Global Economic Collapse coming and the Gold/silver rule

cheeple

Member
The Global economic system will collapse when the U.S. Dollar collapses, official debt is close to $16 Trillion and real debt including future obligations estimated at $222 Trillion.

The Deriviates market is 1.4 Quadrillion with JP Morgan Chase alone having $70 Trillion in derivatives exposure, goldman Sachs with $44.2 Trillion, Citibank with $52.1 Trillion, and Bank of America with $50.1 Trillion to name a few.

The Baby Boomer generation will all be applying for they're entitlements over the next couple years while tax revenues will decline as unemployment rises.

The U.S. is no longer the reserve petro dollar it once was, China and Japan have agreed to do transactions with eachother in they're own currencies and India has agreed to purchase Oil from Iran with GOLD.

Scranton Pennsylvania has had to resort to paying police minimum wage and here in california tax revenues declined 33%, all fiat currencies will reach their ultimate demise, it's historical and we are no longer immune, there will not be another currency to flock to as their historically has been, only Gold and Silver will keep it's purchasing power until we come up with a new system and a change in Paradigm.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
A) When do you think it will happen?
B) How much (in anything of value, gold, bullets, food) would you wager on it happening by that time if I give you 2:1 odds?
 

Gunguy45

Senior Member.
Nothing like a nice meal of gold filet and silver garnish.

If/when collapse comes....precious metals are worth squat. May as well say diamonds.

Metals investment would assume the economy would recover....and aren't there more important things than gold and silver? Silicon or platinum? Heck...copper would probably be the most sought after item.
 

cheeple

Member
in the next 10 years GUARANTEED but my personal opinion is within the next 5 years, it's evident as we are on a spending spree of $11 Trillion a year, it's almost like their spending the money while it's still good.

I'd be willing to bet $1000 federal reserve notes within the next 5 years.

We are not waiting for the collapse to happen one morning when you wake up, it's happening right now, every city, county, state, in the nation is in Horrific debt and now do not have anywhere to go to alleviate that debt and no where to go to help absorb that debt. We only have a couple choices print more FRN's and cause inflation, then runaway hyperinflation, or Devalue the corrency and pay our debts in watered down currency causing deflation, both will usher in the demise of the World Reserve Currency known as the Federal Reserve Note. I do know what can be done but I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
 

cheeple

Member
Nothing like a nice meal of gold filet and silver garnish.

If/when collapse comes....precious metals are worth squat. May as well say diamonds.

Metals investment would assume the economy would recover....and aren't there more important things than gold and silver? Silicon or platinum? Heck...copper would probably be the most sought after item.
Talk to anyone who survived hyperinflation during the weimar republic, only Gold and silver saved them, it's been money since Roman times and before, it's the only thing that satisfies the requirements of what true money is, it's not a currency issued by a government then decreed to have value. Gold and silver can NEVER be worthless nor can they ever go down to $0.00 as it requires money and labor to extract it from the earth alone.

Also learn what money is and you will understand Diamonds are not money because they are not fungible.
 

Gunguy45

Senior Member.
every city, county, state, in the nation is in Horrific debt
Well...cheeple....you are incorrect.

The city I live in here in AZ has about a $5M surplus in the "rainy day" fund (as I remember). That even after some bad decisions on investments and lawsuits.

My old home town in OH is completely solvent and has had no issues.


Should we check for more?
 

cheeple

Member
Nothing like a nice meal of gold filet and silver garnish.

If/when collapse comes....precious metals are worth squat. May as well say diamonds.

Metals investment would assume the economy would recover....and aren't there more important things than gold and silver? Silicon or platinum? Heck...copper would probably be the most sought after item.
Silicon and Platinum not money because it's not easily recognizable, and but if your talking about things being money because they are inherintly in demand then your talking about a barter or system of exchange system which also works locally and in the short term, in the end only Gold and Silver are money.
 

cheeple

Member
Well...cheeple....you are incorrect.

The city I live in here in AZ has about a $5M surplus in the "rainy day" fund (as I remember). That even after some bad decisions on investments and lawsuits.

My old home town in OH is completely solvent and has had no issues.


Should we check for more?
Wow a whole $5 million in surplus wally?
 

Gunguy45

Senior Member.
For a town of 20,000+ people, do you think that is excessive or not adequate? That's just the general fund....quick look shows more in specific project funds.

And may I ask what your reserve funds are? Gold and silver? Useless...... since most places would have no clue as to it's value, except as speculation. I think a more accurate scenerio might be in the "book of eli" movie. Except for the flesh eating zombie types of course.

Whats the "wally" reference ?
 

cheeple

Member
Gold and silver useless, yeah maybe, George Soros would have agreed with you in 2010 when he said Gold was in a bubble, but he just doubled his Gold Holdings to $137 Million In the SPDR Physically Allocated Gold, notice he didnt put his money in the GLD Paper gold market.

