The Global economic system will collapse when the U.S. Dollar collapses....
No, the global economic system will do just fine. The Euro is stronger than the US Dollar, and the Ruble is stable. There are many other stable currencies such as the Swiss Franc.
...official debt is close to $16 Trillion and real debt including future obligations estimated at $222 Trillion.
Your unfunded obligations are a little on the high side. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that you are including unfunded obligations by States, counties and cities, as well as other unfunded obligations, such as corporate pension plans, in addition the future money owed by the federal government.
The Baby Boomer generation will all be applying for they're entitlements over the next couple years while tax revenues will decline as unemployment rises.
Agreed, but that has no bearing on the collapse of the US Dollar.
The economists in your government are grotesquely incompetent to be sure -- to the point of being criminally negligent, but that only impacts what happens in the US, not the world. If you would like to see an example of the criminal negligence of the "you-Harvards" in your government, you need only to to read this:
2012 Annual Report Of The Boards Of Trustees Of The Federal Hospital Insurance And Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds Page 7 (Page 13 in Acrobat) said:
The projected average annual rate of growth for the U.S. economy is 5.0 percent during this period...
This "period" is 2012 to 2021 --- 5.0% GDP growth? That is impossible.
It is impossible for a number of reasons, but mainly because post-Industrialized States only average 3.0%; because since 1961, the average annual growth rate in the US has been 2.89%; and because the economic conditions at present and for the foreseeable future will not permit a 5.0% growth rate. In fact, it already failed since 1st Quarter GDP was 1.9% and the first estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP is 1.5% (with the first revision due August 29). So these claims, that the DI Trust Fund (Social Security Disability) will fail in 2015; that the HI (Medicare) Trust Fund will fail in 2024; and that the OASI Trust Fund will fail in 2033 are all wrong.
They will all fail much earlier than that. The DI Trust Fund will fail sometime in 2014, HI (Medicare) in the last half of 2018, and OASI circa 2023-2025.
Those programs are dead. You cannot "save" them. However, you can extend the life of those programs to about 2035-2040 -- after that, you'll have to come up with something new for Generation X and Generation Y and Generation Z. Unfortunately, the cost -- the price America will have to pay -- to extend those programs is more than Americans could ever bear. Those programs can be extended if, and only if, the wage/salary cap is eliminated, the SECA tax is increased (for Medicare), the FICA tax is increased and means-testing is used for both Medicare and Social Security, and in the case of Medicare, you will have to employ, uh, I guess "Death Panels" (for lack of a better word/phrase).
If Generation X and Generation Y and Generation Z want anything even close to remotely resembling Social Security as people know it now, you'll have to incrementally increase the FICA tax rate to about 24% prior to 2040 -- meaning you pay 12% and your employer pays 12%. That will seriously damage your economy, due to the decrease in disposable income for all households, which will be declining anyway. Your States, counties and cities will be cut to the bone as far as wages, pensions and services to the public. I suppose the union -backed government employees can go on strike if they want, but that would be futile, since you cannot squeeze blood out of turnip.
But that will not cause the US Dollar to collapse, rather it will just reduce the standard of living for Americans to the point that America is like a very ritzy Belarus.
The U.S. is no longer the reserve petro dollar it once was, China and Japan have agreed to do transactions with eachother in they're own currencies and India has agreed to purchase Oil from Iran with GOLD.
You've conflated the issue here.
Among the effects of WW II and the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker) is that the US Dollar became the
de facto international reserve currency, and the
de facto international currency of trade.
Prior to the year 2000, if you wanted to buy or sell any commodity on the world market, be it oil, natural gas, corn, rice, wheat, barely, soy beans, cotton, flaxen, linen, gold, silver, and other precious metals, metal ores such as iron, bauxite, lead, tin, copper
et al, non-metallic minerals, like phosphates, salts etc, you paid in US Dollars....
...or you sat in a corner and sulked.
Then came the Euro....and the Ruble....and basket currencies.
The value of the US Dollar globally is a function of the Supply & Demand for US Dollars globally. Given all the problems in Europe, why is the Euro still more valuable than the US Dollar? Because the Global Demand for Euros is greater than the Global Demand for US Dollars, relative to the Global Supply of each currency.
Add to that the fact that since 1997 or so when the Moscow Exchange opened and the Ruble was finally traded on the world market for the first time since the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker), Russia sells 9 Million barrels of oil per day, plus millions of cubic meters of natural gas (and other commodities) and if you want to buy them, then you had best have lots of Euros and Rubles...
....because Russia does not accept US Dollars in payment.
