2,734 cases of influenza-like symptoms, laboratory-confirmed respiratory illnesses, and acute or laboratory-detected respiratory infections (where the worker may not have felt ill) in the N95 groups, compared with 3,039 such events among medical mask wearers.

Maybe they're equally ineffective. The study didn't compare wearing a mask to not wearing one.

 

[deirdre]

Maybe they're equally ineffective. The study didn't compare wearing a mask to not wearing one.

either way if we wipe out the medical personnel because bulk ebay buyers (or the public) are trying to profit by mass hoarding masks they don't need, then we're screwed either way.

and if the sick people and their neighbors (like cluster areas, seattle Westchester etc) cant get them, then it will definitely spread.