Another billionaire investor respected for his financial acumen is John Paulson and Paulson & Co increased its holdings by 26% by purchasing an additional 4.53 million shares of the SPDR Gold Trust to bring entire holding to 21.8 million shares.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/soro...n-trumpeted-bubble-words-2012-8#ixzz23waOl8NV

China is returning the Yuan to a Gold Backed Currency

Central Banks worldwide are increasing their Gold Reserves and have legitimized it more by making it a Tier 1 asset.

They all must agree with you Gold and silver will be worthless in the event of economic collapse.

http://www.businessinsider.com/soros-gold-action-speaks-louder-than-trumpeted-bubble-words-2012-8
 

SR1419

Senior Member.
China is returning the Yuan to a Gold Backed Currency

You state it if as it were a fact...when its not....it speculation.

First, you throw comments that are blatantly false...and now try to pass of pure speculation as fact.

Whats the deal with that?

Will you acknowledge it or simply ignore it and move on to other dubious statements?
 

cheeple

Member
You state it if as it were a fact...when its not....it speculation.

First, you throw comments that are blatantly false...and now try to pass of pure speculation as fact.

Whats the deal with that?

Will you acknowledge it or simply ignore it and move on to other dubious statements?
China returning to a Gold Backed Yuan is Blatantly False? that's the only thing you can debunk simply because they have not confirmed it? I considered making a Precious metals thread separately so let me refer to my previous statement.

I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
 

SR1419

Senior Member.
China returning to a Gold Backed Yuan is Blatantly False? that's the only thing you can debunk simply because they have not confirmed it? I considered making a Precious metals thread separately so let me refer to my previous statement.[/]

Sorry if I wasn't clear...that is not what I meant...

The comment on China is pure speculation that you stated as a fact.

The balantly false comment was the "every City, county, state in the nation is in horrific debt"....
 

cheeple

Member
Every city, county, state, in the nation IS in horrific debt, your not taking into account future obligations, inflation, and less tax revenue, the surpluses your so pleased with are denominated in Federal Reserve notes which lose purchasing power annually, the Dollar has lost 98% of it's value in the last 100 years since the Federal Reserve (which is a private bank and is no more federal than federal express) took over. Oh No now your gonna debunk my federal reserve statement, lets save that for another thread, I refer to my previous statement.

Originally Posted by cheeple
I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
 
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cheeple

Member
Wrong, sorry. North Dakota has a spending surplus of almost a billion. Debt is 5 billion and decreasing.
So the debt is $5 Billion and they have $1 Billion.................ok you got me, but I refer to my previous statement

Originally Posted by cheeple
I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
 
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cheeple

Member
North Dakota may have a debt of 5 billion, but it is decreasing and is not in a major crisis.
Ok you thoroughly debunked me, but I refer to my previous statement:

Originally Posted by cheeple
I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
 
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Marko

New Member
The Global economic system will collapse when the U.S. Dollar collapses....
No, the global economic system will do just fine. The Euro is stronger than the US Dollar, and the Ruble is stable. There are many other stable currencies such as the Swiss Franc.

...official debt is close to $16 Trillion and real debt including future obligations estimated at $222 Trillion.
Your unfunded obligations are a little on the high side. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that you are including unfunded obligations by States, counties and cities, as well as other unfunded obligations, such as corporate pension plans, in addition the future money owed by the federal government.

The Baby Boomer generation will all be applying for they're entitlements over the next couple years while tax revenues will decline as unemployment rises.
Agreed, but that has no bearing on the collapse of the US Dollar.

The economists in your government are grotesquely incompetent to be sure -- to the point of being criminally negligent, but that only impacts what happens in the US, not the world. If you would like to see an example of the criminal negligence of the "you-Harvards" in your government, you need only to to read this:

2012 Annual Report Of The Boards Of Trustees Of The Federal Hospital Insurance And Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds Page 7 (Page 13 in Acrobat) said:
The projected average annual rate of growth for the U.S. economy is 5.0 percent during this period...
This "period" is 2012 to 2021 --- 5.0% GDP growth? That is impossible.

It is impossible for a number of reasons, but mainly because post-Industrialized States only average 3.0%; because since 1961, the average annual growth rate in the US has been 2.89%; and because the economic conditions at present and for the foreseeable future will not permit a 5.0% growth rate. In fact, it already failed since 1st Quarter GDP was 1.9% and the first estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP is 1.5% (with the first revision due August 29). So these claims, that the DI Trust Fund (Social Security Disability) will fail in 2015; that the HI (Medicare) Trust Fund will fail in 2024; and that the OASI Trust Fund will fail in 2033 are all wrong.

They will all fail much earlier than that. The DI Trust Fund will fail sometime in 2014, HI (Medicare) in the last half of 2018, and OASI circa 2023-2025.

