That's not how parallax works. Nor how perspective works.
(cue the Father Ted clip. It does NOT say "small and far away".)
But you can count on the UFO witness in your story to fail to take a clear photo. :p
As a bayesian, I would say "the probability of the marble being black is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1".
If you were to ask me for fair odds, I'd be forced to offer 50/50, but that's a different question.
Yes, I know it looks strange, but 50%-50% means exactly this: this evidence adds no information at all, so there is no reason to prefer an hypothesis over the other one (given this single piece of evidence). And once you factor in the 1:1 odds...
Y'all that speak statistics please correct if mistaken (when I got involved with work that utilized statistical stuff, a wonderful software package on a floppy disk called Statpacgold did all the math) but it seems to me that the whole 50/50...
Was it just me or was that just more confused and confusing than anything else?
random thoughts and paraphrasing below:
Avi was tasked by the government to investigate the videos that are being released by the government, but we are actually...
Y'all that speak statistics please correct if mistaken (when I got involved with work that utilized statistical stuff, a wonderful software package on a floppy disk called Statpacgold did all the math) but it seems to me that the whole 50/50...