Iran is now operating the Kish Island Exchange, and trading commodities like oil, natural gas and the like in basket currencies, instead of exclusively in US Dollars. If you understand that, then you can understand the idle threats and continued harassment by the three countries that stand to lose the most from a weak US Dollar -- the US, USrael, and Saudi America.
Even if China, Japan and Korea
et al joined in a unified Asian currency, it would not result in the collapse of the US Dollar, rather it would just result in a decline in the standard of living for Americans, but then in reality, the standard of living for Americans is way over-inflated -- so in the end, Americans end up having a much lower standard of living --- the very same standard of living that Americans would have always had, were it not for WW II, the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker) and US Foreign Policy.
in the next 10 years GUARANTEED but my personal opinion is within the next 5 years, it's evident as we are on a spending spree of $11 Trillion a year, it's almost like their spending the money while it's still good.
I'd be willing to bet $1000 federal reserve notes within the next 5 years.
Then you lost that bet.
We are not waiting for the collapse to happen one morning when you wake up, it's happening right now, every city, county, state, in the nation is in Horrific debt and now do not have anywhere to go to alleviate that debt and no where to go to help absorb that debt. We only have a couple choices print more FRN's and cause inflation, then runaway hyperinflation, or Devalue the corrency and pay our debts in watered down currency causing deflation, both will usher in the demise of the World Reserve Currency known as the Federal Reserve Note. I do know what can be done but I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
Real Inflation is a function of Supply & Demand for a currency. The US is a special exception due to the fact that the US Dollar is still more or less the
de facto international reserve currency, and the
de facto international currency of trade.
When you look at the potential for Real Inflation, we use a coefficient of absorption. Maybe 18 months (or more) ago when I was looking at it, I figured the Global Economy could absorb about $9 TRILLION to $13 TRILLION excess US Dollars at the time. Due to the economic problems in Europe (and elsewhere) there's not really much point in revisiting it. Suffice to say that the Global Economy can -- at present -- handle more than $13 TRILLION.
The problem is going to be when Europe and the rest of the world stabilize economically....those US Dollars will be excess.
Talk to anyone who survived hyperinflation during the weimar republic...
Why would you want to do that? Comparisons with the Wiemar Republic are irrelevant. Was the German Mark the international reserve currency? Was it the international currency of trade? No, to both questions. That's like comparing apples to pick-up trucks. Other than the fact that both might be red in color, there are no other similarities.
You will have Real Inflation. It will set in, at the earliest, about 11 years from now in 2023, and last for more than a decade. I'm predicting 35%-45% annually on average, which would be worse than the post-WW I Era Real Inflation (about 15%-20%), but not nearly as bad as the rampant Real Inflation that existed at the end of the 1st Great Depression (of the 19th Century) and the Civil War period (about 100%-200% --- 400% or more in some parts of the US until the National Banking Acts came to be).
But still, neither will the US Dollar nor your economy collapse.
Every city, county, state, in the nation IS in horrific debt, your not taking into account future obligations, inflation, and less tax revenue, the surpluses your so pleased with are denominated in Federal Reserve notes which lose purchasing power annually, the Dollar has lost 98% of it's value in the last 100 years since the Federal Reserve (which is a private bank and is no more federal than federal express) took over. Oh No now your gonna debunk my federal reserve statement, lets save that for another thread, I refer to my previous statement.
Ah, yes, the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is a central bank. The fact that it is called the Federal Reserve and not the Central Bank of the United States, does not alter the fact that the Federal Reserve is a central bank. The Federal Reserve does exactly what every central bank on Earth does. Or, you could say that the Federal Reserve is no different than any other central bank on Earth -- other than perhaps it has a weird name -- like Federal Reserve.
There is nothing --- absolutely nothing -- that the Federal Reserve can do that cannot be undone or negated by the US Congress.
If the Federal Reserve increases the Money Supply, then Congress can undo that by raising taxes, or cutting spending or half a dozen other actions. If the Federal Reserve decreases the Money Supply, Congress can undo that by lowering taxes, increasing spending and an host of other actions. If the Federal Reserve decreases the fractional rate, Congress can undo that. If it increases the fractional rate, Congress can negate that as well. If the Federal Reserve is taking actions that result in interest rates that are below Free Market rates, Congress can rain all over the Federal Reserve's parade.
So what's the problem?
And let's be honest about what is really happening. Americans elect idiots to Congress who spend more money than the Earth has, because ---- Americans want everything and they want it for "Free." The Federal Reserve is only trying to fix the mistakes that Americans keep making over, and over, and over, and over.
I guess blame is more fun to give than receive.