Those programs are dead. You cannot "save" them. However, you can extend the life of those programs to about 2035-2040 -- after that, you'll have to come up with something new for Generation X and Generation Y and Generation Z. Unfortunately, the cost -- the price America will have to pay -- to extend those programs is more than Americans could ever bear. Those programs can be extended if, and only if, the wage/salary cap is eliminated, the SECA tax is increased (for Medicare), the FICA tax is increased and means-testing is used for both Medicare and Social Security, and in the case of Medicare, you will have to employ, uh, I guess "Death Panels" (for lack of a better word/phrase).

If Generation X and Generation Y and Generation Z want anything even close to remotely resembling Social Security as people know it now, you'll have to incrementally increase the FICA tax rate to about 24% prior to 2040 -- meaning you pay 12% and your employer pays 12%. That will seriously damage your economy, due to the decrease in disposable income for all households, which will be declining anyway. Your States, counties and cities will be cut to the bone as far as wages, pensions and services to the public. I suppose the union -backed government employees can go on strike if they want, but that would be futile, since you cannot squeeze blood out of turnip.

But that will not cause the US Dollar to collapse, rather it will just reduce the standard of living for Americans to the point that America is like a very ritzy Belarus.

The U.S. is no longer the reserve petro dollar it once was, China and Japan have agreed to do transactions with eachother in they're own currencies and India has agreed to purchase Oil from Iran with GOLD.
You've conflated the issue here.

Among the effects of WW II and the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker) is that the US Dollar became the de facto international reserve currency, and the de facto international currency of trade.

Prior to the year 2000, if you wanted to buy or sell any commodity on the world market, be it oil, natural gas, corn, rice, wheat, barely, soy beans, cotton, flaxen, linen, gold, silver, and other precious metals, metal ores such as iron, bauxite, lead, tin, copper et al, non-metallic minerals, like phosphates, salts etc, you paid in US Dollars....

...or you sat in a corner and sulked.

Then came the Euro....and the Ruble....and basket currencies.

The value of the US Dollar globally is a function of the Supply & Demand for US Dollars globally. Given all the problems in Europe, why is the Euro still more valuable than the US Dollar? Because the Global Demand for Euros is greater than the Global Demand for US Dollars, relative to the Global Supply of each currency.

Add to that the fact that since 1997 or so when the Moscow Exchange opened and the Ruble was finally traded on the world market for the first time since the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker), Russia sells 9 Million barrels of oil per day, plus millions of cubic meters of natural gas (and other commodities) and if you want to buy them, then you had best have lots of Euros and Rubles...

....because Russia does not accept US Dollars in payment.

Iran is now operating the Kish Island Exchange, and trading commodities like oil, natural gas and the like in basket currencies, instead of exclusively in US Dollars. If you understand that, then you can understand the idle threats and continued harassment by the three countries that stand to lose the most from a weak US Dollar -- the US, USrael, and Saudi America.

Even if China, Japan and Korea et al joined in a unified Asian currency, it would not result in the collapse of the US Dollar, rather it would just result in a decline in the standard of living for Americans, but then in reality, the standard of living for Americans is way over-inflated -- so in the end, Americans end up having a much lower standard of living --- the very same standard of living that Americans would have always had, were it not for WW II, the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker) and US Foreign Policy.

in the next 10 years GUARANTEED but my personal opinion is within the next 5 years, it's evident as we are on a spending spree of $11 Trillion a year, it's almost like their spending the money while it's still good.

I'd be willing to bet $1000 federal reserve notes within the next 5 years.
Then you lost that bet.

We are not waiting for the collapse to happen one morning when you wake up, it's happening right now, every city, county, state, in the nation is in Horrific debt and now do not have anywhere to go to alleviate that debt and no where to go to help absorb that debt. We only have a couple choices print more FRN's and cause inflation, then runaway hyperinflation, or Devalue the corrency and pay our debts in watered down currency causing deflation, both will usher in the demise of the World Reserve Currency known as the Federal Reserve Note. I do know what can be done but I want to know what the debunkers believe will happen if we stay on present course.
Real Inflation is a function of Supply & Demand for a currency. The US is a special exception due to the fact that the US Dollar is still more or less the de facto international reserve currency, and the de facto international currency of trade.

When you look at the potential for Real Inflation, we use a coefficient of absorption. Maybe 18 months (or more) ago when I was looking at it, I figured the Global Economy could absorb about $9 TRILLION to $13 TRILLION excess US Dollars at the time. Due to the economic problems in Europe (and elsewhere) there's not really much point in revisiting it. Suffice to say that the Global Economy can -- at present -- handle more than $13 TRILLION.

The problem is going to be when Europe and the rest of the world stabilize economically....those US Dollars will be excess.

Talk to anyone who survived hyperinflation during the weimar republic...
Why would you want to do that? Comparisons with the Wiemar Republic are irrelevant. Was the German Mark the international reserve currency? Was it the international currency of trade? No, to both questions. That's like comparing apples to pick-up trucks. Other than the fact that both might be red in color, there are no other similarities.

You will have Real Inflation. It will set in, at the earliest, about 11 years from now in 2023, and last for more than a decade. I'm predicting 35%-45% annually on average, which would be worse than the post-WW I Era Real Inflation (about 15%-20%), but not nearly as bad as the rampant Real Inflation that existed at the end of the 1st Great Depression (of the 19th Century) and the Civil War period (about 100%-200% --- 400% or more in some parts of the US until the National Banking Acts came to be).

But still, neither will the US Dollar nor your economy collapse.

Every city, county, state, in the nation IS in horrific debt, your not taking into account future obligations, inflation, and less tax revenue, the surpluses your so pleased with are denominated in Federal Reserve notes which lose purchasing power annually, the Dollar has lost 98% of it's value in the last 100 years since the Federal Reserve (which is a private bank and is no more federal than federal express) took over. Oh No now your gonna debunk my federal reserve statement, lets save that for another thread, I refer to my previous statement.
Ah, yes, the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve is a central bank. The fact that it is called the Federal Reserve and not the Central Bank of the United States, does not alter the fact that the Federal Reserve is a central bank. The Federal Reserve does exactly what every central bank on Earth does. Or, you could say that the Federal Reserve is no different than any other central bank on Earth -- other than perhaps it has a weird name -- like Federal Reserve.

There is nothing --- absolutely nothing -- that the Federal Reserve can do that cannot be undone or negated by the US Congress.

If the Federal Reserve increases the Money Supply, then Congress can undo that by raising taxes, or cutting spending or half a dozen other actions. If the Federal Reserve decreases the Money Supply, Congress can undo that by lowering taxes, increasing spending and an host of other actions. If the Federal Reserve decreases the fractional rate, Congress can undo that. If it increases the fractional rate, Congress can negate that as well. If the Federal Reserve is taking actions that result in interest rates that are below Free Market rates, Congress can rain all over the Federal Reserve's parade.

So what's the problem?

And let's be honest about what is really happening. Americans elect idiots to Congress who spend more money than the Earth has, because ---- Americans want everything and they want it for "Free." The Federal Reserve is only trying to fix the mistakes that Americans keep making over, and over, and over, and over.

I guess blame is more fun to give than receive.
 

Spongebob

Active Member
Erm?

You just screw the poor by making more cuts to services, health, education, basically everything. Call it something like "Austerity".

Any government debts (incurred on your behalf) to bail out a failed financial system will eventually be paid off (perhaps).

In the mean time give them KFC and plenty of TV and hope they don`t notice...
 

cheeple

Member
No, the global economic system will do just fine. The Euro is stronger than the US Dollar, and the Ruble is stable. There are many other stable currencies such as the Swiss Franc.
In a scenario in which the U.S. Dollar were to crash it would disrupt all Industrialized nations, Their is no long term confidence in the Euro, infact it's that lack of confidence that is sending investors into the U.S. Stockmarket.


Your unfunded obligations are a little on the high side. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that you are including unfunded obligations by States, counties and cities, as well as other unfunded obligations, such as corporate pension plans, in addition the future money owed by the federal government.
True, and that number is rising

The economists in your government are grotesquely incompetent to be sure -- to the point of being criminally negligent, but that only impacts what happens in the US, not the world. If you would like to see an example of the criminal negligence of the "you-Harvards" in your government, you need only to to read this:
Yes most U.S. economists have adopted a Keynesian style economic because to put fourth an Austrian plan would be career suicide sadly.


This "period" is 2012 to 2021 --- 5.0% GDP growth? That is impossible.
Agreed, so sounds like we're on the same page here, along with most of what followed, it's true we cannot continue on this path, social security will fail, medi-care will fail, and alot of people are waking up to it, you mentioned Generation X and Y, we know there will not be social security for us, it's a Ponzi scheme, I've woken up and taken contol of my finances and many others have also. Still many dont save, dont invest, or if they do it's all in the Paper Market which could go instantly down to $0.00 at any time.

Iran is now operating the Kish Island Exchange, and trading commodities like oil, natural gas and the like in basket currencies, instead of exclusively in US Dollars. If you understand that, then you can understand the idle threats and continued harassment by the three countries that stand to lose the most from a weak US Dollar -- the US, USrael, and Saudi America.
Exactly what Politicians have been trying to prevent, The U.S. Dollar losing it's petro reserve status, they thought by putting a whooping on Saddam it would send a message to the rest of the Oil Producing nations (Dont F with us, keep accepting our federal reserve notes ) , then the same thing with Gadaffi, he wanted to abandon the U.S. Dollar as well, for GOLD, next on the hitlist is Iran in the name of "preventing terrorism"..... Alot of Americans have woken up, we see this, we recognize it.

Even if China, Japan and Korea et al joined in a unified Asian currency, it would not result in the collapse of the US Dollar, rather it would just result in a decline in the standard of living for Americans, but then in reality, the standard of living for Americans is way over-inflated -- so in the end, Americans end up having a much lower standard of living --- the very same standard of living that Americans would have always had, were it not for WW II, the Bretton Woods "Agreement" (snicker) and US Foreign Policy.
Agreed let me go on to say a decline in the living standards for Americans Would be a collapse. The standard of living for "middle class" is shrinking daily, the poverty class grows daily, 42 Million Americans are already on food stamps or some type of federal aid.

Also in regard to my "bet" with mick in which I stated I would be willing to place $1000 federal reserve notes the economy would fail in 5 years were I to bet, you stated that I already "lost that bet", you said it in the past tense, and I think you would agree it was presumptuous and a premature thing to say.

The problem is going to be when Europe and the rest of the world stabilize economically....those US Dollars will be excess.
i dont believe the Euro will ever stabalize since there is no one left to absorb the debt, but it is a scary thought, and true, if the Euro were to ever be seen as a strong currency for the long term, ALL the smart money would flock there, leaving the U.S. Stockmarket in peril.



You will have Real Inflation. It will set in, at the earliest, about 11 years from now in 2023, and last for more than a decade.
I believe your talking about Hypeinflation and I agree, I only disagree with your time line.


And let's be honest about what is really happening. Americans elect idiots to Congress who spend more money than the Earth has, because ---- Americans want everything and they want it for "Free."
It's true, many Americans want a "gimme gimme" program where food stamps, free medical, and even Jobs are a "Right", like I say dont judge all Americans many are waking up, and taking responsibility for themselves for Liberty's sake.
 

Marko

New Member
In a scenario in which the U.S. Dollar were to crash it would disrupt all Industrialized nations, Their is no confidence in the Euro, infact it's that lack of weakness that is sending the money into the U.S. Stockmarket.
The impact is not that great. Many countries diversified and now hold gold, silver, Euros, and US Dollars (or other currencies like the Pound Sterling or Swiss Franc). A weak US Dollar is great for those countries. They can import cheaply from the US, and they can buy up US companies for practically nothing. Don't forget that the DJIA is not the only stock market on Earth.

Yes most U.S. economists have adopted a Keynesian style economic because to put fourth an Austrian plan would be career suicide sadly.
I have no idea what that means. We didn't spend a lot of time on theory. Mostly we crunched numbers: fix this, fix that, what mistakes were made here, and that kind of thing. I guess most of our professors were Friedman-types. I hope the Austrian-thing isn't the silly Gold Standard nonsense. You'd be on the Gold Standard all of 37 minutes and 42 seconds before you were begging to go back to fiat currency.

You do understand that Capital has an inherent need to expand, right? Doesn't matter which property theory you use (Capitalist, Socialist, Communist or hybrid), and it doesn't matter which economic system (Free Market, Command, Traditional or hybrid) you pair up with your property theory. I mean you could have Communist property theory with Free Market economics system. No one has ever tried that, but you could do it.

You have 50 people in a village, everyone eats corn for food, and now you have 4 newborns and 5 families have moved into your village. Either everyone has less corn to eat, or you have to expand your Capital to gain more corn: you need seeds, more land, more equipment and more labor -- and then all of that uses up more Capital. If you're importing corn, then you'll have to come up with more money to buy more of it. If you're trading cotton for corn, then you'll have to grow more cotton to trade for more corn.

I think it was Keynes who said something to the effect that, "in the end we're all dead." That's what he meant -- you'll run out of Capital eventually.

Agreed, so sounds like we're on the same page here, along with most of what followed, it's true we cannot continue on this path, social security will fail, medi-care will fail, and alot of people are waking up to it, you mentioned Generation X and Y, we know there will not be social security for us, it's a Ponzi scheme, I've woken up and taken contol of my finances and many others have also. Still many dont save, dont invest, or if they do it's all in the Paper Market which could go instantly down to $0.00 at any time.
Yes, it is a Ponzi-Scheme. In a court of law, the only thing I have to prove is that the scheme will collapse if there are no new "investors." If you bar new hires from paying into Social Security/Medicare, what happens? The schemes collapse, ergo they are Ponzi-Schemes.

You need to be really careful, because there's a lot of propaganda and disinformation out there preying on the ignorant. I'm an ultra-conservative, and I have no qualms with Social Security in principle, but I do have issues with the federal government running it. As a point of fact, when FDR was governor of New York State, he set up a social security program for New York State residents, so the States can certainly operate their own programs. If you do a Cost-Benefit Analysis, the benefits of having an end-of-life insurance program like Social Security far outweigh the costs.

When you hear people talking about the ROI (return on investment) for Social Security, you know they're either pushing an agenda or they have no clue what they're talking about. You can slam the door on them by asking, "What's the ROI on your homeowner's/auto insurance?" then watch them stutter and tap-dance.

OASI - Old Age and Survivor's Insurance.

It's a real simple concept: Would you pay $6.20 out of every $100 you earn so that you don't have to live on the streets and panhandle when you retire? Would you pay $6.20 out of every $100 you earn so that your spouse isn't living in the streets eating out of garbage cans?

If not, then why not?
If we could all predict the Future and know exactly how our lives would turn out, then we wouldn't need an insurance program to guarantee basic subsistence living when we retired (which is the purpose and function of Social Security).Anyway, don't let them force you into some kind of 401(k) plan or other nonsense, because that will end up being a disaster.

Agreed let me go on to say a decline in the living standards for Americans Would be a collapse.
But the changes are gradual, and imperceptible to most people. I'm sure some will be noticeably affected, but not the majority.

Also in regard to my "bet" with mick in which I stated I would be willing to place $1000 federal reserve notes the economy would fail in 5 years were I to bet, you stated that I already "lost that bet", you said it in the past tense, and I think you would agree it was presumptuous and a premature thing to say.
No, I know what I'm talking about. Your economy is bad, but not horrid. It will be bad for a long time, and it will never really get better, rather it will be less worse or not as bad.

The FICA tax holiday is going to have to come to an end soon, and you'll take an hit for that; the Obama Tax Cuts will have to expire and you get hit for that; and then both Medicare and Social Security are calling for tax increases. They're nominal, but still impact negatively. Social Security is asking for an immediate increase to 7.05% (each), but that isn't enough. It really needs to be 9.0+% for any hope of Social Security paying 100% benefits through 2025.

But that won't crash your economy. There are many hard and fast laws in Economics, but there are also many theories there are heavily dependent on know how people (consumers) will react -- and you cannot always know or predict that. We know for a fact that the price of gasoline is inelastic in the short-term, but elastic over the long-term. The problem is figuring out when consumers will start seeking substitutes, and there's no way to know.

i dont believe the Euro will ever stabalize since there is no one left to absorb the debt, but it is a scary thought, and true, if the Euro were to ever be seen as a strong currency for the long term, ALL the smart money would flock there, leaving the U.S. Stockmarket in peril.
There's nothing wrong with the Euro. Spain and Italy owe money mostly to each other. Greece's debt is miniscule -- about 0.6% of the EU GDP. I'm not about to panic over a mere 0.6% (but obviously others are).

I believe your talking about Hypeinflation and I agree, I only disagree with your time line.
We're talking about the economy. It isn't a train; it doesn't run on a schedule. It's a lot more complicated than "increase the money supply and 5 minutes later you have X% Real Inflation." It takes years and years. Look at the Real Inflation during the Civil War. It took nearly a decade of spending during the Great Depression and then lots of Civil War spending to create Real Inflation, and then other factors were involved as well, namely that banks printed their own money. They actually published a magazine each month showing drawings of all the various types of currencies in the US and how much each of them was worth. Same with the post-WW I Era. It took a lot of spending to ward off the Panics in the 1st Decade, and then spending on WW I and other spending which led to Real Inflation. Same with the 1970s. It took years and years and years of spending in Vietnam, and then the Grotesque Society, and then a few other things, like Wage Inflation and the subsequent Wage & Price Freeze, to create Real Inflation (and that really wasn't that bad).

It took Reagan and Volker about 5-6 years to pull, I don't remember, a measly $1 TRILLION to $1.5 TRILLION out of the economy (money supply). These clowns are pumping in $TRILLIONS and $TRILLIONS, and according to the Mid-Session Review it's going to be about $14 to $18 TRILLION by 2022 (the National Debt is projected to be $25.4 TRILLION by 2022). It will take longer than 5-6 years to get rid of that.
 

cheeple

Member
The impact is not that great. Many countries diversified and now hold gold, silver, Euros, and US Dollars (or other currencies like the Pound Sterling or Swiss Franc). A weak US Dollar is great for those countries. They can import cheaply from the US, and they can buy up US companies for practically nothing. Don't forget that the DJIA is not the only stock market on Earth.
And they are smart for diversifying, especially the chinese who are buying Gold hand over fist and just recently the chief advisor to the Chinese central bank recommended Silver as well.

I have no idea what that means. We didn't spend a lot of time on theory. Mostly we crunched numbers: fix this, fix that, what mistakes were made here, and that kind of thing. I guess most of our professors were Friedman-types. I hope the Austrian-thing isn't the silly Gold Standard nonsense. You'd be on the Gold Standard all of 37 minutes and 42 seconds before you were begging to go back to fiat currency.
You have a degree in economics but dont understand Keynsian vs Austrian economics? Ben Bernanke is a big on the Keynsian philosophies in which the government can print money (or press a couple keys on a computer) and create billions and trillions out of thin air without any consequences, the Austrian school of Sound Money, smaller government intervention, and free market philosphy is in line with your self proclaimed ultra conservative views.

the benefits of having an end-of-life insurance program like Social Security far outweigh the costs.
Yes it does in theory if that money was actually treated responsibly, every American knows the money they put into it (without choice) is G.O.N.E., It's a great plan in theory, and did you know the U.S. governement just publically stated for the first time recipients WILL receive less than they've contributed.
We're talking about a broken system here, I dont have confidence that money will be there when I need it.

When you hear people talking about the ROI (return on investment) for Social Security, you know they're either pushing an agenda or they have no clue what they're talking about. You can slam the door on them by asking, "What's the ROI on your homeowner's/auto insurance?" then watch them stutter and tap-dance.
There really is not any reason to believe a return on investment is not do-able, especially if we were allowed more control of those finances in the private market. But once again that money is not dependable nor is our 401K's which I have only because I cannot access it unless I quit or get let go.


But the changes are gradual, and imperceptible to most people. I'm sure some will be noticeably affected, but not the majority.
True like turning up boiling water on a mouse who will never know whats going on til it's too late


No, I know what I'm talking about. Your economy is bad, but not horrid. It will be bad for a long time, and it will never really get better, rather it will be less worse or not as bad.
I'm not sure if your American or if you have lived here but that is a subjective statement, yes if you go to Manhattan or here in the Silicon Valley everything is running smooth, people have jobs, eating at restaurants every night, but go to Detroit where the median home price is $6000 yes six thousand dollars, or go to Scranton Pennsylvania where the police and city workers had their pay slashed to minimum wage $7.50 an hour (i'm pretty sure) or here in California where Vallejo and Stockton have declared Bankruptcy.


There's nothing wrong with the Euro. Spain and Italy owe money mostly to each other. Greece's debt is miniscule -- about 0.6% of the EU GDP. I'm not about to panic over a mere 0.6% (but obviously others are).

You are underestimating the debt in the EU, Spains real debt is over 146% of GPD, Italy is over 120% of GDP, and Greece is over 143% of GDP, Germany is now offering Bonds at 0.00% Interest. This is a bomb waiting to explode, please before you write back to "debunk" please look into it more and you will see for yourself.
 

cheeple

Member
Seems old man Rothchild is betting against the Euro:

If the actions of Lord Jacob Rothschild are anything to go by, the long predicted collapse of the Euro may not be far away, with the banking titan placing a $200 million dollar bet against the troubled single currency.​

“Lord Rothschild, an elder member of the dynastic Rothschild banking family, has taken the position against the euro through RIT Capital Partners, the 1.9 billion poundinvestment trust of which he is executive chairman,” reports CNBC.​
RIT has upped its short against the Euro from 3 per cent in January to 7 per cent in July.​
The European Central Bank continues to try to re-animate a dead corpse by continually pumping bailout money into debt-ridden countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.​
However, top investors only see it as a matter of time before the single currency is consigned to the landfill of economic history.​
Last week, influential German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that “Banks, companies and investors are preparing themselves for a collapse of the euro.”​
 
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MikeC

Closed Account
Yay - at last at least someone has managed to actually provide a link to back up their claims!!:rolleyes:

But you know something - "everyone" preparing for the crash of the Euro means "everyone" is not going to be surprised....and pretty much only the Europeans are going to suffer the worst of it.

Other nations hedging against it will see their trade change.....but preparation means they won't collapse - that's why they ar preparing.

So yeah - it does seem likely the Euro will collapse....but the links you provided also make it seem likely that it will not tigger a global collapse.
 

cheeple

Member
John Paulson invests $10 Billion in Gold

Let's Not Call John Paulson a Gold Bug -- He's a Hedge Fund Chief Who Invests Like a Gold Bug


Buying gold doesn’t make a whole lot of financial sense in Warren Buffet’s estimation, and he even did the math to prove it, see the story here. But some people just aren’t getting Uncle Warren’s message, and chief among them is hedge fund billionaire John Paulson. Investments tied to gold are now 44% of his $21 billion hedge fund portfolio, Bloomberg reports. That’s up from 33% at the end of the first quarter. He bought 4.53 million shares of SPDRGold Trust (GLD) and more shares of NovaGold Resources (NG).
Paulson, of course, made his first few billion by betting on a housing market collapse. And once you’re a billionaire trader, you must be really smart, right? After all, he had 46% of his portfolio in gold in March 2009, when the stock market hit the ground. And he’s not the only billionaire buying gold. George Soros is doing it, too.
According to Bloomberg, Paulson told clients this year “that gold is his best long-term best, serving as protection against currency debasement, rising inflation and a possible breakup of the euro.” In other words, gold’s a hedge against bad shit happening.
Paulson can be wrong. He lost $3 billion last year, according to Forbes. A little bet on Bank of America (BAC) didn’t help.
Unfortunately for Paulson now, gold prices are not cooperating. Paulson notes that gold miners are cheap (cheaper than gold, anyway). (True, as we said,
but there are still reasons not to like them.)


[/COLOR]
 

MikeC

Closed Account
Investing in gold only makes sense if you think currencies are going to remain viable and exchangeable for gold.

So in the current climate it makes good sense - currencies are devaluing, but will remain around, so gold is a financial investment that fits within the financial system.

Take that financial system away and suddenly the market for gold becomes extremely unsure.
 

MrCamelot

New Member
I know this is an older thread but I have my faith in what Tony Robbins says about our economy. I think it's undeniable that our economy is in very bad shape, unless you are a politician or in the military.
[h=1]WARNING: Tony Robbins issues dire predictions on the coming collapse[/h]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRaLytkf6vU

It's kind of hard to debunk the truth about our economy and the direction it's heading, fast...
 
U

Unregistered

Guest
Well...cheeple....you are incorrect.

The city I live in here in AZ has about a $5M surplus in the "rainy day" fund (as I remember). That even after some bad decisions on investments and lawsuits.

My old home town in OH is completely solvent and has had no issues.


Should we check for more?


Totally agree with you, there is no real value in gold or silver, its an inanimate object no different than a paper dollar. Its a pay system. The dollar collapses? So what? The dollar has the value the people believe in it an put in it. There is already no gold or silver backing the dollars in circulation, so technically the "collapse" wouldn't have to affect this country whatsoever. Stop dealing with other countries, throw away nafta and be self sufficient. Bring our military home and stop being the world's police. There is no reason that GOLD has to be anything to anyone...its useless. Give me gold, what do I do with it? can I eat it or something? heck no. Give me plastics, timber, copper...like you said, these are things that are useful. For that matter, rid the US of paper money all together, go to complete digital funds. Now you've removed the ability to launder money and move cash back and forth untaxed. No more under the table businesses. (though this is nice to have, technically it is people avoiding paying their share and thats a large portion of the debt) Remove import export and suddenly the unemployment issues are all but resolved. Agreed....gold and silver? Who cares, its a pay system no different than paper money. In the end, the only value in it is what we believe is there.
 

Woody

Member
My recommendations after being overseas in the USMC, Alcohol, Cigarettes, and coffee never loose their trade value. Additionally food resources, fuel, and a persons skills and knowledge will be a great value as well.
 

Woody

Member
Collapse of capitalism will not come from debt when they can print more and set its value. Capitalism can rebound from these things. When either food or fuel runs short, then capitalism will fail, Graineries are empty my friends and if we do not have a productive year, massive starvation begins and our leaders must decide which nations die. All food resources are used up, Australia is a failure again, and Argentina lost more than 20% before the season began.
 

Grieves

Senior Member
There is already no gold or silver backing the dollars in circulation, so technically the "collapse" wouldn't have to affect this country whatsoever. Stop dealing with other countries, throw away nafta and be self sufficient. Bring our military home and stop being the world's police. There is no reason that GOLD has to be anything to anyone...its useless.
I think you're definitely missing the point. It's true, you can't eat gold, can't use gold as a blanket, and can't start fires with gold... so in the simplest survival sense, yes, gold has absolutely no value. Human beings have been living beyond simple survival for thousands of years. The monetary values we assign -most- things are purely artificial, but that it's artificial doesn't change the fact that the monetary value is still there. The value of gold, though ever-fluctuating, is universal at this point... entire civilizations have been more or less wiped out for the stuff, so there's hardly a corner of the world that doesn't equate gold with money. This universal belief is what gives gold its value as a currency. You might call it 'fake', but then you're calling the whole financial system beyond barter-trading 'fake'. I wouldn't necessarily disagree with you, but I'm not about to pretend monetary trade doesn't exist and then try to survive without it. That's generally described as being destitute, and typically isn't all that pleasant. That or it's quite pleasant until someone who does believe in the monetary system buys your land from someone else who believes in the monetary system, and armed believers in the monetary system shoo you away/shoot you dead for trespassing.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/frenzy...manys-post-world-war-ii-gold-reserves/5319287

Interesting article from those outspoken cooks at Global Research. Whether you agree with the positions frequently taken by article-writers there or not, its a relatively solid source of 'off-the-mainstream' news a lot of the time. This particular article discusses how German banks are repatriating massive amounts of gold from France and the US, and the effect its having on markets.
 
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